Daily Blog • Sunday, September 30th

 

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS:
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ENGLAND 54
288
27
0.0
#23
BUFFALO 140
260
28
2.5
#25

NE is off last week’s last second loss to BAL. In last year’s first game the Bills snapped a 15 game losing streak to the Patriots with Fitzpatrick passing for 369 yards (59%) with a 2-2 ratio. NE brought the hammer in the rematch with a 49-21 win in the season finale vs an injury depleted Bills team that was held to 122 yards in the 2H with 4 TO’s. BUF has snared a pair of wins vs a KC team with the #21 rush defense (4.7) along with a pass defense allowing an 8-1 ratio as well as a CLE team laden with rookies. They are expected to miss both RB’s Spiller (102 ypg, 9.3) and Jackson who is the offensive leader. While this is NE’s third road game in 4 weeks with DEN/Peyton on deck, I’ll go with the Patriots in a higher scoring game.       

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 34 BUFFALO 16

MINNESOTA AT DETROIT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MINNESOTA 101
239
28
0.5
#9
DETROIT 93
325
32
2.0
#27

Stafford has avg’d 245 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio in his 4 starts vs MIN (no 2010) and gets the #10 pass defense with a 5-1 ratio so far this year facing inexperienced QB’s or run oriented offenses. MIN has a bit of momentum after upsetting SF who was in a flat spot last week with 3 TO’s and a blocked FG. Admittedly DET has yet to defeat an NFC playoff team (0-6 last two years) but in last week’s OT shootout to TEN they logged 15 FD’s and a 146 yard edge rallying from 14 down with less than 2:00 left. DET has several matchup edges vs an OL with a rookie LT, a still not 100% Peterson, and their receiving unit vs a very young secondary and gets the home win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DETROIT 31 MINNESOTA 17

CAROLINA AT ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAROLINA 80
188
9
3.5
#30
ATLANTA 156
284
31
1.0
#7

The Falcons are 6-1 vs CAR with a 33-18 avg score in the victories. Last year they held Newton to 257 ypg (54%) with a 2-5 ratio in their 2 games with just 86 yards rushing. While he racks up a lot of stats, the Panthers are 1-11 when Newton has 30 or more pass attempts. This takes them out of their run-first mentality as seen this year with TB/NYG holding him to a 1-5 ratio, 5 sacks and 70 yards rushing total. The Panthers come in having been stung by the Giants in their 1st primetime home game since Nov 2009. Ryan has taken to the new pass first offense like a duck to water avg 264 ypg (72%) with an 8-1 ratio and he now gets CAR’s #24 defense. ATL has the edges at the skill positions, in defensive depth, on special teams and is at home after having beaten Manning/Rivers and rolls here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 35 CAROLINA 20

SAN FRANCISCO AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN FRANCISCO 137
163
20
0.8
#1
NY JETS 102
200
23
2.5
#8
This is SF’s second straight road game and third in four weeks and they won their first 3 games on the East Coast last year before losing to BAL on a short week after having faced ARZ at home. Last week the 49ers found themselves down 17-3 at halftime on the road to MIN as Gore was held to just 63 yards and Smith saw his franchise-record 249 passes without an interception come to an end. After cutting the lead to 17-13 in the 3Q, their L/5 possessions ended in 2 fmbls, an int and 2 punts. The NYJ had better luck in a sluggish performance on the road as despite a mediocre outing by QB Sanchez (47%, missed several open receivers), they were able to erase an early 10-0 deficit to beat MIA 23-20. The Jets were aided by 2 missed MIA FG’s and also HC Philbin called an unfortunate timeout right before the Jets had a FG blocked in OT. Ryan gets his team motivated well as an underdog at home and twice they’ve pulled upsets over NE in the two prior instances in that role (by 11 ppg). Look for them to make it 3 for 3 here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 21 SAN FRANCISCO 20

SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN DIEGO 87
162
24
1.0
#2
KANSAS CITY 168
241
20
3.2
#32
The Chargers have used their reputation as being slow starters to their advantage considering themselves the underdog in every game. After taking down OAK and TEN they were unable to deal with the Falcons up-tempo offense and Rivers was harassed all day. The Chargers have this one circled as they have outgained the Chiefs the last two times here by 149 ypg but have been upset with each being a Monday Night event. Last year when HC Crennel took over the team responded with 4 quick wins but this year after adjusting the schemes the offense has not been the same. KC’s first 3 drives in the opener totaled 212 yards and 17 points but after the Falcons made adjustments they were held to 181 yards and 7 points the rest of the way and the following week they trailed BUF 35-3 into the 4Q before two 4Q td’s with a pair of 80+ yd garbage time drives. KC is off a big win vs NO where they tallied over 500 yards vs a still adjusting defense but now they face a SD team off a tough home loss looking to knock down a division rival.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 20 KANSAS CITY 17

TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 40
191
14
3.3
#5
HOUSTON 201
309
37
0.0
#19
The schedule makers did Jake Locker no favors for his opening month putting him up against a pair of playoff teams (NE, DET), a trip to SD and now he has to travel to face a division foe who will be looking to avenge last year’s season finale loss despite having rested starters. After 2 weeks of scoring 11.5 ppg, TEN was able to post 44 in an OT win over DET. Locker had 378 yards (69%) with 2 td’s as TEN became the 1st team with 5 td’s of 60 yards or more in a game. TEN now goes from facing a team still trying to cobble together its secondary to Houston’s that has a 22-23 ratio under Phillips with 59 sacks as well. In Locker’s first road start he threw for only 50% and totaled 9 FD’s vs SD and must now face a D that allowed only 279 ypg and 46% comp in last year’s first six games when playing their starters. HOU isn’t going to take TEN lightly after allowing a 20 point lead to DEN almost slip away to a better QB last week and I’ll go with the Texans here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 30 TENNESSEE 13

SEATTLE AT ST LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEATTLE 157
150
21
1.0
#3
ST LOUIS 78
203
16
1.8
#10

SEA is nearly in an early season ‘must win’ spot as a loss here would drop them to 0-2 in the division. This is a tough spot for them as they were clearly up for the DAL game (thanks to 10 special teams points) and now are off only their second MNF home game since 2007 in the well-publicized 14-12 win over GB on the last second Hail Mary td pass at least according to the replacement officials. STL is off a 17 point loss to CHI giving them just 206 ypg and 14.5 ppg in their 2 road losses. They return home where the win vs WAS produced 452 yards which is the best yardage the Rams have totaled since beating WAS 37-31 in wk 16 of 2006 (579 yards). This is QB Wilson’s 1st experience on a short week after facing GB and Fisher will have his team primed for an upset here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ST LOUIS 20 SEATTLE 17

MIAMI AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 116
144
10
2.3
#12
ARIZONA 65
274
22
0.2
#11
Not many teams can score 20 points each of their first 2 games and go 2-0 but that’s what the Cards accomplished vs a SEA rookie making his first start and a NE team that admitted played a vanilla game plan trying to surprise their upcoming opponent. The one constant to a D that allowed 17 ppg their first 2 was a new blitz package that now has 12 sacks after 3 games on 117 pass att’s. LW they shutdown the Eagles offense holding them to under 35 yds on 8 of 11 drives. MIA now brings another rookie QB in Tannehill and while he’s earned 205 ypg (53%) with a 1-4 ratio on the year, he was 9-19 (47%) for 85 yds in the 1H vs OAK and padded the stats in the 2H (9-11, 82%) vs a worn out OAK team off a Monday night game playing in humidity. He now has to travel cross-country and could be without MIA’s best skill player in RB Bush (302 yds, 6.0). Kolb almost doubled Vick’s QBR with 222 yds (71%) with 2 td’s as ARZ is finally playing to his strengths. The Cardinals have the superior talent and get the win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 21 MIAMI 14

OAKLAND AT DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAKLAND 85
238
25
2.0
#14
DENVER 145
341
34
0.0
#21
While you spent the entire offseason thinking DEN made only one improvement on the year by signing Manning, the addition of former HC Jack Del Rio to DC has guided a unit that has allowed only 332 ypg vs 3 teams which made the playoffs last year. The stat sheet may only show Manning avg 275 pg (60%, 5-3) but after facing last year’s #1, #18 and #4 defense, the Raiders secondary will look like a scrimmage opponent as it consists of all 5 CB’s that are new to the team this year. OAK is off a huge upset win for HC Allen’s (who was DEN’s DC last year) first victory. DEN just faced the Texans offense that OAK is trying to install and has big edges at WR, DB and coaching.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 27 OAKLAND 17

CINCINNATI AT JACKSONVILLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CINCINNATI 90
273
26
1.0
#13
JACKSONVILLE 150
196
21
0.7
#17
As I wrote for the NFL opening week, it would take an adjustment period for MJD to get into game shape. He’s accomplished that quicker than most as evidenced last week at IND (177, 6.3). While Gabbert has one of the lowest QBR’s among the league’s starters, he’s done what’s been needed staying interception free (3-0 ratio). After playing a pair of road games and a home game vs an elite D without a 100% star RB they now get to play together which will open up the play action passing game. CIN’s #29 D has been a sieve allowing 417 ypg and that includes having faced 2 rookie QB’s. To compound the Bengals defensive woes is that they are also allowing 155 ypg (5.8) rushing with very little time to make adjustments traveling for a 2nd straight week and 3rd time in 4. I’ll take the home team off a confidence boosting win vs a road team that has taken advantage of a young CLE team and a WAS defense without its best run stuffer and pass rusher.
PHIL’S FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 21 CINCINNATI 20

NEW ORLEANS AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ORLEANS 103
219
22
3.5
#15
GREEN BAY 168
265
37
0.0
#20

The 2009 Super Bowl winner travels to face the 2010 winner. They also opened up the season last year as GB prevailed 42-34, holding NO out of the EZ from the 1 yard line on the game’s final play. The Saints are still struggling to adjust without Payton on off and especially to new DC Spagnuolo. They’re allowing a staggering 479 ypg and last week’s loss to KC was a microcosm of their problems as they led 24-6 getting outscored 21-0 the rest of the way getting outgained 333-70 in the 2H and OT. The Packers D was beleaguered in the offseason for their #32 finish as they played less aggressive schemes (avg’d 1.7 sk/gm) and DC Capers has ramped up the pressure (11 sks first 2 games) reminding me of their 2010 D that was #2 in sks and #5 in overall D. NO is 1-7 the last 3 years when taking 3 or more sacks and now stands at 0-3 and the teams that have beaten them are 0-6 against everyone else. This won’t be anywhere near as tough a contest as last year’s season opener.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 30 NEW ORLEANS 16

WASHINGTON AT TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 115
238
26
2.0
#18
TAMPA BAY 118
278
30
1.3
#22
The Skins totaled an outstanding 31 FD’s last week but RG3 will need some help from a D that lost another 2 starters prior to last week’s game. The Skins have allowed 465 ypg in their 2 losses and what’s more disturbing is that STL has avg’d 206 ypg their other 2 games while CIN has avg’d 349 ypg. The Bucs have yet to win an “In the Stats” battle getting outgained by an avg of 401-244 and last week their only td came on 9 yds of offense and 20 yds of pen’s after an int. I’ll call for the home team by 1 here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 24 WASHINGTON 23

NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY GIANTS 84
246
27
1.5
#28
PHILADELPHIA 115
291
23
3.3
#29

This is now the 4th straight season that this matchup has been on Sunday Night TV but the first in which Philly is the host. NY has the situation edge off a Thursday Night blowout while the Eagles had to travel to the west coast in a disappointing loss to Arizona which dropped them to 2-1 on the yr as TO's continue to be the problem as they have 13 now. In a true toss-up game, I will go with the home team by one and pray that the Eagles can limit their mistakes.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 24 NY GIANTS 23


BYES: INDIANAPOLIS, PITTSBURGH