This series is one of the hardest hitting in the NFL and they ALWAYS play close games. The L/7 regular season meetings have been decided by 6, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3 and 3. LY the road team won both games in upsets but PIT did win by 7 at home in the playoffs. BAL is 19-5 at home. Despite the two teams tying for 1st LY PIT was #14 on off and #2 on def despite a lot of starts lost to injuries and suspension. BAL was a pedestrian #22 off and #10 def and is getting long in the tooth. In LY’s 3 meetings PIT had an avg 253-238 yd edge but held RB Rice to 20 (2.5), 32 (3.6) and 32 (2.7) yds rushing. PIT has a huge edge with their OLB’s vs a BAL OL with recently signed McKinnie (from MIN) at LT and Oher shifted to RT. PIT has better speed on both sides of the ball and I’ll call for the Steelers to win for a 2nd straight year in M&T Bank Stadium.

The Falcons were the #1 seed in the NFC LY and the Bears were #2 but CHI made it to the NFC title game and ATL lost in the Div round with both eliminated by GB. I look for the Bears to drop off this year (Ctr Kreutz is gone) and actually miss the playoffs but I also think the Falcons are a little overrated. ATL will be without Ctr McClure (144 consec starts) and will have a 2nd year player in his 1st start. They last met in 2009 and Cutler was int’d at the ATL9 at the end on the road (14-21, +3). No doubt ATL has the edge at QB and WR but CHI has the edge on defense and is at home. CHI is 18-8 at home and the grass will slow down ATL’s WR’s. With a road trip to NO and GB on deck CHI cannot afford to open with a loss and did beat GB, MIN, PHI and the Jets at home LY.

The story here is Colts QB Peyton Manning will not be starting for the first time in his NFL career and Kerry Collins will be the first QB since current 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh not named Manning to start behind center (1997) for the Colts. LY the Texans opened vs a team they had only beaten once in 16 tries. RB Foster (expected to miss - hamstring) rushed for a team record 231 yds and HOU led by as many as 17 and won at home 34-24. HOU finished just 6-10 and incl a 30-17 loss at IND and the Colts won the South again. Indy had been 20-4 on the road prior to LY and figures to play closer to that past level in 2011. HOU will be employing a new 3-4 defense under Wade Phillips here with 5 new starters on that side. I’ll call for the home team by 1 in a lower scoring game.

CLE is 1-11 in openers since their return. CIN has a young QB making his first road start (Dalton). CIN was the better team statistically LY (#20, #15 vs #29, #22) and CIN outgained the Browns by 118 and 119. Despite the FA losses CIN comes up as my most underrated team in the NFL this year. Add it all up I still think the Browns are the stronger team and at home call for a win by a FG.

The Giants have won 5 in a row when visiting here and the Skins were just 2-6 at home LY. These two played in the final game of 2010 right here and the Giants came in with playoff hopes and led 17-7 but GB beat CHI which eliminated the NYG were and only won 17-14. That was the closest of the Skins’ 5 losses at home in the series. The Giants have one of the NFL’s best pass rushes and take on a WAS OL that will have a new Ctr and RG. Shanahan refuses to name a QB starter until gametime but Beck hasn’t started since his 2007 rookie season. Grossman started the L3 games for WAS LY avg 280 ypg (56%) w/a 7-4 ratio. In their 5 road wins LY the Giants won by an avg of 17 ppg. The Giants have the edge in the trenches and with a better set of skills players with a manageable line, they win comfortably.

The HT has won 4 in a row with SEA winning LY’s opener in Pete Carroll’s 1st game back. Carroll is 1-2 vs Harbaugh from the USC/Stanford duels which became personal. SEA made the playoffs LY and knocked off the depleted Saints in the playoffs. They did it with special teams (#1 LY) and mirrors as they had just the #28 off and #27 def and now have a young QB vs the veteran Hasselback of LY. SF was #24 and #13 but finished just 6-10. Harbaugh is reinstalling the West Coast offense and was put behind by the lockout with QB Smith only getting 36 preseason pass att’s. SEA has always been much tougher at home than on the road and LY they outscored teams at home but on the road lost by an avg of 30-18. LY SF was +50 ypg at home and -64 ypg on the road. I like the changes at SF and they were the overwhelming favorite to win the NFC West LY and figure to get started on a winning note this year. LY SEA had an energetic 1st year HC in his home opener and now the Niners have that edge with the KO rules neutralizing SEA’s special teams.