Daily Blog •April 29, 2013

A couple of months ago in a series of blogs that dived into my complex formula in ranking the toughest conferences, I projected the number of draft picks each conference would have in the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft (prior to the combine). Naturally the 2013 Draft wrapped up this past weekend so I thought it would be a great time to see how my projections came out.

Naturally the more players drafted equals the better overall talent in the conference and that sometimes equals a better quality of play.  For example, the ACC, which routinely performs below average in bowl games, usually has more players drafted than many conferences and gets a boost there.

After going thru my NFL Draft Preview,  I thought the SEC could be in for a banner draft and my hypothesis would come to be true as the SEC set a record for number of draft picks in a draft with 63 (I projected a record 70). This broke the Pac-12’s record of 55 that was set all the way back in 1983 with 55. Keep in mind, the SEC now has 14 teams and the Pac-12 only had 10 at that point.

It was the 7th straight draft the SEC has led all conferences in players selected and in fact the SEC had four more defensive players drafted than any conference had total players drafted. The combination of LSU, Alabama, Florida and Georgia had more players drafted (34) than any other conference! Finally, the SEC had 32 more players drafted than the second-ranked conference (ACC). That is the biggest disparity in picks between the top two conferences in any draft!

Florida St (my pick to win the national title) did have the most picks (11), which was the most in school history and Rutgers, who had 7 picks in the draft actually had more than any team in their future conference (Big 10) had.
Here are the complete results of my February 12 projection, while comparing to what happened 10 weeks later.

February 12 Projection NFL Draft April 25-27  
Rank
Conf # of Players
Rank
Conf # of Players Diff
1
SEC 70
1
SEC 63 -7
2
ACC 33
2
ACC 32 -1
3
Pac-12 29
3
Pac-12 28 -1
4
Big 10 27
4
Big 10 22 -5
5
Big 12 20
4
Big 12 22 2
6
Big East 17
6
Big East 19 2
7
Mountain West 10
10
Mountain West 6 -4
8
Independent 8
8
Independent 7 -1
9
WAC 7
10
WAC 6 -1
9
CUSA 7
7
CUSA 8 1
11
MAC 4
8
MAC 7 3
12
Sun Belt 2
12
Sun Belt 4 2
FCS 20
FCS 30 10
  254
  254  

While I was 7 off with the SEC, I did call for them to break the all-time record and they did. I was only off 1 pick of both the ACC and Pac-12, which I correctly called to finish #2 and #3 respectively while clearly the Big 10 disappointed with just 22 picks. Overall, of the 12 conferences (counting Independents), I was only off one or two total picks for each conference in 7 of the 12!