| Daily Blog • November 8th |
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Three years ago I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished my first year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%). In 2010 I had another successful year with a winning week every week and an overall 103-45-17 (70%) record. Last year I went 82-44-11 (65%). So far this year I am 86-28-6 75%.
This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 10. Keep in mind you will not find players like Denard Robinson, Matt Barkley or Montee Ball in my picks. These are strictly surprise picks of players who are flying under the radar.
My QB's Of The Week:
Ryan Nassib, Syracuse • Mike Glennon, NC State
• Austin Brown, UAB
QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse vs Louisville – Not only do the Orange get an undefeated Louisville squad at home this week, but it’s also senior day for one of Syracuse’s best QB’s in the history of the program. Ryan Nassib comes into this matchup just 252 passing yards from the all-time school record and considering he has already surpassed 252 yds on 6 occasions this season, it won’t be much of a stretch to call for him to accomplish that feat here (7-0 td to int ratio the past 3 games).
QB Mike Glennon, NC State vs Wake Forest – Mike Glennon earns our Bounce Back Player of the Week here after his struggles a week ago against Virginia. Favorable matchup here for NC State against the Demon Deacons and we expect Glennon to come close to his 387 ypg performance from the previous 2 weeks against Maryland and UNC.
QB Austin Brown, UAB vs Marshall – How well has Austin Brown thrown the ball in the past 4 games? How about averaging 315 ypg over that span. Up next for Brown is a Marshall defense that is allowing 519 ypg on the road thus far in 2012. Expect Brown to surpass the 300 yd passing mark for the 4th time in the last 5 games here.
My RB's Of The Week:
Braden Oliver, Buffalo • DJ Harper, Boise St
• Latavius Murray, UCF
RB Branden Oliver, Buffalo vs Western Michigan – After being bitten by the injury bug for the first half of the season, Branden Oliver appears to be back to his normal self over the past 2 games. Take a look at his 2012 numbers and you will see that in the 4 games that he has fully participated in, Oliver has surpassed the 100 yard rushing plateau each game averaging 162 ypg in those contests. WMU has had its share of issues against the run giving up 163 ypg over their previous 4 games and we expect Oliver to reach the 100 yard milestone yet again here.
RB DJ Harper, Boise St vs Hawaii – How poor has Hawaii’s defense played against the run at home in 2012? How about being gashed for 244 ypg so far this season!! Throw in a matchup against DJ Harper and we could see another big running game here as Harper has surpassed the 100 yard mark in 4 contests this year while also recording 12 td’s.
RB Latavius Murray, UCF vs UTEP – UCF is one of our most improved teams in the nation for good reason as they are 7-2 and in the driver’s seat for a conference title. A pleasant surprise over the past 3 games has been the play of Latavius Murray, who has rushed for 503 yds in that span while adding 9 total td’s. UTEP is on the docket this week and how have they done against the run this year? How about allowing more than 200 yards in 5 contests so far!! Murray and UCF are salivating for this weekend’s matchup.
My WR's Of The Week:
Davante Adams, Fresno St • Eric Ward, Texas Tech
• Chip Reeves, Troy
WR Davante Adams, Fresno St vs Nevada – Davante Adams is a shoe-in for 1st Team All-MW WR honors and deservedly so as he is averaging 91 ypg receiving on the season while pulling in at least one td in each of the last 5 contests. Nevada is giving up 464 ypg so far this year at home so you can be assured that Adams will get plenty of opportunities here.
WR Eric Ward, Texas Tech vs Kansas – In a balanced TT passing offense Eric Ward is your leader after 9 games with 643 yds (100+ in L/2 games). Even more impressive is his ability to get into the endzone as he has reached pay dirt 10 times already. A matchup against Kansas is on deck this weekend and we expect Ward’s fine season to continue here.
WR Chip Reeves, Troy vs Navy – Chip Reeves has been a consistent, yet underrated WR throughout his career with the Trojans but after a 144 yd showing last week against Tennessee, we really like him here against a Navy defense that practices solely against the option during practice all season.My Defenses Of The Week:
Boise St • UCLA • Texas Tech
Boise St Defense vs Hawaii – Without question one of our top defenses to choose from this weekend as the Broncos have allowed just 251 ypg over the L/3 contests while the Warrior offense has averaged just 15 ppg in their 7 losses to FBS opponents this year. Our power ratings call for Hawaii to total just 291 yds and struggle again here against Boise St.
UCLA Defense vs Washington St – How dominant was the UCLA defense last week against Arizona? How about holding the Wildcats to 298 total yds under their season average in a 66-10 victory! The Bruins now go on to face a Cougar squad that has struggled under 1st year HC Mike Leach’s Air-Raid offense (12 ppg L/4) and just lost their biggest offensive weapon to suspension this week.
Texas Tech Defense vs Kansas – The Texas Tech defense has had a bit of a wake up call their past 3 games against TCU, K-St and Texas allowing 456 ypg and 46 ppg but a meeting with Kansas is just what the doctor ordered. We expect the Raiders to come close to what they allowed over their first 6 contest of the season (243 ypg) rather than the latter.
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Sneaky Plays for Week 11
CollegeFootballGeek.com’s Sneaky Plays – Week 11
By Kevin Mount, CollegeFootballGeek.com
The regular season is over in many college fantasy leagues and Week 11 marks the beginning of the playoffs. For those of you competing in your leagues playoffs, here is a look at some guys who might fill in nicely for owners in need of a potential diamond in the rough.
QUARTERBACKS
Keenan Reynolds, Navy QB vs. Troy: Reynolds tore up Florida Atlantic last week to the tune of 306 total yards and three total scores. He now has racked up 13 total touchdowns in the last four games and has the Navy offense running on all cylinders. This freshman could do some real damage this week against a Troy defense that is ranked 90th in the country in total defense. Expect a few scores and a nice yardage total from this Midshipman in Week 11.
Clint Chelf, Oklahoma State QB vs. West Virginia: Chelf came on in relief last week when starting QB Wes Lunt went out with a concussion. He responded with 266 total yards and a score against a tough Kansas State defense. This junior could go ballistic this week against West Virginia if Lunt is unable to go. The Mountaineers pass defense is the worst in all of college football, allowing an average of 350 passing yards per game. Monitor the health of Wes Lunt and be sure to plug Chelf into the lineup should Lunt be unable to answer the bell.
Devin Gardner, Michigan QB vs. Northwestern: Gardner was thrust into action last week against Minnesota when Denard Robinson was unable to go. He looked very good considering he had been playing WR all season and showed why he was such a highly recruited QB. He could put up silly stats this week against a Northwestern defense that is ranked 107th against the pass in 2012. Gardner could be a terrific option if he is under center this week. Check the injury status of Denard Robinson and plug in Gardner if Robinson is a scratch in Week 11.
Cody Wells, La Monroe QB vs. Arkansas State: Wells was called into action when starting QB Kolton Browning was lost to a foot injury against La Lafayette. Wells put up decent numbers in relief and could be very effective this week against Arkansas State in a Sun Belt showdown. Fantasy owners could do much worse than Wells this weekend.
RUNNING BACKS
Adam Muema, San Diego State RB vs. Air Force: Muema has scored a rushing touchdown in all but two games this season and is coming off of back to back 100 plus yard efforts. He could put up huge numbers this week against an Air Force run defense that is ranked 114th in the nation and has allowed 24 rushing touchdowns this season. This sophomore will likely see a heavy dose of carries in Week 11 and could light up Air Force in a big way.
John White, Utah RB vs. Washington: White has been a huge fantasy disappointment in 2012, but is starting to show signs of life with back to back games of over 100 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns. He could tear up a Washington run defense that comes in ranked 92nd in the country. Look for White go over the 100-yard mark for the third straight game in Week 11 and provide fantasy owners with the boost they have been waiting all for out of this Ute.
Kevin Parks, Virginia RB vs. Miami: Parks is coming off a 115-yard effort against NC State and has topped the 100-yard mark in two of the last three games. He does share carries with Perry Jones, but is getting the ball enough to produce good fantasy stats. He could be in line for a big effort this week against a horrific Miami run defense that is ranked 119th in the country. Look for Parks to pound on the Hurricanes and cross the century mark with ease this week. A score or two out of Parks are quite possible as well.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia WR vs. Auburn: Mitchell had a solid freshman campaign last year as a WR, but was moved to CB this fall to help out the Georgia secondary. He has been used as a wide out over the past four games and has responded with 284 yards and two scores over that time frame. This talented sophomore could find plenty of open space this week against a terrible Auburn defense. The Tigers will likely have no answer for the Georgia passing attack and Mitchell could fare very well. Look for Mitchell to find the end zone in Week 11.
Xavier Rush, Tulane WR vs. Memphis: Rush has piled up 222 yards receiving and three scores over the past two weeks. He has become a big part of the Tulane passing game, which has been clicking lately and could have a big game this week against Memphis. The Tigers secondary is allowing over 260 yards per game and will likely have trouble slowing down the Green Wave this week. Don’t be surprised to see Rush go over 100 yards receiving and add at least one score in Week 11.
Josh Stewart, Oklahoma State WR vs. West Virginia: Stewart has put up consistent receptions and yardage total this season, while only scoring three times. His scoring troubles could be solved this week with West Virginia coming to Stillwater. The Mountaineers are absolutely horrific against the pass and will likely have no answer for the high-powered passing game of Oklahoma State. Start Stewart and don’t look back!
SNEAKY DEFENSES:
Rutgers vs. Army
Texas Tech vs. Kansas
Western Kentucky vs. Florida Atlantic
Arizona vs. Colorado
San Jose State vs. New Mexico State
Clemson vs. Maryland
Georgia vs. Auburn
Boise State vs. Hawaii
UCF vs. UTEP
Notre Dame vs. Boston College
BYU vs. Idaho
UCLA vs. Washington State
There you have it everyone, enjoy this week’s action and always remember to have fun playing college fantasy football. Good luck this week!
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