Daily Blog •July 20, 2012

At SEC Media Days, Steve Spurrier mentioned that despite winning a school record 11 games last year he jokingly said that he might not have done that great of a job since the Gamecocks were favored in 12 games last year.

This got me thinking about how many times a team has been favored, how many times they have suffered upset losses and similarily how many times they have been a dog along with the number of upset wins they have pulled. I also thought it would be interesting to look at the differential between the number of times a team was favored and their actual win/loss record.

Since looking at one year is usually not enough of a data point to make a general conclusion, I decided to look at the past three years for my study. The lines used to decide the fav/dog records came straight from my magazine.

# Of Games Favored 2009-2011

 

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  Games Wins as Upset Games Upset Lost as Actual Actual Net
Team Fav Fav Losses Dog Wins Dog Wins Losses Diff
Boise St 39 37 2 1 1 0 38 2 -1
Alabama 39 35 4 1 1 0 36 4 -3
Oklahoma 37 29 8 3 1 2 30 10 -7
TCU 36 33 3 3 3 0 36 3 0
Virginia Tech 36 31 5 5 1 4 32 9 -4
Oregon 35 31 4 5 3 2 34 6 -1
Nebraska 34 28 6 7 1 6 29 12 -5
Wisconsin 33 28 5 7 4 3 32 8 -1
Oklahoma St 33 30 3 6 2 4 32 7 -1
Houston 33 25 8 7 3 4 28 12 -5
Stanford 32 29 3 7 2 5 31 8 -1
Florida 32 27 5 8 1 7 28 12 -4
USC 31 24 7 7 3 4 27 11 -4
Ohio St 30 25 5 9 4 5 29 10 -1
Nevada 30 26 4 10 2 8 28 12 -2
Southern Miss 30 23 7 10 4 6 27 13 -3
Texas 30 24 6 9 2 7 26 13 -4
Clemson 30 22 8 11 3 8 25 16 -5
LSU 29 28 1 11 5 6 33 7 4
Northern Illinois 29 24 5 12 5 7 29 12 0
West Virginia 29 22 7 10 6 4 28 11 -1
Georgia 29 22 7 11 2 9 24 16 -5
Miami, Fl 29 18 11 9 4 5 22 16 -7
Temple 28 22 6 10 4 6 26 12 -2
Florida St 28 20 8 12 6 6 26 14 -2
Cincinnati 28 23 5 9 2 7 25 12 -3
Pittsburgh 28 21 7 11 3 8 24 15 -4
UCF 28 22 6 11 2 9 24 15 -4
Notre Dame 28 19 9 10 3 7 22 16 -6
BYU 27 24 3 12 4 8 28 11 1
Penn St 27 24 3 12 3 9 27 12 0
South Carolina 27 22 5 13 5 8 27 13 0
Ohio 27 21 6 14 6 8 27 14 0
Georgia Tech 27 21 6 13 4 9 25 15 -2
Texas A&M 27 19 8 12 3 9 22 17 -5
Auburn 26 24 2 14 6 8 30 10 4
Arkansas 26 25 1 13 4 9 29 10 3
Michigan St 26 23 3 14 5 9 28 12 2
Utah 26 23 3 13 5 8 28 11 2
Iowa 26 20 6 13 6 7 26 13 0
Missouri 26 21 5 13 5 8 26 13 0
Air Force 26 22 4 13 2 11 24 15 -2
Navy 26 18 8 13 6 7 24 15 -2
North Carolina 26 19 7 13 4 9 23 16 -3
California 25 18 7 12 2 10 20 17 -5
Troy 25 18 7 13 2 11 20 18 -5
Michigan 24 19 5 14 4 10 23 15 -1
Tulsa 23 19 4 15 4 11 23 15 0
Texas Tech 23 18 5 15 4 11 22 16 -1
San Diego St 23 18 5 15 3 12 21 17 -2
USF 23 14 9 15 7 8 21 17 -2
Arizona 23 16 7 15 3 12 19 19 -4
Illinois 23 13 10 15 4 11 17 21 -6
SMU 22 17 5 18 6 12 23 17 1
Toledo 22 16 6 16 6 10 22 16 0
Arkansas St 22 17 5 15 1 14 18 19 -4
Hawaii 21 16 5 19 6 13 22 18 1
Fresno St 21 15 6 18 5 13 20 19 -1
Middle Tennessee 21 14 7 17 4 13 18 20 -3
Mississippi 21 14 7 16 1 15 15 22 -6
Tennessee 20 17 3 18 1 17 18 20 -2
Central Michigan 20 16 4 18 2 16 18 20 -2
FIU 20 13 7 18 5 13 18 20 -2
Rutgers 19 14 5 19 8 11 22 16 3
Baylor 19 16 3 19 5 14 21 17 2
Mississippi St 19 17 2 19 4 15 21 17 2
Arizona St 19 14 5 18 2 16 16 21 -3
Utah St 19 12 7 18 3 15 15 22 -4
NC State 18 12 6 20 10 10 22 16 4
Connecticut 18 12 6 20 9 11 21 17 3
Boston College 18 13 5 20 6 14 19 19 1
W Michigan 18 14 4 19 4 15 18 19 0
Northwestern 17 14 3 22 7 15 21 18 4
Louisville 16 12 4 22 6 16 18 20 2
Purdue 16 11 5 21 5 16 16 21 0
UTEP 16 10 6 20 5 15 15 22 -1
Kent St 16 12 4 20 3 17 15 21 -1
ULM 16 11 5 20 4 16 15 21 -1
Kansas St 15 13 2 22 10 12 23 14 8
East Carolina 15 12 3 24 8 16 20 19 5
Kentucky 15 13 2 23 5 18 18 20 3
Louisiana Tech 15 13 2 22 4 18 17 20 2
Oregon St 15 8 7 22 8 14 16 21 1
Virginia 15 10 5 22 5 17 15 22 0
Syracuse 14 10 4 22 6 16 16 20 2
Minnesota 14 7 7 23 5 18 12 25 -2
Marshall 13 12 1 25 7 18 19 19 6
Iowa St 13 10 3 25 8 17 18 20 5
Washington 13 11 2 24 7 17 18 19 5
Wake Forest 13 10 3 24 4 20 14 23 1
Maryland 13 9 4 24 4 20 13 24 0
UAB 13 6 7 23 6 17 12 24 -1
Idaho 12 8 4 26 8 18 16 22 4
Bowling Green    12 6 6 25 8 17 14 23 2
Vanderbilt 12 8 4 24 2 22 10 26 -2
Buffalo 12 7 5 24 3 21 10 26 -2
Wyoming 11 9 2 27 9 18 18 20 7
Louisiana 11 8 3 26 10 16 18 19 7
Army 11 7 4 26 8 18 15 22 4
Colorado St 11 5 6 25 4 21 9 27 -2
UCLA 10 10 0 29 7 22 17 22 7
Miami, Oh 10 8 2 28 7 21 15 23 5
Ball St 10 5 5 26 7 19 12 24 2
Kansas 10 7 3 26 3 23 10 26 0
Indiana 9 7 2 27 3 24 10 26 1
Florida Atlantic 9 4 5 27 6 21 10 26 1
UNLV 9 6 3 28 3 25 9 28 0
Colorado 8 4 4 29 7 22 11 26 3
Duke 8 5 3 28 6 22 11 25 3
San Jose St 8 4 4 29 4 25 8 29 0
Tulane 7 4 3 30 5 25 9 28 2
North Texas 6 3 3 30 7 23 10 26 4
Eastern Michigan 6 4 2 30 4 26 8 28 2
Akron 6 4 2 30 1 29 5 31 -1
New Mexico St 5 3 2 33 6 27 9 29 4
Westen Kentucky 5 2 3 31 7 24 9 27 4
Washington St 4 3 1 32 4 28 7 29 3
Rice 3 3 0 32 6 26 10 26 6
Memphis 3 2 1 33 3 30 5 31 2
New Mexico 2 0 2 34 3 31 3 33 1

To no surprise Boise St, Alabama and Oklahoma are at the top while Nebraska might be a bit of a surprise as the Cornhuskers have been favored 34 times in the past three years. New Mexico is at the bottom of the chart with only being favored twice in the past three years (0-2 in those gms) while Rice surprisingly despite winning 10 games in the last three years has been a favorite just three times (3-0).    

Most Upset Losses 2009-2011

 

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  Games Wins as Upset Games Upset Lost as Actual Actual Net
Team Fav Fav Losses Dog Wins Dog Wins Losses Diff
Miami, Fl 29 18 11 9 4 5 22 16 -7
Illinois 23 13 10 15 4 11 17 21 -6
Notre Dame 28 19 9 10 3 7 22 16 -6
USF 23 14 9 15 7 8 21 17 -2
Oklahoma 37 29 8 3 1 2 30 10 -7
Houston 33 25 8 7 3 4 28 12 -5
Clemson 30 22 8 11 3 8 25 16 -5
Florida St 28 20 8 12 6 6 26 14 -2
Texas A&M 27 19 8 12 3 9 22 17 -5
Navy 26 18 8 13 6 7 24 15 -2
USC 31 24 7 7 3 4 27 11 -4
Southern Miss 30 23 7 10 4 6 27 13 -3
W Virginia 29 22 7 10 6 4 28 11 -1
Georgia 29 22 7 11 2 9 24 16 -5
Pittsburgh 28 21 7 11 3 8 24 15 -4
North Carolina 26 19 7 13 4 9 23 16 -3
California 25 18 7 12 2 10 20 17 -5
Troy 25 18 7 13 2 11 20 18 -5
Arizona 23 16 7 15 3 12 19 19 -4
Middle Tennessee 21 14 7 17 4 13 18 20 -3
Mississippi 21 14 7 16 1 15 15 22 -6
FIU 20 13 7 18 5 13 18 20 -2
Utah St 19 12 7 18 3 15 15 22 -4
Oregon St 15 8 7 22 8 14 16 21 1
Minnesota 14 7 7 23 5 18 12 25 -2
UAB 13 6 7 23 6 17 12 24 -1
Nebraska 34 28 6 7 1 6 29 12 -5
Texas 30 24 6 9 2 7 26 13 -4
Temple 28 22 6 10 4 6 26 12 -2
UCF 28 22 6 11 2 9 24 15 -4
Ohio 27 21 6 14 6 8 27 14 0
Georgia Tech 27 21 6 13 4 9 25 15 -2
Iowa 26 20 6 13 6 7 26 13 0
Toledo 22 16 6 16 6 10 22 16 0
Fresno St 21 15 6 18 5 13 20 19 -1
NC State 18 12 6 20 10 10 22 16 4
Connecticut 18 12 6 20 9 11 21 17 3
UTEP 16 10 6 20 5 15 15 22 -1
Bowling Green    12 6 6 25 8 17 14 23 2
Colorado St 11 5 6 25 4 21 9 27 -2
Virginia Tech 36 31 5 5 1 4 32 9 -4
Wisconsin 33 28 5 7 4 3 32 8 -1
Florida 32 27 5 8 1 7 28 12 -4
Ohio St 30 25 5 9 4 5 29 10 -1
Northern Illinois 29 24 5 12 5 7 29 12 0
Cincinnati 28 23 5 9 2 7 25 12 -3
South Carolina 27 22 5 13 5 8 27 13 0
Missouri 26 21 5 13 5 8 26 13 0
Michigan 24 19 5 14 4 10 23 15 -1
Texas Tech 23 18 5 15 4 11 22 16 -1
San Diego St 23 18 5 15 3 12 21 17 -2
SMU 22 17 5 18 6 12 23 17 1
Arkansas St 22 17 5 15 1 14 18 19 -4
Hawaii 21 16 5 19 6 13 22 18 1
Rutgers 19 14 5 19 8 11 22 16 3
Arizona St 19 14 5 18 2 16 16 21 -3
Boston College 18 13 5 20 6 14 19 19 1
Purdue 16 11 5 21 5 16 16 21 0
ULM 16 11 5 20 4 16 15 21 -1
Virginia 15 10 5 22 5 17 15 22 0
Buffalo 12 7 5 24 3 21 10 26 -2
Ball St 10 5 5 26 7 19 12 24 2
Florida Atlantic 9 4 5 27 6 21 10 26 1
Alabama 39 35 4 1 1 0 36 4 -3
Oregon 35 31 4 5 3 2 34 6 -1
Nevada 30 26 4 10 2 8 28 12 -2
Air Force 26 22 4 13 2 11 24 15 -2
Tulsa 23 19 4 15 4 11 23 15 0
Central Michigan 20 16 4 18 2 16 18 20 -2
W Michigan 18 14 4 19 4 15 18 19 0
Louisville 16 12 4 22 6 16 18 20 2
Kent St 16 12 4 20 3 17 15 21 -1
Syracuse 14 10 4 22 6 16 16 20 2
Maryland 13 9 4 24 4 20 13 24 0
Idaho 12 8 4 26 8 18 16 22 4
Vanderbilt 12 8 4 24 2 22 10 26 -2
Army 11 7 4 26 8 18 15 22 4
Colorado 8 4 4 29 7 22 11 26 3
San Jose St 8 4 4 29 4 25 8 29 0
TCU 36 33 3 3 3 0 36 3 0
Oklahoma St 33 30 3 6 2 4 32 7 -1
Stanford 32 29 3 7 2 5 31 8 -1
BYU 27 24 3 12 4 8 28 11 1
Penn St 27 24 3 12 3 9 27 12 0
Michigan St 26 23 3 14 5 9 28 12 2
Utah 26 23 3 13 5 8 28 11 2
Tennessee 20 17 3 18 1 17 18 20 -2
Baylor 19 16 3 19 5 14 21 17 2
Northwestern 17 14 3 22 7 15 21 18 4
East Carolina 15 12 3 24 8 16 20 19 5
Iowa St 13 10 3 25 8 17 18 20 5
Wake Forest 13 10 3 24 4 20 14 23 1
Louisiana 11 8 3 26 10 16 18 19 7
Kansas 10 7 3 26 3 23 10 26 0
UNLV 9 6 3 28 3 25 9 28 0
Duke 8 5 3 28 6 22 11 25 3
Tulane 7 4 3 30 5 25 9 28 2
North Texas 6 3 3 30 7 23 10 26 4
Westen Kentucky 5 2 3 31 7 24 9 27 4
Boise St 39 37 2 1 1 0 38 2 -1
Auburn 26 24 2 14 6 8 30 10 4
Mississippi St 19 17 2 19 4 15 21 17 2
Kansas St 15 13 2 22 10 12 23 14 8
Kentucky 15 13 2 23 5 18 18 20 3
Louisiana Tech 15 13 2 22 4 18 17 20 2
Washington 13 11 2 24 7 17 18 19 5
Wyoming 11 9 2 27 9 18 18 20 7
Miami, Oh 10 8 2 28 7 21 15 23 5
Indiana 9 7 2 27 3 24 10 26 1
Eastern Michigan 6 4 2 30 4 26 8 28 2
Akron 6 4 2 30 1 29 5 31 -1
New Mexico St 5 3 2 33 6 27 9 29 4
New Mexico 2 0 2 34 3 31 3 33 1
LSU 29 28 1 11 5 6 33 7 4
Arkansas 26 25 1 13 4 9 29 10 3
Marshall 13 12 1 25 7 18 19 19 6
Washington St 4 3 1 32 4 28 7 29 3
Memphis 3 2 1 33 3 30 5 31 2
UCLA 10 10 0 29 7 22 17 22 7
Rice 3 3 0 32 6 26 10 26 6

Classic underachieving teams top the list of suffering the most upset losses in the last three years as Miami, Fl has suffered 11, Illinois 10, Notre Dame 9 and USF 9. At the bottom of the list there is a bit of a surprise as UCLA in the last three years has suffered zero upset losses while going 10-0 as a favorite. Also notable Arkansas (25-1) and LSU (28-1) have great records as a favorite.    

Most Upset Wins 2009-2011

 

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  Games Wins as Upset Games Upset Lost as Actual Actual Net
Team Fav Fav Losses Dog Wins Dog Wins Losses Diff
NC State 18 12 6 20 10 10 22 16 4
Louisiana 11 8 3 26 10 16 18 19 7
Kansas St 15 13 2 22 10 12 23 14 8
Connecticut 18 12 6 20 9 11 21 17 3
Wyoming 11 9 2 27 9 18 18 20 7
Oregon St 15 8 7 22 8 14 16 21 1
Bowling Green    12 6 6 25 8 17 14 23 2
Rutgers 19 14 5 19 8 11 22 16 3
Idaho 12 8 4 26 8 18 16 22 4
Army 11 7 4 26 8 18 15 22 4
East Carolina 15 12 3 24 8 16 20 19 5
Iowa St 13 10 3 25 8 17 18 20 5
USF 23 14 9 15 7 8 21 17 -2
Ball St 10 5 5 26 7 19 12 24 2
Colorado 8 4 4 29 7 22 11 26 3
Northwestern 17 14 3 22 7 15 21 18 4
North Texas 6 3 3 30 7 23 10 26 4
Westen Kentucky 5 2 3 31 7 24 9 27 4
Washington 13 11 2 24 7 17 18 19 5
Miami, Oh 10 8 2 28 7 21 15 23 5
Marshall 13 12 1 25 7 18 19 19 6
UCLA 10 10 0 29 7 22 17 22 7
Florida St 28 20 8 12 6 6 26 14 -2
Navy 26 18 8 13 6 7 24 15 -2
W Virginia 29 22 7 10 6 4 28 11 -1
UAB 13 6 7 23 6 17 12 24 -1
Ohio 27 21 6 14 6 8 27 14 0
Iowa 26 20 6 13 6 7 26 13 0
Toledo 22 16 6 16 6 10 22 16 0
SMU 22 17 5 18 6 12 23 17 1
Hawaii 21 16 5 19 6 13 22 18 1
Boston College 18 13 5 20 6 14 19 19 1
Florida Atlantic 9 4 5 27 6 21 10 26 1
Louisville 16 12 4 22 6 16 18 20 2
Syracuse 14 10 4 22 6 16 16 20 2
Duke 8 5 3 28 6 22 11 25 3
Auburn 26 24 2 14 6 8 30 10 4
New Mexico St 5 3 2 33 6 27 9 29 4
Rice 3 3 0 32 6 26 10 26 6
FIU 20 13 7 18 5 13 18 20 -2
Minnesota 14 7 7 23 5 18 12 25 -2
Fresno St 21 15 6 18 5 13 20 19 -1
UTEP 16 10 6 20 5 15 15 22 -1
Northern Illinois 29 24 5 12 5 7 29 12 0
South Carolina 27 22 5 13 5 8 27 13 0
Missouri 26 21 5 13 5 8 26 13 0
Purdue 16 11 5 21 5 16 16 21 0
Virginia 15 10 5 22 5 17 15 22 0
Michigan St 26 23 3 14 5 9 28 12 2
Utah 26 23 3 13 5 8 28 11 2
Baylor 19 16 3 19 5 14 21 17 2
Tulane 7 4 3 30 5 25 9 28 2
Kentucky 15 13 2 23 5 18 18 20 3
LSU 29 28 1 11 5 6 33 7 4
Miami, Fl 29 18 11 9 4 5 22 16 -7
Illinois 23 13 10 15 4 11 17 21 -6
Southern Miss 30 23 7 10 4 6 27 13 -3
North Carolina 26 19 7 13 4 9 23 16 -3
Middle Tennessee 21 14 7 17 4 13 18 20 -3
Temple 28 22 6 10 4 6 26 12 -2
Georgia Tech 27 21 6 13 4 9 25 15 -2
Colorado St 11 5 6 25 4 21 9 27 -2
Wisconsin 33 28 5 7 4 3 32 8 -1
Ohio St 30 25 5 9 4 5 29 10 -1
Michigan 24 19 5 14 4 10 23 15 -1
Texas Tech 23 18 5 15 4 11 22 16 -1
ULM 16 11 5 20 4 16 15 21 -1
Tulsa 23 19 4 15 4 11 23 15 0
W Michigan 18 14 4 19 4 15 18 19 0
Maryland 13 9 4 24 4 20 13 24 0
San Jose St 8 4 4 29 4 25 8 29 0
BYU 27 24 3 12 4 8 28 11 1
Wake Forest 13 10 3 24 4 20 14 23 1
Mississippi St 19 17 2 19 4 15 21 17 2
Louisiana Tech 15 13 2 22 4 18 17 20 2
Eastern Michigan 6 4 2 30 4 26 8 28 2
Arkansas 26 25 1 13 4 9 29 10 3
Washington St 4 3 1 32 4 28 7 29 3
Notre Dame 28 19 9 10 3 7 22 16 -6
Houston 33 25 8 7 3 4 28 12 -5
Clemson 30 22 8 11 3 8 25 16 -5
Texas A&M 27 19 8 12 3 9 22 17 -5
USC 31 24 7 7 3 4 27 11 -4
Pittsburgh 28 21 7 11 3 8 24 15 -4
Arizona 23 16 7 15 3 12 19 19 -4
Utah St 19 12 7 18 3 15 15 22 -4
San Diego St 23 18 5 15 3 12 21 17 -2
Buffalo 12 7 5 24 3 21 10 26 -2
Oregon 35 31 4 5 3 2 34 6 -1
Kent St 16 12 4 20 3 17 15 21 -1
TCU 36 33 3 3 3 0 36 3 0
Penn St 27 24 3 12 3 9 27 12 0
Kansas 10 7 3 26 3 23 10 26 0
UNLV 9 6 3 28 3 25 9 28 0
Indiana 9 7 2 27 3 24 10 26 1
New Mexico 2 0 2 34 3 31 3 33 1
Memphis 3 2 1 33 3 30 5 31 2
Georgia 29 22 7 11 2 9 24 16 -5
California 25 18 7 12 2 10 20 17 -5
Troy 25 18 7 13 2 11 20 18 -5
Texas 30 24 6 9 2 7 26 13 -4
UCF 28 22 6 11 2 9 24 15 -4
Cincinnati 28 23 5 9 2 7 25 12 -3
Arizona St 19 14 5 18 2 16 16 21 -3
Nevada 30 26 4 10 2 8 28 12 -2
Air Force 26 22 4 13 2 11 24 15 -2
Central Michigan 20 16 4 18 2 16 18 20 -2
Vanderbilt 12 8 4 24 2 22 10 26 -2
Oklahoma St 33 30 3 6 2 4 32 7 -1
Stanford 32 29 3 7 2 5 31 8 -1
Oklahoma 37 29 8 3 1 2 30 10 -7
Mississippi 21 14 7 16 1 15 15 22 -6
Nebraska 34 28 6 7 1 6 29 12 -5
Virginia Tech 36 31 5 5 1 4 32 9 -4
Florida 32 27 5 8 1 7 28 12 -4
Arkansas St 22 17 5 15 1 14 18 19 -4
Alabama 39 35 4 1 1 0 36 4 -3
Tennessee 20 17 3 18 1 17 18 20 -2
Boise St 39 37 2 1 1 0 38 2 -1
Akron 6 4 2 30 1 29 5 31 -1

Three teams have each achieved 10 upset wins in the last three years in NC State, Louisiana and Kansas St who had six upset wins alone last year. It is not a bad thing to be at the bottom of this chart as teams Alabama and Boise St both have just one upset win but both have been an underdog just once in the past three years.  It is interesting to note that Akron has just one upset win in 30 tries while Tennessee has just one upset the last three years despite being a dog in 18 games! 

Finally I wanted to see which teams at least according to the Las Vegas point spread overachieve and underachieve so I took a look at the Net Win differential between the team’s actual win/loss record compared to the number of times they were favored.

# of Games Favored Vs Actual W/L Record
Net Differential 2009-2011

 

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  Games Wins as Upset Games Upset Lost as Actual Actual Net
Team Fav Fav Losses Dog Wins Dog Wins Losses Diff
Kansas St 15 13 2 22 10 12 23 14 8
Louisiana 11 8 3 26 10 16 18 19 7
Wyoming 11 9 2 27 9 18 18 20 7
UCLA 10 10 0 29 7 22 17 22 7
Marshall 13 12 1 25 7 18 19 19 6
Rice 3 3 0 32 6 26 10 26 6
East Carolina 15 12 3 24 8 16 20 19 5
Iowa St 13 10 3 25 8 17 18 20 5
Washington 13 11 2 24 7 17 18 19 5
Miami, Oh 10 8 2 28 7 21 15 23 5
NC State 18 12 6 20 10 10 22 16 4
Idaho 12 8 4 26 8 18 16 22 4
Army 11 7 4 26 8 18 15 22 4
Northwestern 17 14 3 22 7 15 21 18 4
North Texas 6 3 3 30 7 23 10 26 4
Westen Kentucky 5 2 3 31 7 24 9 27 4
Auburn 26 24 2 14 6 8 30 10 4
New Mexico St 5 3 2 33 6 27 9 29 4
LSU 29 28 1 11 5 6 33 7 4
Connecticut 18 12 6 20 9 11 21 17 3
Rutgers 19 14 5 19 8 11 22 16 3
Colorado 8 4 4 29 7 22 11 26 3
Duke 8 5 3 28 6 22 11 25 3
Kentucky 15 13 2 23 5 18 18 20 3
Arkansas 26 25 1 13 4 9 29 10 3
Washington St 4 3 1 32 4 28 7 29 3
Bowling Green    12 6 6 25 8 17 14 23 2
Ball St 10 5 5 26 7 19 12 24 2
Louisville 16 12 4 22 6 16 18 20 2
Syracuse 14 10 4 22 6 16 16 20 2
Michigan St 26 23 3 14 5 9 28 12 2
Utah 26 23 3 13 5 8 28 11 2
Baylor 19 16 3 19 5 14 21 17 2
Tulane 7 4 3 30 5 25 9 28 2
Mississippi St 19 17 2 19 4 15 21 17 2
Louisiana Tech 15 13 2 22 4 18 17 20 2
Eastern Michigan 6 4 2 30 4 26 8 28 2
Memphis 3 2 1 33 3 30 5 31 2
Oregon St 15 8 7 22 8 14 16 21 1
SMU 22 17 5 18 6 12 23 17 1
Hawaii 21 16 5 19 6 13 22 18 1
Boston College 18 13 5 20 6 14 19 19 1
Florida Atlantic 9 4 5 27 6 21 10 26 1
BYU 27 24 3 12 4 8 28 11 1
Wake Forest 13 10 3 24 4 20 14 23 1
Indiana 9 7 2 27 3 24 10 26 1
New Mexico 2 0 2 34 3 31 3 33 1
Ohio 27 21 6 14 6 8 27 14 0
Iowa 26 20 6 13 6 7 26 13 0
Toledo 22 16 6 16 6 10 22 16 0
Northern Illinois 29 24 5 12 5 7 29 12 0
South Carolina 27 22 5 13 5 8 27 13 0
Missouri 26 21 5 13 5 8 26 13 0
Purdue 16 11 5 21 5 16 16 21 0
Virginia 15 10 5 22 5 17 15 22 0
Tulsa 23 19 4 15 4 11 23 15 0
W Michigan 18 14 4 19 4 15 18 19 0
Maryland 13 9 4 24 4 20 13 24 0
San Jose St 8 4 4 29 4 25 8 29 0
TCU 36 33 3 3 3 0 36 3 0
Penn St 27 24 3 12 3 9 27 12 0
Kansas 10 7 3 26 3 23 10 26 0
UNLV 9 6 3 28 3 25 9 28 0
W Virginia 29 22 7 10 6 4 28 11 -1
UAB 13 6 7 23 6 17 12 24 -1
Fresno St 21 15 6 18 5 13 20 19 -1
UTEP 16 10 6 20 5 15 15 22 -1
Wisconsin 33 28 5 7 4 3 32 8 -1
Ohio St 30 25 5 9 4 5 29 10 -1
Michigan 24 19 5 14 4 10 23 15 -1
Texas Tech 23 18 5 15 4 11 22 16 -1
ULM 16 11 5 20 4 16 15 21 -1
Oregon 35 31 4 5 3 2 34 6 -1
Kent St 16 12 4 20 3 17 15 21 -1
Oklahoma St 33 30 3 6 2 4 32 7 -1
Stanford 32 29 3 7 2 5 31 8 -1
Boise St 39 37 2 1 1 0 38 2 -1
Akron 6 4 2 30 1 29 5 31 -1
USF 23 14 9 15 7 8 21 17 -2
Florida St 28 20 8 12 6 6 26 14 -2
Navy 26 18 8 13 6 7 24 15 -2
FIU 20 13 7 18 5 13 18 20 -2
Minnesota 14 7 7 23 5 18 12 25 -2
Temple 28 22 6 10 4 6 26 12 -2
Georgia Tech 27 21 6 13 4 9 25 15 -2
Colorado St 11 5 6 25 4 21 9 27 -2
San Diego St 23 18 5 15 3 12 21 17 -2
Buffalo 12 7 5 24 3 21 10 26 -2
Nevada 30 26 4 10 2 8 28 12 -2
Air Force 26 22 4 13 2 11 24 15 -2
Central Michigan 20 16 4 18 2 16 18 20 -2
Vanderbilt 12 8 4 24 2 22 10 26 -2
Tennessee 20 17 3 18 1 17 18 20 -2
Southern Miss 30 23 7 10 4 6 27 13 -3
North Carolina 26 19 7 13 4 9 23 16 -3
Middle Tennessee 21 14 7 17 4 13 18 20 -3
Cincinnati 28 23 5 9 2 7 25 12 -3
Arizona St 19 14 5 18 2 16 16 21 -3
Alabama 39 35 4 1 1 0 36 4 -3
USC 31 24 7 7 3 4 27 11 -4
Pittsburgh 28 21 7 11 3 8 24 15 -4
Arizona 23 16 7 15 3 12 19 19 -4
Utah St 19 12 7 18 3 15 15 22 -4
Texas 30 24 6 9 2 7 26 13 -4
UCF 28 22 6 11 2 9 24 15 -4
Virginia Tech 36 31 5 5 1 4 32 9 -4
Florida 32 27 5 8 1 7 28 12 -4
Arkansas St 22 17 5 15 1 14 18 19 -4
Houston 33 25 8 7 3 4 28 12 -5
Clemson 30 22 8 11 3 8 25 16 -5
Texas A&M 27 19 8 12 3 9 22 17 -5
Georgia 29 22 7 11 2 9 24 16 -5
California 25 18 7 12 2 10 20 17 -5
Troy 25 18 7 13 2 11 20 18 -5
Nebraska 34 28 6 7 1 6 29 12 -5
Illinois 23 13 10 15 4 11 17 21 -6
Notre Dame 28 19 9 10 3 7 22 16 -6
Mississippi 21 14 7 16 1 15 15 22 -6
Miami, Fl 29 18 11 9 4 5 22 16 -7
Oklahoma 37 29 8 3 1 2 30 10 -7

There is a reason why Bill Snyder is one of the greatest coaches of all-time as Kansas St has been favored just 15 times in the last three years but have gone 23-14 for a +8 net differential. At the bottom is Oklahoma and Miami, Fl with a -7 net differential although the Sooners have been favored in 37 out of 40 games so naturally you would expect at least a small net differential like you see with teams like Alabama, USC and Florida. Other perennial underachievers Illinois and Notre Dame also come in at the bottom of the chart.

In a couple of weeks once I put in the data I will re-visit this topic and take a look at the past 10 and even 20 years!

Only 41 Days Left Until the First College Football Game!