Daily Blog •July 27, 2012

If you are a follower of my magazine, I am sure you are familiar with the fact that I have NINE different sets of power ratings that I create each preseason to give me 9 different ways of analyzing a team. One is based on the individual talent level and performance of each position on each team and those are added up for the rating. Another is based on my Power Plays numbers, which include rushing and passing offenses, defenses and special teams. Another is a continually updated power rating based on the score of the games and the strength of opponent. Finally a few years back, before computers became part of the BCS rankings system, there was without a doubt some flaws in the polls. Teams rated #2 or #3 in the country really were not that talented and were maybe the 5th or 6th best. One internet site decided to produce a poll of some of the top analysts and experts each week and invited me to join. I myself work 365 days a year. During magazine time (March, April, May) and throughout the football season (August through January) there are many 15-18 hour days put in and all of them are spent solely working on FOOTBALL. When they invited me to join the poll, I wanted to give them the best set of power ratings in the country to help make the poll as accurate as possible. The dilemma I had was which set?

What I decided to do was combine all eight into one rating which gives me a very solid overall ranking for each team. The rating takes into account EVERY factor, using it as my main set of power ratings which thus created my 9th set. You can learn more about this main set of power ratings on page 331 of this year’s magazine. I also go into complete details on my plus/minus power ratings on page 337.

Speaking of power ratings, Jeff Sagarin has been providing ratings for USA TODAY since 1985 and his college football ratings have been a part of the BCS formula since its inception in 1998.

For the past several years I have projected the preseason AP Top 10 nearly six months in advance and I have correctly projected at least nine of the Top 10 teams each year. It is one of my more popular blogs in the off-season and this year with its overwhelming popularity I decided to expand it for the first time to 24 teams!

Since I have found the Sagarin ratings fascinating over the past 25 years and have compared them to my nine different sets of computer ratings, I thought I would expand my preseason projections this year to include the popular Sagarin ratings. His power ratings for the upcoming season should be released in coming days/weeks so it took me awhile to figure out a formula that Sagarin uses to come up with his ratings but I think I have it down after several trial and errors and feel confident that I am within a ½ point of most of the teams.

 

Projected 2012 Jeff Sagarin Ratings

Rank Team Rating Rank Team Rating
1 Alabama 99.36 61 UCLA 71.17
2 LSU 92.55 62 Temple 70.86
3 Oregon 90.89 63 Northern Illinois 70.77
4 Oklahoma 90.62 64 Iowa St 70.59
5 Boise St 89.44 65 Wake Forest 70.16
6 Oklahoma St 89.06 66 Kentucky 70.01
7 TCU 88.74 67 Vanderbilt 69.74
8 Stanford 87.25 68 Virginia 69.63
9 Florida 86.57 69 Louisville 69.62
10 USC 86.56 70 Louisiana Tech 69.52
11 Arkansas 85.87 71 UCF 68.85
12 Texas 85.58 72 Purdue 68.46
13 Wisconsin 84.29 73 SMU 68.41
14 Virginia Tech 83.30 74 East Carolina 68.23
15 Ohio St 82.97 75 Maryland 67.99
16 South Carolina 82.93 76 San Diego St 67.66
17 Missouri 82.44 77 Syracuse 67.47
18 Florida St 82.21 78 Kansas 67.33
19 Nebraska 81.84 79 Minnesota 66.75
20 Georgia 81.54 80 Toledo 66.38
21 Auburn 81.33 81 Ohio 65.74
22 Penn St 81.03 82 Fresno St 65.71
23 Utah 80.87 83 Hawaii 65.62
24 Michigan St 80.80 84 Colorado 65.59
25 West Virginia 80.35 85 Marshall 65.45
26 Iowa 79.99 86 Western Michigan 64.84
27 Texas A&M 79.14 87 Duke 64.79
28 Notre Dame 78.82 88 Utah St 64.12
29 Cincinnati 78.60 89 Wyoming 64.10
30 BYU 78.54 90 Arkansas St 64.09
31 California 78.20 91 Rice 63.08
32 Clemson 78.12 92 Washington St 62.83
33 Texas Tech 77.59 93 UTEP 62.54
34 Houston 77.49 94 Troy 62.12
35 Mississippi St 77.25 95 Central Michigan 61.94
36 Baylor 77.19 96 Bowling Green 61.80
37 Miami, Fl 76.93 97 FIU 61.71
38 Kansas St 76.77 98 Louisiana 61.48
39 Michigan 76.28 99 Army 60.69
40 Pittsburgh 76.23 100 Ball St 60.14
41 North Carolina 76.18 101 Miami-Ohio 59.66
42 Arizona 75.80 102 Colorado St 59.47
43 Georgia Tech 75.18 103 San Jose St 59.25
44 Arizona St 75.13 104 Indiana 59.22
45 Rutgers 74.89 105 Kent St 59.04
46 Oregon St 74.84 106 Idaho 58.40
47 Tulsa 74.81 107 ULM 58.38
48 Southern Miss 74.54 108 Buffalo 58.02
49 Tennessee 74.18 109 UNLV 57.98
50 South Florida 74.12 110 UAB 57.45
51 NC State 74.01 111 Middle Tennessee 56.63
52 Air Force 73.49 112 North Texas 54.77
53 Nevada 73.46 113 Western Kentucky 54.55
54 Connecticut 73.07 114 New Mexico St 54.27
55 Washington 72.85 115 Eastern Michigan 53.49
56 Navy 72.37 116 New Mexico 52.80
57 Illinois 72.00 117 Florida Atlantic 52.35
58 Northwestern 71.64 118 Memphis 52.00
59 Boston College 71.35 119 Tulane 51.89
60 Mississippi 71.31 120 Akron 48.47

I am sure you are wondering why I am so fascinated and dependent on power ratings when analyzing a team in the preseason and during the season. I am in my early 50’s and I started following college football with great intensity at about 10 years old. At that time (being a numbers guy) I devised my own set of power ratings, which was based mostly on where the preseason magazines I was reading ranked the teams. I even awarded points at that time for how many pictured players each team had in the magazines. I updated those ratings during the season based on the final scores of the games.

A few years later after compiling my ratings (and no longer counting pictures), I stumbled upon the GamePlan magazine. In the front of the magazine was a set of power ratings for each team!! I now had two sets of power ratings on each team and I updated them both during the year giving me two different ways of looking at the strength of a team and I was well on my way to nine different sets.

Only 34 Days Until the First College Football Game!