Daily Blog • September 5th


Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer's projected box score for each game.

Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 21-1 (95%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 ALABAMA VS WKU
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WKU 25 / 46
135 /178
3 / 0
2.9 / 4
•
ALABAMA
262 / 103
289 / 225
44 / 35
1.3 / 0
–
There is no doubt that the Crimson Tide deserve to be the #1 team in the country after their dismantling of Michigan LW. The Tide looked to be in mid-season form as they led the Wolves 31-0 mid 2Q in their 41-14 win. In the schools’ only other meeting (‘08) Bama won 41-7 with a 557-158 yard edge (+21 FD). UA is 10-0 in home openers with the avg win by 26 points per game. WKU is 0-8 vs ranked opponents with the average score 38-9. . WKU has a huge schedule edge as this is a defining sandwich gm for the Tide coming off the Michigan game with a showdown at Arkansas next week. WKU is also off a season opening win over Austin Peay, 49-10 (+442 yards, +21 FD). I will call for a sluggish performance for the Tide but in the end they still win this one comfortably
PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 35 WKU 3

#2 USC VS SYRACUSE (MetLife Stadium)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
USC 151 / 258
332 / 187
43 / 42
1.8 / 1
•
SYRACUSE
71 / 133
233 / 322
16 / 29
2.9 / 2
–
Last week the #1 Trojans got started in style with a 75 yard td on their very 1st play in a 49-10 win over Hawaii. WR Lee was the star with 197 receiving yardS (19.7) and had a 100 yard KR td and QB Barkley kicked off his Heisman campaign with 372 yards (61%) and a 4-0 ratio. Syracuse found themselves down 35-13 in the 3Q to Northwestern but rallied back to take a 41-35 lead with under 4:00 left. After a critical 15 yard pen by SU, Northwestern scored a td with under 1:00 left and the Cuse dropped a heartbreaker 42-41. Cuse QB Nassib threw for 470 yds while obliterating the school record with 44 completions (was 29) on 65 attempts. Last year USC won 38-17 with a 501-331 yard edge and led 38-10 finishing the game with a 1&gl at the SU5. USC does have Stanford on deck and is traveling from coast-to-coast here but in the end the Trojans have too much here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 45 SYRACUSE 24
#3 LSU VS WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 68 / 26
192 / 157
15 / 3
2.6 / 1
–
LSU
257 / 242
199 / 195
36 / 41
1.9 / 1
•••
LSU HC Les Miles summed up his Tigers 41-14 win over North Texas last week as “imperfect, but with reason to smile” as the Tigers finished with 508 yards (most since ‘07) including 316 rush (6.9). QB Mettenberger threw for 192 (73%) and a 1-1 ratio in his 1st start. LW UW jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the 1Q and held on for a 21-12 win over San Diego St. Last year’s much-maligned D looked improved as they allowed 327 yards which was 126 less than last year’s avg. UW QB Price had 222 yards (71%) and a 1-0 ratio. LSU is 2-0 vs Washington. In the last game (‘09) the Tigers were outgained 478-321 (-8 FD) but had a 29 yard IR td to help them get the 31-23 win. This will be the marquee game for both in the first 3 weeks of the season as they are sandwiched between non-BCS teams. An interesting matchup will be one of the nation’s deepest RB’s corps in LSU vs UW’s new 3-4 D. UW now must contend with the heat and humidity of the Deep South and Saturday night in Tiger Stadium amplifies LSU’s home edge.
PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 40 WASHINGTON 17
#4 OREGON VS FRESNO ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FRESNO ST 123 /131
208/234
20 / 25
2.9 / 0
–
OREGON
340 / 366
259 / 166
48 / 42
1.7 / 3
•••••
I have heard many analysts say that Oregon could have scored 100 pts last week but I think they may be selling the Ducks a little short as they had 50 pts in the middle of the 2Q and could have scored 140! Nonetheless the Ducks raced out to a 50-10 halftime lead then sat their starters in the 2H in the 57-34 win over Arkansas St. New QB Mariota had 200 yards (82%) and a 3-0 ratio and RB’s Barner/Thomas combined for 5 td’s. These tms last met in ‘07 with Oregon winning 52-21 (led 42-6 late in the 1H). UO has outscored non-conference opponents 323-61 at Autzen Stadium the last 3 years! Fresno St beat Weber St 37-10 in HC DeRutyer’s debut. Offensive stars QB Carr (298 pass) and RB Rouse (123 rush) led the way as the Bulldogs outgained the Wildcats 515-274. The Ducks are off an SBC team with an FCS team on deck so they will be focused while Fresno may focus more on next week’s winnable gm at home vs Colorado.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 56 FRESNO ST 21
#5 OKLAHOMA VS FLORIDA A&M
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLORIDA A&M 14 / 61
26 / 174
0 / 13
-
-
OKLAHOMA
299 / 349
414 / 313
53 / 69
-
-
FIRST MEETING
To say the Sooners were underwhleming last week in their 24-7 win over UTEP would be an understatement. The OL had trouble protecting QB Jones, the ST's gave up 2 blk'd punts and the defense was gashed for long runs. They were without some key players on D who were suspended and HC Stoops should be in his players' ears all week. The Rattlers rally fell just short last week as they lost to Tenn St 17-14 after trailing 17-0. Oklahoma has faced just 2 FCS opp since 1999 (last in ‘09) winning by a combined 113-0. Florida A&M almost made the jump up to the FBS several years ago but after rethinking it, remained at the FCS level. They have faced an FBS opponent in each of the last 3 years but all were in-state tms losing by a combined 163-33 in those games including a 70-17 loss to USF LY. With the conference opener on deck and an out of state opponent look for the Rattlers to try to escape this game with their health. I think the Sooners come out strong this week and cruise.
PHIL’S FORECAST:  OKLAHOMA 56 FLORIDA A&M 0
#6 FLORIDA ST VS SAVANNAH ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAVANNAH ST 0 / 19
0 / 9
0 / 0
-
-
FLORIDA ST
350 / 167
395 / 246
71 / 55
-
-
FIRST MEETING
Which All-American defensive player are the Seminoles going to lose today? With DE Jenkins now OFY, the Noles have now lost 2 on that side of the ball but still have great depth. After West Virginia moved from the Big East to the Big 12, they pulled out of their game with FSU, leaving them little time to find a replacement in Savannah St. After never playing an FBS opponent before the Tigers start off in grand fashion with 2 this year as they lost to Oklahoma St 84-0 last week and their HC was still complimentary to OSU for keping the score even at that number. In the past 12 years the Tigers have gone over 2 wins just twice (3-8 in ‘06 and 5-7 in ‘08) with their last winning season being in 1998 (7-4). If you check our FCS Power Poll you will see that Savannah St is #121 out of 122 FCS teams. While the Tigers are here for the $475,000 check, FSU really gets nothing but a home game as they can only count 1 win over an FCS opp toward bowl eligibility, and they defeated Murray St 69-3 last week. Look for the backups to get plenty reps as FSU rolls.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 70 SAVANNAH ST 0
#7 GEORGIA at MISSOURI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GEORGIA 136 / 113
248 / 242
27 / 41
2.3 / 2
–
MISSOURI
116 / 102
240 / 269
28 / 20
2.0 / 3
••••
NO RECENT MATCHUPS
This already was going to be a much-hyped game, then MO DT Richardson made the "old man" comments about the way the Bulldogs play and the fact that no one in the SEC can hang with Missouri...period. Last week Missouri raced out to a 28-0 lead after running just 12pl but HC Pinkel was displeased after a 207 yard 1Q was followed by 53 yards and 0 pts in the 2Q playing his starters deep into the 3Q in the 62-10 win over FCS SE Louisiana. While the score was lopsided, MO benefited from +4 TO’s, 2 defensive td’s and 2 long PR td’s! UGA was sluggish early vs Buffalo (led 24-16 at halftime) but scored three 2H td’s to pull away in their 45-23 win. Frosh RB Gurley was the star running for 100 yards (12.5) and also had a 100 yard KR td. MO will be sky high for their first ever SEC HG while UGA will be playing this gm without at least 2 of its starters on D and 2 more starters could miss meaning that their availability could be the difference in what should be a closely-contested game. Old-man football comes out on top this week.....barely.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 31 MISSOURI 30
#8 ARKANSAS VS ULM
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ULM 86 / 138
242 / 412
17 / 34
2.9 / 1
–
ARKANSAS
201 / 96
361 / 281
49 / 31
1.8 / 2
••••••
LW the Hogs shook off some early game rust (trailed 14-7 2Q), besting FCS Jacksonville St 49-24. QB Wilson set the school record for pass yards in a season opener with 367 (70%, 3-0) but played deeper into the game than many expected. This is the season opener for ULM and this game will be played in Little Rock. The Razorbacks are 9-0 vs ULM. In the last game (‘10) UA had 499-188 yard and 26-10 FD edges in a 31-7 win. Ark has won 20 straight non-conf home games outscoring opponents 44-17 while ULM has lost 18 straight road openers (shutout 6x’s).. The Hogs have a huge showdown vs Bama on deck while the Warhawks had all summer to prep for this. After last week’s slow start, look for the Hogs to explode out of the gate here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 52 ULM 24
#9 SOUTH CAROLINA VS EAST CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
EAST CAROLINA 41 / 70
217 / 333
16 / 10
2.8 / 5
–
SOUTH CAROLINA
229 / 131
267 / 397
35 / 48
2.3 / 1
–
The availability of South Carolina QB Connor Shaw who has early as a couple days ago, could not lift his arm has to be a big concern for Gamecock fans in this one. Last year these two met for the first time since ’90 and it was a strange game as TO’s vaulted EC to a 24-14 halftime lead despite SC having a 175-165 yard edge. SC rolled to a 56-37 win despite only having a 351-345 yard edge. Connor Shaw started for SC but hit just 3-9-29 and when EC led 17-0 Garcia came off the bench (7-15-110). Despite scoring 56 points, SC had just 2 drives of over 50 yards. Last week SC overcame a 13-10 4Q deficit to beat Vanderbilt 17-13. The Dores were driving late but a 4th down pass failed when a SC DB grabbed a Vandy WR and it was not called. QB Shaw had a gutsy performance suffering a bruised right shoulder and missed 2 series but led the game-winning drive. RB Lattimore, returning from his ACL injury, had 110 yards (4.8) but looked tentative early. EC beat Appalachian St 35-13 in their season opener but were outgained 419-390 and only led 14-13 late 3Q. New QB Johnson threw for 242 (65%) with a 2-1 ratio. EC has won 3 straight trips to Columbia including the last time here, 21-3 (‘99) EC does have a young QB making his 1st start in front of 80,000. Spurrier said that after “looking at the preseason press thinking we were hot stuff, maybe last week’s gm was good for us." I'll go with South Carolina but it could be close if Shaw is banged up.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 28 EAST CAROLINA 14
#11 MICHIGAN ST at CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MICHIGAN ST 207 / 173
230 / 322
33 / 41
1.6 / 1
•••
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
63 / 72
206 / 173
14 / 7
2.6 / 3
–
Last week the Spartans outgained Boise St 461-206 but only came away with a 17-13 win as they had 4 TO’s including an IR td. It was the first time BSU had been held without an offensive td since ’97 and MSU dominated the line of scrimmage with a 213-37 rush yard edge (4.1-1.5). RB Bell had a career-high 210 yards (4.8) but QB Maxwell did struggle in his first start throwing 3 interceptions. CM fell behind 24-10 but was able to outscore FCS SEMO 28-3 down the stretch in their 38-27 win last week. RB Tipton ran for a career-high 180 (10.6). This marks CM’s 1st time hosting MSU and “the biggest single event in Mt Pleasant history,” according to the AD and they brought in extra seating for the ticket demand. In ‘09, CM pulled the upset winning 29-27 and was +102 yards. CM HC Enos played QB at MSU from 1986-’89 (also coached there ‘06-’09) and CM QB Morris Watts spent 12 seasons as MSU’s OC in 3 different stints. Last year MSU dominated. CM’s only td came on a 13 yard drive after a blocked punt. MSU won 45-7 (31-0 at half) with a 481-112 yard edge. Michigan St fans figure to make up a good part of the crowd (56 miles apart) but MSU is in a huge sandwich here and this could be closer than what many think.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST 27 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 17
#12 CLEMSON VS BALL ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BALL ST 151 / 252
175 / 128
21 / 27
2.5 / 2
–
CLEMSON
255 / 154
371 / 372
48 / 52
2.2 / 0
•
Playing without star WR Watkins (suspended the first 2) the Tigers overcame a 19-16 4Q deficit to beat Auburn for the 2nd straight year, 26-19 last week. CU QB Boyd had 266 total yards, RB Ellington ran for 231 (8.9) and WR Hopkins set a school record with 13 receptions (9.2) as the Tiger offense didn’t miss a beat rolling up 528 yards. Last Thursday BSU turned a deadlocked 13-13 halftime game into a 37-13 lead early in the 4Q grabbing a key MAC win over Eastern Michigan, 37-26. The Cards rolled up 36 FD’s and 596 total yards including the most rush yards since ’09. CU has won 8 straight home openers by 20 points per game while BSU has dropped 15 straight road openers vs BCS schools by 24 points per game. Ball St HC Lembo has faced 2 BCS teams and lost by a comb 99-13 and the Cards don't have the horses on D to keep up with the Tiger offense.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEMSON 48 BALL ST 20
#13 WISCONSIN at OREGON ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WISCONSIN 202 / 35
143 / 172
26 / 7
1.5 / 2
–
OREGON ST
94 / 78
346 / 276
30 / 10
2.2 / 0
•
UW nearly suffered a shocking loss to N Iowa last week hanging on for a 26-21 win (led 26-7 in 4Q and then fell asleep at the wheel). RB Ball did have 120 yards but only 3.8 ypc. New QB O’Brien was efficient with 219 yards (83%) but certainly is no Russell Wilson. Last year at home, Wisconsin was taking on a banged up OSU team missing many key players. OSU also had a -4 yard punt setting up a 15 yard UW drive for their 1st td. At half UW led 21-0 (209-104 yard). UW did have just 20-17 FD and 397-284 yard edges but won 35-0. This will mark the 1st trip to Corvallis for Wisconsin (2-0 vs OSU). Under Bielema, UW is 4-0 when traveling out West/HI. This is the Badgers “A” gm for Sept with 3 non-BCS teams in their other games and they have a game under belt edge with OSU’s gm vs Nicholls St being PPD last week. After last week’s gm HC Bielema said “Wisconsin football may not be the prettiest thing to watch, but we get W’s.” We expect more of the same here in a close game in what could be another ugly win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WISCONSIN 28 OREGON ST 27
#14 OHIO ST VS UCF
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
UCF 92 / 103
184 / 249
18 / 16
2.3 / 3
–
OHIO ST
212 / 256
223 / 155
33 / 31
2.2 / 3
••
FIRST MEETING
The Urban Meyer era started off in grand fashion as the Bucks destroyed Miami, Oh, 56-10. After being outgained 172-48 and trailing 3-0 in the 1Q, the Bucks exploded for 490 yards in the final 3Q’s led by QB Miller who threw for 207 yards (58%) and added an OSU QB-record 161 rush yards (9.5). The Knights easily won last Thursday over FBS bottom-dweller Akron 56-14. UCF jumped out to a 35-0 halftime lead and never looked back as QB Bortles completed 81%. Both teams are much improved this year but neither is bowl eligible. UCF is 1-22 (beat #13 UH in ‘09) vs ranked opponents. O’Leary and Meyer squared off in ‘06 (only time as HC’s) when UCF lost 42-0 at #7 Florida. This is the 2nd straight week in Ohio for UCF while OSU is in the middle of a 4 game home stand. Meyer is well aware of the job O’Leary has done (UCF campus just 111 miles from Meyer’s old stomping grounds) and the Bucks will not take them lightly here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 31 UCF 20
#15 VIRGINIA TECH VS AUSTIN PEAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
AUSTIN PEAY 0 / 159
19 / 62
0  / 7
-
-
VIRGINIA TECH
252 / 187
325 / 232
46 / 42
-
-
FIRST MEETING

Va Tech comes in after a key ACC win last week over GT. The Hokie D was as good as advertised but unfortunately the offense is a work in progress. It had to be encouraging that much-maligned K Journell overcame a 4Q missed FG to hit the game-tying FG at the end of regulation and then hit a chip-shot for the win. After losing to WKU 49-10 last week the Governors face their first ever ACC opponent, in VT. They have faced 2 other BCS conf teams in the last 2 years losing 72-10 to Cincy LY and 70-3 to Wisconsin in ‘10. APU also has Tennessee St on deck who is not only a conf opp but is a Sgt York Trophy game, which besides the Commander-in-Chief Trophy is one of the only Trophies between more than 2 teams (all FCS TN teams) in college football.
PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 52 austin peay 0
#16 NEBRASKA at UCLA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEBRASKA 222 / 260
184 / 179
32 / 30
2.0 / 2
••
UCLA
191 / 344
217 / 309
25 / 36
2.5 / 1
–
NO RECENT MEETINGS
This is the Rose Bowl debut for new HC Mora who led the Bruins to a Thursday night 49-24 win at Rice in the opener with a 646-358 yard edge. The key play of the game happened late 2Q with UCLA clinging to a 29-24 lead as Holmes returned a fumble 44 yards for a td with :17 left in the 1H. Redshirt frosh QB Hundley hit 21-28 for 202 yards with 2 td’s and 68 rush yards while RB Franklin had 214 yards & 3 td’s. NU beat Southern Miss 49-20 as QB Martinez threw for a career-high 354 yards & 5 td’s (changed throwing motion in offseason). The Huskers finished with a 632-260 yard edge despite losing RB Burkhead in the 1Q. Burkhead is questionable for this game. While UCLA will have an excited home crowd but the Huskers figure to travel about 20,000 fans in the rare West Coast trip in what should be a close gm.
PHIL’S FORECAST: nebraska 24 ucla 23
#17 TEXAS VS NEW MEXICO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW MEXICO 30 / 206
124 / 35
8 / 0
2.9 / 2
–
TEXAS
298 / 146
326 / 146
49 / 45
2.3 / 0
••••
NO RECENT MEETINGS

NM is much improved under 1st yr HC Davie who was the A&M DC from ‘89-’93 and knows UT well. The Lobos rolled to a 66-21 win over FCS Southern in Davie’s debut last week as they had a 347-78 yard rush edge (NM running triple option). UT is a surprise contender for the National Title this year but last week trailed Wyoming 9-7 early before using their 1-2 punch at RB in Bergeron/Brown who each ran for 100+ yards to pull away in 37-17 win. Ash won the QB derby out of fall and was an efficient 20-27 (74%) for 156 yards and a 1-0 ratio. UT is 2-0 vs NM (played in ‘48 & ‘88) with the same 47-0 score for both meetings. The Lobos have dropped 12 straight vs ranked foes (last 2 years average loss by 51 points per game). The Horns should put t

he hammer down here and NM’s performance last week will keep UT focused so I’ll call for another 40+ pt win for UT in this series.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  texas 49 new mexico 7
#18 OKLAHOMA ST at ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OKLAHOMA ST 165 / 200
314 / 436
38 / 38
2.0 / 4
••••
ARIZONA
229 / 181
212 / 320
22 / 59
2.6 / 0
–
LW OSU got its most lopsided win since 1916 over Savannah St as true Fr QB Lunt hit all 11 of his pass attempts for 129 yard playing not even the entire 1Q as the Cowboys took a 35-0 lead. Rich Rod won his UA debut 24-17 over Toledo in OT. The Cats had a 624-358 yard edge but missed 2 chip shot FG’s and had 2 td’s called back as new QB Scott hit 30-46 for 387 yard and rushed for 74 yards. These two have met the last 2 years (3rd meeting L/15 games) with OSU 2-0 (last gm in Tucson in 1942). In the ‘10 bowl, Arizona had a 370-312 yard edge but was -4 in TO’s and OSU won 36-10. LY UA had a young OL making its 1st road start and was without its top WR. OSU had a 306-146 yard edge at half (21-0) and finished with a 594-439 yard edge. No doubt this should be a fun game to watch and expect a lot of points to be scored, but edge has to go to Oklahoma St's defense which could be Gundy's best yet as they get just enough stops.
PHIL’S FORECAST: oklahoma st 42 arizona 31
#19 MICHIGAN VS AIR FORCE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
AIR FORCE 230 / 290
41 / 127
19 / 25
1.9 / 0
•
MICHIGAN
294 / 208
310 / 208
45 / 31
2.8 / 1
–
NO RECENT MEETINGS
UM was overwhelmed last week by defending national champ Bama 41-14 as the Tide controlled the line of scrimmage outrushing the Wolves 232-69 (5.5-2.8). QB Robinson, who was banged up twice (did not miss a snap), did throw for 200 yards (42%) but 115 of those came on 2pl and he was limited to just 27 rush yards (2.7). RB Toussaint (1041 last year) will return this week after being suspended last week. AF rolled up 626 yards including 484 rush (8.3) in their 49-21 win over Idaho St. Hoke has experience vs AF, however, as San Diego St’s HC (‘09-’10) going 1-1 so the option is not foreign to him. UM has 13 returning starters in Hoke’s 2nd year while AF is among the least experienced team in the country with just 6 starters back. Clearly UM has much better personnel, but after last week’s confidence-shaking performance, you have to wonder if they will be ready to go right out of the gate. The Wolves struggle early but pull away in the 2H.
PHIL’S FORECAST:  michigan 34 air force 17
#20 TCU VS GRAMBLING
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GRAMBLING 35 / 44
56 / 276
2 / 0
-
-
TCU
336 / 255
367 / 26
54 / 56
-
-
FIRST MEETING
This is the first game of the 2012 campaign for the Horned Frogs where they have sold a record number of season tickets in their first B12 season. In the last four years, The reigning SWAC Champion Tigers are off a surprising 22-21 conference loss to Alcorn St giving up a TD with 1:33 remaining, with GSU fubling 2 punts leading to 9 of Alcorn St’s points. Last year Grambling lost 35-7 to ULM. Their only prior game vs a Big 12 Opponent was a 56-6 loss in 2009 to Oklahoma St as they were outgained 587-260. With a 2011 SWAC Championship rematch vs Alabama St on deck look for Tigers to just try to get out of this game healthy while TCU has their first B12 game ever on deck vs Kansas. TCU has beaten FCS foes by scores of 67-7, 56-21, 62-7 and 55-13 and look for more of the same here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TCU 56 GRAMBLING 14
#21 KANSAS ST VS MIAMI, FL
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 114 / 40
220 / 222
24 / 13
2.4 / 3
–
KANSAS ST
199 / 288
239 / 210
32 / 52
2.0 / 1
••
All week long, KSU HC Snyder harped on his team about starting fast (last year only beat FCS EKU 10-7 in opener) but the Wildcats found themselves up only 9-6 at halftime vs Missouri St. One of the reasons it was close was the fact they rarely blitzed on D and ran a vanilla offense (QB Klein only 13 rushes). KSU did break free in the 2H in the 51-9 win but the yards were close 493-418. UM is clearly in rebuilding mode in the 2nd year under Golden with just 10 returning starters. Last week, despite being outgained 542-415 and down 14-0 early, they beat Boston College 41-32 on the road snapping a 2 game losing streak to BC. Frosh RB Johnson broke 2 long td runs averaging 19.3 ypc and QB Morris was efficient with 207 yards (62%)! Last year Kansas pulled the upset on the road! Collin Klein threw for 132 yards and ran for 93 and RB Hubert rushed for 166. KSU led 17-3 at half and 21-10 late in the 3Q. UM battled back and down 28-24, QB Harris was stopped on 4&gl at the 1.5 yard line with :49 left.This week Sndyer joked, “that he’s going to tell his team that he wants a very slow start to see what happens.” KSU will put forth a much better effort TW.
PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS ST 31 MIAMI, FL 17
#22 NOTRE DAME VS PURDUE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PURDUE 48 / 90
264 / 198
16 / 17
3.0 / 2
–
NOTRE DAME
182 / 52
303 / 324
38 / 20
2.9 / 1
•
ND is coming off a trip to Ireland but wanted an early start time vs Navy (9 am EDT) so they could get back by Sunday morning and not interrupt their upcoming game week prep. ND was without last year’s starters QB Rees/RB Wood (both suspended) but didn’t miss a beat as rFr QB Golson threw for 144 (67%) and RB’s Riddick/Atkinson comb for 206 (7.4) and 4 td’s in their 50-10 win. Purdue starting QB TerBush was a late scratch (suspended, will start here) but experienced backup Marve came on to throw for a career-high 295 (79%) and 3 td’s in the Boilers 48-6 win over EKU. PU had 33-10 FD and 547-190 yard edges but had 5 TO’s. ND is now 6-1 (4 straight wins by 15 points per game) in this series. Last year PU had just the 7th night game ever in Ross Ade Stadium history (3rd vs ND) and for the 1st time since ’96 had bye the week before the Irish. ND still dominated with a 551-276 yard edge. ND had a 314-122 yard edge at halftime, led 35-3 mid-4Q and won 38-10 on the road with PU driving 95 yards for a garbage td with :21 left. PU has only beaten ND in South Bend one time since ’74 (1-14). The Irish will still have last year’s home opener debacle vs USF fresh in their minds and while PU is much improved look for the Irish to pull out the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 35 PURDUE 21
#23 LOUISVILLE VS MISSOURI ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MISSOURI ST 88 / 99
135 / 150
7 / 7
-
-
LOUISVILLE
207 / 131
278 / 344
38 / 35
-
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FIRST MEETING
The Cards and particularly QB Bridgwater (19-21 pulled in 3Q) were impressive last week in their 32-14 win over in-state rival Kentucky. Last year LOU struggled with FCS Murray St in their opener 21-9 but look like an improved team this year and are the media's favorite to win the Big East. The Bears are no stranger to FBS opponents as they have played at least one every year since 1990. They played 2 FBS opp LY losing by a combined 107-17 to #12 Oregon and #15 Arkansas. Last week they lost 51-9 to Kansas St but were tied 9-9 in the 3Q before the Wildcats ran up the score in the including 35 pts in the 4Q. The Cards have one extra day less to prep but LW's HT score of KSt/MoSt has to catch their eye and they should coast here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: LOUISVILLE 38 MISSOURI ST 14
#24 FLORIDA at TEXAS A&M
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLORIDA 122 / 142
239 / 165
25 / 20
2.3 / 0
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TEXAS A&M
152 / 134
259 / 200
26 / 17
2.5 / 0
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NO RECENT MEETINGS
This is the inaugural SEC gm for A&M and their 1st game in the Sumlin era as last week’s gm vs LT was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac. The Gators struggled last week in all phases as they were tied in the 3Q with BG before pulling away with a 27-14 win. UF had 14 penalties, allowed 327 yards and missed a chip-shot FG in the win. QB Driskel got the majority of the snaps after a tightly contested QB battle in camp but RB Gillislee was the star with a career-high 148 yards (6.2).UF HC Muschamp is no stranger to A&M as he was the LB/DC at Texas from ‘08-’10, winning 2 of 3. He threw gasoline on the bonfire with an offhand comment at a Florida booster club meeting earlier this year saying, “You ever been to College Station? It’ll be the only time you go.” The Gators are my pick to win the SEC East featuring one of the top D’s in the country (10 starters back) and will be taking on a inexperienced QB making his first start in front of the home crowd with new schemes on both sides of the ball. No doubt the Aggies will be fired up but UF should come out of College Station with the “W”.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA 30 TEXAS A&M 21
#25 STANFORD VS DUKE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DUKE 47 / 27
229 / 358
23 / 13
2.6 / 4
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STANFORD
223 / 92
296 / 281
35 / 50
2.1 / 1
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The Cardinal almost blew a 17-3 halftime lead last week in a 20-17 Friday night win over San Jose St in which they were outgained 288-280. Tied at 17 late 3Q a Spartans fumble at their own 25 set up the game-winning 20 yard FG with 13:58 left. Duke scored 30 2Q points including a blocked FG which was returned 75 yard for a td to beat FIU 46-26. Last year at home, after a 76 yard IR td, Duke only trailed 10-7 with 2:24 left 2Q. Duke recovered an onside kick but punted 13 yards and SU went 59/4pl for a td with :39 left. Duke was SOD at the SU14 on the opening 3Q drive and the Cardinal would score td’s on their next 4 possessions to lead 44-7 before a Duke td with :57 left. The visitor is 3-0 in the series but last year was the only recent meeting. SU has a huge game vs USC on deck (Duke has an FCS tm) but the Cardinal will want to atone for LW's shaky performance while Duke is feeling good about themselves.
PHIL’S FORECAST:  STANFORD 38 DUKE 17
Upsets of the Week:
Northwestern over Vanderbilt