Daily Blog • September 19, 2012

 

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer's projected box score for each game.

Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 18-4 (82%) and on the year they are 59-9 87%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 ALABAMA VS FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLORIDA ATLANTIC -17 / 76
77 / 34
0 / 7
4.1
ALABAMA
289 / 256
278 / 247
62 / 40
1.3
••••
FIRST MEETING
While I picked Florida St to win the national title this season in my magazine, if I were an AP voter, I would clearly have the Tide at #1 on my ballot until they lose a football game which I think they will much later in the year. At the end of 2011 my power ratings had these two #1 and #120. This year Bama had the SBC’s WKU in a Michigan/Ark sandwich and won 35-0 but struggled. However, the Tide looked dominant again last week handing a Wilson-less Arkansas team its worst loss s/’05 and pitching B2B shutouts for the 1st time s/’80. McCarron is #3 FBS pass eff (202 ypg, 64%, 7-0) while the D has already forced an FBS best 12 TO’s. Pelini’s team is coming off B2B SEC road games and health will be priority here, having their SBC home opener on deck. FAU lost 56-20 to UGA last week but were tied with the Bulldogs at 14 in the 2Q. The Owls wore down and were outgained 713-318 with their final score a 42 IR td in the 4Q. Bama has its conf home opener vs Ole Miss on deck and is looking to make it 3 straight goose eggs.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 55 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0
#2 LSU AT AUBURN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
LSU 228 / 182
158 / 169
34 / 12
1.4
AUBURN
130 / 86
206 / 97
21 / 10
3.5
Is it possible that the Tigers have kind of been flying under the radar so far this season with all the talk on Alabama and USC? Miles is 5-2 vs Auburn and LY LSU got the largest MOV for LSU in this series. It was 45-3 when AU drove 86/10pl for a td with 2:22 left. AU did give Clint Mosley his 1st career start (12-20-145). While AU has a bye on deck they have been tested with games vs Clemson in ATL and a road trip to Miss St (both losses) and last week’s 31-28 OT win over ULM. LSU is off 3 home games (Idaho last week 63-14) with Towson on deck but is 3-0 outscoring its foes 48-10 (+265 ypg). LSU QB Mettenberger is making his 1st road start. It’s tough seeing AU QB Frazier who is avg 150 ypg (51%) with a 2-5 ratio having much success vs my #6 D. Many people are not giving Auburn a chance in this game but keep in mind the home team is 11-1 in this series. I think it will be closer than what many are predicting but in the end, LSU has too much up front for Auburn to handle.
PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 27 AUBURN 13
#3 OREGON VS #22 ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 185 / 89
203 / 243
28 / 0
2.4
OREGON
316 / 228
282 / 267
42 / 49
2.3
•••
This has been a high scoring matchup as in the L/4 UO’s avg win has been by 51-37 and UO has only been -23, +18, +31 and +36 yards in the 4 meetings. LY UO was on the road and LaMichael James rushed for a school record 288 yards. The Ducks had 1H td drives of 2:42, 2:19, 2:06, 2:02, 1:37 and led 35-3 with 2:45 left 2Q. UA did get as close as 35-24 with 2 td drives to open the 3Q but UO opened it back up to 49-24 in the 56-31 win. Both teams enter 3-0 but UO has backed off in 2H of games (led Ark St 50-3, Fresno 35-3 and TT 35-7). Having a mobile QB to work with has proved wonders for 1st yr HC Rodriguez as the Cats are avg 612 ypg and Matt Scott has also been sensational in the pass gm avg 332 ypg (72%) with a 7-1 ratio. On the other side Duck QB Mariota is avg 225 ypg (75%) with an 8-1 ratio. The Ducks have all the edges (off #4-17, def #26-60, ST’s #13-79) and look for them to keep their foot on the gas this week. This will easily be the highest scoring game of the weekend.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 65 ARIZONA 35
#4 FLORIDA ST VS #10 CLEMSON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEMSON 93 / 136
190 / 290
18 / 37
2.2
FLORIDA ST
208 / 287
293 / 380
45 / 49
2.1
••
LY I liked CU as they were in a great situation. They were off a big win vs Auburn but were at home a 2nd straight week while FSU had just faced #1 Okla in their “Game of the Season” and came up short while also losing their QB and backup FSU QB Trickett got his 1st start on the road. After the game was over, Tiger fans celebrated like they won a national title and they had 26-19 FD and 455-365 yd edges in the 35-30 win but it was still closer than what I expected. FSU has dominated so far this season as expected outscoring their foes 176-3 and last week amassed 385 rush yards avenging their loss to WF last year in a big way 52-0. RB Thompson had 197 rush yards last week (21.8!) and will be facing a CU D that has allowed 180 rush ypg (4.8) TY. The CU off has been impressive so far averaging 518 ypg but the FSU D is allowing just 103 ypg. CU did get WR Watkins back last week in a 41-7 win over Furman and their QB Boyd is avg 249 ypg (73%) with a 6-1 ratio. However, he lines up behind an OL with 3 new starters and 7 underclassman in the 2 deep facing the top D-line in the country on the road. That gives FSU the matchup edge as they continue their Revenge Tour 2012 by playing their “A” game here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 37 CLEMSON 17
#5 GEORGIA VS VANDERBILT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
VANDERBILT 135 / 106
135 / 231
18 / 3
2.0
GEORGIA
192 / 302
279 / 265
35 / 48
1.7
UGA was on the road last year but allowed a fake P to set up a td and kept settling for FG’s leaving VU in the game as they also allowed a 96 yd KR td. The Dogs were up 23-7 before hanging on for a 33-28 win. There was a heated exchange on the field after the game between UGA DC Grantham and Vandy HC Franklin and it has been mentioned by both sides so far this week as a possible motivating factor. Both are off wins vs overmatched foes but VU has a bye on deck while UGA has Tenn/SC. Last week VU beat Presbyterian 58-0. QB Carta-Samuels got the surprise start and went 13-20-195-1-0. GA was tied 14-14 mid-2Q vs FAU last week but then scored 42 straight points as QB Murray threw for a career-high 342 yards (outgained Owls 713-318). They were playing without 3 D starters including AA LB Jones who was given a breather with a nagging groin injury. The Dogs have the edges on off (#10-60) and def (#11-29) and Carta-Samuels has just a 3-6 career ratio on the road and hasn’t seen this type of speed on D in 2 years. Since VU put a scare into the UGA late LY, they will take them more seriously here.
PHIL’S FORECAST:  GEORGIA 38 VANDERBILT 17
#6 OKLAHOMA VS #15 KANSAS ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS ST 186 / 213
113 / 149
22 / 24
2.0
OKLAHOMA
199 / 88
358 / 298
42 / 19
1.8
Last year OU was off a loss and was the lower ranked team (#11 vs #10). It was the story of two halves. KSU led 17-14 in the 2Q. They missed a 25 yd FG with 4:27 left and trailing 20-17 fumbled on 2&12 with :19 left in the half and OU got a 53 yd FG on the final play to lead 23-17. The 2H was all OU and Landry Jones threw for a school record 505 yards. KSU punted on their first 5 2H possessions and OU scored td’s on each and won 58-17. Last week K-St beat NT 35-21 as QB Klein had another gutsy performance with 315 comb rush/pass yards. Last year vs the elite Big 12 defenses (OU and Texas) the Wildcats averaged 182 ypg and 11.5 FD/gm. The Sooners have a dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield with Whaley and Williams and will be run over a KSt D that is all'g just 93 rush ypg.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 42 KANSAS ST 21
#7 SOUTH CAROLINA VS MISSOURI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MISSOURI 86 / 109
228 / 146
18 / 10
2.3
•••
SOUTH CAROLINA
167 / 144
245 / 252
30 / 31
2.8
A matchup of banged up starting QB’s. This will be MO’s 1st SEC road game as their first SEC home game was a misleading 41-20 loss to UGA 2 wks ago (led 17-9 in 3Q). Huge schedule edge to SC off EC/UAB with Kentucky on deck while the Tigers are off UGA and a revenge gm vs ASU with a trip to UCF on deck. Last week the Tigers were able to get a solid win over ASU 24-20 (did lead 24-7 in 3Q) as QB Berkstresser started in place of the injured Franklin and threw for 198 (51%) with an 0-1 ratio, and MO’s D forced 4 TO’s. There was some news that Franklin refused to take a pain-killing shot in order to play the gm which did not seem to please HC Pinkel but he should be back here. Last week the Gamecocks beat UAB 49-6 but it was misleading (FD’s even) and even HC Spurrier admitted in post-game that is was the closest 49-6 gm he’s ever seen. SC QB Shaw did injure his shoulder again but still should be able to go here. Even if he can't go his backup Thompson is plenty capable and threw for 300+ yards 2 weeks ago. LY the elusive Franklin kept Mizzou from allowing more than 2 sks in any game but it’ll be different vs a pair of All-SEC DE’s and the Tigers do have a beat-up OL.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 24 MISSOURI 17
#8 WEST VIRGINIA VS MARYLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MARYLAND 133 / 46
174 / 305
21 / 21
2.9
WEST VIRGINIA
160 / 25
374 / 338
46 / 31
2.1
LY it  was the story of two halfs. At the half WV had a 302-176 yd edge and after the opening drive of the 3Q led 34-10. MD then was SOD at the WV6 but went 61/5pl, 44/7pl (after int) and 66/12pl for td’s to make it 34-31 (10:29). WV got a 21 yd FG with 4:42 left and MD was intercepted at the WV13 with 1:13 left. While WV does have its much-anticipated Big 12 home opener on deck, they are off a bye and James Madison. WV beat the Dukes last week 42-12 in Washington DC thanks to 5 Geno Smith td passes. The Heisman candidate is completing 88% this year with a 9-0 ratio! MD is much improved this year at 2-1 but last week they did lose 24-21 vs Edsall’s fired up former school, Conn. WV has huge edge on off (#1-104). It’s also safe to say the Terps D may be shell-shocked having faced FCS W&M, Temple and Conn. Look for WV to get another comfortable win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WEST VIRGINIA 45 MARYLAND 17
#11 NOTRE DAME VS #18 MICHIGAN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MICHIGAN 123 / 161
199 / 138
20 / 6
2.6
NOTRE DAME
175 / 94
278 / 145
34 / 13
1.9
•••
This is an underdog series as there have been 11 outright upsets S/'92 incl each of the last three years! Last year UM was at home in the 1st night game ever at Michigan Stadium. ND appeared to have it won numerous times. At half ND led 17-7 with a 15-3 FD edge and then led 24-7 after 3Q’s. ND fumbled at the UM7 with 6:08 left and UM took the lead with 1:12 left on a 21 yard td pass. ND drove 60 yards and got a 29 yard td pass with :30 left to apparently re-pull out the win but UM got a 64 yd pass to the 16 and then opted to go for the td and got it with :02 left. ND finished with a 28-16 FD edge. Now ND gets this gm at home and at night. Last week for the 2nd year in a row ND dominated the LOS vs MSU (held them to 50 rush yards, 4 sks) in the 20-3 victory as the Irish got their first win over a Top 10 tm s/’05 and are 3-0 for the first time s/’02. UM meanwhile continues to be the DRob show for the 3rd consecutive year as last week he accounted for 397 yards (averaging 350 run/pass ypg) and 4 td’s in a 63-13 win over UMass. He also remarkably 2 wks due to penalties had more total offensive yards than Michigan had! Robinson has been a thorn in ND’s side each of the last 2 years accounting for 948 comb rush/pass yards. ND has lost 3 straight games in this series by 4 ppg all by allowing a UM td in the final :30. With ND’s fielding one of the best front 7’s in CFB, I will call for that trend to end here as they finally contain Robinson.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 31 MICHIGAN 21
#13 USC VS CALIFORNIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CALIFORNIA 139 / 77
211 / 173
20 / 9
2.5
USC
185 / 296
321 / 192
41 / 27
2.1
•••
USC is now 8-0 (avg win by 19 ppg) in this series. LY these two met on a Thursday Night and USC won comfortably 30-9 the week before playing ND. USC had allowed 84 points and 946 yards the previous 2 games but held Cal to 329. Maynard hit 25-43-294 yards but accounted for 4 TO’s (USC +3 TO, Cal 329-313 yd edge). The last time here the Trojans rolled to a 48-14 win with a commanding 602-245 yd edge (372-65 half). The Trojans were playing without their All-P12 C Holmes last week and it showed as Stanford outgained them 417-280 and USC was held to just 26 rush yards while Barkley was sacked 4x in the 21-14 loss HC Kiffin made news this week calling out his QB on some poor throws but Barkley agreed. Cal is off an impressive effort at OSU. After trailing 20-7 at halftime, the Bears tied it up at 28 in the 4Q before a busted coverage allowed OSU to hit a 72 yd td pass in the 35-28 loss (Cal did miss 3 FG’s). With their national champ hopes taking a severe hit last week, it will be interesting to see how the Trojans respond but I think they’ll bounce back in a big way.
PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 41 CALIFORNIA 20
#14 FLORIDA VS KENTUCKY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KENTUCKY 49 / 159
157 / 60
7 / 0
2.6
FLORIDA
276 / 200
302 / 203
41 / 38
1.6
•••
Florida has now won 25 in a row vs Kentucky and has outscored UK 115-6 in the 1Q of the last 5. Last year UF led 31-10 on the road at half and rolled to a 48-10 win (405 rush yards). After 2 SEC road games, this is the Gators SEC home opener. However, they are off 2 impressive comeback wins as they trailed A&M 17-7 before scoring 13 unanswered and last week trailed 20-13 before scoring 24 unanswered in their 37-20 win at Tennessee. QB Driskel (so much for a 2-QB system) continues to improve each week (14-20-219-2-0 vs UT) as the Gators outgained UT 555-340. UK HC Phillips maybe on the hottest seat in America following a 32-31 OT loss to WKU. The Cats roared back from a 24-10 3Q deficit to send it to OT but in the end could not overcome QB Smith’s 4 int’s. Gators’ HC Muschamp said there’s a “night-and-day” difference in the toughness of this year’s team and I agree as the Gators easily move to 4-0 and look every bit like the team I picked to win the SEC East!
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA 41 KENTUCKY 7
#16 OHIO ST VS UAB
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
UAB 55 / 144
203 / 259
9 / 15
2.9
OHIO ST
286 / 204
266 / 143
50 / 29
2.0
•••
FIRST MEETING
The Bucks are off last week’s 35-28 win over Cal where they led 20-7 at halftime but allowed two long td runs and found themselves tied at 28-28 before Miller found Smith for a 72 yd td pass with 3:26 left. Miller did throw for a career-high 4 td passes and after averaging 22 carries the first 2 weeks he had just 12 last week as they want to keep him fresh for the entire season. UAB is in the 2nd of B2B away vs BCS Top 15 teams and while they did lose 49-6 to SC last week, the FD’s were even at 20 and SC HC Spurrier said, “This was one of the closest 49-6 games I have ever been around.” OSU does have a huge game at Michigan St next week. Look for plenty of the OSU backups to get work and after last week Meyer said, “The best thing about 3-0 is the chance to go 4-0.” The Bucks easily do so here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 49 UAB 7
#17 TCU VS VIRGINIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
VIRGINIA 84 / 164
242 / 189
18 / 7
2.4
TCU
202 / 133
302 / 305
39 / 27
2.2
••••
TCU won the last meeting vs UVA in ‘09. TCU led 30-0 w/4:39 left in the 4Q as UVA gained 61% (108) of its yards after (14 points). Under Patterson, TCU is 19-2 at home vs non-conference opponents (1st BCS foe to visit s/’08). The Frogs are off their first ever Big 12 road game (beat KU 20-6) and has a revenge game vs SMU on deck (TCU 25-1 at home s/’05, only loss LY to SMU). UVA is in a tough spot coming off Penn St with their ACC opener vs the option of GT on deck (lost 56-20) and is on a 2nd straight road trip flying all the way to TX. UVA did play very well LY knocking off Miami, FL (28-21) and Florida St (14-13) and I would be surprised if they didn’t put forth a maximum effort here as I do think the TCU defense is a bit overrated this year. I'll call for the Frogs to pull out a tougher than expected win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TCU 31 virginia 24
#19 UCLA VS OREGON ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OREGON ST 120 / 122
219 / 379
15 / 27
2.5
UCLA
189 / 72
256 / 372
25 / 20
2.6
Mike Riley had a streak of not beating UCLA which ended in ‘08 with a 34-6 win on the road. In ‘09 at home they won 26-19 but have dropped 2 in a row since. In fact, UCLA is now 7-2 in this series. Last year UCLA pulled the upset 27-19 and led 21-3 when they gave up an 85 yd PR td with :13 left in the half. OSU, trailing 27-19, got to the UCLA24 but was SOD with 2:12 left. Due to OSU’s opener being cancelled the Bruins have a 3-1 game-under-belt edge and are 3-0 this year after beating UH 37-6 last week. RFr QB Hundley has been spectacular averaging 276 ypg (67%) with an 8-3 ratio and RB Franklin continues to lead the NCAA with 541 yards (8.2). While Oregon St’s win over Wisconsin 2 weeks ago looked impressive at the time, UCLA has flexed its muscles on both offense/defense in recent weeks and may be this year’s MIP team to date.
PHIL’S FORECAST: UCLA 31 OREGON ST 17
#20 LOUISVILLE AT FIU
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
LOUISVILLE 119 / 129
238 / 194
31 / 28
1.8
FIU
128 / 128
249 / 198
20 / 21
2.2
Louisville is playing with revenge. Last year these two met for the first time and FIU got its first ever win over a BCS foe. UL actually had 24-9 FD and 446-293 yd edges at home but 3 big plays gave FIU the win (71 yd IR td, 74 and 83 yd td pass). FIU does have its SBC opener on deck but will be excited for the rare visit from a ranked BCS foe. While FIU is 0-4 hosting BCS schools, they did blow a 4Q lead last year vs Duke and in their last 2 outgained Duke and Rutgers by an average of 470-278. The Cards are the only Big East team to be ranked but nearly blew a 36-7 halftime lead vs North Carolina last week as UNC scored 20 straight 4Q points and had a potential td pass deflected in the EZ with 1:53 left. QB Bridgewater is #7 FBS pass eff (285 ypg, 82%, 5-0). FIU was at the other end of the spectrum last week as they fell behind UCF 23-0 at the half with just 2 FD’s and 26 total yards. They did cut it to a 10 pt deficit early 4Q before the Knights went on a 6:49, 69/14pl FG drive which put the game away. FIU is dangerous but UL picks up the win.     
PHIL’S FORECAST:  LOUISVILLE 31 FIU 24
#21 MICHIGAN ST VS EASTERN MICHIGAN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
EASTERN MICHIGAN 90 / 46
69 / 137
5 / 7
3.4
MICHIGAN ST
266 / 269
239 / 159
38 / 23
1.9
•••
After a loss to CM in ’09, MSU has outscored the MI MAC schools by a 43-11 average margin. MSU was manhandled by ND’s DL last week allowing 4 sacks while rushing for just 50 yards (2.0) in a 20-3 loss which snapped their 15 game home win streak. It was their worst showing on offense at home since losing to CMU 20-3 in ‘91. However, their opponent EM is 0-8 in series and in the L/5 games has been outscored 50-9, outgained 512-223 and outFD’d 24-10. EM HC English had his team bigger and stronger last year vs the Big Ten trailing Michigan 14-3 at halftime and Penn St 17-0 but this year is 0-3 and last week was pummeled by Purdue 54-16 getting outgained 576-313. EM does have a bye on deck but MSU has a huge edge on D (#4-119) and will want to atone for last week’s miserable performance.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST 38 EASTERN MICHIGAN 7
#23 MISSISSIPPI ST VS SOUTH ALABAMA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SOUTH ALABAMA 70 / 123
126 / 224
1 / 10
4.7
MISSISSIPPI ST
171 / 156
274 / 200
38 / 30
0.6
••••
FIRST MEETING
No doubt USA HC Jones (Bama alumni) will be excited to face an SEC team. USA was only outgained 384-314 in last week’s 31-7 loss to the Wolf Pack but 112 yards came in the 4Q when they scored a td with 5:20 left. Despite being outFD’d (30-17) and outgained (572-457) MSU won at Troy 30-24. MSU led 23-7 at the half as Troy TO’s set up all 3 of MSU’s 1H td’s and they also missed a 26 yd FG. MSU has a bye on deck so Mullen will let the young offense go (59 vs Memphis and 55 vs UTM last year). Last week's results were closer than expected so look for them to come out and dominate this inferior foe.
PHIL’S FORECAST:  MISSISSIPPI ST 42 SOUTH ALABAMA 3
#24 BOISE ST VS BYU
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BYU 128 / 139
224 / 61
22 / 6
2.8
BOISE ST
126 / 116
241 / 145
26/ 7
2.5
The situation does clearly favor BSU as they are off a bye and a home game vs Miami, OH (won 39-12) while BYU just played rival Utah and lost a heartbreaker 24-21. In the most unique finish of the wk BYU lost to their Holy War rivals in their last scheduled meeting, 24-21. Trailing 24-7 BYU was driving to tie the gm up when it appeared their last pass fell incomplete. After officials put :01 back on the clock and cleared the field of fans, BYU had a 51 yd FG blocked but the Utes were penalized 15 yards when the crowd rushed the field too early. On an un-timed down BYU’s 36 yd FG attempt clanked off the left upright finally giving the Utes the win. The Broncos are 83-3 at home S/'98 incl a win over BYU 28-27 in 2004. While BYU has the experience edge, I have to wonder how much they have left in the tank following that upset loss last week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BOISE St 27 BYU 21
#25 NEBRASKA VS IDAHO ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IDAHO ST -30 / 31
178 / 179
1 / 7
-
-
NEBRASKA
296 / 385
218 / 184
41 / 73
-
-
FIRST MEETING
This is the 5th straight season that Idaho St has played 2 FBS foes in the same season. Earlier this year they lost to Air Force 49-21 which was their 17th consec loss to a FBS foe. On the positive side, they did gain 431 yards and feature a pass-happy offense that could score here. The Bengals have suffered 8 straight losing seasons as they went 2-9 LY incl losses to Wash St (64-21) and BYU (56-3). Nebraska's 42-13 win over Arkansas St last week made more news off-the-field as HC Pelini was rushed to the hospital and missed half of the game for the flu but will be back here. The Huskers did have a 527-286 yd edge and will also welcome back RB Burkhead who has missed the last 2 gms. My computer calls for a dominating 514-148 yd edge and a 41-1 score. The Huskers do have a big home game vs Wisconsin next week with revenge on their minds so I think they could give up a late td with the backups in.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEBRASKA 42 IDAHO ST 7
Upsets of the Week:
New Mexico over New Mexico St
San Jose St over San Diego St