When you’re 3-5 you may think you can compete with most teams. CIN, however, has played the #29 schedule but the wins have come via teams with a combined 6-21 record. The Giants, meanwhile, are at 6-3 and off a loss vs PIT so they’ll be hungry and out to prove a point. Already this season the Giants have knocked off DAL, SF and CAR. The Bengals need to run the ball to keep pressure off Dalton and with them avg only 3.9 ypc their expectations for Green-Ellis (62 ypg, 3.5) to shoulder the load has fallen way short. CIN did play hard last week vs DEN but blew a 4Q lead giving them 4 straight losses. Different mind sets here as the Bengals have struggled down the stretch each of the L3Y going 7-19 while a hard nosed, old school disciplinarian is the perfect HC to ensure there’s no letdown prior to a bye.

The Chargers saved Turner’s job with a 31-13 win over KC last week. The cross county trip this week is negated by being off a Thursday Nighter but they need to stay focused as they are one game behind DEN which is where they travel next week. The Chargers snapped a 3 game losing streak last week but what was just as important was that Rivers found his groove going 18-20 a week after his poor performance in the wind and rain (18-34 at CLE). The young Bucs squad has exceeded expectations under the “iron fist” of Greg Schiano and while a 4-4 record and B2B road upsets leads to excitement it also can make the players and fans over value them. Tampa’s offensive success comes when they can run the ball as they topped 100+ yds in their 4 wins and were kept under the century mark in their losses with SD’s #4 rush D allowing only 3.7 ypc. The Chargers won’t look past them and will start their normal second half season awakening.

Despite this being the Broncos 2nd straight EST game this is an “A Game” for them. John Fox takes on his former team which made him suffer thru a 2-14 lame duck season in 2010 where ownership purged talent across the board. Both teams have played top 7 schedules this year so when you see that CAR is +2 ypg you wouldn’t expect a 2-6 record. You can call it a soph slump or not but Newton is throwing for only 57% with a 5-8 ratio compared to 60% with a 21-17 ratio last year while also fumbling 4 times this year compared to 3 in all of last year. That along with a rush attack that’s avg 111 ypg (4.3 ypc) the L4W is the reason their previous 4 losses were by a combined 12 pts. While there’s no question the Broncos #3 offense has benefited from this year’s comeback player of the year, Manning (300 ypg, 69%, 20-6) the D also has shown marked improvement (#20 last year vs #10 this year) with the offense #4 in the league extending drives (47% 3rd down conv #4). With a CAR secondary allowing 70% completions at home and an offense that is avg 30.5 ppg the L6W I’ll take the visitor whose only losses this season were against 3 div leaders with a combined 19-4 record.

The Dolphins had their 3 game win streak snapped at Indy last week. Miami was actually outgained by 139 ypg during that streak and after allowing St Louis to gain a season high they allowed 516 yds to Indy which is not only a season high but goes well back into the Manning years (week #13 of 2004)!! Now they return to South Beach as the hunted. The Dolphins D is getting exposed as into last week they were ranked #22 on defense but #5 in scoring D as teams now have a solid grasp on their redzone D. Playing on the road takes a solid rush attack (CJ 133 ypg & 6.3 when 16+ att’s) with a veteran QB (Hasselback 64% this year) and while you may say they’re 1-3 on the road this year, they did take on 3 Top 11 D’s (SD, HOU and MIN) before pulling an upset vs Buffalo. The Dolphins Tannehill is having a solid rookie season but one alarming note is that in their 3 close losses they’ve produced a total of 3 pts in those three 4Q’s and 2 OT’s. One team with nothing to lose versus the other off a disappointing loss.

The Falcons have this game circled as they have lost 7 of the last 8 vs NO. Both teams are off prime time games and while both teams have faced bottom 5 schedules, ATL is +12 ypg (#10) while NO is -87 ypg (#30) with the Falcons being +10 in TO’s. Matt Ryan who has avg’d 275 ypg (60%) with a 6-1 ratio in his last 4 vs NO gets to take on the #31 pass def allowing 306 ypg (67%) with a 15-3 ratio vs 11 sacks. ATL by comparison was only allowing 217 ypg (67%) with a 7-10 ratio prior to DAL and they have pulled in 3 sacks in 6 of 7 games this year. NO is without RB Sproles (broken hand) again and there is now tape on how they adjusted the offense without him. It is noteworthy that ATL has only played 1 team with a winning record (DEN) but this is an excellent time for payback.

A pair of desperate NFC East teams who both went into their prime time games last week at 3-4 and the Giants loss keeps the winner in striking distance. While Philly is off a Monday Night trip to NO, Dallas is in a situation disadvantage being on the road for the 4th time in 5 weeks off a trip to Atlanta. The Cowboys look for revenge after getting swept last year as they were outscored by a combined 54-14 and outgained by 376 yds. This season both teams are TO plagued with DAL at -11 and Philly at -9 but the Cowboys have outgained their foes by 91 ypg while Philly has been outgained by 104 ypg the L3W. Vick is now playing under extreme pressure with fans calling for Foles to get a chance and after tossing 6 int’s the first 2 games he has a 6-2 ratio since but has lost 5 fumbles and continues to not make the clutch throw. If there was a way both teams could find a way to lose, they would and I will call for the next closest thing....a tie.

With both teams off byes I clearly favor a winning, experienced team that is not happy with a 6-2 record versus a team that’s not used to winning and was 3-2 earlier this season but has now lost 3 straight. SF was held to under 100 yds rushing in both losses to Minnesota and the NY Giants which are teams with strong DL’s that can get sacks without blitzing. While St Louis’ D ranks #12 in sacks, 9 came against the sieve like Cardinals OL who has allowed 33 sks in their last 5 games. On the flip side the Rams have taken on 2 top 10 D’s on the road and have totaled a combined 411 yds!! SF has also been protective at home vs division foes especially on the defensive side of the ball allowing 214 ypg. The league leading rush attack (5.6 ypc) will feast on a Rams D that has allowed 169 ypg and 5.6 ypc to the top 3 rush teams they’ve faced.

The best record in the AFC travels to face the second best record in the NFC. CHI has benefitted from playing the #30 schedule this year but you can call them a pretender as they’ve outgained those teams by only 6 ypg losing the yardage battle to 4 of them (+312 yds vs JAX). HOU’s combo of top 10 units (#10 off, #10 def, 5th best TO margin) has outgained the #18 schedule by 86 ypg losing the yardage battle only twice. Last week in scoring 51 pts on the road the Bears became the first NFL team to ever score td’s on a run, pass, int ret and a blocked kick ALL in 1Q! That final has been like many misleading CHI finals this year as Cutler is comp only 58%, has been sacked 14 times in the last 3 games and has thrown 8 int’s in 8 games after only having 7 last year. Their offense will also have to adjust to the one man wrecking crew known as JJ Watt (#1 w/10.5 sks) who demands double teaming. The Texans meanwhile slept through their 1H after their bye but in the 2H held BUF to 3 pts, 6 FD’s and 119 yards. That won’t happen here as the fired up Texans win in the Windy City.