The Bears beat the Saints 27-24 in ‘08. NO went to the wire in their losing effort to GB LW and they have extra time to adjust to not having WR’s Moore (groin) or Colston (collarbone) here. NO went 5-3 at home LY. They showed they were just as potent as ever with a 78 yd edge vs GB on the road. Now they are at home vs a CHI offense that doesn’t have the same quick strike ability as GB. LW vs ATL the Bears converted 3 TO’s into 14 pts and while they gave up yds to Ryan (319) they forced him to put it up 47 times logging 5 sks and 6 QBH. Cutler was very sharp with 312 yds (69%) with a 2-1 ratio. The OL gave up 5 sks and 11 QBH and took a hit with RG Louis (ankle) getting hurt and career C Spencer from SEA may get the start here. Playing on turf will help CHI’s speed but Saints C Kreutz was CHI’s C for 13 years and will help with the playcalls here.

KC is in a poor spot after getting crushed in their home opener and have a road game vs SD on deck. This is DET’s only HG in the 1st 4 Wks and their crowd edge will be a big boost to the DL. They now get a wounded QB at home and the focus will be if the DL can contain KC’s ground game. KC RB’s Charles and Jones combined for 59 yds rushing (4.9) vs LY’s #32 rush defense. KC was held to 2 FD’s and 60 yds in the 2H as they were held to 20 yds or less on 11 drives in the game. Without the play action, Cassel was held to 119 yds (61%) 1-1 with 32 yds in the 2H. DET allowed 28 yds (2.5) to the RB’s on LY’s #8 rush offense on the road LW. Stafford dominated with 305 yds (73%) with a 3-1 ratio. He’s also seen a Crennel defense before putting 422 yds (61%) with a 5-2 mark on CLE in a 38-37 win in 2009. KC isn’t as bad as they looked LW but DET is better than LW’s score (+118 yds, almost 10 min TOP edge). I’ll call for the Lions by 10.

JAX spent a lot of money in FA on defense to “win now” but opted for Luke McCown who had 4 starts prior to TEN LW in his career. JAX kept it conservative with McCown (175 yds 71%) not asking him to do much (7.3 ypa) and putting the ball in the hands of Jones-Drew (97 yds 4.0). JAX had a 13-0 lead late in the 3Q but LY’s #28 defense allowed an 80 yd TD pass followed with a 80/12pl 4Q drive. On 4 drives to the TEN 30 the Jags came away with 1 TD and 3 FG’s and despite a 19:16 TOP edge were only +31 yds. McCown is now being tasked to go on the road vs one of the biggest blitzing teams in the NFL. The Jets will be able to leave Revis/Cromartie in man to man here as JAX doesn’t have an intimidating receiver package. This will allow them to creep the safeties to reinforce LB’s Harris and Scott to shut down Jones-Drew as the Jets get the win.

The Bills have a huge situational edge at home vs OAK off a MNF road game vs DEN, travelling to the EST with a home game vs NYJ on deck. OAK went 2-8 vs NDIV foes LY with a more pedestrian 122 ypg rush (4.6) avg (213 5.4 vs DIV). The big question for the Bills will be if their defense which gave up 170 ypg (4.8) rushing LY (#32) can contain LY’s #2 rush offense (156 ypg 5.0). BUF crushed the Chiefs LW 41-7 and held Charles/Jones to 59 yds rushing (4.9). They executed very well and on 5 drives that started on the KC side they scored 3 TD’s, 1 FG and had 1 punt. BUF isn’t as good as they showed last week but they have tons of intangible edges here. I’ll take the home team with a QB that knows the Gailey system vs an OAK team travelling on a short week.

ARZ had a favorable situation LW at home vs a rookie QB in his 1st career start. While ARZ got the win they gave up a whopping 422 yds to Cam Newton. They needed a 70 yd TD pass and an 89 yd PR in the 4Q to get the win. The Redskins had a better than expected game by Grossman with 305 yds (62%) with 2 TD’s vs NYG. While the ypc wasn’t impressive (2.8) they did keep running the ball (26 att’s) to force balance in the game. WAS gave up 315 yds LW they held the Giants to just 1 of 10 on 3rd Dns, with just 75 yds (3.8) vs a formidable RB tandem. WAS has the situational edge at home for the 2nd straight week vs a team that is travelling. WAS is the “forgotten NFC East team” and while they don’t have a “high Q” rating they will get some insight from RB Hightower on the offense and have a scouting edge on Kolb from his time with PHI.

HC Munchak is very familiar with the Ravens having coached against them under Fisher. TEN appeared to catch a break LW vs JAX’s #2 QB who only had 18 pass att’s in preseason (Gabbert 70), all’d McCown and the Jags to jump out to a 13-0 lead in the 3Q before the offense was able to get it going in the 16-14 loss. Hasselbeck had an efficient outing throwing for 263 yds (62%) and he had a few passes dropped. On the other side the Ravens put forth one of the more impressive performances of week 1 forcing a team-record seven TO’s as they routed the defending AFC champ Steelers 35-7 (the most lopsided victory in series history). QB Flacco was sharp throwing for 224 yds (59%) and 3 TD’s while Rice added 107 rush (5.6). The Ravens look to be on a mission TY after playoff disappointments the L3Y. I’ll call for them to keep the momentum and take advantage of a TEN team that lacks explosiveness outside of RB Johnson and were hurt by the lockout.

SEA is arguably in the worst situational spot of the week off a road loss vs SF, having to travel cross country vs PIT with a HG vs ARZ on deck. This is PIT’s only HG for the 1st 4 Wks with a Peytonless IND team on deck. PIT has seen SEA OC Bevell’s before in a 27-14 win in 2009 vs a better QB (Favre) with much better supporting cast. PIT was outgained 386-259 but made 4 sks and forced 2 4Q TO’s for TD’s. SEA was outgained 427-289 by NDIV foes in 2010 and are a weaker team than LY. PIT outgained NDIV foes 421-327 w/ Roethlisberger LY with a 366-245 yd edge at home also. PIT gave BAL a lot of lockerroom material in the offseason and paid for it with their 2nd 28 pt loss since 1990. PIT turned the ball over 7 times setting up 20 pts for the Ravens. They also allowed a 100 yd rusher for just the 2nd time in 51 games. Look for the Steelers to vent a lot of frustration on a SEA team that had 3 FD’s and 37 yds at the half LW who may not have OG Gallery or WR Rice again.

The Packers have virtually every edge imaginable vs the Panthers. Rodgers showed no rust with 312 yds (77%) 3-0 ratio vs LY’s #4 defense. GB did give up a huge chunk of yds to NO LW (477) but that was vs one of the top 5 QB’s in the NFL. They won’t take CAR lightly esp after Newton showed off all of his physical skills LW vs ARZ with 422 yds (65%) with a 2-1 ratio. DC Capers gets a little extra time to figure out how to contain Newton and force him to make mistakes vs GB’s coverages. Newton may have had the best game by a Wk 1 rookie QB ever but that was vs ARZ with a new DC and a thin secondary. Stewart and Williams only had 56 yds rushing combined LW and CAR will look to get more out of them here as they can’t count on another big week by Newton. GB is clearly the superior team but they do have a road game vs CHI on deck.

TB beat MIN 19-13 in the last meeting in 2008. The lack of work in the offseason was clear for TB who were very lucky to be down 20-10 vs DET at the end of the 1H. TB’s pts were set up by a 78 yd KR and a 28 yd int return for a TD off a tipped pass. DET had 16-7 FD and 324-108 yd edges and at the 2 min warning TB had run 14 offensive plays in the 1H. TB simply couldn’t get the ground game going as TB’s QB’s had half of their 56 yds rushing (3.5). TB’s young DL didn’t get near Stafford logging 0 sks/0 QBH. McNabb had a decent game vs TB in a 17-16 loss w/ WAS with 228 yds (63%) with 2 TD’s. He was ineffective vs LY’s #1 defense with 39 yds (47%) w/a 1-1 ratio. MIN was throttled statistically overall (407-187) vs SD but were in the game until the late 4Q. They will have a loud crowd edge here to help a defense that plays better on turf and I’ll take the home team here.

IND was mauled by the Texans in the 1H LW being outFD 19-5 and outgained 259-72 while giving up a 79 yd PR for a TD. IND’s only score came after HOU fmbl’d on their own 27 in the mid-4Q. IND converted 1 of 9 3rd Dns and gave up 167 yds rushing (4.1) to HOU w/o Foster. CLE looked like the inexperienced young team changing systems that they are as they committed 7 penalties in the 1Q to setup 13 pts for CIN. They then blew their 5th 4Q lead in 17 games with CB Haden missing an assignment before CLE gave up a 38 yd TD run to seal it. CLE is well suited for this game as without Manning to pull the trigger and Collins (197 yds 52% 1 TD) only having 25 days with the team their skill players are no where near as dangerous. CLE RB Hillis is more than capable of pounding the ball to help control the tempo. IND is the veteran team, entrenched in its systems vs a CLE team is is young but until Collins shows me that he knows the system, I’ll call for the Browns by 1.

One of the marquee rivalries of the 80’s and 90’s, these two franchises have just two playoff wins between them since 1999. SF has a big situational edge at home for the 2nd week to start the season. DAL is logging a lot of miles to start the season having to travel to the Jets LW and now goes to the West Coast. LW SF jumped out to a 16-0 HT lead over SEA and after the Seahawks cut it to 19-17 in the 4Q, Ted Ginn ret’d the ensuing KO 102 yds for a TD and then added a 55-yd PR TD to seal it. QB Smith only had 124 yds passing but completed 75% of his passes and had 0 TO’s. While the Cowboys blew a 2 td 4Q lead for the first time in franchise history last week (were 243-0),DAL has a big edge at QB with Romo over Smith, deeper receiving threats and just one year after failing to live up to the preseason hype, the Cowboys are a undervalued this year with basically the same talent as LY’s team.

Both teams played the preseason favorite to win their division. HOU got their second straight opening win but this time vs a Manningless Colts team while MIA is off NE on MNF. A scheduling oddity has made these two teams familiar having played annually from ‘06-’09 with HOU winning all 4 but only covering 2 as 3 of the 4 were decided by a total of 6 points. The Schaub/Johnson combo picked up right were they left off and RB Tate (116 yds 4.8) replaced an injured Foster which now forces the defense to prep for another weapon. Schaub also excelled on the road throwing for more ypg (304 vs 242), a better % (64.2 vs 62.9) and a better ratio (14-5 vs 10-7). MIA is a "chic" here with HOU off its huge win, getting the media feed as the AFC South is theirs for the taking. MIA had the #6 defense LY, Henne has a better OL to help him out and practices vs the 3-4 each week and I'll go with the upset here.

NE beat SD LY 23-20 on the road. SD had a 363-179 yd edge but were down 20-3 mid-3Q due to 4 TO’s in the 1H. SD rallied with 17 4Q pts but missed a 50 yd FG with 23 seconds failing to go to OT. Brady only had 159 yds passing (59%) as 8 of 11 drives started on their 40 or better. NE went 9-1 vs top 10 defenses LY with the only loss in Wk 2 vs NYJ. SD again scared their fans in the opener as they trailed 17-7 at HT. It was a game they dominated statically finishing with 31-10 FD and 407-187 yd edges but allowed an opening kickoff return and 51/3pl d TD drive. NE’s downfall had been their D which finished #25 LY. The Patriots allowed 27+ points 6 times last season incl the playoff’s and they lost 3 of those. SD’s travel disadvantage is negated by NE’s short week but it's tough to go against a QB that is off a 500-yd passing game and is nearly unbeatable at home.

The Broncos beat CIN 12-7 to open the 2009 season. CIN went ahead 7-6 with 38 seconds left on a 1 yd run by Benson. DEN scored an 87 yd TD off a ball tipped by a CIN defender to pull ahead with :11 left. DEN is off LW’s MNF game vs OAK and those results are unknown. They do have a situational edge for being home for the 2nd straight week to open the season vs CIN on the road again. Cincy jumped out to a 13-0 lead vs CLE thanks to 7 penalties and CLE adjusting to its new schemes. Dalton looked good in the 1H (81 yds 67% 1-0) but hurt his right wrist. Gradkowski (92 yds 42% 1 TD) struggled to move the team in the 2H as 14 of CIN’s pts came off CLE’s mental errors. While also moving to a 4-3 defense, DEN has a better secondary at this point than CLE, has a more established veteran core and Fox will also have a better pass rush with Dumervil and Ayers.