Even though they avenged their loss in 2010, the 33-14 home loss in the 2009 Wildcard round still stings the Patriots. BAL was simply the more physical team that day as they dominated all phases. This led to NE altering their offensive package to be 2 TE heavy and more physical. Both teams took advantage of inexperienced QB’s LW’s to advance. NE exerted their will vs DEN (509-252 yd edge) while BAL capitalized on HOU’s mistakes. Seventeen of BAL’s 20 pts were off TO’s with only 2 drives over 40 yds on the day. NE is now 8-1 at home TY outgaining foes by 70 ypg (+7 TO’s) for a 32-18 avg score. BAL went 4-4 on the road w/a +14 ypg mark (-5 TO’s) for a 20-18 avg score. SD, NYJ, PIT, and IND are the common foes with BAL going 4-1 w/a 331-287 yd edge (+6 TO’s) for a 26-18 avg score. NE went 4-1 being outgained 393-384 but was +9 TO’s for a 30-21 avg score. The Patriots as a whole are on a mission and the playoff sked sets up perfectly being under the radar vs Tebowmania LW and they now get a rematch in front of the fans that booed them 2 years ago. “I’d have been booing us, too, the way we played,” Brady said. “Playing the way we played today, we weren’t going to beat anybody.” I know Brady can beat any def and while BAL’s stop unit looked solid it was vs a rookie QB playing on the road with a 17-3 1Q deficit. The Ravens off LW totaled just 227 yards and 11 FD’s getting TD’s on 2/3pl and 34/5pl “drives”. Don’t discount NE’s D as they’ve played bend but don’t break with their def ypp #2 in the NFL and they’ve had 16 sacks the last 4 games.

Both teams capitalized LW on stout defensive play to turn the tables against two of the NFL’s premier QB’s to advance to the NFC Championship. Earlier this year SF caught the Giants at an ideal time as they were off a big road win vs NE with B2B primetime events vs PHI/NO on deck. The Giants pulled to within 7 halfway thru the 4th Qtr and were threatening to tie at the end but DE Justin Smith deflected the pass on 4th&2 on the SF 10. The Giants had a 395-305 yd edge holding the ball for 34:37. Manning had 311 yds (65%) w/a 2-2 ratio while Smith hit for 242 yds (63%) w/a 1-1 ratio. SF while they have only outgained foes by 12 ypg at home TY they are an amazing +23 TO’s for their 29-13 avg score. The Giants are 6-3 on the road TY (inc SF) where they have been outgained by 7 ypg (+7 TO’s) with a 27-26 avg score. There are plenty of common foes TY with the divisions facing each other and NO was the 1 NDIV foe that both teams faced. The Giants were outgained by 8 ypg (+2 TO’s) overall for a 26-24 avg score but 4 games were at the start of the year when the OL was adjusting and the secondary was beat up. SF was outgained by 4 ypg but were +25 TO’s for a 26-18 avg score. The Giants remind me of last year’s Packers squad using late season momentum and being in better health than earlier in the season. The Giants have proven to be road warriors pulling upsets at PHI (29-16), at NE (24-20) and at DAL (37-34). They also benefit from an earlier meeting here in which they outgained SF 395-305. The 49ers needed 5 Saints turnovers to survive last week and you can’t expect the emotion to match LW’s first playoff game at home since 2002. SF has allowed a staggering 27 sacks their last 7 games and expect the now healthy NY D-line (17 sacks L/4 games inc 4 vs GB) to take over.