Daily Blog • October 21st
HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS:
TENNESSEE AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 164
241
26
-6
#4
BUFFALO 144
253
28
-4
#2

Both teams pulled upsets last week. The Bills do have a bye on deck but they are off back-to-back West Coast games getting mauled vs SF and rebounding with an OT win last week at Arizona. TEN meanwhile has extra rest and a bit of momentum after upsetting PIT last Thursday but how that carries forward is uncertain as QB Locker is out. RB Johnson did break the 25 yd barrier for the 2nd time this year vs PIT (91 yds, 4.8) but TEN’s defense is allowing 136 ypg (4.4) on the ground with a 69% completion rate for a 17-5 ratio. The Bills’ D can match TEN’s among the league’s worst allowing 430 ypg, 5.8 ypc. Last year the Titans beat the Bills 23-17 with RB Johnson running for 153 yds (6.6) and the defense forcing 2 TO’s which led to 10 pts. The main difference here is the rush attack with the Bills having the edge (5.1 vs 3.7 ypc) but keep on eye on their OL which had 3 starters out or questionable last week.

PHIL'S FORECAST: BUFFALO 27 TENNESSEE 23
ARIZONA AT MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 70
149
15
+4
#14
MINNESOTA 112
204
16
-1
#24

This is the 5th straight year these teams have met and last year MIN hammered ARZ 34-10 to secure its 1st win. MIN had a complete game as they jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the 1Q with RB Peterson tallying 122 yds (4.2) on the day. Nine of ARZ’s 13 drives ended in punts/TO’s with another 2 being SOD. The Vikings split their first 2 games this year but since then both lines have gelled. The OL has opened holes for 135 ypg L/4 while allowing only 7 sks on the ssn. The DL allowed 79 ypg and 3.2 ypg before Griffin’s 138 last week but ARZ doesn’t have that type of QB. While MIN’s secondary is a concern vs Fitgerald, I don’t think they will have enough time to allow his favorite deep routes. They failed to top 300 yds in any game prior to putting up 332 last week and their top 2 RB’s are hurt. Add in a Cards OL that has allowed 22 sks the L/3 games and you’ll have Jared Allen (26 sks L2Y) licking his chops. The 4-2 start has the Metrodome back with a sound level reminiscent of ‘09’s playoff team making it even harder to audible. “Purple Power” is back.

PHIL'S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 27 ARIZONA 13
CLEVELAND AT INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEVELAND 168
213
29
+1
#28
INDIANAPOLIS 96
330
22
-8
#30

The Browns beat the Colts 27-19 last year but both teams are massively different vs week 2 of last year. CLE is 0-3 on the road while IND has already has pulled home upsets vs MIN and GB. The Browns have some matchup edges here as while the coaching staff is on the hot seat, they are in their 18th game together while this is the 3rd for interim HC Arians. Also RB Richardson (94 ttl ypg 4.7) gets a favorable matchup vs an undersized 3-4 defense that is 29th vs the run (5.0 ypc). However, CLE’s receiving corps is gradually maturing while Luck has Wayne (36 rec, 14.1) who’s taking advantage of rookie Hilton stretching the field (7 rec, 21.4 L/2 at home). With the rookie QB’s matching up I’ll lean with the Colts at home vs the Browns on a 3rd road game in 4 weeks and playing off their first win since last November while beating a division rival will have them celebrating this week.

PHIL'S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 27 CLEVELAND 24
BALTIMORE AT HOUSTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BALTIMORE 107
263
22
+7
#9
HOUSTON 174
239
26
+8
#25

TJ Yates was at the helm for the Texans when they traveled to Baltimore in Jan losing a Conf Semi-Finals matchup 20-13. The revenge seeking Texans held Flacco and company to 11 FD’s forcing them to punt 9 times. This time Houston has Schaub back (#7, 99.2 QBR). The Texans have done it in the trenches as their OL has allowed 1 total sack in the 4 gms prior to GB while the DL has produced at least 3 sacks per game. The Ravens much publicized fast paced offense has avg’d 385 ypg but on the road they’ve been pedestrian avg 312 ypg and 16 FD’s/gm scoring a total of 20 pts with Flacco at 51% with a 1-2 ratio. The D has also been forced to be on the field more and in the L9Y the Ravens have finished in the top 10 every season and in the top six 8 times but TY their allowing 397 ypg (#26) incl over 480 yds to both PHI and DAL. Last week’s Ravens win may be costly as 3 more defensive starters will not see action here. Houston by comparison has not allowed over 375 yds in any game and is allowing 276 ypg on the season.

PHIL'S FORECAST: HOUSTON 31 BALTIMORE 17
GREEN BAY AT ST LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GREEN BAY 58
242
22
-1
#12
ST LOUIS 131
227
20
+1
#31

Aside from Fisher, the big difference between this team and last year’s is that the defense has been very healthy not losing any starts due to injury. Last year after 5 games they were already down to their 4th and 5th CB’s and their #7 pass defense ranking was misleading as they allowed a 21-12 ratio with just 12 sacks thanks to the #31 rush defense (152 ypg, 4.8). This year STL is giving up 101 ypg (4.0) on the ground with just a 4-8 ratio and with 17 sacks on the year. The Rams also are off the week’s most misleading final as despite losing to MIA 17-14 they outgained them 462-192 but settled for 5 FG’s missing 3. While Rodgers is still putting up solid stats (273 ypg, 68%, 16-4) the Packers passing offense has looked out of sync as the OL has struggled in pass protection (SEA/IND) and the ground game was dismal LW (99, 3.2) without RB Benson (foot) who gave them some much needed balance (out today). Look for GB to come away with the win but for STL to make it tougher than expected here.

PHIL'S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 27 ST LOUIS 23
DALLAS AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DALLAS 136
298
22
-8
#20
CAROLINA 124
182
24
-5
#27
Cam Newton is undeniably in a sophomore slump avg 238 ypg passing (59%) with a 4-5 ratio but the alarming part is that after 5 games he leads the team with 209 yd rushing (5.2). Things didn’t get easier for him on the bye as top 5 C Kalil (foot) landed on IR and while DAL is 14th in run defense they are allowing just 3.8. ypc and have the #1 pass defense. DAL has had OL issues as they were held to under 50 yds rush in 3 of 4 games but last week after a few adjustments ran for a season high with Murray and Jones combining for 185 (5.8). The rush attack allowed Dallas to convert 30 FD’s and finish with a 481-316 yd edge but a KR td proved costly in the 2 pt loss. The coaching staff was already under pressure as they lost 4 games by 4 or less last year and one in OT and now - even with the Giants on deck - the last place Cowboys can not let another winnable game slip away. Despite playing a second straight road game vs a team off a bye I’ll back the desperate Cowboys who have a better offense, better defense and better ST’s unit.
PHIL'S FORECAST: DALLAS 28 CAROLINA 17
WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 110
214
22
+9
#22
NY GIANTS 158
401
39
+7
#21

RG III will see his first NFC East game here and he can expect a special welcome from the NY fans. The Giants have played defenses that have been either elite (3 in top 8) or poor (3 in bottom 10) and against the latter group - which Washington falls into (#27) - NY has averaged 39 ppg and 504 ypg. Another advantage the Giants have is that they’ve already have faced dual threat QB’s in PHI’s Vick and CAR’s Newton and held them to 19 and 7 pts respectively. The Skins evened their record at 3-3 knocking off MIN 38-26 but despite Griffin’s numbers being better on the road vs at home he had early leads in all 3 thanks to a pair of def td’s and an 88 yd rec but it was also vs NO, STL and TB. NY is playing with double revenge after two losses to WAS last year (outscored 51-24) and gets the home win here.

PHIL'S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 31 WASHINGTON 24
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ORLEANS 29
382
25
+1
#7
TAMPA BAY 158
294
28
+3
#26

The Saints league-worst D allowed 427 yds in an emotional Sunday Night win over SD, but while they rank last, they just faced SD, GB, KC and WAS with the L/2 ranked #11 and #5 in total offense. They still have to outscore opponents to win but that’s no concern vs a Bucs squad that has faced 2 other top 10 offenses allowing their starting QB’s 539 ypg and 29 FD’s/gm. I expect marked improvement from the Saints D during the bye week as the interim coaching staff will get to iron out issues. The D has totaled 3 and 5 sacks in 2 of L/3 and that is the clearest way to beat Bucs QB Freeman. While Josh has not been sacked more that twice so far in any game this year, a look back at last year shows his lack of production when getting pressured as Tampa avg’d 11 ppg in those 5 affairs. You know the Saints will want to run up the score vs an inferior team that beat them 2 of the last 3 times.

PHIL'S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 38 TAMPA BAY 27
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY JETS 83
206
21
+1
#6
NEW ENGLAND 199
322
34
+10
#5
It’s hard to believe that Belichick won’t resist kicking an AFC East rival like Rex Ryan when he’s down (ask Chan Gailey). After being stymied early on by the Jets defensive schemes, Brady has torched them the L/3 meetings avg 326 ypg (70%) with an 8-1 ratio with a monster 9.7 ypa (6.8 was NFL avg this year entering last week). NE’s #4 run game takes a lot of stress off the still gelling OL and they could have a field day vs the Jets #28 run defense that is allowing 151 ypg (4.7) this year. In his L/5 games Sanchez has only avg’d 172 ypg (46%) with a 5-5 ratio but it’s not all on him as his top 3 receiving options (Holmes, Hill, Keller) have missed time with injury and RB Greene (sans last week) has been very disappointing this year. No need to overreact to NY’s 35 pts last week as it came on 351 yds vs Indy. Meanwhile, Brady has to feel responsible for last week’s poorly managed game vs SEA as NE had numerous chances to open the margin, but lost by 1 on the road. New England also knows that while the Jets have been bashed, they are tied atop the division as all 4 teams are sitting at 3-3 and if they were to slip up here, the Pats would be trailing the Jets.
PHIL'S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 37 NY JETS 17
JACKSONVILLE AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JACKSONVILLE 97
140
16
-2
#32
OAKLAND 177
326
28
0
#10

JAX didn’t get any schedule breaks as after getting thumped by CHI at home they return from their bye week having to go cross country with another road game vs GB on deck. After a decent season opener, Gabbert has regressed avg 134 ypg (53%) with a 3-3 ratio. What’s more disturbing is that he has a 5.0 ypa and keep in mind MJD who sat out all offseason and camp has a 4.9 ypc this year. Aside from the MIN game, Gabbert has only passed for 200 yds on the road once (210 at CLE last year) and Mularkey’s offense has been held to 10 or less in 3 home games. While McFadden (54 ypg, 3.2) hasn’t adjusted to the zone-blocking scheme, Palmer has shown signs of life (287 ypg, 63%) despite a beat up receiving unit and while his 6-3 ratio isn’t earth shattering it sure beats his 13-16 ratio of last year. Both the offense and defense were impressive vs one of the 2 remaining unbeatens as they left ATL losing on a FG with :01 left after outgaining them 474-286. Can’t see the Jags improving much on their 13 pts, 15 FD’s and 243 ypg especially vs an angry home team that hasn’t played a home game in a month. The Black Hole will be very rowdy and has already helped the Raiders knock off Pittsburgh 34-31 and outgain SD 321-258.

PHIL'S FORECAST: OAKLAND 20 JACKSONVILLE 13
PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PITTSBURGH 62
268
22
+2
#19
CINCINNATI 64
262
25
-7
#8

The Steelers are off a last second Thursday night loss to TEN where they were nickel and dimed by injuries all game long and finished with a 412-359 yd edge on the road. That puts them in a crucial game at CIN where they are 10-1. The Bengals are also off a loss, as the young CLE Browns beat them 34-24 despite CIN having a 438-328 yd edge on the road. CIN has a bye on deck which will allow them to go all, but the veteran Steelers’ squad (which finds itself way behind BAL in the standings) will bully this young division team in its own house.

PHIL'S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 26 CINCINNATI 20

BYES: ATLANTA, DENVER, KANSAS CITY, MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO