| Daily Blog • Monday, February 14th |
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Two weeks ago I released my projected preseason AP Top 10 and I thought I would analyze another set of rankings for the upcoming season. A couple of weeks ago, several casinos released their odds for the 2012-13 BCS National Championship. While PhilSteele.com does not affiliate itself with gambling, I do think it is interesting to see how Vegas is examining the upcoming season.
Here are the Top 10 Favorites to win the title this upcoming year courtesy of Bovada (formerly Bodog).
1. LSU Odds: 19/4
If you checked out my projected AP Top 10 blog, you would have read that the Tigers are the favorite going into next season and the odds certainly agree here. They return their top 4 rushers and DB Mathieu. Throw in QB Zach Mettenberger who Miles said last year was his best pure passing QB and a home game vs Alabama and the Tigers are the favorites to win the National Title!
2. USC Odds: 5/1
The Trojans were my projected AP #2 team for 2012. The Trojans locked up their spot here with the surprising return of QB Matt Barkley who is clearly one of the Heisman favorites in 2012. He will have plenty of skill position talent surrounding him with his top 2 WR’s Robert Woods and Marqise Lee back and 1,000 yd rusher Curtis McNeal also returning. With 15 returning starters, the Trojans clearly are one of the favorites to take home the crystal ball.
3. Alabama Odds: 11/2
The Crimson Tide were my #3 pick in the Projected AP Top 10 poll and the odds again agree. The Crimson Tide were my pick to win the National Title last year and they did just that avenging an earlier loss to LSU by dominating the Tigers in the BCS Championship game 21-0. This year the defending champs return 7 starters on offense led by QB AJ McCarron who played magnificently in the title game and Saban has another great recruiting class coming in.
4. Oklahoma Odds: 10/1
The Sooners return 15 starters including QB Landry Jones who will play better than last year’s finish and HC Bob Stoops and the Sooners have won at least 10 games in a season 10 times since 2000!
5. Florida St Odds: 12/1
The Seminoles were a darkhorse pick for the National Title last year but an injury to QB Manuel saw the Noles drop to 2-3 at one point in the season. FSU would respond to win 7 of its last 8 games and this year they return 15 starters including QB Manuel and defensive stars DL Jenkins and DB Reid.
5. Oregon Odds: 12/1
The Ducks have become a fixture among the nation’s elite under HC Chip Kelly with 3 straight BCS appearances and last year captured their first Rose Bowl win since 1916! While QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James are gone, their replacements are plenty capable as QB Bryan Bennett and RB’s Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas return with some valuable game experience.
7. Georgia Odds: 14/1
Another team that I had slated for my projected AP Top 10. This year the Bulldogs return 15 starters including QB Aaron Murray, leading rusher Isaiah Crowell, their top 2 rec’s and a 1st-Team All-American candidate on D in OLB Jarvis Jones. Again the Bulldogs AVOID LSU, Alabama and Arkansas out of the SEC West and will be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Champs.
8. Arkansas Odds: 20/1
The Razorbacks have had their most successful B2B seasons since 1988-89 going 22-5 the last two years. This year they return 13 starters including QB Tyler Wilson and will get back 2010 All-SEC RB Knile Davis who was out all of last season with an ankle injury. Last year the Razorbacks lost only two games to the top 2 teams in LSU and Alabama (both on the road) and this year the Crimson Tide and Tigers have to travel to Arkansas.
8. Notre Dame Odds: 20/1
The Fighting Irish get the nod here not so much because they are a Top 10 favorite heading into next season but more because so many fans have strong opinions on ND one way or another and the odds makers know this. They do return 14 starters including TE Eifert and LB Te’o and did sign my PS#1 QB Gunner Kiel but the schedule is daunting with road trips to USC, Oklahoma and Michigan St with home games vs Michigan and Stanford with a neutral site game vs Miami, Fl.
10. Michigan Odds: 22/1
The Wolverines were one of the biggest surprises in college football last year winning 11 games and a BCS Bowl under first-year HC Brady Hoke. This year they return 7 starters on offense led by QB Denard Robinson and RB Toussaint who should be more comfortable in the 2nd-year of the new offense. UM also return 7 starters from a defense that allowed just 17.4 ppg (#6) which was nearly an 18 ppg improvement from 2010! The Wolverines figure to be the favorites to win the Big Ten this year.
Here are some other odds:
Clemson |
25/1 |
Michigan St |
75/1 |
Texas |
28/1 |
Oklahoma St |
75/1 |
Virginia Tech |
28/1 |
Stanford |
75/1 |
Florida |
30/1 |
Missouri |
85/1 |
South Carolina |
30/1 |
Penn St |
100/1 |
West Virginia |
30/1 |
Pittsburgh |
100/1 |
Kansas St |
35/1 |
Tennessee |
100/1 |
Nebraska |
35/1 |
Texas A&M |
100/1 |
Wisconsin |
40/1 |
BYU |
125/1 |
Auburn |
50/1 |
California |
125/1 |
Boise St |
50/1 |
Miami, Fl |
125/1 |
TCU |
50/1 |
North Carolina |
125/1 |
Cincinnati |
65/1 |
Boston College |
150/1 |
Mississippi St |
65/1 |
Georgia Tech |
150/1 |
Washington |
65/1 |
USF |
150/1 |
Arizona |
75/1 |
UCLA |
150/1 |
Iowa |
75/1 |
Oregon St |
200/1 |