Tough spot for Tennessee off a MN game vs the Jets and now travel to a playoff need GB team in cold weather. Tennessee lost 2 starting OL prior the Jets game and against 3-4 defenses they are 1-4 with the only win vs a tired PIT team travelling on Thursday. GB is 7-0 at home in Dec w/a 37-15 avg score prior to DET and they have a huge edge with Rodgers (255 ypg, 67%, 14-5 at home this year) vs the #18 pass defense w/a 24-10 ratio. I’m not worried about RB Johnson influencing the pace of the game here as GB has only allowed 76 ypg (3.7) vs foes w/a losing record this year. I also like the matchup of Capers w/a defense that is expected to get healthier vs a young QB here. I’ll call for the home team by 17.

Here we ago again is the phrase heard around Oakland. The Raiders have made a debacle of hiring HC’s as Allen was the 8th in 12 years and the rumors are flying again. How much motivation can the Oakland players have on a 6 game losing steak, traveling cross county and playing at 10 AM local time. The Raiders lost their two earlier trips to the east coast to Miami and Baltimore by a combined 57 points and have 5 road losses by 23 ppg. Carolina may finish with fewer wins than last year but they are still playing competitively and with excitement as the D has allowed 328 ypg the L9W. In their L/4 home games the Panthers have only avg’d 15 ppg but that was against defenses that ranked #3, #4 and #11. The Panthers impress in their home finale.

It’s a 3-way battle for 2nd place in the AFC East and while all 3 teams may have losing records it would be important for these 2 teams. BUF took advantage of a MIA team travelling on a short week with a 19-14 win earlier this year. While BUF held a tired MIA team to 184 yds (11 of 12 drives under 35 yds) they only managed 4 FG’s on their 4 drives inside the MIA20 in the 1H. Tannehill had a nice stretch in games 2-4 (438 ypg) but since that time teams have shut down the rookie led offense holding them to 280 yards or less in 7 of 9 games and under 15 FD’s/gm. Last year the Bills collapsed down the stretch going 1-8 and you have to feel they learned from that disappointing lesson. I’ll always take an experienced QB with a rush attack gaining 5.1 ypc down the stretch while the DL is only allowing 3.1 ypc. While Miami will clearly be feeling the loss of LT Long they will need to start keeping a RB in which will change their offense.

This game has huge playoff implications in deciding the #6 seed in the AFC. PIT has won 5 straight vs CIN including a 24-17 win in the 1st meeting. It wasn’t as close as the score indicated as they logged a 22-11 FD and a 431-185 yd edges with a 15 min TOP edge. Roethlisberger hasn’t dominated CIN in these games (224 ypg, 66%, 5-3 ratio) but the defense has dominated Dalton in his 3 meetings holding him to an avg of 137 ypg (49%) w/a 4-3 ratio. The Bengals have won 4 of their 6 road games this year avg 395 ypg BUT those foes had an average defensive ranking of #22 with 4 of them ranked #23 or higher. The Steelers #1 D has shut down their opponents holding their L/8 to 242 ypg and 15 FD’s/gm. In Big Ben’s first game back the expected rust showed but he still totaled just 340. Now being off back-to-back home losses this will be a circle the wagons game. Better D, better team looking up in the standings makes this a classic contender vs pretender.

For most teams this would be a letdown situation with NE off the Jets, Dolphins and back-to-back primetime games vs the Texans and 49ers with Miami on deck. However, the Patriots are still fighting for playoff position here and Brady has avg’d 310 ypg (65%) with a 16-3 ratio and NE has outgained foes by 73 ypg (+13 TO’s) on the road this year. The Jag’s top yardage output of 458 yds was vs Houston in an almost full OT session and NE has topped that 4 times this year. Jacksonville is averaging 11 ppg at home. Henne has only avg’d 269 ypg (59%) w/a 6-6 ratio (1-4 record) vs NE but this is the least talented team he’s worked with. It might surprise you that NE has rushed for the second most att’s in the NFL and now they take on a DL that allowed 398 yds rushing its L/2 games. With JAX having just 14 sacks TY look for NE’s #1 offense to make Jaguars the #32 defense after this.

This game is a prime example of how the league is QB driven with Colts having the #3 offense with a rising rookie QB and the Chiefs having the #22 due to their issues. Indy has won the yardage battle in 7 straight before last week while KC has been outgained in 6 of their L9. The Colts have won 7 of their last 9 with the only losses coming against arguably 2 of the AFC's best tms in HOU an NE. Some may write that Luck is starting to wear down only completing 50% his L/4 games but I feel that he’s now accustomed to the offense. In his first 6 games he had a ypa of 6.7 while in his last 7 he’s stretched the field and his ypa has increased to 7.6 now facing a KC secondary that ranks dead last in QBR defense with a 7-21 ratio. Two teams headed in different directions and KC’s only win at home this year was their rally game after the tragedy.

DAL has a bit of a situational edge having been at home last week while NO is paying for its #1 schedule from last year having faced SF, ATL, NYG and an improved TB unit. Entering last week the Cowboys had the stat edges with the #10 and #11 units on the year vs NO’s #3 and #32 units. Brees has had to play perfect ball for NO to win as they are 0-4 when he throws 2 or more int. DAL is very much in the playoff hunt and while they have a huge gm on deck vs WAS which could decide the NFC East, they have been red hot winning 5 of their last 6 gms and will want to continue their run. While NO is off an impressive win vs TB, they are out of the playoff chase and I will call for the Cowboys by 6.

This is all but certain to be Reid’s final home game with the team. PHI does have the extra rest after facing Cincy last week on Thur. In the earlier matchup WAS shredded PHI 31-6 after their bye with a 361-257 yd edge as Griffin completed 14 of 15 passes (200 yds) with 4 td’s. PHI is not only getting playing time for a young QB for the next coach but they dumped the wide-9 defense after the DAL loss and are evaluating youth on that side as well. Foles has now entrenched himself as the QB by leading the Eagles to a come from behind win at TB. At the same time as that comeback RGIII fought through an injured knee and he and Cousins led the Skins to OT and a win over the Ravens. LW the Redskins continue their torrid 2H pace even without RGIII with a huge win on the road at CLE. RGIII is back this wk and the Redskins make next week's gm vs DAL all that more important.

Both are similar as I feel each is heading in the right direction under new HC’s. Tampa has a middle of the road off (#14) vs St Louis’ above average D (#10) while the Rams #25 offense gets to face the Bucs #29 D. You’re seeing the maturation process of these Rams as since their bye they tied SF, upset Arizona on the road and beat SF after upsetting Buffalo. Tampa Bay failed in their first test as the hunted losing on the final play vs Philly. Now they return home after blowout loss in the Super Dome. The Bucs have lost 4 straight and it will be interesting to see how Schiano’s disciplined approach works when everything is not going well.

This is the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for the Giants. Neither team can afford to let up as they position themselves for playoff seeding. This is the second time this year that Eli will face the same team Peyton did the previous week but in the first the Giants lost due to being -3 in TO’s. Taking a look at the season you’ll see that the Ravens have been outgained by 32 ypg vs the #23 schedule while the Giants played a tougher schedule (#17) and are only -3 ypg. The Ravens had won 21 of 22 home games after they beat Cleveland earlier this year but have since struggled at home including LW's blowout loss to DEN. Baltimore may have taken Super Bowl 35 but the Giants take this one.

This is a letdown spot for HOU after 3 straight road games with NE on MNF followed up by their 1st matchup vs Luck. This is MIN’s 4th road game in 5 weeks. This is Peterson’s biggest test of the year vs the #2 rush defense but he is still very much in the mix at breaking the NFL single ssn rush record thanks to LW's performance. You need multiple weapons to attack this Texans D and missing Harvin clearly hurts Minnesota here. Andre Johnson meanwhile gets to attack a Vikings secondary allowing 65% completions. The Texans are still defending a first round bye while Vikings D is wearing out having allowed a season high to GB while Chicago got their #2 offensive performance on the road.

The mention of this matchup is like nails to a chalkboard for Browns fans after The Drive and The Fumble. This is the biggest test for the Browns defense as they haven’t faced a top tier QB with a full set of weapons yet. Weeden’s road stats are respectable as he’s avg’d 295 ypg (61%) w/a 9-5 ratio and 7.5 ypa. However, CLE has scored 20 or less in their L/3 road games despite only being outgained 18 ypg on the road this year. DEN has outgained foes 438-268 in their L/4 home games w/a 33-8 avg score. The one thing you can’t afford to do when facing Manning is to give him time. There have been 7 games this season when Denver has allowed under 2 sacks and he’s thrown for 295 ypg and 74% completions and Cleveland has failed to reach 2 sacks in 4 of their last 6 games. I don’t feel the Browns offense on the road which scored 20 pts vs Oakland’s #30 D, 20 vs Dallas’ #11 D and 13 vs Indy’s #22 D will be able to keep it close vs Denver’s #4 D.

The Bears are off 3 straight losses but still in the hunt for a playoff berth. Their losses this year have been to GB (twice), Houston, SF, Seattle and Minnesota. Arizona started off 3-0 at home but since has gone 0-3. We’ve got the NFL’s #1 QBR defense that is #9 in sacks against the Cards who are last is sacks allowed and have an offense that can’t run (#32) or pass (#28). The Bears also have a huge edge on ST’s which is were they excel as they hold down my #1 ranking. The Bears still have a lot to play for while the Cards are trying not to become the first team in over 25 years to win their first four and lose their final 12.

This was originally the Sunday night “we missed the playoffs” game of the week, however the NFL flexed SEA/SF into the SNF game. The Jets have already started shifting management and are basically running on a skeleton crew. New York had lost both primetime home games this year but that was vs NE and Houston. The Chargers were “going through the motions” having lost 4 straight prior to the PIT win, but what still is surprising is their offense has only avg’d 320 ypg in that span. LW the Jets were eliminated from playoff contention thanks to an abysmal performance by QB Sanchez and questionable play-calling by inserting Tebow in the lineup when the Jets had momentum. Now with them clearly in look-a-head mode to 2013, they will go to McElroy here who got some limited action a couple wks ago vs ARZ. Two D's that have been playing well vs two struggling offenses. Look for the home team to squeak by here in a low scoring affair.

The NFL flexed this into the Sunday Night spot due to the coaching rivalry and the fact that the NFC West has been competitive for much of the year. The 2011 NFC West champ travels to face the 2010 champ in what may be the game that decides the 2012 champ. The first meeting ended as you would expect with 2 top 4 defenses as both team combined for 19 pts, 31 FD’s and 564 yards. Seattle’s “12th man” has led to a perfect 6-0 record with their last home loss coming last year in their home finale against this same 49ers team (19-17). Since Kaepernick took over his 2 road games were at NO and St Louis where they scored just 13 points.The Seahawks have shut down every opponent at home except NE as in their other 5 games they’re allowing 238 ypg and two of SF’s 3 losses were when they were held to under 100 yards rushing. SF is on a second straight away and off prime timer at NE and I’ll call for Carroll to get an early Christmas present and beat Harbaugh for the first time in 4 NFL meetings.