The Cardinals are off LW’s 24-3 MNF loss to SF. GB has a slight statistical edge with the #21 and #13 units (+3 TO’s) at home in cold weather vs the domed #31 and #6 units (+4 TO’s). However, their real edge is their #1 pass rush vs an OL that has given up 35 sacks TY with 4 straight games of 5 or more prior to SF. GB got off to a slow start last week vs JAX but in the 2H held them to 5 FD’s and 108 yards. Rodgers has thrown for 284 ypg (70%) with an 18-2 ratio the L5W and while ARZ’s #4 pass defense (6.4 ypa, 6-8 ratio) has been solid this year, the only elite passer they’ve faced so far has been Brady who, on an “off day”, logged 297 yds (61%) with a 1-1 ratio. While GB is injury depleted, they are still chasing CHI/MIN in the division and roll at home.

Both teams are off of upset wins vs div foes with the Dolphins being 0-9 after the Jets. They now travel for the 2nd straight week with an uncertain QB situation as Tannehill (quad) left last week’s game. MIA got 14 pts off a blk'd punt and a fumble to take control of the game but was outgained 256-90 in the 2H. MIA is trying to be a run oriented team around RB Bush but he’s only rushed for 61 ypg (3.8) on the road this year and minus the ARZ game the Dolphins only have a single 100 yd receiving effort by a player (Hartline 111, 12.3 vs OAK). IND outgained TEN 286-166 after the 1H and Luck has led the Colts to a 3-1 mark at home with a respectable 271 ypg (55%) and a 6-2 ratio. IND has won the yardage battle in 4 of the last 5 games and their defense gets the speed advantage at home. I’ll take the healthier QB at home.

The Ravens had an extra week to stew after getting hammered by HOU prior to the bye. However, BAL has been contending with the Hurricane Sandy situation prior to traveling. BAL relies on a no huddle offense to set the pace in the game and while it works well at home (+33 ypg) it struggles on the road due to crowd noise (-148 ypg). The Ravens are also prone to playing down to the level of their competition as shown by barely getting past KC. BAL had a 438-357 yd edge vs CLE in the 1st meeting holding the Browns to 43 yds rushing (2.5) winning 23-16. CLE did move from its 10 down to the BAL33 with a chance to tie at the end but Weeden overthrew his receiver. CLE gave a solid defensive effort last week holding SD to 6 punts and 2 SOD on 11 drives. CLE also expects to have both starting DT’s Rubin (ankle) and Taylor (pectoral) for depth for the #24 rush defense. With the Ravens beat up and distracted I’ll call for the home team to sneak away with a win.

Two completely different mindsets coming out of their byes as Buffalo has been outgained in 4 straight losing 3 of them while Houston rebounded from its only loss and has the AFC’s best record. Not every QB gets the “privilege” of facing a top 5 D on the road and after Fitzpatrick threw for only 126 yds and led BUF to 204 yds and 10 FD’s at SF he faces another this week (#3). The Bills D has played respectable against similar foes but against NE and SF they’ve allowed 1201 yds, 96 pts and 62 FD’s. Some teams struggle to stay focused against bottom ranked teams, but remember, last year the trio of Schaub, Foster and Johnson were not together in one game in the 2H of the season so I expect many “fun” one-sided contests for this still excitable team.

No one has played a better set of defenses than the Lions as into last week they’ve already faced the league’s #1, #3, #6, #8, #10 and #12. Versus the one non-top 12 D they faced (TEN #30) they posted 583 yds and 36 FD’s!! Look for the Lions to prioritize getting out to a fast start as they trailed at HT in ALL 7 games this season. The Jaguars only have 3 main issues this season but they are unfortunately their off (#32), defense (#25) and their ST’s (#32). Jacksonville has had 7 td drives in the L/6 games but ONLY 2 have been over 5 plays long meaning if you can stop the home run you will shut them down as evidenced by getting held to 212 yds or less in 3 of the L5W. The Jags have also been very hospitable at home with a D allowing 67%, that only has 4 picks on the year and only has a 1.0 sack % at home. The trio of Stafford, Megatron and TE Pettigrew are salivating and Johnson is the ONLY receiver avg over 15 ypc (15.6) with at least 32 rec’s while Pettigrew is on pace again for another top 5 finish among TE’s. I’m going to back a hungry Lions squad who, despite being a disappointing 3-4, know they are playoff worthy and even out their record here.

The Bucs are traveling across the country but the trip is made easier being off a Thursday nighter while also coming the game after a confidence building road win which was their 1st away from home in 10 tries. Tampa Bay has been severely outgained in 2 road games. I’ll go on record calling the new “Muscle Hamster” led offense dynamic as Martin has avg’d 99 ypg (5.1) rushing and 57 ypg (21.4!) rec the L/3 as the Bucs have scored in 15 of their last 17Q’s. Oakland returns home off a 26-16 win at KC but don’t get overly excited by their 2 game win streak. The Chiefs’ offense was already struggling having scored just 12 ppg in their previous 3 and they lost their starting QB while JAX’s offense avg’d just 11 ppg in their 4 prior games. OAK is struggling to apply pressure (#30 in sks) which I credit to a less aggressive D as the Raiders have always been among the league leaders in penalties but with the new coaching staff their mantra is less penalties as they have posted the 8th lowest TY. The Bucs get back-to-back road wins for first time since 2009.

These 2 have appeared in 4 of the L/5 Superbowls with Eli winning 2 and Big Ben dropping two. The Steelers have already beaten Washington and Philly outgaining both by 99 ypg while the Giants were outgained vs both by 72 ypg. The teams are very much alike as both have top 11 offenses that can grind it out as they each are averaging over 21 FD’s per game. On the defensive side however Pittsburgh’s season-worst was when they allowed 359 yds and 21 FD’s while NY has allowed more than that in half of their games. The Giants have needed TO’s to assist their D and they’ve done that as they are tied with NE with +13 TO’s while the Steelers are a pedestrian +1. I’ll call for the Giants by a FG in what should be an emotional gm for the city coming off the devastation of Superstorm Sandy.

The Cowboys are in a brutal division sandwich having lost to the Giants last week with a trip to Philadelphia on deck. Dallas has, however, outgained opponents on the road by 74 ypg. While the Falcons are getting outgained by 76 ypg at home they win the games they are supposed to and are the NFL's last unbeaten team at 7-0. Dallas actually has won their last 3 gms vs teams that came in 7-0 or better and Tony Romo's 19-2 Nov record is the best all-time. However, the Cowboys have come up just short in recent weeks and until they break through I'm going with the proven Falcons here.