This is the first meeting between the schools and the first appearance for both in this game. The Falcons are back in the post season after a 2 year absence and this will be HC Dave Clawson’s 2nd bowl appearance as BG lost a heartbreaker to WAC member Idaho, 43-42, in the Humanitarian Bowl in his inaugural campaign. After winning 10 games for the first time since ‘87 the #24 Spartans are going bowling for the first time since ‘06 when they upset NM 20-12 in front of their home fans in the New Mexico Bowl. MacIntyre proved to be a hot commodity in coaching circles and accepted the Colorado job, leaving DC Baer as the interim here. Baer has been in this situation before when he served as the interim HC for Notre Dame’s 38-21 loss to Oregon St in the ‘04 Insight Bowl. SJSt has never played a bowl game east of the Mississippi or in potential cold weather. BG was 1-4 vs bowl teams this year getting outscored 27-16 and outgained 376-334. The Spartans were 4-2 vs bowl teams this year outscoring them 28-27 and outgaining them 415-393 while playing a tougher schedule than BG (#79-121).

The Falcons have my #100 offense avg 23 ppg and 374 ypg. Now in his 3rd year as the starter, Jr QB Schilz struggled after an impressive ‘11 season which saw him throw for 3,024 yards (60%) and 28 td’s. With his regression the Falcons decided to focus more on the run and Samuel led BG in rushing for a 2nd consecutive season and he finds himself just 34 yards away from the 1,000 yard mark. WR’s Gallon and Joplin have pulled in 10 of the team’s 16 td rec’s and each tallied 600+ yards. The OL (6’3” 299) paved the way for 157 rush ypg (4.5) while allowing just 13 sacks (3.2%). The BG defense was a big reason that they find themselves in the post season as they finished with my #31 ranking allowing just 16 ppg (#9 FBS) and 290 ypg (#7 FBS). The DL (6’2” 268) was led by MAC DPOY Chris Jones who led the conference in sacks and finished 2nd in tfl. The DL allowed opponents to rush for 117 ypg (3.6) while recording 24 of the team’s 37 sacks (65%). LB’s Gabe Martin, Dwayne Woods and Paul Swan finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the team in tackles while the Falcons were #28 in my pass eff def allowing 173 ypg (56%) and an impressive 9-10 ratio. The ST finished in the middle of the pack (#57) in my rankings. KR Booboo Gates was unable to relive his stellar season of ‘11 when he had a 25.8 avg (88 yard td). BG is also just 7-15 on FG att’s this year, a far cry from the success their counterpart have had.

In the Spartans 10 wins this year they were dominant outgaining foes by 121 ypg and outscoring them by 19 ppg, in fact only twice did they fail to win by more than double-digits. Impressively, their 2 losses came to teams with a combined 20-4 record and they were outgained by just 3 ypg in those games. HC MacIntyre clearly elevated the Spartans to new heights this year (1-12 to 5-7 to 10-2) but some of the success has to do with ZERO starts lost to injury on offense. QB Fales had six 300+ games and over the final 7 avg he avg’d 343 ypg (70.2%) with a 22-6 ratio. The running game was not special but took a lot of pressure off of Fales. The receiving unit was led by Grigsby who posted his first 1,000 yard season. The OL (6’4” 288) had 5 upperclassmen starters including 1 Sr and allowed 25 sacks (5.9%) paving the way for 124 ypg (3.5). Overall SJSt is #54 in my offensive rankings and #56 on defense. The DL avg 6’4” 269 with 2 Sr starters (3 upperclassmen) and had 35.5 (89%) of the team’s 40 sacks. They allow 124 rush ypg (3.6). The Spartans are led by a pair of Jr LB’s in Smith (#1 tackler) and Buhagiar (#2 tackler). SJSt has been gashed at times during the season as 5 times they have allowed 400+ yards. SJSt does have a veteran laden secondary led by a Sr safety duo of Orth and Newsome. SJSt has my #50 pass eff D allowing 228 ypg (58%) with an 18-15 ratio. The ST finished #75 as Lopez (15-15, last 45) emerged to take the FG duties so Waid can just worry about punting (36.7 net). Overall SJSt is avg 26.3 on KR and just 2.6 PR (#117 FBS) while allowing 19.8 and 9.9.

San Jose St comes in with a much better offense but that could be negated by today's weather forecast which calls for sustained winds of at least 20 mph. They also lost their HC in MacIntyre to Colorado a couple of weeks ago who I have great respect for and recently lost a key DT starter. BG's D has performed well all year but the question remains will the Falcon offense finally get on track?

Cincinnati is back in a bowl for the 2nd straight year and will be making its first trip to the Belk Bowl vs a Duke squad that they have never faced. They will be without their HC, however, as Butch Jones took the Tennessee job prior to this game. Interim HC Stripling (DL coach, D run game coordinator) has plenty of post season experience having played or coached in 22 games. The Bearcats faced 7 bowl caliber teams going 4-3 outscoring those 26-21 but were outgained by 2 ypg. HC Cutcliffe earned ACC Coach of the Year after leading Duke to a 6-6 record, which was more wins than last 2 years combined and their first bowl since 1994 (9th overall) despite dropping their last 4. The Devils faced 7 bowl caliber teams going 1-6 being outscored 46-23 and outgained 527-379!! Duke scored at least 30 points in 6 wins but scored 24+ in just one of their losses. Cutcliffe previously led Ole Miss to 4 bowls in 6 seasons.

The Bearcats have my #50 offense avg 31 ppg and 431 ypg. After some struggles at midseason QB Legaux was benched in favor of Kay who has, in turn, helped guide UC to wins in 3 of their last 4 games and is now the clear-cut starter heading into the bowl. While the Bearcats were projected to struggle in the running game with the loss of Sr Isaiah Pead, Winn stepped to the forefront and has nearly surpassed Pead’s 1,259 yard mark of last year (just 55 yards away). UC has 4 different players with more than 350 yards receiving this year with TE Kelce leading the way (#1 in rec, rec yards and rec td’s). The OL avg 6’5” 286 and paved the way for 200 ypg (5.2) rushing while allowing just 13 sacks (3.8%), an improvement from last year’s mark of 22. The D has my #44 ranking allowing 17 ppg and 374 ypg. The DL is a bit undersized at 6’2” 261 and their numbers showed it as they allowed 130 ypg (3.7) on the ground, 35 ypg more than last year. A big reason for the drop, however, was due to the loss of their defensive leader Walter Stewart who saw his career end after just 5 games this year (DL recorded 14 of team’s 31 sacks with Stewart racking up 5 during his shortened season). LB Blair led the Bearcats in tackles (#2 BE) while fellow LB Bomar finished a distant 2nd. UC finished with my #15 pass eff def allowing 244 ypg (55%, 11-14 ratio) despite last year’s #2 tackler S Frey missing time with injury (T-6th on team in tackles). The Bearcats have my #42 ranked ST’s led by the 26.0 KR avg from Ralph David Abernathy.

Duke came into the year with the most experienced QB in the ACC, and the Devils are putting up school record numbers under Cutcliffe. Duke has my number #45 offense avg 31 ppg (+8 from last year) and 397 ypg (+31). QB Renfree is #14 in the FBS in passing and has two dependable WR’s that finished #4 and #5 in the ACC. Vernon set the ACC record in career rec yds and is the only player in ACC history to have 4 years with 70+ rec’s. But one cannot live by the pass alone, and the Devils looked to build a strong run game coming into the season to compliment their QB. They did improve, but not by much (94 ypg to 119) despite a 234 yard performance vs NC. The OL started every game together this year with 1 Sr and they avg 6’4” 299 and paved the way for 119 ypg (3.6). The Devils run a 4-2-5 D that is safety driven, have my #104 ranking and allowed 35 ppg and 462 ypg! The DL avg 6’4” 273 allowing 200 rush ypg (4.8) but gave up 270 ypg (5.6) their last 6. The defense battled injuries at every spot but most notably in the secondary. The Devils are #92 in my pass eff D allowing 262 ypg (57%) with a 25-11 ratio led by 1st Tm ACC CB Cockrell’s 5 int’s (tied #1 ACC) and #1 tackler All-ACC S Canty. The top 4 tacklers are all DB’s. Duke is #85 in my ST’s which can be contributed to the KO cover unit and KR’s, an abysmal #117 and #113 in the FBS respectively.

The bowl drought is over for the Blue Devils and their offense is actually the best that Cincy has faced this year. With a pair of receivers that have combined for 1,980 yards, the Bearcats secondary will be stretched. Duke is coming in on a 4 game losing streak but in fact their last 6 foes were all bowl eligible. Now they face an opponent much more similar to the 6 teams which they beat. I feel this excited Duke unit can pull the outright upset here and do so behind a vet QB and a coach that knows how to win bowl gms (Cutcliffe 3-1 at Ole Miss).

This is the 1st meeting between the schools and both teams’ first experience playing in this game. At 4-5 with #1 KSU looming, the Bears looked like a long shot to make it back to the post season but BU put together a 3 game win streak to go bowling for a school record 3rd straight season. HC Briles is 1-4 getting his 1st bowl win in last year’s Alamo Bowl, a 67-56 shootout with Pac-12 member Washington which broke FBS records for total offense and points scored in a bowl game. After back-to-back defeats to Stanford in the regular season finale and the Pac-12 Title game the Bruins find themselves here. It’s been a commendable year for UCLA, however, under new HC Jim Mora as they reach their 2nd bowl in a row and 3rd in 4 years. Baylor played my 3rd toughest schedule (tops among bowl teams) while the Bruins matched up against my #32.

Despite losing Heisman winner RG3 to the NFL, BU finished with my #3 offense leading the FBS in total offense (579 ypg) and finishing #5 in scoring (44.1). Sr Florence was #1 among Big 12 QB’s in passing with 4,121 yards (61%) and a 31-13 ratio. After back-to-back record setting season’s by Bears RB’s the run game floundered for the 1H of the season until VHT RB Seastrunk (PS#3) took hold of the job vs KU. In the last 5 the speedy (4.35) Oregon transfer avg’d 159 total ypg with 7 td’s which took the pressure off of Florence as he threw just 2 int after having 11 in the first 7 games of the season. Biletnikoff finalist Williams broke the school record with 1,764 rec yards (#1 FBS). The huge OL (6’5” 313) has 2 Sr starters and allowed just 17 sacks (3.7%). The Bears season was defined by TO’s as BU had a -9 TO margin in their 5 losses while it was +14 in their 7 wins. In the wide open Big 12 the D (#88) finished #119 FBS in total D (514) and #114 scoring D (38.2) as early in the season it appeared that Bears would have to score on every possession in order to win. As the season wore on the Bears were able to force mistakes which led to the 3 game win streak. The smallish DL (6’3” 263) finished with just 8 of the Bears’ 13 sacks (#119 FBS) and allowed 191 rush ypg (4.7). The top D player is LB Lackey who finished #2 in tackles and was named Big 12 POW for the last 2 games. BU has my #84 pass eff D (323, 64%, 33-18) with NB Dixon the top playmaker. The ST’s (#60) were inconsistent with Aaron Jones hitting 16-27 FG’s but oddly was just 7-17 from 30-49. The coverage units allowed 22.9 on KR and 12.9 on PR.

UCLA has my #16 offense avg 35 ppg and 475 ypg. The big reason for their success this year has to be given to rFr QB Hundley who has posted over 3,500 yards of total offense while starting all 13 games for the Bruins (1st time since ‘05 that a projected starting UCLA QB started every game in a season). Hundley wasn’t alone in guiding the offense, however, as UCLA’s all-time leading rusher Franklin was back for his Sr campaign as well. While Evans led the team in both receptions and yards, TE Fauria was Hundley’s go-to target in the RZ with 11 td catches on the season. The OL avg 6’5” 299 and paved the way for 203 rush ypg (4.6) but did allow a whopping 46 sacks (10.4%, just 26 allowed in ‘11). The D finished with my #30 ranking allowing 26 ppg and 410 ypg. The 3-man DL unit avg 6’3” 287 and allowed 155 ypg (4.1) on the ground while collecting 17 of the team’s 45 sacks (38%). Despite losing ‘11 All-P12 LB Larimore to inj prior to the season, a pair of new starters stepped to the forefront in leading tackler Kendricks and Barr who leads the Pac-12 lead in sacks (13.5). The secondary features a trio of Sr starters and finished with my #57 pass eff def allowing 255 ypg (63%, 25-15) while the ST’s group finished with my #113 rating despite a solid effort by P Locke (39.9 net) who will almost certainly be drafted by the NFL next spring.

While Baylor gets the attention as an elite offense, you may be surprised that UCLA is only 13 notches behind them. Both tms have mobile QB's that can beat you with not only their arm but also their feet and both tms have talented RB's. The difference comes on the D side of the ball as UCLA's LB Barr has more sks (13.5) than the entire Baylor tm. Naturally this should be a higher scoring game but look for UCLA's D to be able to make a key stop late as UCLA notches a DD win season for the first time since 2005.