Daily Blog • Sunday, September 23rd

 

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS:
ST LOUIS AT CHICAGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS 84
182
16
4.8
#9
CHICAGO 153
232
24
4.0
#5
The Bears are still stinging from being held to 168 yds (14 yds per drive) by GB LW. CHI’s defense takes a big step down in terms of passing talent here. STL tallied a win in their home opener vs WAS despite benching RB Jackson mid-2Q as their defense held WAS (with a penalty assist) on their final drive. They played well vs DET with a rusty Stafford (3 int with 2 IR td) who was looking ahead to SF. Look for Cutler to rebound after a horrific game at GB where he threw 4 int’s and was pounded with 7 sks and 12 qbh. OC Tice will streamline the offense to cover for the loss of RB Forte (ankle sprain) with the short passing attack and lots of RB Bush 54 yds (3.9) LW.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CHICAGO 24 ST LOUIS 13

TAMPA BAY AT DALLAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TAMPA BAY 89
153
21
1.8
#16
DALLAS 109
381
25
2.0
#26
The Cowboys tallied an easy 31-15 win in week 15 LY vs a Bucs team that had given up on their HC. DAL had a 28-7 FD and 399-190 yd edge. This is DAL’s home opener. TB has already shown a new “hard nose” attitude under HC Schiano as they were dead last in rush D in 2011 but held CAR (#3 rush off ‘11) to 10 rush yds (0.8). However, their pass defense was shredded by the Giants as Manning tallied 295 yds passing in the 2H vs Freeman’s 243 for the game. DAL followed up its win over NYG by getting stuffed at SEA as RB Murray was held to 44 yds (3.7) and none of the passing targets could handle SEA’s physical DB’s. Look for an angry DAL team to exploit TB’s secondary with a vengeance and for DC Ryan to go after TB’s OL.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DALLAS 30 TAMPA BAY 20

SAN FRANCISCO AT MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN FRANCISCO 138
183
25
0.0
#1
MINNESOTA 96
229
14
3.5
#3
The 49ers are off LW’s SNF “handshake rematch” vs the Lions but there was no midfield rematch after the end of that gm as SF ran its win streak over Detroit to 9. Smith threw for 226 yards and enters this gm with a franchise rec’d 216 straight passes without an int. The matchups clearly favor the 49ers as their league leading 2011 rush D (77 ypg, 3.5 ypc) started this season just like it left off (45, 3.2 vs GB) and that spells trouble for the Peterson dependant MIN off. SF’s D got 4 sacks on the road at GB against a veteran QB and by shutting down the rush attack they will have a field day against a pressured Ponder. On offense the 49ers are not flashy but after leading the NFL with +28 TO’s and finishing 2nd with 13.1 yds/pt they were TO free at GB and Smith completed 77% of his passes while the rush attack avg’d 5.8 ypc. The Vikings fell victim to Luck’s first ever NFL win LW and will fall at home this week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM FRANCISCO 24 MINNESOTA 10

DETROIT AT TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DETROIT 116
255
32
0.0
#11
TENNESSEE 86
256
21
0.8
#7
Situational edge to TEN as both teams are off West Coast road trips, but DET travels for a second straight after playing on SNF. LY after playing the physical 49ers the Lions hosted ATL and were held to a season low 263 yds. This is Schwartz’s 1st game vs TEN after having been their DC from 2001-’08. The Titans came into the season energized with a new QB off a 9-7 season but now at 0-2 and with a trip to HOU on deck the pressure is mounting. After facing Brady and Rivers in B2B weeks (74% comp 5-1 ratio) they now face Stafford and Megatron. On offense the inexperienced Locker faced my #16 & #23 DL the first 2 games. This week he will face my #2 ranked unit and see the 9-wide D for the first time with their below avg OL and the speedy Lions can go 8 deep on the DL which keeps them fresh vs the mobile QB.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DETROIT 30 TENNESSEE 23

CINCINNATI AT WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CINCINNATI 62
265
29
3.8
#18
WASHINGTON 117
312
31
0.3
#13
WAS has the situational edge with a huge home crowd behind RG3 and returning home at 1-1. Griffin and his elite athleticism has had the edge vs NO and STL who are installing new defensive systems TY. CIN has run the same system since 2008 under DC Zimmer but there are concerns. The 308 pass yds and 72% comp are explainable on the road vs BAL but allowing CLE’s QB Weeden to throw for 322 yds (70%, 2-0) with a 114.9 QBR the week after putting up a 5.1 QBR (118, 34%, 0-4) need some explaining. CIN’s biggest weakness is their depleted OL (C/RG) and their secondary is still showing 2011’s problems allowing 8.9 ypa (71%) with a 4-0 ratio. Look for WAS to rebound and start to establish a home field edge at FedEx Field.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 28 CINCINNATI 21

NY JETS AT MIAMI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY JETS 58
259
23
0.8
#14
MIAMI 154
193
22
4.0
#17
LY the Jets beat MIA 24-6 ending a 3 gm losing streak thanks to Revis returning an int 100 yds for a td to steal the gm’s momentum. MIA won the rematch 19-17 eliminating the Jets from the playoffs. MIA won its first home opener s/’05 35-13 as they outran the Raiders 259-23 incl 172 yd & 2 td for Bush. The Dolphins trailed 10-7 at the half but dominated the 2H driving 44/4pl, 80/3pl, 57/8pl and 75/8pl for td’s. After tossing 3 int in the opener Tannehill hit 18-30-200-1-0 and scored his first 2 career td’s. The Jets led the Steelers 10-6 late 2Q when PIT drove 80/11pl for a td with 1:03 1H to take the lead. After the terrific opener Sanchez struggled vs the Steel Curtain hitting for 138 yds (37%) with 1 td though he was without his #2 receiving option in TE Keller. CB Revis is expected to return here vs MIA’s bottom tier WR’s. While this is a 2nd straight road gm vs NY vs MIA’s 2nd straight at home the Jets need every win with home games vs SF and HOU on deck.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 21 MIAMI 10

KANSAS CITY AT NEW ORLEANS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS CITY 182
254
27
2.4
#32
NEW ORLEANS 115
310
33
2.3
#15
This can be a flat spot for the Saints after facing CAR but now at 0-2 for only the 3rd time since 1997 that will change. KC also joins the 0-2 club and with this trip followed by SD and BAL the hopes of a new season may dissipate quickly. LW I wrote that the Saints offense will definitely not live up to the Payton run version and while Brees is still slinging it around at 332 ypg he’s only comp 54% (71% LY) with a 4-4 ratio (46-14 LY) with most of his production in the 4Q (29 of 59 pts) as they trailed 30-17 and 28-13 into the final stanza. I’ll call for NO to atone for their season opening losses by a pair of FG’s as KC makes this a tougher than expected event.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 KANSAS CITY 23

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUFFALO 167
216
28
3.0
#21
CLEVELAND 125
253
25
2.0
#10
This is the 5th meeting in 6 years due to both teams being bottom feeders in the AFC. BUF beat CLE 13-6 in the last meeting in 2010. The Bills are off a misleading final as they were outgained 422-379 and outFD’d 25-15 but were +3 in TO’s in the 35-17 win vs KC. The Bills D allowed 150 yds and 6.3 ypc rushing LW and while the Chiefs rush attack rates higher than CLE’s, a healthy Richardson (109, 5.7) showed how improved the offense can be when the D can’t completely focus on Weeden. CLE does have BAL on deck Thursday but with this young offense that has 4 rookies which have already made starts and 2 OL with only 1 year of exp every game will have their complete attention especially their first win. The Bills are 2-15 on the road in the last 2+ years allowing 32 ppg and drop another here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEVELAND 21 BUFFALO 20

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JACKSONVILLE 93
186
20
1.5
#20
INDIANAPOLIS 92
235
23
1.2
#19

JAX won both matchups LY with an 18-8 avg score. MJD has had 7 100 yd gms vs IND in his career and is avg a remarkable 101 (5.3) vs them. Even with IND’s D ranking among the league’s worst vs the rush, it will be tough to match those numbers TW as JAX’s beaten up OL has seen 4 ply’rs already on IR and LW they turned to vet Herb Taylor who hadn’t played in a gm s/’08 to start at LG. Gabbert finished 7 of 19 for 53 yards - his fewest pass yds as a st’r and his status is doubtful (hamstring/toe). Add it all up and the Jags had a franchise-low 117 yds in the 27-7 loss to HOU. Luck’s home debut was a success as the rookie threw 2 td’s, took advantage of several key MIN pen & marched the off 45 yds in :23 to set up a 53 yard field goal with :08 left, which gave IND a 23-20 win. He also played the entire 2H without 3 st’rs on the OL. Look for Luck to continue his winning ways at home while Henne will be making his 1st start inside a rejuvenated dome crowd.

PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 20 JACKSONVILLE 17

PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PHILADELPHIA 107
279
21
2.0
#28
ARIZONA 91
174
20
2.5
#22
The Cardinals pulled off one of the bigger upsets in 2011 with a 21-17 win over PHI on the road. PHI blew their 5th 4Q lead as ARZ logged a 23-15 FD and 370-289 yd edge behind #2 QB Skelton who had 315 yds (53%, 3-2). PHI was without WR Jackson, FS Allen and LG Mathis with Vick hitting for 128 yds (47% 0-2). LW the Eagles had a 486-325 yd edge in the 24-23 win over Baltimore but did have 4 TO’s. After his 4 int in the win over CLE, Vick threw for 371 yds (72%) and ran for the GW td w/1:55 left as the Eagles moved to 2-0 for the first time s/’04 (SB appearance). Despite being outgained 387-245 and having 2 costly fmbl’s, the Cards pulled off the biggest shocker of the yr so far upsetting the Pats 20-18. ARZ won behind QB Kolb who was efficient but not spectacular with 140 yds (56%) and NE did miss a 42 yd FG on final play. No question PHI has the talent edge but they took a beating vs BAL with injuries and the Eagles’ 9 TO’s in the first 2 gms are bothersome.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 27 ARIZONA 20

ATLANTA AT SAN DIEGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATLANTA 97
270
24
0.0
#8
SAN DIEGO 96
265
27
1.3
#2
ATL is in a poor situation off LW’s MNF game vs the no-huddle offense vs DEN and have a home game vs CAR on deck. The Falcons also lost their top CB Grimes (Achilles) for the yr in the opener and had to face DEN’s dangerous pitch-catch combo of Manning and Thomas in their first gm without him but still were able to pick off Manning 3x in the 1Q and held on for the win. Under Smith ATL is 5-0 on the West Coast including an upset of the Chargers 22-16 in their last visit here in ’08. SD is 2-0 for the first time s/’06 after LW’s win over TEN. The Chargers dominated with 27-9 FD and 416-212 yd edges as Rivers looked to be in midseason form while the D held TEN’s Locker in check. I’ll call for SD to win by a TD as all week long SD is playing the dis-respect card.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 24 ATLANTA 17

HOUSTON AT DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON 146
203
26
1.5
#19
DENVER 86
213
23
0.3
#29
Last time these 2 met was at the end of 2010 as HOU got Tebowed blowing a 23-10 4Q lead. Since that game the Texans have gone 13-6 in the regular season. HOU of course is very familiar with Manning facing him twice annually until 2011 but Peyton will be seeing this new DC Phillips led HOU unit for the first time as in 2010 Wade was the HC/DC at DAL and the Cowboys held Manning to a season low 75.4 QBR with 4 of his 14 int’s on the season coming in the loss. HOU is off last week’s 27-7 win over JAX. The Texans improved to 2-0 for the 3rd consecutive season by gaining 242 yds in the 1H while building a 17-0 lead and also held JAX to a franchise-low 117 yds. DEN is off a MNF road gm loss at ATL and will be playing their 3rd straight playoff team from LY. Manning looked like his former self in the season opening win over PIT throwing for 252 yds and 2 td’s but then threw 3 int's in the 1Q last week. I’ll call for the overall better team to get another road win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 27 DENVER 24

PITTSBURGH AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PITTSBURGH 112
248
27
0.0
#25
OAKLAND 88
255
19
3.0
#12
The Black & Gold travel to face the Silver & Black. This was clearly the rivalry of the 70’s with 5 straight playoff meetings incl 3 straight AFC Championships. Schedule makers did the Raiders no favors opening with a MNF div game, traveling across country to humid south Florida while also having a trip to Mile High on deck. PIT is traveling to face their 2nd AFC West foe in 3 weeks but they also have a bye on deck. OAK “improved” rush attack has totaled 68 yds (2.0) to start the season and now faces LY’s #1 D that is allowing 92 ypg (3.8) and flexed its muscle by harassing Sanchez relentlessly LW. OAK’s WR unit is very beat up which allowed MIA to stack the line LW and shut them down. PIT won’t be intimidated by Palmer who they faced with CIN and PIT has a strong WR tandem (Wallace/Brown 264 yd total 13.2) to exploit OAK’s thin secondary.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 27 OAKLAND 20

NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ENGLAND 76
293
24
1.3
#24
BALTIMORE 109
290
27
0.0
#4

Last year's #1 and #2 seeds from the NFC met last Thursday and tonight LY’s top 2 AFC seeds face off. The difference is that these 2 met earlier this year in LY’s conf finals as the Ravens Billy Cutliff shanked a 32 yd FG with :11 left that allowed NE to go to the SB while BAL had yet another disappointing playoff loss. LW both tms had last second losses but while the Ravens lost on the road to one of the best teams in the NFL, NE inexplicably lost at home to the Cardinals as a two touchdown favorite. Baltimore is one of the league's better home teams and will be playing with revenge but nobody is better than Bellichick/Brady in rebounding off a loss.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 27 BALTIMORE 24