Week 4 Top 25 Forecasts

Mizzou hasn’t won in Norman S/’66 dropping 17 str trips. Oklahoma is playing with legitimate revenge as they had 3 trips inside the MO15 result in 0 pts and allowed a KR TD as ESPN Gameday was on hand for the night game that sent the #1 team down. LW OU proved their mettle at #5 FSU by shaking off a 56 yd TD pass which tied the gm with 9:32 left and promptly driving 83/8pl for a TD and adding an insurance FG with 2:01 left to beat the Seminoles. QB Jones (287 ypg, 72%, 2-2) has a weapon in the nation’s #2 rec Broyles (21 rec) but an improved run gm has been the difference spearheaded by walk-on Whaley (202, 5.2). Aggressive Sooners D has 9 sks and has forced 6 TO’s in 2 gms. MO a school record 744-44 yd and 30-1 FD edges in their 69-0 annihilation of FCS W IL. 3rd string TB (1st 2 out) Josey ran for 263 yd (18.8) in the 1H as the Tigers roared out to a 42-0 HT lead. DE Jacquies Smith (out L/2 with elbow inj) may return TW. OU has big edges (#3-28 off, #3-22 D and #12-51 ST) all around and I think the Sooners get their revenge in relatively easy fashion.

LY’s 1st ever meeting was just the 2nd time in school history that WV had played in front of 90,000+ people. QB Geno Smith was making just his 2nd road start and they almost got the upset losing 20-14 with a 14-12 FD edge. WV had a 139-55 yd edge at the half but trailed 17-7 due to a PR TD and a 7 yd td drive after a fumble. WV has won 18 str non-conf HG’s (L/loss vs #3 VT in ‘05). LSU’s D did hold WV to 4 plays or less in 10 of 13 poss but now faces a new offense with Holgorson at the controls. LW WV jumped out to a 34-10 3Q lead at MD before holding on in a 37-31 win as they possibly started looking ahead. LSU does have a couple extra days to prepare coming off an impressive Thurs Night 19-6 win at MSU with a 361-193 yd edge. The key matchup will be WV QB Smith who is avg 336 ypg (69%) with a 7-1 ratio vs one of the best secondaries in the country. This is LSU’s 3rd road gm in 4 wks but they are used to playing in big games (3rd ranked opp already TY) and will come away with a key non-conf road win.

Ark is 1-5 S/’99 in Tuscaloosa and in their L/trip lost 35-7 being outgained 425-254. Ark has dropped 4 str gms by an avg of 18 ppg vs Bama and the Crimson Tide have won 19 str SEC openers. LY Bama was down 20-7 mid-3Q but the Tide D had 3 int’s (1 in the EZ and 2 came in the 4Q on Ark’s L/2 drives). This is QB Wilson’s 1st road start but he did play 3Q’s at Aub LY and did well. TY he is avg 274 ypg (69%) with a 5-2 ratio. Ark is off to a 3-0 start (first time in B2B ssns S/’88-’89) but is taking a huge leap in competition here after playing 3 non-BCS tms. Bama’s D has been as good as advertised not allowing a legitimate TD drive yet this season thru 3 gms (K-St “3 yd drive” after int, PSU garbage td). RB Richardson’s Heisman campaign got a boost LW with a career-high 167 rush yds (15.1) and 3 td’s while QB McCarron is settling in as the starter avg 193 ypg (64%) with a 2-2 ratio. Key matchup is Bama’s #1 OL/DL in SEC vs Ark’s #8 OL/DL (had to replace 3 3Y st’rs TY on OL). Bama controls the LOS and it’s Roll Tide here.

TU is 0-5 vs BSU with the L/3 decided by a TD or less and the Broncos have won 9 str home openers by 36 ppg. LW TU’s start was delayed until 12:16 am but 24,563 hung around to see TU put up 482 ttl yds (incl 365 rush) but fall 59-33 to OKSt. Watts (159) and Douglas (173) both went over the 100 rush yd mark, the 1st time TU has had 2 over 100 S/’06. TU was outFD’d 32-27, outgained 543-482 and lost QB Kinne to a knee inj early. RFr Henderson hit 6-20-104 with a 2-3 ratio and if he’s forced to go, faces an extremely tough environment in his 1st start. BSU does have a big revenge gm vs Nev on deck while TU hosts N Texas. BSU went into Toledo LW hoping to get its run gm back on track (129 yds vs UGA) but they only had 26 rush 1H yds (145 ttl). BSU had 32-21 FD, 610-349 yd edges and beat UT 40-15. QB Moore (#4 NCAA pass eff, pass ypg) avg 358 ypg (79%) with an 8-2 ratio. His top target is Doug Martin (147, 18.4, 1) who is also the top rusher (127, 3.0, 1). The Hurricane are on their 3rd away game and 3rd Top 10 tm in 4 weeks and face a momentous challenge without their top weapon, WR Johnson, and possibly their QB.

Teams have met just once prior, a 48-7 Wisconsin win in 1975. The Coyotes played 2 FBS opponents last year, their first since moving up from Div-II in 2008. They lost the opener to UCF 38-7 being outgained 472-220 but then shocked Minnesota 41-38 only being outgained 462-447. This year they lost the opener to Air Force 37-20 only being outgained 487-410. In 2008 Wisconsin escaped with a 36-35 win in OT over Great West Conference Member Cal Poly, thanks to the Mustangs missing 2 XP’s. Since then the Badgers have paid attention to their FCS foes beating Wofford 44-14 in 2009 and blowing out Austin Peay 70-3 last year with a 618-157 yd edge. While South Dakota returns 18 starters from the team that beat Minnesota that same team won just 3 other games last year finishing 4-7. Wisconsin is off a blow out of Northern Illinois and does have their Big 10 opener vs Nebraska on deck. Still the Badgers should be able to build a big lead early even if they rest players in the 2nd half.

LY in a wild Thurs Night gm A&M led 21-7 at HT but 5 costly TO’s did them in incl a 63 yd FR TD early 4Q. With :16 left A&M tossed an int at the O32 which was ret’d 28 yds setting up OSU’s 40 yd GW FG as time exp and A&M had a 535-341 yd edge. With LY’s win over A&M, OSU has won a series high 3 str gms. OSU is on its 2nd str AG after LW’s crazy weather delayed gm which didn’t end until 3:35 am CT (started 12:16 am) and this is by far A&M’s biggest gm of the month. OSU’s turning point vs Tulsa came on the 3rd series as TU QB Kinne was KO’d with a knee inj after hit OOB and HC Blankenship said it took the Hurricane out of their off gm plan which was to use Kinne’s mobility. His replacement Henderson fmbl’d 3x in the next 2 series and hit 6-20 for 104 with a 2-3 ratio as the Cowboys built up a 45-6 3Q lead before emptying the benches. A&M dominated Idaho 37-7 with 31-10 FD and 517-187 yd edges as the Vandals compiled 104 ydS and 5 FD on their final 2 garbage time drives, scoring a TD on 4&1 with 2:55 left. The offenses are close (OSU #1-5) but A&M has a large defensive edge (#15-53) and of course the 12th Man home edge.

Last met in ‘94. Since ‘04 WY is 2-1 hosting BCS tms and in ‘09 led Texas 10-6 late 2Q before the Longhorns pulled away in the 2H. Neb is off Wash and has its first B10 AG at #7 Wisky on deck. NU was only up by 3 at HT LW but QB Martinez needed just 10 2H pass yds to propel them to a 51-38 win (NU 22-20 FD, 464-420 yd edges) over Wash. Martinez is avg 163 ypg (48%) with a 3-2 ratio and leads with 384 rush yd (7.5, 6 TD). The #2 rusher, Burkhead, has 250 (5.2) with 5 TD’s. WY is off a road trip to BG but has bye on deck. The Pokes D forced 6 TO’s LW and despite being outFD’d 28-18 and outgained 514-396, WY blk’d BG’s PAT with :03 left and pulled the upset 28-27. True frosh QB Smith is avg 266 ypg (62%) with a 5-3 ratio and has 5 rec’s over 100 yds. The top rusher is Muhammad with only 198 (7.6, 2 TD). WY is 3-0 for the 1st time S/’96 and does have the altitude edge but Neb fans travel well and NU has huge edges all around. The Huskers have scored 40+ in their 1st 3 (1st time that’s happened S/’95) and should take care of business.

The Ducks journey to Tucson with renewed confidence after B2B routs over Nevada and Missouri St (642 ypg L2W) and are 15-5 vs AZ. The Wildcats are in the middle of a tough 5 gm stretch off Okla St and Stanford (all’d 581 ypg L2W) with USC and Oregon St on deck. The AZ running gm (56 ypg, 2.6) and pass protection (7 sks all’d) have been the issue as QB Foles has performed well avg 350 ypg (75%) with a 7-0 ratio. The Ducks won 44-41 (2OT) in their last trip to Tucson as UO went 80/15pl scoring on an 8 yd TD pass w/:06 to force OT winning on a 1 yd TD run on 3&gl. LY AZ went into Autzen and never trailed in the 1H. The Ducks controlled the 2H and won 48-29. UO has a bye on deck and have been focusing a good amount of attention on this matchup for a good 2 wks all’g them to take a victory in the desert.

The HT is 8-1 and FSU has dropped 4 str here by 15 ppg. LY CU led 10-3 at HT but needed a 29 yd FG drive to tie 13-13 w/:53. FSU went 34/7pl and got a 55 yd FG as time exp. Manuel started at QB LY but FSU did not open up the offense until the 2H. FSU’s numbers TY are somewhat skewed as they took on 2 inferior opp’s before their huge HG vs #1 Oklahoma. In front of a record sellout crowd FSU battled to tie it at 13-13 in the 4Q but OU proved too much as the Noles lost 23-13. FSU suffered a rash of injuries incl Manuel being knocked out late in 3Q. CU is off a big 38-24 win vs the defending champs but this is their “A” game for Sept. After trailing 21-7 1Q CU’s offense came to life outscoring AU 31-3 and rolling up 624 yds ending the nation’s longest win streak. Clemson has been a 2H team in the 1st 3 gms but QB Boyd looks to have grasped the system (304 ypg, 67%, 10-1). RB Ellington was injured late LW but CU has plenty of youth stepping up incl Fr WR Watkins who has 292 yd (13.9) and 4 TD. FSU has been outgained in 7 of the L/9 in this series and after their emotional loss last week may not have enough left in the tank.

LY the gm was tied 7-7 at HT but SC’s defense locked down in the 2H allowing just 70 yds as Vandy did not cross midfield until its last off play (SOD at SC48). SC RB Lattimore missed the gm with an ankle inj and RB Maddox rushed for a career-high 146 yds. SC only had 169 yds in the 1H but 315 yds and 14 pts in the 2H as they won 21-7. The Commodores are off to a 3-0 start under new HC Franklin and LW dominated Ole Miss 30-7 with a 387-234 yd edge. QB Smith is avg 123 ypg (54%) with a 3-2 ratio. Last week Navy gave South Carolina all they could handle before losing 24-21. Lattimore was the star though running for a career-high 246 yds (6.6) and 3 TD’s. SC has huge edges on off (#21-92) and def (#14-47) and will be motivated to atone for LW’s near loss and Vandy’s 3-0 record will no doubt have their attention.

Marshall has lost 12 str vs ranked opp’s by 26 ppg. The Hokies haven’t been to Huntington S/’40 (last loss in series). VT won the 3 most recent gms (‘02, ‘05 and ‘09) by an avg score of 47-15. MU is off an embarrassing loss to Ohio 44-7 were true Fr Cato struggled (43% 116 yds 1-4 ratio). VT is 3-0 but struggled vs CUSA EC in their only road gm (trailed at HT). VT does have bigger tests on deck but is on a solid 18-4 run. MU has been very inconsistent thus far and with an inexp’d QB vs a Bud Foster D, that doesn’t bold well for the Herd.

UF has now won 24 in a row over UK with the last 3 by a combined score of 152-26 including a 73-0 margin in the opening 15:00. LY Trey Burton broke Tim Tebow’s record scoring 6 TD’s in a 48-14 win. UK has struggled all season being outgained in each of their 3 games and LW lost 24-17 for the first time in 5 meetings vs in-state rival UL. On the other side UF is now 3-0 for the 7th consec ssn after their 33-23 win over rival Tenn LW despite being flagged for 16 pen for 150 yds (8 FD’s). QB Brantley has adjusted well to OC Weis’ pro-style attack avg 212 ypg (65%) with a 3-2 ratio while RB Rainey continued his tremendous ssn to date LW with 108 rush/104 rec and a blk’d punt. This is UF's road opener and they are in a UT/Bama sandwich making this game closer than the last 3 meetings.

Old SWC rivals who played every yr from ‘45-’95. BU has won 5 str over Rice by an avg 19 ppg. LY on a rain soaked field the Bears trailed 3-0 but won 30-13 on the road with Griffin hitting 20-28 for 268 yds. The Bears have won 7 str at home vs non-conf/non-BCS opp’s (avg 42-12). BU scored on 8 of 9 poss in a weather shortened win over Sam Houston St in which the Bears had 25-10 FD and 545-207 yd edges. After jumping out to a 31-0 lead, the gm was halted for 41 mins due to lightning and the tms agreed to skip HT and play for just 12:00 in the 3 and 4Q’s but with 2:58 left in the 3Q the gm was called. Heisman candidate QB Griffin (312 ypg, 84%, 8-0, 116 rush yd) is #1 FBS pass eff. Rice is off a bye after their thrilling 24-22 win over Purdue in which they blk’d a 31 yd FG att on the gm’s last play to preserve their 1st win over a B10 tm since ‘97. The week off should be beneficial for banged up top offensive weapon RB McGuffie who had just 67 ttl yds in limited action in the 1st 2. Rice has a big ST edge (#2-114) but Bears have the huge off edge (#9-78) and now take on the Owls #99 D.

First meeting. While HC at EC Holtz went 2-0 vs UTEP w/the avg score 49-32. UTEP has lost 37 str when traveling to a current BCS school w/an avg score of 45-11 (last win was at Ariz St in ‘74). USF is off HG’s vs Ball St and Florida A&M while UTEP is in its 3rd str road game and off rival NMSt (only happened twice S/’93 and they lost both). USF does have a big Thurs gm at Pitt on deck but UTEP also has a Thurs gm vs UH on deck. QB Jay Hall got his first career start LW (32%, 124 yds, 0-1) as Lamaison has an inj’d shoulder but was labeled the “QB of the future.” UTEP is 0-4 vs recent BCS tms being outscored by 38 ppg. USF is on an 8-2 run and should continue its winning ways vs a tm with a QB making his first road start vs a BCS def.

First Meeting. Portland St is in their 2nd season of the Pistol offense under HC Nigel Burton, who was the DC at Nevada, after running the pass happy Run & Shoot under former HC Jerry Glanville. The Vikings are 2-16 vs FBS teams since 1997 with their last win coming over New Mexico 17-6 in 2006. Since then they have lost 6 straight by an average 48-10 including 2 losses last year, 54-9 to Arizona St and 69-0 to Oregon. Usually you look at the FBS team in these match-ups being in a sandwich game but PSU is off a 31-29 upset of Northern Arizona in the conference opener. They have Idaho St on deck and could open 2-0 in conference play. TCU is having a crazy season, after losing a shootout to Baylor 50-48 in their opener they seemed to right the ship with a 35-19 win over Air Force. Shockingly they then trailed ULM 17-14 in the 1Q before scoring 24 answered points. That slow start last week could actually work to their advantage as HC Gary Patterson after a spirited half time “talk” to his team last week will be able to have his team focussed from the start of start against an FCS foe.

Mich HC Hoke was the HC at SDSt the L/2Y and took with him OC Borges while his DC Long (offered a UM job) is now the HC at SDSt. Hoke ruffled some feathers by telling the players he was leaving via text message and saying he’d walk from San Diego for the Michigan job. In the only prior meeting in ‘04 UM won, 24-21. UM only had EM LW and has Minny on deck. Vs the Eagles, UM was only up 13-3 at HT but pulled away early 3Q, finishing with 24-12 FD and 471-236 yd edges in a 31-3 win. QB Robinson avg 177 ypg pass (49%, 6-4 ratio) but leads with 352 rush yd (7.0) which is more than double that of the #2 rusher. The top rec is Hemingway who avg an incredible 50.5 (1 TD) on his 4 rec. LW SDSt faced its first pass-happy off of the yr and battled back from a 10 pt early 3Q deficit to win 42-24 vs Wash St in front of a record home crowd (SDSt 25-19 FD, 500-419 yd edges). The win put SDSt 3-0 for the 1st time S/’81 and snapped a 22 gm losing streak to BCS tms. QB Lindley went over the 10,000 career pass mark and is now avg 207 ypg (54%) with a 7-1 ratio. RB Hillman, who is flying under most radars, leads with 497 rush yds (#2 NCAA) and all 8 of SDSt’s rush TD’s. Former CB Lockett has crept onto the scene with 254 rec yd (21.2). You’ve got an angry bunch of Aztecs but Michigan has an enormous edge as Hoke and Borges know these SDSt players inside and out.

Arizona St has dropped 11 straight to the Trojans. LY ASU scored a TD w/6:59 left but had the PAT blk’d and ret’d for 2 (up 2 instead of 5), USC went on to kick the GW FG as ASU’s L/2 drives ended on a missed 42 yd FG and an int. Last time here USC escaped with a 14-9 win despite being outFD’d 23-12 and outgained 347-258 as the gm featured 18 pen (173 yds). USC QB Barkley had 5 TD’s passing (5 diff rec’s) LW vs Syr as they rolled to a 21 pt win (501-331 yd edge). For a second straight week ASU nearly pulled out a close matchup as they led Illinois early in the 4Q but were unable to deliver at the end in the 3 point loss. Something will have to give here as USC is 13-1 in their first road game while the Sun Devils have performed well in conference home openers and have nearly pullled out upsets over USC recently.

UI is 8-3 hosting non-conf FBS schools. WM is 0-2 in Champaign but in their last meeting (‘08) in Detroit WM won 23-17! LTH (‘04), WM led 27-23 late 4Q before allowing a 40 yd KR that set up UI’s 40/6pl GW TD drive w/1:02 left. Illinois is off the 17-14 upset of #22 Ariz St, their 1st win over a ranked team since 2007. They also have their Big Ten opener on deck against in-state rival Northwestern. WM is off a 44-14 win over CM, breaking a 5 game losing streak to their rival. While Illinois has a slight edge on offense (#50-62) they have a big edge on defense (#27-79) and have not forgotten their ‘08 loss to the Broncos.

LY’s gm had 6 lead changes as GT trailed 24-17 late 3Q but went on 3 str scoring drives (last off a NC fmbl). NC hasn’t won in Atlanta S/’97 dropping 6 str trips (4 by a TD or less). LTH NC was down 17-0 into the 4Q gaining just 154 yds (ssn low). This is GT’s conf opener and 1st real challenge after an easy opening sked. LW GT avenged their ‘10 loss crushing KU 66-24 rolling up a school record 768 yds incl 604 rushing (broke rec’d ‘78). NC is off a 3 gm home stand and a 28-17 win over UVA LW. QB Renner is avg 231 ypg (81%) and his fav target is WR D Jones 336 (16.8). NC has one of the stronger front 7 in the ACC and is all’g 77 ypg (2.3) on the ground with 10 sks. TY NC doesn’t have the bye to prepare for the option but last year was playing without 12 suspended players and will want to atone for allowing 372 rush yds last year. This will be close.