The Packers #24 run game should get a boost as FB Kuhn and RB Starks are slated to return. Domes don’t intimidate Rodgers as GB has avg’d 396 ypg & 31 ppg in their L/6 as he’s tallied a 19-1 ratio the last 2 years. Both teams have respectable defensive rankings (GB #13, DET #10) but part of this is due to the fact that neither has faced many elite QB’s. Still DET has a given up a 14-5 ratio while GB has held foes to 13-10. GB has a huge situational edge off a late season bye while DET is off 4 road games in 5 weeks. The Packers lead the league in sacks and the Lions have struggled when pressured as in their 5 losses they’ve been sacked 13 times while only getting sacked 4 times in their 4 wins. Green Bay’s only loss here in the L6Y was in 2010 when the Lions knocked Rodgers out of the game in the 2Q which he still remembers well. GB has a QB who knows how to play and win big games and knows the importance of this one as they still trail the Bears in the standings.

The Falcons talked the entire off season how Drew Brees continued to throw on them up by 22 to set his passing record at home on a Monday night in week #16. After losing to the Saints again and being the final team knocked from the ranks of the unbeatens they look towards Arizona to take out their frustrations. The Cardinals do come in off a bye but I’m calling it a disadvantage for them because they dropped 5 straight prior . Skelton started the last 3 losses and his career #’s (54%, 15-21 ratio) are basically what you’re getting this season (55.8%, 2-5). The dome crowd will clearly be the loudest he’s played against and Atlanta’s secondary is only 1 of 4 teams to post a positive defensive ratio (8-10). The Cards OL is still on a record setting pace allowing 35 sacks the last 6 games and while the Falcons don’t blitz often they have still recorded 3 sacks in 6 different games. The Falcons have won 17 of their last 20 and get back to their winning ways here.

Schiano got his 1st win as an NFL coach with a 16-10 win on opening day vs CAR. Now the Bucs travel for the 3rd time in 4 weeks and while many early season opponents may have taken them lightly they are now traveling to face an opppnent looking for same season revenge (0-2 last year). The Bucs’ improved offense has propelled them to #14 but on the season they have faced the league’s #31 schedule and despite facing the 2nd easiest slate they’re getting outgained on the year. Last week was another example as they were outgained 426-279 and only had 12 FD’s scoring on a blocked punt and an interception return. Carolina meanwhile has taken on the #1 schedule and the defense has brought its game as over the last 5 weeks they’ve allowed only 306 ypg which includes 3 offenses ranked in the top 7! Last year Newton showed marked improvement facing teams the second time around as his ratio went from 3-4 to 6-3 while being a much more productive runner going from 4.6 ypc to 7.0 ypc. Three straight wins gives Tampa extreme confidence but might they be looking ahead to hosting the Falcons next week?

After 4 road games in 5 weeks the Cowboys settle in for a 3 game home stretch. Dallas is off of the NYG, ATL and PHI while having WAS on Thanksgiving and PHI again on deck. The Cowboys and their 4-5 record have been an enigma as they have dominated on the stat sheet being the ONLY team with both units ranked in the top 6 and outgaining the NFL’s #2 schedule by 54 ypg. Their 20.5 off ypp, however, is 3rd lowest. Even though CLE is off a bye, they and STL are the only teams that haven’t won a road game this year. Despite not getting a win, the Browns have performed better on the road than at home only getting outgained by 37 ypg. The underachieving Cowboys win it by a td.

The Colts are on their second straight away but being off a Thursday Nighter negates the normal travel pressure. Luck has now led his team to back-to-back road wins but it was against a pair of teams that have 4 wins combined and into this week are ranked #29 & #26 on defense. Belichick came into this season with a 10-3 record vs rookie QB’s holding them to 54% and an 11-21 ratio and after losing a game to Russell Wilson earlier this season his creative juices will be flowing. Brady loves marquee QB matchups and since ‘10 when he’s facing an elite QB or high profile foe (Rivers, both Manning’s, Vick & Tebow) he’s had a 26-4 ratio. Luck deserves the praise he’s receiving leading the Colts to a 6-3 mark but in their 2 losses to Chicago (41-21) and the NY Jets (35-9) the main difference was that they trailed at halftime by 10 and 18 points meaning they were forced to throw playing from behind and they were also the 2 games they allowed over 28 points. Unfortunately for Indy, NE has topped the 4 td mark 13 of their last 15 games.

The Saints have won 4 of their last 5 and while the defense has allowed no less than 427 yds this year they are improving situationally. After being held to 58 ypg rushing (3.1) in 6 of their first 7 games, Vitt has made running the ball a priority the last 2 with NO earning 140 (5.6) and 148 (5.1). This has given the Saints the balance they lacked and opened up the playbook. NO is only earning 24 ypg/1.5 ppg less on the road vs last year’s unit and now takes on an OAK squad that tied a team record for most points allowed last year. While Palmer has been able to move the ball this year, he’s been mistake prone at critical moments and the offense has been sorely lacking without its top 2 RB’s being held to 22 (2.0) and 72 (3.0) yds rushing the last 2 weeks. OAK’s #24 pass defense is worse than its ranking giving up a 17-6 ratio with just 11 sacks (31st). They are getting no help from their special teams with a 5.5 avg on PR’s and a 23.8 avg on KR’s. NO is gaining momentum and balance and I’ll call for them by 14 in a higher scoring game.

Two seasons ago the Chargers finished with the league’s #1 offense and defense yet failed to earn a playoff berth with a 9-7 record. Last year they finished #6 & #16 and were only 8-8. HC Turner somehow kept his job and after playing 9 games SD stands at 4-5 despite playing the league’s weakest schedule. The Broncos meanwhile brought in John Fox and completely redid the offense to fit their prized free-agent leading to the #3 offense and to an improved #5 defense which has been on the field much less due to Manning. What’s more impressive is that the Broncos have produced these results against the league’s #7 schedule. Peyton may have needed a few games to get settled in (1-2 start) but since that time is on a All-Pro pace completing 79% of his passes with a 16-3 ratio his last 6 games. The only loss in that stretch was on the road vs some guy named Tom Brady. Manning will learn more from facing the SD defense for a second time in 5 games than visa versa and John Fox will not let any situation slip away from proving his team’s dominance in this division.

This fierce rivalry has been made even stronger with Pittsburgh knocking Baltimore out of the playoffs twice in the last 4 years. No series has been more closely contested as in their last 8 regular season meetings one game was decided by 4 points with SIX decided by exactly a FG including 3 in OT. However, the Steelers are without Big Ben here, meaning that backup Byron Leftwich gets the call. He has not won a start since ‘06 and expect to see PIT turn more to the run game in this one. On the defensive side of the ball, they are also without Palomalu and the Steelers have only forced 9 TO’s this year (only IND is behind them in that category). On the flip side BAL’s offense put up 48 points last week vs Oakland with Jones’ 105 KR td making it the final, 55-20. All that, and Rice didn’t even get over 40 yards rushing (35, 2.7). I like going against public perception and the perception is that the Steelers are in big trouble here, but I think playing at home helps and the rest of the starters will elevate their game and help out Leftwich as they get a surprising win.