Daily Blog • Saturday, January 14th

 

NFL PLAYOFFS: 3-1 LW!
136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

 

4

NFC SEMI-FINALS
SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH
4:30 PM ET FOX

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEW ORLEANS 108
335
30
1.7
#5

97.7

SAN FRANCISCO
110
253
23
0.8
#1
97.6

Jim Harbaugh followed up leading Stanford to a 12-1 season and its 1st BCS bowl win by taking SF to their 1st NFC West title since 2002. SF is 7-1 at home and while they've only outgained foes by an avg of 21 ypg owning an NFL best +19 TO's has set up a 28-11 avg score. NO beat a very different SF team 25-22 on MNF in Wk 2 LY. SF had a 417-287 yd edge but 4 TO's killed their momentum as NO hit a 37 yd FG on the final play to win. NO is on the road being +84 ypg (2nd best) but were -7 TO's. NO has broken the 500 yd mark in 6 gms TY while SF has only tallied 3 games of 400 yds offense. While I would usually pick the team with a strong D at home this NO squad has the potential of making a very impressive SB run. While extra motivation is not needed NO certainly remembers losing to an NFC West tm LY while also knowing that they are only the 2nd ever team to win 13 reg ssn gms and not have a bye.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20

 

2

AFC SEMI-FINALS
SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH
8:00 PM ET CBS

DENVER (9-8) AT NEW ENGLAND (13-3)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
DENVER 158
208
18
2.2
#11
99.2
NEW ENGLAND
133
328
40
1.3
#6
98.6

For the 4th time in the L/9Y the Pats have secured the #1 seed in the AFC despite having the #31 D in the NFL. They are also the only team to have logged a winning record in 11 str years since FA opened in 1993. That said NE is under a lot of pressure having lost 3 straight playoff gms. Brady has avg'd 240 ypg (60%) with just a 5-4 ratio in the L3 losses. NE went 7-1 at home TY with the Giants loss snapping a 20 game home win streak. They were +47 ypg at home in 2011 (7th) with a +8 TO mark for a 31-19 avg score. They beat DEN 41-23 just 4 wks ago. DEN had a 16-7 lead after their 1st 3 drives. NE adjusted mid-stride and dominated DEN 34-7 from there with a 363-168 yd edge holding the Broncos to 70 yds rush in the 2H. DEN went 5-3 on the road TY being outgained by 42 ypg (24th) with -2 TO's for a 25-22 scoring deficit. LY's home playoff loss will have the ply'rs, cch's and fans all taking nothing for granted. The Tebow express cont'd by pulling the upset but that was at home against a depleted and banged up Steelers squad. DEN also goes from the late OT game Sun to a Sat gm plus travels across county. I'm picking Brady vs any D and will relish the thought of Belichick devising a gameplan to shutdown the Broncos.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 34 DENVER 17

 


3

AFC SEMI-FINALS
SUNDAY JANUARY 15TH
1:00 PM ET CBS

HOUSTON (11-6) AT BALTIMORE (12-4)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
HOUSTON 120
160
16
0.6
#14
97.4
BALTIMORE
135
218
23
1.7
#25
97.7

BAL earned its 3rd ever AFC North title and finished 12-4 for the 3rd time in franchise history. They are a very exp'd with this being their 8th postseason game in the L4Y and they are the only team with a playoff win in each of the L3Y. The Ravens went a perfect 8-0 at home TY with the 4th best ydg differential at +86 ypg (+5 TO's) for a 27-15 avg score. Joe Flacco hasn't been very impressive in the playoffs avg just 150 ypg (53%) with a 4-7 ratio in his 7 starts though he didn't have to do much vs NE in 2009. HOU went 5-3 on the road TY outgaining foes by 66 ypg (3rd best) while tying GB for an NFL best +12 TO's setting up a 26-19 avg score. BAL has won 3 str vs Kubiak including a 29-14 win back in Wk 6 coming off a bye week. BAL had a 402-293 yd edge but settled for 2 TD's/5 FG's inside the HOU30 before taking a victory knee at the end. HOU had 2 TD's, 6 punts and were SOD 3 times with Schaub at the helm. Run the ball and play great D it's what got these 2 teams to this matchup. This gm pits the league's #2 and #3 overall D's while they rank #3 and #4 in scoring D. On off they both prefer to slow the clock as the Texans are tied for the NFL's most rush att's while BAL is #8. When two teams are nearly mirror images of one another I'll go with the more experienced home team.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 21 HOUSTON 13

 

3

NFC SEMI-FINALS
SUNDAY JANUARY 15TH
4:30 PM ET CBS

NY GIANTS (10-7) AT GREEN BAY (15-1)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NY GIANTS 119
328
27
2.3
#26
99.4
GREEN BAY
101
373
34
1.1
#10
98.4

The Packers are the #1 seed in the NFC for the 1st time since 1996 thanks to the 6th 15-1 record in the NFL history. They are a stellar 17-1 at home and have won all 8 HG's for the 1st time since 2002. GB has outscored foes 40-21 at home TY despite being outgained by an avg of 4 ypg (+2 TO's). Mike McCarthy is 23-1 at home when GB scores 30 or more. GB beat the Giants 38-35 earlier TY. Both QB's combined for over 700 yds passing with GB going 68/5pl in :58 to hit the game winning FG as time expired. The Giants went 5-3 on the road TY being outgained by 12 ypg (+4 TO's) but on the short end of a 27-26 scoring avg. They are however 4-1 on the road in the playoffs under Coughlin with a 21-18 avg score. NY's D is showed what they're capable of with a healthy D-line but that was against an ultra conservative offense with absolutely no surprises. The Giants have played physical must-win games vs the Jets, the Cowboys and the Falcons the L/3W and will struggle facing an elite QB for the first time since facing GB and NO in B2B weeks. Against the NFC's top 2 offenses the Giants allowed a combined 87 pts, 60 FD's, 1,026 yds and 732 passing yards.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 30 NY GIANTS 21