The Browns showed me last week that they have fight in them but learning how to finish and win is a task not yet accomplished. Last week’s emotional loss will be tough for this young team to rebound from as they let a 13-0 halftime lead slip away but again took the lead with 1:07 left only to allow a 66/8pl drive and a 32 yd FG with :02 to force OT. The Steelers, however, are off quite a stretch being at the NYG, home vs KC on MNF, hosting BAL on SNF and having a trip to BAL on deck. New starter Leftwich only hit 18-39-199 in a 13-10 loss to Baltimore and was injured giving the start here to NFL vet Charlie Batch. CLE clearly considers PIT its main rival while the Steelers have battled BAL for the division the past several seasons. This will mean even more to CLE with new owner Haslam having been a PIT minority partner. Rookie Weeden needs the rush attack to throw but the Steelers have only allowed 99+ rush yards twice this year giving them the league’s #1 overall and #6 rush D. I’ll call for PIT by a FG.

Love the dynamics of a losing team off a nationally televised win vs a team with a winning record off a loss on the road to one of the AFC’s top teams. Prior to NE the Colts had not only won 4 straight but outgained those foes by 73 ypg while Buffalo has only totaled 281 yards in their 19-14 win vs MIA which is the same team that IND gained 516 yards against. Since everything Luck does is compared to Peyton let’s mention that he’s exceeded Manning’s numbers off a loss already going 3-0 including pulling 2 upsets. It’s never a positive sign when your defense is ranked #31 allowing 147 ypg (4.9) rushing on the road and 63% completions. It gets even tougher when your offense averages only 339 ypg away from home. Let’s sum it up in 6 words: better offense, better defense and hungry.

Both of these teams were 1-2 to start the season. There’s been a “slight” change in direction since with DEN going 6-1, +109 ypg/32 ppg and KC going winless, -41 ypg/12 ppg. Last week’s win over SD makes the Broncos 3 clear in the AFC West but as their attention turns towards playoff seedings they also know that they’ve already dropped head-to-head matchups with a pair of division leaders. The Chiefs D has been clearly overachieving allowing only 312 ypg at home vs SD, BAL & OAK but last week I saw it start to struggle being on the field for an overextended period of time as they allowed a season high 22 FD’s and a ssn high at home of 409 yds vs CIN’s #17 off. While I often look at QBR’s for a player, one stat that jumps out is that KC’s team QBR is dead last on offense and #31 on defense (18-6 ratio) which should make Manning’s (310 ypg, 69%, 21-4 ratio the last 8 weeks) Thanksgiving feast come a few days late. Denver takes this one by 2 td’s.

Jaguars have held RB Johnson to 44 yds rushing (3.6) in the last 3. Johnson has avg’d 130 ypg rush (6.7) the last 5 games prior to the bye though, and JAX’s #29 rush def has allowed over 123 yds rushing in 8 of 10 games this year. The Jaguars have been outgained by 191 ypg at home this year while being outscored 31-9. They have been held to 15 or less in 16 of their last 27 games with Gabbert only having 2 games this year with 2 td’s. The Jags talked about how their season opening loss to Minnesota in OT inflicted a 2 game hangover so how will they react to blowing a 14 point 4Q lead to Houston last week. TEN rebounded from the CHI debacle by thumping a better MIA defense in Locker’s return. While the Titans #30 defense has been vulnerable vs the pass this year (71%, 20-9 ratio) the Jaguars lack a big time weapon (Shorts is a slot WR, Blackmon rookie struggles despite last week) to exploit it and I’ll call for the road team to get the win here.

This is the first team TB gets to face with a winning record at home this year. Both teams are off of dramatic wins with ATL becoming the 1st team to win a game with an 0-5 ratio since Bart Starr in 1967 as they took advantage of a horrid QB situation by ARZ. Freeman (278 ypg, 16-3 ratio the last 6 weeks) and RB Martin (148 ypg, 6.1 the last 4 weeks) have become a formidable duo but those numbers were posted vs the #32 schedule and not a nine-win team. TB’s #32 pass defense is allowing 298 ypg passing and 70.6% at home now has to face the competitive Ryan who’s tossing for 70.1% with a 14-3 ratio on the road. Last week was also only the 3rd time in his career he’s tossed 3 or more int’s and the game following in the previous 2 times he completed 74% with a 4-1 ratio. Despite having a full 3 game lead over the Bucs they are well aware of the excitement building in Tampa and will go all out to ensure they squash that enthusiasm. Contender vs pretender!

As the calendar turned to October the Saints were 0-4 while SF was 3-1 and all was right in the Bay. Fast forward to mid-November and I’ll officially call it a turnaround as the Saints won 3 straight and 4 of 5 while the 49ers are 2-1-1 with the tie coming at home. The Saints have clearly utilized the Dome as a powerful edge and even in this season’s trying times as they knocked off SD and Philly in prime time and took care of the NFL’s final unbeaten. This week their sights are set on revenging “The Grab” as they were :09 away from the advancing to the NFC Championship when Alex Smith hit Vernon Davis with a 14 yd pass. SF is in a tough spot having hosted Chicago on Monday Night and playing on a short week with an early start. All 3 West Coast teams that have faced this situation this year have faltered in Arizona at GB (17-31), Oakland at Miami (13-35) and Seattle at St Louis (13-19). Last year Brees thew for 435 yds vs SF and that was with the coastal winds, on the road, outdoors and with playoff pressure so the game plan is already in place.

The Rams made the most of their situational edge in the first meeting catching ARZ off an OT game and beating them 17-3 on Thur Night to start the Cardinals 6 game slide. In ARZ’s last 3 games they have been outgained 352-261 with a total of 3 offensive td’s while allowing 26 ppg. WR Fitzgerald hasn’t had 100 yds rec since the PHI game in wk 3 (114, 12.7) as he’s avg’d 41 ypg (10.4) the the last 4 weeks. STL has its own issues at WR but they have a better QB in Bradford (224 ypg, 61%, 12-8) and a better RB situation with Jackson/Richardson combining for 1,004 yds rushing (4.5) so far. STL’s problem is that they have gone 5 straight without a takeaway (-8 TO’s) and 6 straight without an int (11-0 ratio). There is a chance that Kolb will return for ARZ but, keep in mind, this OL has already given up 44 sacks this year (#32, 1 every 8.7 pass att’s) and STL has the #4 pass rush and will be very hungry vs whichever QB takes the field here.

Last year the Giants went into Lambeau and knocked the Packers out of the playoffs 37-20. This week NY is off a bye having lost back-to-back games at Cincy and home vs Pittsburgh. The Packers meanwhile are off a 4Q come from behind division road win. Both tms desperately need a win to boost their playoff chances and stay in the division races. Will the Packers get revenge over LY's NFC Championship game or will the rested Giants get a much-needed bounce back win? I think this game goes down to the wire with the Giants coming away with a FG win!