Daily Blog •February 18, 2013

I am always looking for different ways in how to analyze a team for the upcoming season and if you read my magazine you know I use many past season statistics and performances in order to predict the future.

In today’s blog, I wanted to find out how teams did against their schedules from this past year with regards to quality of wins. What I did in this particular formula was to take the amount of wins each team had from 2012 and then gave them the total number of wins that their opponent had for the season. For example, Notre Dame beat Stanford this past year and the Cardinal won 12 games so the Irish would get all 12 of those wins. The Irish also beat Oklahoma, which won 10 games and Michigan which won 8 games. Those three wins would give them a total of 29 combined wins and when you add in Notre Dame’s 9 other teams’ wins that they beat this past season you get a total of 86 combined wins, which was actually good enough for best in the country along with Stanford whose 12 wins this past year also came over opponents with a combined 86 wins.

First a quick note with my formula: Any wins over FCS teams do not count into my formula. Only wins over FBS teams count. Therefore a team a team like Kansas, which had their only win this entire season come over an FCS opponent would not count as a total of 0 and not 9 which their FCS opponent South Dakota St won.

Naturally you do not receive any wins for a team you lost to so Notre Dame which lost only one game this past year to Alabama does not get credit for the Tide’s 13 wins.

Here are the results from my formula and there are not many surprises as it is a “whose who” of the top teams in college football from a year ago.

Total Combined Wins over Teams Beaten

Rk
Team
Total
Wins
Combined
Foe Wins
1 Notre Dame 12 86
1 Stanford 12 86
3 Alabama 13 84
4 Florida 11 82
5 Oregon 12 76
6 Ohio St 12 73
7 South Carolina 11 67
7 Kansas St 11 67
9 Texas A&M 11 66
9 Georgia 12 66
11 Florida St 12 64
12 Nebraska 10 61
13 Tulsa 11 60
13 San Jose St 11 60
13 Clemson 11 60
16 Oklahoma 10 57
17 LSU 10 56
17 Louisville 11 56
19 Texas 9 55
19 Arkansas St 10 55
21 Utah St 11 54
21 UCLA 9 54
23 Baylor 8 53
24 Oregon St 9 52
24 Kent St 11 52
24 Boise St 11 52
27 Northern Illinois 12 51
28 Northwestern 10 50
29 Penn St 8 46
30 Michigan St 7 45
31 Oklahoma St 8 44
31 Ball St 9 44
31 Arizona 8 44
34 UCF 10 43
34 Cincinnati 10 43
36 Wisconsin 8 42
36 ULM 9 42
36 Michigan 8 42
39 Syracuse 8 41
40 Toledo 9 40
41 Washington 7 39
41 San Diego St 9 39
41 Louisiana 9 39
44 Rutgers 9 38
44 North Carolina 8 38
44 Fresno St 9 38
47 Virginia Tech 7 36
47 TCU 7 36
49 Vanderbilt 9 35
49 USC 7 35
49 Texas Tech 8 35
49 Middle Tennessee 8 35
49 BYU 8 35
54 Navy 8 34
54 Louisiana Tech 9 34
56 West Virginia 7 33
57 SMU 7 32
57 Miami, FL 7 32
59 Ohio 9 31
59 Iowa St 6 31
59 Georgia Tech 7 31
62 NC State 7 30
62 Arizona St 8 30
64 Mississippi St 8 29
65 Rice 7 27
65 Pittsburgh 6 27
67 Mississippi 7 26
67 Connecticut 5 26
69 Missouri 5 25
69 Iowa 4 25
71 WKU 7 24
71 Duke 6 24
73 Virginia 4 22
73 Minnesota 6 22
73 East Carolina 8 22
73 Bowling Green 8 22
73 Air Force 6 22
78 Troy 5 20
78 Nevada 7 20
80 Houston 5 19
80 Central Michigan 7 19
82 Purdue 6 17
83 Wake Forest 5 16
83 Marshall 5 16
83 Arkansas 4 16
86 Utah 5 15
86 Tennessee 5 15
88 North Texas 4 14
89 Western Michigan 4 13
89 Maryland 4 13
91 USF 3 12
91 Memphis 4 12
91 FAU 3 12
91 California 3 12
95 Wyoming 4 11
95 Miami, OH 4 11
95 Kentucky 2 11
98 UNLV 2 10
98 Tulane 2 10
98 Temple 4 10
98 Colorado St 4 10
98 Auburn 3 10
103 Wash St 3 9
103 Buffalo 4 9
105 UTSA 8 8
105 New Mexico 4 8
105 Army 2 8
108 Texas St 4 7
108 Indiana 4 7
110 FIU 3 6
110 Eastern Michigan 2 6
112 UAB 3 5
113 Illinois 2 4
113 Hawaii 3 4
113 Boston College 2 4
116 UTEP 3 3
116 South Alabama 2 3
116 Colorado 1 3
119 Massachusetts 1 1
119 Idaho 1 1
121 Southern Miss 0 0
121 New Mexico St 1 0
121 Kansas 1 0
121 Akron 1 0

The next thing I did was to take an average number of wins each opponent had for a team that it had beaten. For example, UNLV won two games a year ago. One of the wins was over a 6-win Air Force team and the other came over New Mexico, which won 4 games. This gave them a total of 10 wins and when u divide it by two you naturally get a win average of 5.

By using this method you can see which teams feasted upon weaker opponents and which teams had some quality wins.

Here are the results.

Average # of Wins for Foes Beaten

Rk Team Total
Wins
Comb
Foe Wins
Foe
Win Avg
1 Florida 11 82 7.45
2 Stanford 12 86 7.17
2 Notre Dame 12 86 7.17
4 Baylor 8 53 6.63
5 Alabama 13 84 6.46
6 Michigan St 7 45 6.43
7 Oregon 12 76 6.33
8 Iowa 4 25 6.25
9 Texas 9 55 6.11
10 Nebraska 10 61 6.10
11 South Carolina 11 67 6.09
11 Kansas St 11 67 6.09
13 Ohio St 12 73 6.08
14 Texas A&M 11 66 6.00
14 UCLA 9 54 6.00
16 Oregon St 9 52 5.78
17 Penn St 8 46 5.75
18 Oklahoma 10 57 5.70
19 LSU 10 56 5.60
20 Washington 7 39 5.57
21 Georgia 12 66 5.50
21 Arkansas St 10 55 5.50
21 Oklahoma St 8 44 5.50
21 Arizona 8 44 5.50
21 Virginia 4 22 5.50
21 Kentucky 2 11 5.50
27 Tulsa 11 60 5.45
27 San Jose St 11 60 5.45
27 Clemson 11 60 5.45
30 Florida St 12 64 5.33
31 Wisconsin 8 42 5.25
31 Michigan 8 42 5.25
33 Connecticut 5 26 5.20
34 Iowa St 6 31 5.17
35 Virginia Tech 7 36 5.14
35 TCU 7 36 5.14
37 Syracuse 8 41 5.13
38 Louisville 11 56 5.09
39 Northwestern 10 50 5.00
39 USC 7 35 5.00
39 Missouri 5 25 5.00
39 UNLV 2 10 5.00
39 Tulane 2 10 5.00
44 Utah St 11 54 4.91
45 Ball St 9 44 4.89
46 North Carolina 8 38 4.75
47 Kent St 11 52 4.73
47 Boise St 11 52 4.73
49 West Virginia 7 33 4.71
50 ULM 9 42 4.67
51 SMU 7 32 4.57
51 Miami, FL 7 32 4.57
53 Pittsburgh 6 27 4.50
54 Toledo 9 40 4.44
55 Georgia Tech 7 31 4.43
56 Texas Tech 8 35 4.38
56 Middle Tennessee 8 35 4.38
56 BYU 8 35 4.38
59 San Diego St 9 39 4.33
59 Louisiana 9 39 4.33
61 UCF 10 43 4.30
61 Cincinnati 10 43 4.30
63 NC State 7 30 4.29
64 Northern Illinois 12 51 4.25
64 Navy 8 34 4.25
66 Rutgers 9 38 4.22
66 Fresno St 9 38 4.22
68 Duke 6 24 4.00
68 Troy 5 20 4.00
68 Arkansas 4 16 4.00
68 USF 3 12 4.00
68 FAU 3 12 4.00
68 California 3 12 4.00
68 Army 2 8 4.00
75 Vanderbilt 9 35 3.89
76 Rice 7 27 3.86
77 Houston 5 19 3.80
78 Louisiana Tech 9 34 3.78
79 Arizona St 8 30 3.75
80 Mississippi 7 26 3.71
81 Minnesota 6 22 3.67
81 Air Force 6 22 3.67
83 Mississippi St 8 29 3.63
84 North Texas 4 14 3.50
85 Ohio 9 31 3.44
86 WKU 7 24 3.43
87 Auburn 3 10 3.33
88 Western Michigan 4 13 3.25
88 Maryland 4 13 3.25
90 Wake Forest 5 16 3.20
90 Marshall 5 16 3.20
92 Utah 5 15 3.00
92 Tennessee 5 15 3.00
92 Memphis 4 12 3.00
92 Wash St 3 9 3.00
92 Eastern Michigan 2 6 3.00
92 Colorado 1 3 3.00
98 Nevada 7 20 2.86
99 Purdue 6 17 2.83
100 East Carolina 8 22 2.75
100 Bowling Green 8 22 2.75
100 Wyoming 4 11 2.75
100 Miami, OH 4 11 2.75
104 Central Michigan 7 19 2.71
105 Temple 4 10 2.50
105 Colorado St 4 10 2.50
107 Buffalo 4 9 2.25
108 New Mexico 4 8 2.00
108 FIU 3 6 2.00
108 Illinois 2 4 2.00
108 Boston College 2 4 2.00
112 Texas St 4 7 1.75
112 Indiana 4 7 1.75
114 UAB 3 5 1.67
115 South Alabama 2 3 1.50
116 Hawaii 3 4 1.33
117 UTSA 8 8 1.00
117 UTEP 3 3 1.00
117 Massachusetts 1 1 1.00
117 Idaho 1 1 1.00
121 Southern Miss 0 0 0.00
121 New Mexico St 1 0 0.00
121 Kansas 1 0 0.00
121 Akron 1 0 0.00

The Gators actually topped the charts here as their 11 wins came over teams that averaged 7.45 wins this past year. Stanford and Notre Dame are next and there are also a couple more surprises. First, Baylor proved to have some quality wins as their 8 wins this past year came over teams that averaged 6.63 wins including their win over an 11-win Kansas St team. Michigan St’s 7 wins this past year came over teams that won an average 6.43 games. At the bottom, UTSA, which won 8 games this past year only had a total of 8 combined wins because four of those wins came over lower level competition. Their 8 wins only averaged 1 per team as South Alabama won just 2 games, New Mexico St 1, Idaho 1 and Texas St 4.       

Tomorrow I will be back to take a look at the opposite end of this data and analyze the losses for each team from this past year.