| Daily Blog •July 20, 2012 |
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At SEC Media Days, Steve Spurrier mentioned that despite winning a school record 11 games last year he jokingly said that he might not have done that great of a job since the Gamecocks were favored in 12 games last year.
This got me thinking about how many times a team has been favored, how many times they have suffered upset losses and similarily how many times they have been a dog along with the number of upset wins they have pulled. I also thought it would be interesting to look at the differential between the number of times a team was favored and their actual win/loss record.
Since looking at one year is usually not enough of a data point to make a general conclusion, I decided to look at the past three years for my study. The lines used to decide the fav/dog records came straight from my magazine.
# Of Games Favored 2009-2011
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
|
| Games | Wins as | Upset | Games | Upset | Lost as | Actual | Actual | Net | |
| Team | Fav | Fav | Losses | Dog | Wins | Dog | Wins | Losses | Diff |
| Boise St | 39 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 2 | -1 |
| Alabama | 39 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 4 | -3 |
| Oklahoma | 37 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 10 | -7 |
| TCU | 36 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | 36 | 31 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 9 | -4 |
| Oregon | 35 | 31 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 6 | -1 |
| Nebraska | 34 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 12 | -5 |
| Wisconsin | 33 | 28 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 8 | -1 |
| Oklahoma St | 33 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 7 | -1 |
| Houston | 33 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 12 | -5 |
| Stanford | 32 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 8 | -1 |
| Florida | 32 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 12 | -4 |
| USC | 31 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 11 | -4 |
| Ohio St | 30 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 10 | -1 |
| Nevada | 30 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 12 | -2 |
| Southern Miss | 30 | 23 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 13 | -3 |
| Texas | 30 | 24 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 13 | -4 |
| Clemson | 30 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 16 | -5 |
| LSU | 29 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 7 | 4 |
| Northern Illinois | 29 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 12 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 29 | 22 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 11 | -1 |
| Georgia | 29 | 22 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 16 | -5 |
| Miami, Fl | 29 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 16 | -7 |
| Temple | 28 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 12 | -2 |
| Florida St | 28 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 14 | -2 |
| Cincinnati | 28 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 12 | -3 |
| Pittsburgh | 28 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 15 | -4 |
| UCF | 28 | 22 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 15 | -4 |
| Notre Dame | 28 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 16 | -6 |
| BYU | 27 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 1 |
| Penn St | 27 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 12 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 27 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 13 | 0 |
| Ohio | 27 | 21 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 14 | 0 |
| Georgia Tech | 27 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 15 | -2 |
| Texas A&M | 27 | 19 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 17 | -5 |
| Auburn | 26 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 10 | 4 |
| Arkansas | 26 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 10 | 3 |
| Michigan St | 26 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 12 | 2 |
| Utah | 26 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 2 |
| Iowa | 26 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 13 | 0 |
| Missouri | 26 | 21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 13 | 0 |
| Air Force | 26 | 22 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 15 | -2 |
| Navy | 26 | 18 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 15 | -2 |
| North Carolina | 26 | 19 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 16 | -3 |
| California | 25 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 17 | -5 |
| Troy | 25 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 18 | -5 |
| Michigan | 24 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 15 | -1 |
| Tulsa | 23 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 15 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | 23 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 16 | -1 |
| San Diego St | 23 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 17 | -2 |
| USF | 23 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 17 | -2 |
| Arizona | 23 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 19 | -4 |
| Illinois | 23 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 21 | -6 |
| SMU | 22 | 17 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 17 | 1 |
| Toledo | 22 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 0 |
| Arkansas St | 22 | 17 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 18 | 19 | -4 |
| Hawaii | 21 | 16 | 5 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 18 | 1 |
| Fresno St | 21 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 19 | -1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 20 | -3 |
| Mississippi | 21 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -6 |
| Tennessee | 20 | 17 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Central Michigan | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| FIU | 20 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Rutgers | 19 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 16 | 3 |
| Baylor | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 17 | 2 |
| Mississippi St | 19 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 2 |
| Arizona St | 19 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 21 | -3 |
| Utah St | 19 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -4 |
| NC State | 18 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 4 |
| Connecticut | 18 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 17 | 3 |
| Boston College | 18 | 13 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 1 |
| W Michigan | 18 | 14 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 0 |
| Northwestern | 17 | 14 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 4 |
| Louisville | 16 | 12 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 2 |
| Purdue | 16 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 21 | 0 |
| UTEP | 16 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -1 |
| Kent St | 16 | 12 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 21 | -1 |
| ULM | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 21 | -1 |
| Kansas St | 15 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 23 | 14 | 8 |
| East Carolina | 15 | 12 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 5 |
| Kentucky | 15 | 13 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 3 |
| Louisiana Tech | 15 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 2 |
| Oregon St | 15 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 21 | 1 |
| Virginia | 15 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 22 | 0 |
| Syracuse | 14 | 10 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 2 |
| Minnesota | 14 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 25 | -2 |
| Marshall | 13 | 12 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 6 |
| Iowa St | 13 | 10 | 3 | 25 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 5 |
| Washington | 13 | 11 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 5 |
| Wake Forest | 13 | 10 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 23 | 1 |
| Maryland | 13 | 9 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 24 | 0 |
| UAB | 13 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 12 | 24 | -1 |
| Idaho | 12 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 16 | 22 | 4 |
| Bowling Green | 12 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 8 | 17 | 14 | 23 | 2 |
| Vanderbilt | 12 | 8 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 26 | -2 |
| Buffalo | 12 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 26 | -2 |
| Wyoming | 11 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 7 |
| Louisiana | 11 | 8 | 3 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 7 |
| Army | 11 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 15 | 22 | 4 |
| Colorado St | 11 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 27 | -2 |
| UCLA | 10 | 10 | 0 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 17 | 22 | 7 |
| Miami, Oh | 10 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 15 | 23 | 5 |
| Ball St | 10 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 24 | 2 |
| Kansas | 10 | 7 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 23 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| Indiana | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 3 | 24 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
| Florida Atlantic | 9 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 6 | 21 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
| UNLV | 9 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Colorado | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 11 | 26 | 3 |
| Duke | 8 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 11 | 25 | 3 |
| San Jose St | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 25 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Tulane | 7 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 25 | 9 | 28 | 2 |
| North Texas | 6 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 10 | 26 | 4 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 28 | 2 |
| Akron | 6 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 29 | 5 | 31 | -1 |
| New Mexico St | 5 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 29 | 4 |
| Westen Kentucky | 5 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| Washington St | 4 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 4 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 3 |
| Rice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 6 | 26 | 10 | 26 | 6 |
| Memphis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 31 | 2 |
| New Mexico | 2 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 3 | 31 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
To no surprise Boise St, Alabama and Oklahoma are at the top while Nebraska might be a bit of a surprise as the Cornhuskers have been favored 34 times in the past three years. New Mexico is at the bottom of the chart with only being favored twice in the past three years (0-2 in those gms) while Rice surprisingly despite winning 10 games in the last three years has been a favorite just three times (3-0).
Most Upset Losses 2009-2011
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
|
| Games | Wins as | Upset | Games | Upset | Lost as | Actual | Actual | Net | |
| Team | Fav | Fav | Losses | Dog | Wins | Dog | Wins | Losses | Diff |
| Miami, Fl | 29 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 16 | -7 |
| Illinois | 23 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 21 | -6 |
| Notre Dame | 28 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 16 | -6 |
| USF | 23 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 17 | -2 |
| Oklahoma | 37 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 10 | -7 |
| Houston | 33 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 12 | -5 |
| Clemson | 30 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 16 | -5 |
| Florida St | 28 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 14 | -2 |
| Texas A&M | 27 | 19 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 17 | -5 |
| Navy | 26 | 18 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 15 | -2 |
| USC | 31 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 11 | -4 |
| Southern Miss | 30 | 23 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 13 | -3 |
| W Virginia | 29 | 22 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 11 | -1 |
| Georgia | 29 | 22 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 16 | -5 |
| Pittsburgh | 28 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 15 | -4 |
| North Carolina | 26 | 19 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 16 | -3 |
| California | 25 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 17 | -5 |
| Troy | 25 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 18 | -5 |
| Arizona | 23 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 19 | -4 |
| Middle Tennessee | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 20 | -3 |
| Mississippi | 21 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -6 |
| FIU | 20 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Utah St | 19 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -4 |
| Oregon St | 15 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 21 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 14 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 25 | -2 |
| UAB | 13 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 12 | 24 | -1 |
| Nebraska | 34 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 12 | -5 |
| Texas | 30 | 24 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 13 | -4 |
| Temple | 28 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 12 | -2 |
| UCF | 28 | 22 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 15 | -4 |
| Ohio | 27 | 21 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 14 | 0 |
| Georgia Tech | 27 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 15 | -2 |
| Iowa | 26 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 13 | 0 |
| Toledo | 22 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 0 |
| Fresno St | 21 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 19 | -1 |
| NC State | 18 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 4 |
| Connecticut | 18 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 17 | 3 |
| UTEP | 16 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -1 |
| Bowling Green | 12 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 8 | 17 | 14 | 23 | 2 |
| Colorado St | 11 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 27 | -2 |
| Virginia Tech | 36 | 31 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 9 | -4 |
| Wisconsin | 33 | 28 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 8 | -1 |
| Florida | 32 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 12 | -4 |
| Ohio St | 30 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 10 | -1 |
| Northern Illinois | 29 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 12 | 0 |
| Cincinnati | 28 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 12 | -3 |
| South Carolina | 27 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 13 | 0 |
| Missouri | 26 | 21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 13 | 0 |
| Michigan | 24 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 15 | -1 |
| Texas Tech | 23 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 16 | -1 |
| San Diego St | 23 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 17 | -2 |
| SMU | 22 | 17 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 17 | 1 |
| Arkansas St | 22 | 17 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 18 | 19 | -4 |
| Hawaii | 21 | 16 | 5 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 18 | 1 |
| Rutgers | 19 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 16 | 3 |
| Arizona St | 19 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 21 | -3 |
| Boston College | 18 | 13 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 1 |
| Purdue | 16 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 21 | 0 |
| ULM | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 21 | -1 |
| Virginia | 15 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 22 | 0 |
| Buffalo | 12 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 26 | -2 |
| Ball St | 10 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 24 | 2 |
| Florida Atlantic | 9 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 6 | 21 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
| Alabama | 39 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 4 | -3 |
| Oregon | 35 | 31 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 6 | -1 |
| Nevada | 30 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 12 | -2 |
| Air Force | 26 | 22 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 15 | -2 |
| Tulsa | 23 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 15 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| W Michigan | 18 | 14 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 0 |
| Louisville | 16 | 12 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 2 |
| Kent St | 16 | 12 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 21 | -1 |
| Syracuse | 14 | 10 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 2 |
| Maryland | 13 | 9 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 24 | 0 |
| Idaho | 12 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 16 | 22 | 4 |
| Vanderbilt | 12 | 8 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 26 | -2 |
| Army | 11 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 15 | 22 | 4 |
| Colorado | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 11 | 26 | 3 |
| San Jose St | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 25 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| TCU | 36 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 0 |
| Oklahoma St | 33 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 7 | -1 |
| Stanford | 32 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 8 | -1 |
| BYU | 27 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 1 |
| Penn St | 27 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 12 | 0 |
| Michigan St | 26 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 12 | 2 |
| Utah | 26 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 2 |
| Tennessee | 20 | 17 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Baylor | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 17 | 2 |
| Northwestern | 17 | 14 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 4 |
| East Carolina | 15 | 12 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 5 |
| Iowa St | 13 | 10 | 3 | 25 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 5 |
| Wake Forest | 13 | 10 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 23 | 1 |
| Louisiana | 11 | 8 | 3 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 7 |
| Kansas | 10 | 7 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 23 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| UNLV | 9 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Duke | 8 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 11 | 25 | 3 |
| Tulane | 7 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 25 | 9 | 28 | 2 |
| North Texas | 6 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 10 | 26 | 4 |
| Westen Kentucky | 5 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| Boise St | 39 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 2 | -1 |
| Auburn | 26 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 10 | 4 |
| Mississippi St | 19 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 2 |
| Kansas St | 15 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 23 | 14 | 8 |
| Kentucky | 15 | 13 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 3 |
| Louisiana Tech | 15 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 2 |
| Washington | 13 | 11 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 5 |
| Wyoming | 11 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 7 |
| Miami, Oh | 10 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 15 | 23 | 5 |
| Indiana | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 3 | 24 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 28 | 2 |
| Akron | 6 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 29 | 5 | 31 | -1 |
| New Mexico St | 5 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 29 | 4 |
| New Mexico | 2 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 3 | 31 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| LSU | 29 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 7 | 4 |
| Arkansas | 26 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 10 | 3 |
| Marshall | 13 | 12 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 6 |
| Washington St | 4 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 4 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 3 |
| Memphis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 31 | 2 |
| UCLA | 10 | 10 | 0 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 17 | 22 | 7 |
| Rice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 6 | 26 | 10 | 26 | 6 |
Classic underachieving teams top the list of suffering the most upset losses in the last three years as Miami, Fl has suffered 11, Illinois 10, Notre Dame 9 and USF 9. At the bottom of the list there is a bit of a surprise as UCLA in the last three years has suffered zero upset losses while going 10-0 as a favorite. Also notable Arkansas (25-1) and LSU (28-1) have great records as a favorite.
Most Upset Wins 2009-2011
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
|
| Games | Wins as | Upset | Games | Upset | Lost as | Actual | Actual | Net | |
| Team | Fav | Fav | Losses | Dog | Wins | Dog | Wins | Losses | Diff |
| NC State | 18 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 4 |
| Louisiana | 11 | 8 | 3 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 7 |
| Kansas St | 15 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 23 | 14 | 8 |
| Connecticut | 18 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 17 | 3 |
| Wyoming | 11 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 7 |
| Oregon St | 15 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 21 | 1 |
| Bowling Green | 12 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 8 | 17 | 14 | 23 | 2 |
| Rutgers | 19 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 16 | 3 |
| Idaho | 12 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 16 | 22 | 4 |
| Army | 11 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 15 | 22 | 4 |
| East Carolina | 15 | 12 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 5 |
| Iowa St | 13 | 10 | 3 | 25 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 5 |
| USF | 23 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 17 | -2 |
| Ball St | 10 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 24 | 2 |
| Colorado | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 11 | 26 | 3 |
| Northwestern | 17 | 14 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 4 |
| North Texas | 6 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 10 | 26 | 4 |
| Westen Kentucky | 5 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| Washington | 13 | 11 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 5 |
| Miami, Oh | 10 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 15 | 23 | 5 |
| Marshall | 13 | 12 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 6 |
| UCLA | 10 | 10 | 0 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 17 | 22 | 7 |
| Florida St | 28 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 14 | -2 |
| Navy | 26 | 18 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 15 | -2 |
| W Virginia | 29 | 22 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 11 | -1 |
| UAB | 13 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 12 | 24 | -1 |
| Ohio | 27 | 21 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 14 | 0 |
| Iowa | 26 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 13 | 0 |
| Toledo | 22 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 0 |
| SMU | 22 | 17 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 17 | 1 |
| Hawaii | 21 | 16 | 5 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 18 | 1 |
| Boston College | 18 | 13 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 1 |
| Florida Atlantic | 9 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 6 | 21 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
| Louisville | 16 | 12 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 2 |
| Syracuse | 14 | 10 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 2 |
| Duke | 8 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 11 | 25 | 3 |
| Auburn | 26 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 10 | 4 |
| New Mexico St | 5 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 29 | 4 |
| Rice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 6 | 26 | 10 | 26 | 6 |
| FIU | 20 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Minnesota | 14 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 25 | -2 |
| Fresno St | 21 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 19 | -1 |
| UTEP | 16 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -1 |
| Northern Illinois | 29 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 12 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 27 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 13 | 0 |
| Missouri | 26 | 21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 13 | 0 |
| Purdue | 16 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 21 | 0 |
| Virginia | 15 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 22 | 0 |
| Michigan St | 26 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 12 | 2 |
| Utah | 26 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 2 |
| Baylor | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 17 | 2 |
| Tulane | 7 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 25 | 9 | 28 | 2 |
| Kentucky | 15 | 13 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 3 |
| LSU | 29 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 7 | 4 |
| Miami, Fl | 29 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 16 | -7 |
| Illinois | 23 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 21 | -6 |
| Southern Miss | 30 | 23 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 13 | -3 |
| North Carolina | 26 | 19 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 16 | -3 |
| Middle Tennessee | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 20 | -3 |
| Temple | 28 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 12 | -2 |
| Georgia Tech | 27 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 15 | -2 |
| Colorado St | 11 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 27 | -2 |
| Wisconsin | 33 | 28 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 8 | -1 |
| Ohio St | 30 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 10 | -1 |
| Michigan | 24 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 15 | -1 |
| Texas Tech | 23 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 16 | -1 |
| ULM | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 21 | -1 |
| Tulsa | 23 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 15 | 0 |
| W Michigan | 18 | 14 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 0 |
| Maryland | 13 | 9 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 24 | 0 |
| San Jose St | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 25 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| BYU | 27 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 1 |
| Wake Forest | 13 | 10 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 23 | 1 |
| Mississippi St | 19 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 15 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 28 | 2 |
| Arkansas | 26 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 10 | 3 |
| Washington St | 4 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 4 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 3 |
| Notre Dame | 28 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 16 | -6 |
| Houston | 33 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 12 | -5 |
| Clemson | 30 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 16 | -5 |
| Texas A&M | 27 | 19 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 17 | -5 |
| USC | 31 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 11 | -4 |
| Pittsburgh | 28 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 15 | -4 |
| Arizona | 23 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 19 | -4 |
| Utah St | 19 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -4 |
| San Diego St | 23 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 17 | -2 |
| Buffalo | 12 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 26 | -2 |
| Oregon | 35 | 31 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 6 | -1 |
| Kent St | 16 | 12 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 21 | -1 |
| TCU | 36 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 0 |
| Penn St | 27 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 12 | 0 |
| Kansas | 10 | 7 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 23 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| UNLV | 9 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Indiana | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 3 | 24 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
| New Mexico | 2 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 3 | 31 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Memphis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 31 | 2 |
| Georgia | 29 | 22 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 16 | -5 |
| California | 25 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 17 | -5 |
| Troy | 25 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 18 | -5 |
| Texas | 30 | 24 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 13 | -4 |
| UCF | 28 | 22 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 15 | -4 |
| Cincinnati | 28 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 12 | -3 |
| Arizona St | 19 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 21 | -3 |
| Nevada | 30 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 12 | -2 |
| Air Force | 26 | 22 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 15 | -2 |
| Central Michigan | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Vanderbilt | 12 | 8 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 26 | -2 |
| Oklahoma St | 33 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 7 | -1 |
| Stanford | 32 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 8 | -1 |
| Oklahoma | 37 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 10 | -7 |
| Mississippi | 21 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -6 |
| Nebraska | 34 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 12 | -5 |
| Virginia Tech | 36 | 31 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 9 | -4 |
| Florida | 32 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 12 | -4 |
| Arkansas St | 22 | 17 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 18 | 19 | -4 |
| Alabama | 39 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 4 | -3 |
| Tennessee | 20 | 17 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Boise St | 39 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 2 | -1 |
| Akron | 6 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 29 | 5 | 31 | -1 |
Three teams have each achieved 10 upset wins in the last three years in NC State, Louisiana and Kansas St who had six upset wins alone last year. It is not a bad thing to be at the bottom of this chart as teams Alabama and Boise St both have just one upset win but both have been an underdog just once in the past three years. It is interesting to note that Akron has just one upset win in 30 tries while Tennessee has just one upset the last three years despite being a dog in 18 games!
Finally I wanted to see which teams at least according to the Las Vegas point spread overachieve and underachieve so I took a look at the Net Win differential between the team’s actual win/loss record compared to the number of times they were favored.
# of Games Favored Vs Actual W/L Record
Net Differential 2009-2011
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
'09-'11 |
|
| Games | Wins as | Upset | Games | Upset | Lost as | Actual | Actual | Net | |
| Team | Fav | Fav | Losses | Dog | Wins | Dog | Wins | Losses | Diff |
| Kansas St | 15 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 23 | 14 | 8 |
| Louisiana | 11 | 8 | 3 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 7 |
| Wyoming | 11 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 7 |
| UCLA | 10 | 10 | 0 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 17 | 22 | 7 |
| Marshall | 13 | 12 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 6 |
| Rice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 6 | 26 | 10 | 26 | 6 |
| East Carolina | 15 | 12 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 5 |
| Iowa St | 13 | 10 | 3 | 25 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 5 |
| Washington | 13 | 11 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 5 |
| Miami, Oh | 10 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 15 | 23 | 5 |
| NC State | 18 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 4 |
| Idaho | 12 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 16 | 22 | 4 |
| Army | 11 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 15 | 22 | 4 |
| Northwestern | 17 | 14 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 4 |
| North Texas | 6 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 10 | 26 | 4 |
| Westen Kentucky | 5 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| Auburn | 26 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 10 | 4 |
| New Mexico St | 5 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 29 | 4 |
| LSU | 29 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 7 | 4 |
| Connecticut | 18 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 17 | 3 |
| Rutgers | 19 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 16 | 3 |
| Colorado | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 11 | 26 | 3 |
| Duke | 8 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 11 | 25 | 3 |
| Kentucky | 15 | 13 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 3 |
| Arkansas | 26 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 10 | 3 |
| Washington St | 4 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 4 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 3 |
| Bowling Green | 12 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 8 | 17 | 14 | 23 | 2 |
| Ball St | 10 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 24 | 2 |
| Louisville | 16 | 12 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 2 |
| Syracuse | 14 | 10 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 2 |
| Michigan St | 26 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 12 | 2 |
| Utah | 26 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 2 |
| Baylor | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 17 | 2 |
| Tulane | 7 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 25 | 9 | 28 | 2 |
| Mississippi St | 19 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 15 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 28 | 2 |
| Memphis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 31 | 2 |
| Oregon St | 15 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 21 | 1 |
| SMU | 22 | 17 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 17 | 1 |
| Hawaii | 21 | 16 | 5 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 18 | 1 |
| Boston College | 18 | 13 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 1 |
| Florida Atlantic | 9 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 6 | 21 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
| BYU | 27 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 1 |
| Wake Forest | 13 | 10 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 23 | 1 |
| Indiana | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 3 | 24 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
| New Mexico | 2 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 3 | 31 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Ohio | 27 | 21 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 14 | 0 |
| Iowa | 26 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 13 | 0 |
| Toledo | 22 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | 29 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 12 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 27 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 13 | 0 |
| Missouri | 26 | 21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 13 | 0 |
| Purdue | 16 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 21 | 0 |
| Virginia | 15 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 22 | 0 |
| Tulsa | 23 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 15 | 0 |
| W Michigan | 18 | 14 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 0 |
| Maryland | 13 | 9 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 24 | 0 |
| San Jose St | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 25 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| TCU | 36 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 0 |
| Penn St | 27 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 12 | 0 |
| Kansas | 10 | 7 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 23 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| UNLV | 9 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| W Virginia | 29 | 22 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 11 | -1 |
| UAB | 13 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 12 | 24 | -1 |
| Fresno St | 21 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 19 | -1 |
| UTEP | 16 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -1 |
| Wisconsin | 33 | 28 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 8 | -1 |
| Ohio St | 30 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 10 | -1 |
| Michigan | 24 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 15 | -1 |
| Texas Tech | 23 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 16 | -1 |
| ULM | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 21 | -1 |
| Oregon | 35 | 31 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 6 | -1 |
| Kent St | 16 | 12 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 21 | -1 |
| Oklahoma St | 33 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 7 | -1 |
| Stanford | 32 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 8 | -1 |
| Boise St | 39 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 2 | -1 |
| Akron | 6 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 29 | 5 | 31 | -1 |
| USF | 23 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 17 | -2 |
| Florida St | 28 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 14 | -2 |
| Navy | 26 | 18 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 15 | -2 |
| FIU | 20 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Minnesota | 14 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 25 | -2 |
| Temple | 28 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 12 | -2 |
| Georgia Tech | 27 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 15 | -2 |
| Colorado St | 11 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 27 | -2 |
| San Diego St | 23 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 17 | -2 |
| Buffalo | 12 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 26 | -2 |
| Nevada | 30 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 12 | -2 |
| Air Force | 26 | 22 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 15 | -2 |
| Central Michigan | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Vanderbilt | 12 | 8 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 26 | -2 |
| Tennessee | 20 | 17 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Southern Miss | 30 | 23 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 13 | -3 |
| North Carolina | 26 | 19 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 16 | -3 |
| Middle Tennessee | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 20 | -3 |
| Cincinnati | 28 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 12 | -3 |
| Arizona St | 19 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 21 | -3 |
| Alabama | 39 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 4 | -3 |
| USC | 31 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 11 | -4 |
| Pittsburgh | 28 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 15 | -4 |
| Arizona | 23 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 19 | -4 |
| Utah St | 19 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -4 |
| Texas | 30 | 24 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 13 | -4 |
| UCF | 28 | 22 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 15 | -4 |
| Virginia Tech | 36 | 31 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 9 | -4 |
| Florida | 32 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 12 | -4 |
| Arkansas St | 22 | 17 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 18 | 19 | -4 |
| Houston | 33 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 12 | -5 |
| Clemson | 30 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 16 | -5 |
| Texas A&M | 27 | 19 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 17 | -5 |
| Georgia | 29 | 22 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 16 | -5 |
| California | 25 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 17 | -5 |
| Troy | 25 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 18 | -5 |
| Nebraska | 34 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 12 | -5 |
| Illinois | 23 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 21 | -6 |
| Notre Dame | 28 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 16 | -6 |
| Mississippi | 21 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 22 | -6 |
| Miami, Fl | 29 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 16 | -7 |
| Oklahoma | 37 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 10 | -7 |
There is a reason why Bill Snyder is one of the greatest coaches of all-time as Kansas St has been favored just 15 times in the last three years but have gone 23-14 for a +8 net differential. At the bottom is Oklahoma and Miami, Fl with a -7 net differential although the Sooners have been favored in 37 out of 40 games so naturally you would expect at least a small net differential like you see with teams like Alabama, USC and Florida. Other perennial underachievers Illinois and Notre Dame also come in at the bottom of the chart.
In a couple of weeks once I put in the data I will re-visit this topic and take a look at the past 10 and even 20 years!