| Daily Blog •July 24, 2012 |
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I am always trying to find new and hopefully more accurate ways to projecting how a conference race or division race will play out prior to the season. Last week I started to ponder on whether or not my Preseason All-Conference teams could be a reasonable method to determine the conference forecast prior to the season.
Last year I looked at my preseason All-Conference teams and found that for many of the conferences, this could be an accurate way in determining a projected conference forecasts.
First let me explain the formula I used to come up with my total points number to analyze the schools. For every 1st Tm player that were listed on my All-Conference team, that school received 7 points, for every 2nd Tm player they received 6 points, for every 3rd Tm player they received 5 points and finally for every 4th Tm player on my All-Conference team that school received 4 points.
When looking back at the results of last season there were several conferences where this formula came to fruition and accurately projected the conference accordingly.
First, the Sun Belt conference ended up being a nightmare for my magazine forecast last year as two of my #8 projected teams (WKU and Louisiana) finished #2 and #3 in the conference while my projected #4 team Arkansas St ending up taking home the conference title. When looking back on my all-conference team, I found it interesting that Arkansas St ended up with the most points in the entire conference as they had 16 overall players make my all-conference team including nine among the first two teams.
In the SEC East Georgia was my pick to win the division and my All-Conference team agreed as they had the most points and would go on to win the division.
In the Pac-12 my All-Conference teams said that USC and Oregon had the most talent (USC actually had more pts than Oregon) and while USC could not go to a Pac-12 title game they easily finished with the best record in the Pac-12 South while Oregon won the overall conference title.
In the Big 10, I had both Wisconsin and Michigan St tied for their division leads but had Ohio St (remember prior to Tressel being let go) and Nebraska playing in the Big Ten Championship game. My All-Conference selections ended up being right as Wisconsin and Michigan St won their divisions.
Another conference that was predicted exactly right by my Preseason All-Conference team was the MAC which predicted that Ohio and Northern Illinois would meet up in the MAC Title game which indeed happened with Northern Illinois taking home the title.
Keep in mind I will adjust numbers for players that missed most of the season at the end of the year but here are the projected conference orders according to my all-conference team.
SEC Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
| SEC West | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | LSU | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 96 |
| 2 | Alabama | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 74 |
| 3 | Arkansas | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 69 |
| 4 | Auburn | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 45 |
| 4 | Texas A&M | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 45 |
| 5 | Miss St | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 27 |
| 6 | Mississippi | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| SEC East | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | Georgia | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 62 |
| 2 | Florida | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 57 |
| 3 | South Carolina | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 40 |
| 4 | Tennessee | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 | Missouri | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 30 |
| 6 | Kentucky | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Vanderbilt | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
This projected finish is nearly exact to what you will find in my magazine. LSU, Alabama and Arkansas are exactly what I had in the magazine while Auburn and A&M are higher than Mississippi St. In the East, Georgia is at the top (for now with future suspensions/transfers this could change) with my pick to win the East Florida #2.
Big Ten Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
| Big 10 Leaders | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | Ohio St | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 82 |
| 2 | Wisconsin | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 64 |
| 3 | Purdue | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 55 |
| 4 | Penn St | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 49 |
| 5 | Illinois | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 38 |
| 6 | Indiana | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| Big 10 Legends | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | Michigan St | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 91 |
| 2 | Nebraska | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 69 |
| 3 | Michigan | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 68 |
| 4 | Iowa | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Northwestern | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 33 |
| 6 | Minnesota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
In the Big Ten, my magazine forecasted Ohio St and Wisconsin to tie at the top of the Leaders division and they are the top two here but the Buckeyes do have the advantage. A little surprising was that Purdue and Penn St were both ranked higher than Illinois. In the Legends, Michigan St came away with first clearly ahead of Nebraska and Michigan as all three were picked to tie in the conference in my magazine.
Big 12 Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
Big 12 |
1st Tm |
2nd Tm |
3rd Tm |
4th Tm |
# Players |
Total Pts |
|
| 1 | Oklahoma | 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 117 |
| 2 | Texas | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 88 |
| 3 | Oklahoma St | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 80 |
| 4 | West Virginia | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 75 |
| 5 | Kansas St | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 72 |
| 6 | Baylor | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 48 |
| 7 | TCU | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 45 |
| 8 | Iowa St | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 37 |
| 9 | Texas Tech | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 27 |
| 9 | Kansas | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 27 |
Not much of a surprise here as #1-4 according to my All-Conference team was the exact same order as my magazine. Kansas St though here was projected higher than what I had them while TCU/Texas Tech are lower.
ACC Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
| ACC Atlantic | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | Florida St | 5 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 114 |
| 2 | Clemson | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 78 |
| 3 | Boston College | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 41 |
| 4 | NC State | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 39 |
| 4 | Maryland | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 39 |
| 6 | Wake Forest | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 23 | |
| ACC Coastal | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | North Carolina | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 66 |
| 2 | Virginia Tech | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 60 |
| 3 | Miami, Fl | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 54 |
| 4 | Georgia Tech | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 52 |
| 5 | Virginia | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 39 |
| 6 | Duke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
There is a reason why Florida St is my pick to win the national title as looking at their All-Conference caliber players they are dominant here with 114 points. Clemson is clearly the 2nd most talented team in the league while the ACC Coastal’s top two teams are exactly where I had them. Miami, Fl could be dropping in this list once I tally it up after the season as their All-American S Ray Ray Armstrong has been kicked off the team.
Pac-12 Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
| Pac 12 South | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | USC | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 95 |
| 2 | UCLA | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 59 |
| 3 | Utah | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 58 |
| 4 | Arizona | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 39 |
| 5 | Arizona St | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 37 |
| 6 | Colorado | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 27 |
| Pac 12 North | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | Oregon | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 77 |
| 2 | Stanford | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 72 |
| 3 | Washington | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 47 |
| 4 | California | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 41 |
| 5 | Washington St | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 35 |
| 6 | Oregon St | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 29 |
Like the other conferences to date, this pretty much played out the same with my personal conference projections. USC is the clear favorite in the South while the North favorites Oregon and Stanford are clear #1-2 over the other teams. Washington though is higher in these projected standings while Oregon St is much lower.
Big East Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
| Big East | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | USF | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 109 |
| 2 | Rutgers | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 102 |
| 3 | Connecticut | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 85 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | 5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 85 |
| 5 | Cincinnati | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 72 |
| 5 | Louisville | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 72 |
| 7 | Syracuse | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 58 |
| 8 | Temple | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 33 |
The Big East may have had the single biggest surprise. USF was my pick to win the conference and they did show up here #1 according to my All-conference team. The surprise came with Louisville who will be the media’s favorite to win the conference coming in a tie for 5th which is much lower than my projection while Connecticut is much higher.
MW Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
| Mount West | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | Boise St | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 77 |
| 1 | Nevada | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 77 |
| 3 | Fresno St | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 76 |
| 4 | Colorado St | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 73 |
| 5 | Hawaii | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 65 |
| 6 | Wyoming | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 64 |
| 7 | San Diego St | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 63 |
| 8 | UNLV | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 43 |
| 9 | Air Force | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 42 |
| 10 | New Mexico | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 36 |
Boise St is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country but still finish tied at the top of the MW with Nevada and only a point ahead of Fresno St. Colorado St/Hawaii were higher than my personal projections while Air Force who is one of the least experienced teams in the NCAA is much lower.
CUSA Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
| CUSA East | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | UCF | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 85 |
| 2 | Southern Miss | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 79 |
| 3 | East Carolina | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 47 |
| 4 | Marshall | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
| 5 | UAB | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 26 |
| 6 | Memphis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| CUSA West | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | Tulsa | 4 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 97 |
| 2 | Houston | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 76 |
| 3 | SMU | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 54 |
| 4 | Rice | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 40 |
| 5 | Tulane | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 39 |
| 6 | UTEP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 25 |
No surprise in the East as the order is exactly the same as the magazine. Tulsa actually is ahead of Houston here (remember HOU has the easier sked) while UTEP is much lower than what I projected them.
MAC Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
| MAC EAST | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | Ohio | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 80 |
| 2 | Bowling Green | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 71 |
| 3 | Miami, Oh | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 60 |
| 4 | Kent St | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 57 |
| 5 | Buffalo | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 36 |
| 6 | Umass | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Akron | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| MAC WEST | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | Northern Illinois | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 65 |
| 2 | Eastern Michigan | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | Ball St | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 47 |
| 4 | Western Michigan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 45 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 40 |
| 6 | Toledo | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 39 |
This conference may have had the most surprises. Ohio, BG and Miami in the East was predictable but in the West although only a combined 10 points separated teams #2-6, I was very surprised that Eastern Michigan was #2 with Western Michigan #4 and Toledo at #6.
WAC Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
| WAC | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | Louisiana Tech | 9 | 8 | 4 | 21 | 131 |
| 2 | San Jose St | 9 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 84 |
| 2 | Idaho | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 84 |
| 2 | Utah St | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 84 |
| 5 | New Mexico St | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 54 |
| 6 | Texas St | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 41 |
| 7 | UTSA | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
No surprise here as Louisiana Tech was the clear runaway winner with Texas St and UTSA clearly at the bottom.
Sun Belt Projected Standings
According To My All-Conference Team
| Sun Belt | 1st Tm | 2nd Tm | 3rd Tm | 4th Tm | # Players | Total Pts | |
| 1 | FIU | 7 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 103 |
| 2 | Louisiana | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 93 |
| 3 | WKU | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 83 |
| 4 | Arkansas St | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 67 |
| 5 | Troy | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 66 |
| 6 | North Texas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 49 |
| 7 | Middle Tennessee | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | ULM | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 45 |
| 9 | FAU | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 36 |
| 10 | South Alabama | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 29 |
FIU was my pick in my magazine to win the SBC and they come up #1 also here. The Surprise for me may have been Troy who I picked #2 in the mag actually coming in at #5 here.