Rex Ryan ensured that the Jets would again be on the front page of every NY paper promoting McElroy as the starting QB. He was 14-24 with a 0-1 ratio vs San Diego and his struggles to make the correct reads were obvious as he was sacked 11 times. Now Ryan is going back to Sanchez in this one. These two also faced off in the season opener with the Jets winning 48-28 and after that explosion NY avg’d just 16 ppg the rest of the way. Buffalo is off a loss at Miami and while they only totaled 7 pts they won the yardage battle 381-301 but were -4 TO’s. The Jets know their season is over, they know they’ll have a new OC and DC, they know the roster will be blown up and they now also have to deal with feuding QB’s to split the team even further. The Bills will pounce on the chance to beat the other state of NY AFC team for the first time in 6 tries and a win here would give them a 3rd place finish leaving the Jets in last.

Who has the edge in the second meeting? A rookie QB facing Belichick’s schemes or vice versa? Well in their first meeting 4 weeks ago Tannehill was held to 186 yds and 45% completions. The Pats are still alive for a bye and with the #1 offense, off an embarrassing previous home loss against a division foe. While other QB’s may be OK with 23 points on the road that is second lowest total of this season for Brady and Co who will want to enter the post season on a high note. Miami deserves credit for winning 2 straight but both were at home against cellar dwellers giving them false hope. The Dolphins have totaled under 240 yards in 3 of their L/4 away as the rookie QB as completed 52%, 50% and 40% in those games. The forecast calls for 30º and precipitation which Brady enjoys and Tannehill hasn’t seen that an NFL’r. Lastly New England has an amazing streak this season of being even or having a TO edge in every game so they rarely beat themselves which leaves it to the talent on the field and the coaching staffs.

Since the Denver loss, the Ravens’ D has gotten a little healthier and Ray Lewis could return here. BAL has struggled away and is avg just 298 ypg on the road (382 at home). LY in the season finale, CIN was playing with playoff need thinking they needed to win to make the playoffs (ended up getting in by backdoor) while BAL had the playoffs wrapped up but the Ravens still came into CIN and left with a 24-16 win after leading 17-3 at the half. These two played earlier this year and BAL at home on Monday Night led 17-10 at the half then rolled to a 44-13 win with a 430-322 yd edge (+2 TO). CIN has the #6 D giving them a large edge as BAL comes in #20. On the season, CIN is outgaining their foes and BAL is being outgained. Two years ago BAL did lose here at CIN in the opener by 5 and have actually dropped 2 of their last 3 so I’ll call for the Bengals to head into the playoffs on a strong note.

The last time Pittsburgh lost to Cleveland at home was 2003 and they won 15 of the next 16 before losing 5 weeks ago behind 3rd string QB Batch. The last 2 years these two have met in CLE for the season finale with Pittsburgh being playoff bound and the Browns staying home. The Gold & Black won 13-9 and 41-9. Now Pittsburgh plays this finale knowing they are eliminated from the playoffs while also being the most injured team leading the NFL with starts lost. Cleveland, meanwhile, has an aura of excitement under their new owner and in fact the win vs the Steelers earlier was his first. The rivalry continues to be important for the Browns and their trio of rookies who lead the team in passing, rushing and receiving will play this out. However, with the Browns starting Lewis, they’ll have to wait another year to sweep their rivals (for the first time since ‘88).

Houston took its “week off” as they were outgained 345-187 in a 23-6 loss vs Minnesota. That loss however now has Houston needing to win this game to secure a bye. The Colts punched their post season ticket in a win over KC but a quick check shows that were run over with 352 yds and 7.6 ypc rushing. Thanks to being +3 in TO’s Luck was able to lead a 73/13pl 4Q GW drive and this game is irrelevant to them as their seeding is locked in. The Texans who rolled through the early portion of the season have posted some alarming numbers down the stretch as they’ve been outgained in each of their L/4 road games. Luck’s ratio at home (10-5) is far superior to on the road (10-13) yet 2 weeks ago at Houston he still came away 2-0. The Colts also allowed 5 sacks that game and the OL will benefit from the quick turnaround. While HOU is the team playing with playoff need here, I think the Colts will also play inspired ball with their HC being on the sidelines after his cancer battle.

Talk about disperate results! The Titans were of a Monday Night win at home and played their worst game of the season as they trailed GB 55-0 and only scored with 1:38 left. JAX meanwhile was off a road loss in which they only scored a FG and may have played their best game outgaining NE 436-349. Jacksonville comes into this finale with 2 wins both vs division foes having beaten this Titans squad 5 weeks ago. In that game they took the lead late in the 1Q and led the rest of the way. So do they revert back to two weeks ago? I think so. Chris Johnson was completely taken out of the rush attack LW (28, 2.5) but this proud, experienced veteran has always bounced back and in the last 3 he was held to under 50 yds rushing he avg’d 118 ypg and 5.5 ypc the next week. The Jags happen to be #31 in rush D which makes for a dynamic finale for the Tennessee offense and they also get revenge.

The Giants still need a win to make the playoffs and PHI, of course, has nothing to play for and a lot of high priced talent that’s merely playing out the string at the end. LW vs WAS they actually had a 183-141 yd edge at the half but trailed 13-10. Earlier in the year PHI upset the NYG which should have them a little more focused for this. The key to this probably comes in the 3Q as if the Eagles are competitive we could see them playing the entire game. PHI has had a couple of blowout losses on the road this year including losing to ARZ by 21 and the Saints by 15. They are an unusual team in the fact they outgained their foes by 28 ypg on the road and are being outgained at home. The Giants only play their best when they need an “A” game. While there is playoff need, this doesn’t look like an “A” game. I’ll call for the superior team at home to win this by double digits.

Detroit was called out as a team that quit by HC Schwartz after a loss at Arizona and they followed that up with a festive night for Calvin Johnson (11-225) as he topped HOF’r Jerry Rice. Unfortunately they were -3 in TO’s and lost their 7th straight. While winning doesn’t seem to motivate them maybe the entire team’s goal will be to get CJ to 2K yds. Chicago has also slumped to the finish line losing 5 of 6 before LW but those losses are easily explained as each is a playoff contender with 3 being div leaders. Those 5 teams are all also okay on D as they were ranked #2, #3, #7, #14 and #20. LW vs Arizona the Bears gained some confidence back albeit vs a QB who was signed just weeks ago. With CHI still in the mix of the playoffs and DET not wanting to end the season losing their 8th straight, I expect a great effort by both teams and will call for the Bears to come away with a win.

The nation saw the Lions focus their game plan on getting Megatron the record and if you thought the Vikings would do that vs Houston you were dead wrong. Minnesota has been a quite playoff contender staying under the radar but going into Houston and holding them to 11 FD’s is a feat. The Packers have had their share of defensive injuries and after allowing 87 ypg and 3.7 ypc from games #2-9 they allowed 143 ypg and 5.2 ypc the next 5 with AP and the Vikings doing the most damage (240, 8.6). I do expect Peterson to get to 2,000 yds but look for Green Bay to play one of the best games of the year and shockingly get the NFC's #2 seed after starting the season 2-3.

The Falcons made no secret of wanting to clinch home field advantage at Detroit and they did just that. They quieted may critics with their nationally televised win the week after beating the NY Giants 34-0. This week, however, they are clearly in a letdown spot taking on the Bucs. Tampa has been the epitome of a roller coaster team starting 1-3 with a new HC, winning 5 of 6 with a college type enthusiasm and once the rah-rah approach wore off they’ve now dropped their L/5. With the bye in hand Atlanta will not roll over to a division foe which they needed to come from behind and beat by 1 pt, will clearly want to finish with a prefect home record and will not want players to go 2 full weeks without game action. Expect the Falcons to go into HT with a solid lead but it’ll depend on how the #2’s play D in the 2H . I’ll call Atlanta by 4.

Most QB’s have much more success at home compared to on the road but Newton is not one of them. As a visitor he’s thrown for 1802 yds (1649 home), 59.4% (56.9), 8.7 ypa (7.6) with an 11-4 ratio (7-6). Newton also torched the Saints #31 D in their first meeting (70%, 12.7 ypa, 129.2 QBR). The Saints were hearing all about of the demise of Drew Brees who in B2B weeks complied a 1-7 ratio although it was against the top NFC team and the defending SB champ. All he’s done the L2W is beat TB 41-0 (4-0 ratio) and go into Dallas and throw for a season high 446 yds with a 3-0 ratio. The calendar may not say 2013, but they are playing this game as the first towards that season and this division has the making of one of the NFL bests for next year. Can the Panthers head into 2013 with a 5 game win streak and a sweep over the Saints or will New Orleans make it a clean 6-0 run against NFC South teams at home the L2Y?

The season long Chiefs skid continues and on the road the anemic offense has avg’d 9 ppg, 14 FD/gm and 253 ypg. The “bad news” is that none of those 5 opp’s have a winning record. Denver knows they still have to win to secure a playoff bye but no way will they will risk the health of Manning and once a lead is established expects a conservative ground game. The Broncos are the ONLY NFL team with both their offense and defense ranked in the top 5 but in the last 7 weeks they’re avg only 28 ppg. The Chiefs topped 500 yds LW with 352 (7.6) rushing but those numbers will not happen against a Broncos team with a #2 rush D.

Atlantis, Stonehenge, the Bermuda Triangle and SD’s 2012 offense! The Chargers finished ‘10 as the NFL’s #1 unit and followed that up with a #6 finish in ‘11. They came into TY with 10 off starters returning and put up 416 yds in their home opener. But, after avg 9 ppg and 240 ypg the L/3 their home avg is 298 ypg. Injuries to Matthews and the OL can explain a lot but LW they got 2 OL starters back and still only totaled 223 yds. The Raiders snapped a 6 gm losing streak by shutting out KC in their home finale but went back to their previous form by losing at Carolina and they’ve now gone 8 straight Q’s without a td. They now have to travel again for their finale with rumors circulating of yet another coaching change (would be 8th HC in 11Y). Expect a spirited effort in Turner final game here.

The 49ers simply have to win here to secure the NFC West Title. SF has dominated teams with a losing record at home TY going 6-0. They have logged a 22-14 FD and 394-238 yd edge in those games with a 31-10 avg score. ARZ inserted QB Hoyer who was claimed off waivers 12/10 due to system comfort after the half LW. It is quite likely he starts here despite just 105 yds (58%) with an 0-1 ratio LW in order to evaluate him. While ARZ’s OL is improved over the 1st meeting TY (4 sks, 7 yds rush, 0.8) SF’s opposing QBR of 78.7 prior to SEA was top 10. At the very least SF’s #2 defense will be making a big push for Aldon Smith (19.5 sks) to break Strahan’s sack record as he strives for DMVP. LW was only the 2nd time in 6 wks that ARZ broke 200 yds offense and their 241 ypg offense on the road is 33 yds less than what SF is giving up. SF is off a loss and Harbaugh will have his team charged up here.

The schedule makers did the Rams no favors by finishing with B2B road games and 3 in the L4W all in different environments (BUF, TB, SEA). They are in a poor situational spot after travelling out to TB LW and now having to fly up to SEA where they are 0-5 with a 29-8 avg loss. STL’s victory LW is also a bit misleading as they converted 5 TO’s into 21 pts while being outgained 429-285. In Bradford’s L3 road games he’s avg’d just 209 ypg (49%) with a 5-3 ratio. Prior to LW SEA was allowing 200 ypg pass (57%) w/a 4-9 ratio at home. While STL’s defense is vastly better (and healthier) than LY’s they have given up 129 ypg rush (4.4) the L8W as they still lack depth up front. Wilson has only thrown 1 int at home TY vs 12 td’s and his lowest home QBR has been 88.0 vs ARZ. STL’s defense had a big edge LW at TB as they have one of the worst home attendance marks in the NFL. Now the Rams have to deal with a rowdy 12th man on the road again and I’ll take the Seahawks here by 10.

The last time the Skins played a season finale with a possible playoff berth RG III was leading Copperas Cove HS to the Texas 4A championship game. Ironically that game was also at home vs Dallas. Washington has reeled off 6 straight wins and remember 2 weeks ago it was Cousins starting on the road while last week RG III had a limited game plan as he ran only twice for 4 yards. That won’t be the case here another week removed from his injury. The Cowboys lost to the New Orleans Saints but it was not the fault of Romo who continues his torrid streak (416, 60%, 4-0). One of the Cowboys losses at home was to these Skins on Thanksgiving. The QB matchup has the makings of a classic and I’ll call for the Skins by 1.