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TB’s Schiano returns to the NY/NJ area where he was the Rutgers HC from 2001-11. LW the Giants became the first defending SB Champs to lose the mid-week opener in nine such contests as they dropped a key div gm to DAL 24-17. The secondary which was thought to be improved after being torched last year for 255 pass ypg (#29) gave up 307 yds. TB, on the other hand, got off to a great start with a 16-10 win over CAR. The Bucs D limited the Panthers to just 0 pts in the 1H and harassed CAR QB Newton all day and forced 2 int’s. NYG has been downright mediocre at home the last 3+ yrs going 13-12. The Giants certainly want to get LW’s bad taste out of their mouths. However, this is their only non-marquee gm of the first 4 weeks as they play on Primetime the next 2 wks. I’ll call for the Giants by 10.

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NE did what they do best vs TEN as they only had 3 pen and no TO’s in their 31-14 win. While Brady was below his normal level throwing for 236 he still completed 74% of his passes throwing 12 of his 23 to his TE duo. The Pats offense took what was given to them and Stevan Ridley who never topped 15 carries or 97 yds LY took over with 21-125 rushing. Belichick also goes to 4-0 vs QB’s making their 1st start as they held TEN to 4.7 ypp and knocked Locker out of the game. This week they face Kolb who SEA didn’t game plan for LW in the Cards win. The Pats continue to roll here.

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In Luck’s debut he got off to a slow start on the road in the 41-21 loss to CHI. While he did have 309 yds passing, he threw 3 int’s and had trouble moving the ball as of IND’s 13 drives, only 2 were more than 6pl. However, he now gets to make his home debut vs a Vikings back 7 that I rank as the league’s worst (LB’s #31, DB’s #31). MIN also comes into this gm with a banged up Ponder with possibly backup Webb st’g and will be missing a st’g LB. The Vikings were able to pull out a 26-23 OT win vs JAX LW but it has to be troublesome that much-maligned JAX QB Gabbert had a career-day vs them. On the bright side, RB Peterson looked to be fully recovered from the ACL injury as he ran for 84 yds (4.9) and 2 td’s. Wins will be hard to come by TY for the Colts but with the home crowd behind them, look for Luck and Co to nab one here.

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The Saints are 5-1 in this series the L/3Y (avg’d 36 ppg L/3). LY in Wk 5 here they won 30-27. Prior to “Bounty Gate” this game would have been a no-brainer but the offensive dynamics have changed with NO HC Payton being out as evident in their 40-32 loss to WAS LW. While the Saints scored 32 pts they had multiple 3&outs and QB Brees' comp % was just 46% after completing 71% of his passes LY. When Payton was calling the plays on sidelines LY, they dropped a div game to TB and managed just 283 yds vs STL in a loss, which was 193 ypg under their avg. CAR trailed 13-0 at HT LW and never could recover after a lightning delay despite Newton’s 303 yds passing (did throw 2 int’s). LY at home CAR was 0-4 vs tms with a winning record getting outscored by 11 ppg and look for more of the same here.

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BUF is 4-1 vs KC and this is the 5th straight year these teams have met. This is a rare NFL revenge game as KC’s 41-7 blow out loss in LY’s season opener was their worst home loss in 35 years. BUF scored 20 pts off a missed FG and 3 TO’s starting when KC fumbled the opening KO en route to being outgained 364-213. BUF is off a 48-28 loss to NYJ. The gm was even more dominant than the score indicated as the Bills trailed 41-7 before scoring 3 td’s and piling up 214 yds in their final 4 drives. KC is off a home opening loss to ATL in which Cassell struggled after missing the final 7 games LY on the IR. However by looking back at 2010 he threw for a higher % on the road (60.4 vs 55.8%) while also having a 14-4 ratio. While both tms are 0-1 I'm picking the team that I project to make the playoffs TY to get the bounce back win.

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PHI has a big situational edge with this game being sandwiched between CLE and ARZ road games. BAL is off a big MNF Div matchup with a SNF game vs NE on deck. Harbaugh used to be the Eagles STC and has an insight into their operation. After virtually missing all of preseason, PHI was lucky to have escaped CLE with the win as Vick was very rusty with 317 yds (52%) with a 2-4 ratio. The Eagles did tally a 456-210 yd edge and RB McCoy kept the team from imploding with 110 yds rushing (5.5). They now return home after holding RB Richardson to 39 yds rushing (2.1) with CLE gaining just 74 yds (6 FD) in the 2H. BAL has set out to be a more Flacco driven team despite the fact he avg’d just 224 ypg (57%) with a 10-6 ratio on the road LY. PHI had the #10 pass def and led the NFL with 50 sacks LY (2 LW) with their DB’s playing zone instead of man which they prefer. I’ll call for PHI to get the win to make up for LW’s poor offensive showing.

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The last time a pair of true rookie HC’s squared off was ‘08 as John Harbaugh and Tony Sparano met in the Wild Card round in 2008. What happens often with rookie QB’s or a new starter is they look good early as teams don’t have film on them and HOU showed what they could do LW holding MIA to just 99 total yds in the 2nd half. Operating with the worst WR unit in the NFL, Tannehill had 219 yds (56%) with an 0-3 ratio as HOU’s press D shut him down. MIA has an obvious situational edge with OAK coming cross country off a MNF home Div game. These 2 are in the bottom tier of my power rating numbers. Both teams have decent defenses and I will call for the home team to win a low-scoring affair.

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CLE did a decent job of shutting CIN down in the 1st meeting LY until QB Dalton caught CLE in the huddle and hit WR Green for a 41 yd td. CLE LW used 4 Vick int’s to lead 16-10 but PHI went 91/16pl to score the GW td with 1:18 left in the Browns 8th straight ssn opening loss. CIN is off a div MN game at BAL where they were blown out. The Bengals avg’d only 20 ppg at home and only 19 ppg vs their div LY. QB Weeden is making his first road start after having a 5.1 QBR (12-35, 118, 0-4) but remember PHI’s wide 9 D is unusual and they led the NFL in sacks LY. The Browns D is legit, but I’ll take the Bengals in what I feel will be a low scoring game.

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LY the Texans held the Jags to 174 yds at home and while they gained a ssn low at JAX it was the first game after Schaub was inj’d and the D showed what they can do vs a young QB as they totaled 7 sacks and all’d 14 FD’s. As I expected MJD was a shell of himself in LW’s game at MIN (77, 4.1) and while the Vikings rush D was #11 LY HOU was #2. LW the Texans saw rookie QB Tannehill with no film but after DC Phillips made his HT adjustments they allowed 94 total 2H yards and 5 FD’s on the final 7 drives. The HOU D now gets to face another young QB in Gabbert who did have a career-day LW which will get the attention of the HOU D. Expect HOU to show no mercy as they have now learned how to win and LY Schaub only got to face one div foe away and they pummelled TEN 41-7 (518-148 yd edge). After just 1 wk, HOU already has a one gm lead on the rest of the AFC South and they will want to make another statement here as to who the top dog is.

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LY DAL, at home, won 24-14 but it could have been worse as they were SOD at the S24 and were held to FG’s twice after having 1&gl at the 8 and 1&gl at the 1. The Cowboys knocked off the defending SB Champs on Wed and despite B2B away gms to start the season the travel is negated by the extra rest. DAL seems to relax away from home especially Romo as LY he avg’d 231 ypg passing at home and 280 ypg away and that cont’d LW with 307 (76%, 3-1) vs the NYG. I credit the SEA fans for causing the most false start pen in the NFL s/’07 (111, next best 99) but have much less worries about the veteran DAL team compared to an overexcited Russell Wilson making his home debut.

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The top 2 tenured and future HOF HC’s square off although this is Fisher's 1st home game as STL’s HC. The Skins are in an unusual scheduling spot opening with B2B road games. RG3 handled the noise of the Superdome with no problems as after his first 6 passes were dumpoffs behind the LOS he then threw an 88 yd td pass finishing with 320 yds (73%) with 2 tds and no int’s. The Skins 464 yds of offense topped any of their 2011 performances. STL traveled to face DET and despite their run game getting shutdown (78, 2.9) Bradford (198, 68%, 2-0) led them to a 23-20 lead with 1:55 left but the Rams D allowed an 80/9pl drive and a 5 yd td pass with :10 left. This STL team has a new mentality but the talent is just not there yet as they drop another close gm.

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The Jets quickly shut down criticism of their inability to score in preseason by hanging 48 pts on the Bills LW. Their defense set up 17 pts off 3 TO’s, returned an int 40 yds for a TD and the special teams added a 68 yd PR for a TD. Ryan’s Jets get a PIT team at less than 100% (RB/OL/LB) off a marquee rematch in primetime vs the Broncos. Keep in mind PIT is also working out the kinks in a new offense under OC Todd Haley, while the Jets defense is more than capable of shutting down PIT’s pass attack which lacks an imposing ground game to back it up. Sanchez was kept clean vs BUF’s upgraded pass rush LW which should bode well vs an ever aging Steeler D. The Jets did beat PIT 22-17 in 2010 and I’ll call for them to pull another upset here.

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The Chargers are off “Raider Week” on MNF and now face a TEN team for the 3rd time in 4 yrs with a beat up and inexperienced QB. Locker inj’d his left shoulder vs NE in the 4Q and did not finish, but he ret's here. After TEN’s opening drive went 70/12pl for a FG, they were held to 34 yds or less on their next 5 drives with 3 punts and 2 TO’s under Locker. NE would roll to a 34-13 win. SD’s def held foes to 179 ypg (62%) with a respectable 12-10 ratio at home LY and RB Johnson didn’t impress with just 20 yds (0.4) on the ground LW. While SD did give up a big chunk of yards on the ground LY (122 ypg 4.4 20th) all of their roster moves on defense were aimed at improving that number. SD outscores NDIV foes by an avg of 33-18 at home and gets the win here.

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A great Sun Night Marquee game! SF is the only NFC team to open vs a pair of playoff teams from LY. After LW’s 30-22 win vs GB they return to Candlestick for this one. SF’s D was #4 LY but they only played 2 teams at home that were in the top 10 in passing and that was the Cowboys (DAL 472-206 yd edge) and the NYG (Giants 395-305 edge). DET seeks revenge for their 1st loss LY (25-19) as they were 5-0 LY facing a 4-1 SF squad. The Lions were able to escape with a win last week as Stafford overcame a shaky performance to throw a td pass with :05 left. The 49ers offense did look much improved LW and there's no question their defense is among the best in the NFL. Playing at home, I'll go with the 49ers to move to an impressive 2-0.