Daily Blog •February 18, 2013	Blog Archives

I am always looking for different ways in how to analyze a team for the upcoming season and if you read my magazine you know I use many past season statistics and performances in order to predict the future.

In today’s blog, I wanted to find out how teams did against their schedules from this past year with regards to quality of wins. What I did in this particular formula was to take the amount of wins each team had from 2012 and then gave them the total number of wins that their opponent had for the season. For example, Notre Dame beat Stanford this past year and the Cardinal won 12 games so the Irish would get all 12 of those wins. The Irish also beat Oklahoma, which won 10 games and Michigan which won 8 games. Those three wins would give them a total of 29 combined wins and when you add in Notre Dame’s 9 other teams’ wins that they beat this past season you get a total of 86 combined wins, which was actually good enough for best in the country along with Stanford whose 12 wins this past year also came over opponents with a combined 86 wins.

First a quick note with my formula: Any wins over FCS teams do not count into my formula. Only wins over FBS teams count. Therefore a team a team like Kansas, which had their only win this entire season come over an FCS opponent would not count as a total of 0 and not 9 which their FCS opponent South Dakota St won.

Naturally you do not receive any wins for a team you lost to so Notre Dame which lost only one game this past year to Alabama does not get credit for the Tide’s 13 wins.

Here are the results from my formula and there are not many surprises as it is a “whose who” of the top teams in college football from a year ago.

Total Combined Wins over Teams Beaten

Rk	Team	Total Wins	Combined Foe Wins
1	Notre Dame	12	86
1	Stanford	12	86
3	Alabama	13	84
4	Florida	11	82
5	Oregon	12	76
6	Ohio St	12	73
7	South Carolina	11	67
7	Kansas St	11	67
9	Texas A&M	11	66
9	Georgia	12	66
11	Florida St	12	64
12	Nebraska	10	61
13	Tulsa	11	60
13	San Jose St	11	60
13	Clemson	11	60
16	Oklahoma	10	57
17	LSU	10	56
17	Louisville	11	56
19	Texas	9	55
19	Arkansas St	10	55
21	Utah St	11	54
21	UCLA	9	54
23	Baylor	8	53
24	Oregon St	9	52
24	Kent St	11	52
24	Boise St	11	52
27	Northern Illinois	12	51
28	Northwestern	10	50
29	Penn St	8	46
30	Michigan St	7	45
31	Oklahoma St	8	44
31	Ball St	9	44
31	Arizona	8	44
34	UCF	10	43
34	Cincinnati	10	43
36	Wisconsin	8	42
36	ULM	9	42
36	Michigan	8	42
39	Syracuse	8	41
40	Toledo	9	40
41	Washington	7	39
41	San Diego St	9	39
41	Louisiana	9	39
44	Rutgers	9	38
44	North Carolina	8	38
44	Fresno St	9	38
47	Virginia Tech	7	36
47	TCU	7	36
49	Vanderbilt	9	35
49	USC	7	35
49	Texas Tech	8	35
49	Middle Tennessee	8	35
49	BYU	8	35
54	Navy	8	34
54	Louisiana Tech	9	34
56	West Virginia	7	33
57	SMU	7	32
57	Miami, FL	7	32
59	Ohio	9	31
59	Iowa St	6	31
59	Georgia Tech	7	31
62	NC State	7	30
62	Arizona St	8	30
64	Mississippi St	8	29
65	Rice	7	27
65	Pittsburgh	6	27
67	Mississippi	7	26
67	Connecticut	5	26
69	Missouri	5	25
69	Iowa	4	25
71	WKU	7	24
71	Duke	6	24
73	Virginia	4	22
73	Minnesota	6	22
73	East Carolina	8	22
73	Bowling Green	8	22
73	Air Force	6	22
78	Troy	5	20
78	Nevada	7	20
80	Houston	5	19
80	Central Michigan	7	19
82	Purdue	6	17
83	Wake Forest	5	16
83	Marshall	5	16
83	Arkansas	4	16
86	Utah	5	15
86	Tennessee	5	15
88	North Texas	4	14
89	Western Michigan	4	13
89	Maryland	4	13
91	USF	3	12
91	Memphis	4	12
91	FAU	3	12
91	California	3	12
95	Wyoming	4	11
95	Miami, OH	4	11
95	Kentucky	2	11
98	UNLV	2	10
98	Tulane	2	10
98	Temple	4	10
98	Colorado St	4	10
98	Auburn	3	10
103	Wash St	3	9
103	Buffalo	4	9
105	UTSA	8	8
105	New Mexico	4	8
105	Army	2	8
108	Texas St	4	7
108	Indiana	4	7
110	FIU	3	6
110	Eastern Michigan	2	6
112	UAB	3	5
113	Illinois	2	4
113	Hawaii	3	4
113	Boston College	2	4
116	UTEP	3	3
116	South Alabama	2	3
116	Colorado	1	3
119	Massachusetts	1	1
119	Idaho	1	1
121	Southern Miss	0	0
121	New Mexico St	1	0
121	Kansas	1	0
121	Akron	1	0

The next thing I did was to take an average number of wins each opponent had for a team that it had beaten. For example, UNLV won two games a year ago. One of the wins was over a 6-win Air Force team and the other came over New Mexico, which won 4 games. This gave them a total of 10 wins and when u divide it by two you naturally get a win average of 5.

By using this method you can see which teams feasted upon weaker opponents and which teams had some quality wins.

Here are the results.

Average # of Wins for Foes Beaten

Rk	Team	Total Wins	Comb Foe Wins	Foe Win Avg
1	Florida	11	82	7.45
2	Stanford	12	86	7.17
2	Notre Dame	12	86	7.17
4	Baylor	8	53	6.63
5	Alabama	13	84	6.46
6	Michigan St	7	45	6.43
7	Oregon	12	76	6.33
8	Iowa	4	25	6.25
9	Texas	9	55	6.11
10	Nebraska	10	61	6.10
11	South Carolina	11	67	6.09
11	Kansas St	11	67	6.09
13	Ohio St	12	73	6.08
14	Texas A&M	11	66	6.00
14	UCLA	9	54	6.00
16	Oregon St	9	52	5.78
17	Penn St	8	46	5.75
18	Oklahoma	10	57	5.70
19	LSU	10	56	5.60
20	Washington	7	39	5.57
21	Georgia	12	66	5.50
21	Arkansas St	10	55	5.50
21	Oklahoma St	8	44	5.50
21	Arizona	8	44	5.50
21	Virginia	4	22	5.50
21	Kentucky	2	11	5.50
27	Tulsa	11	60	5.45
27	San Jose St	11	60	5.45
27	Clemson	11	60	5.45
30	Florida St	12	64	5.33
31	Wisconsin	8	42	5.25
31	Michigan	8	42	5.25
33	Connecticut	5	26	5.20
34	Iowa St	6	31	5.17
35	Virginia Tech	7	36	5.14
35	TCU	7	36	5.14
37	Syracuse	8	41	5.13
38	Louisville	11	56	5.09
39	Northwestern	10	50	5.00
39	USC	7	35	5.00
39	Missouri	5	25	5.00
39	UNLV	2	10	5.00
39	Tulane	2	10	5.00
44	Utah St	11	54	4.91
45	Ball St	9	44	4.89
46	North Carolina	8	38	4.75
47	Kent St	11	52	4.73
47	Boise St	11	52	4.73
49	West Virginia	7	33	4.71
50	ULM	9	42	4.67
51	SMU	7	32	4.57
51	Miami, FL	7	32	4.57
53	Pittsburgh	6	27	4.50
54	Toledo	9	40	4.44
55	Georgia Tech	7	31	4.43
56	Texas Tech	8	35	4.38
56	Middle Tennessee	8	35	4.38
56	BYU	8	35	4.38
59	San Diego St	9	39	4.33
59	Louisiana	9	39	4.33
61	UCF	10	43	4.30
61	Cincinnati	10	43	4.30
63	NC State	7	30	4.29
64	Northern Illinois	12	51	4.25
64	Navy	8	34	4.25
66	Rutgers	9	38	4.22
66	Fresno St	9	38	4.22
68	Duke	6	24	4.00
68	Troy	5	20	4.00
68	Arkansas	4	16	4.00
68	USF	3	12	4.00
68	FAU	3	12	4.00
68	California	3	12	4.00
68	Army	2	8	4.00
75	Vanderbilt	9	35	3.89
76	Rice	7	27	3.86
77	Houston	5	19	3.80
78	Louisiana Tech	9	34	3.78
79	Arizona St	8	30	3.75
80	Mississippi	7	26	3.71
81	Minnesota	6	22	3.67
81	Air Force	6	22	3.67
83	Mississippi St	8	29	3.63
84	North Texas	4	14	3.50
85	Ohio	9	31	3.44
86	WKU	7	24	3.43
87	Auburn	3	10	3.33
88	Western Michigan	4	13	3.25
88	Maryland	4	13	3.25
90	Wake Forest	5	16	3.20
90	Marshall	5	16	3.20
92	Utah	5	15	3.00
92	Tennessee	5	15	3.00
92	Memphis	4	12	3.00
92	Wash St	3	9	3.00
92	Eastern Michigan	2	6	3.00
92	Colorado	1	3	3.00
98	Nevada	7	20	2.86
99	Purdue	6	17	2.83
100	East Carolina	8	22	2.75
100	Bowling Green	8	22	2.75
100	Wyoming	4	11	2.75
100	Miami, OH	4	11	2.75
104	Central Michigan	7	19	2.71
105	Temple	4	10	2.50
105	Colorado St	4	10	2.50
107	Buffalo	4	9	2.25
108	New Mexico	4	8	2.00
108	FIU	3	6	2.00
108	Illinois	2	4	2.00
108	Boston College	2	4	2.00
112	Texas St	4	7	1.75
112	Indiana	4	7	1.75
114	UAB	3	5	1.67
115	South Alabama	2	3	1.50
116	Hawaii	3	4	1.33
117	UTSA	8	8	1.00
117	UTEP	3	3	1.00
117	Massachusetts	1	1	1.00
117	Idaho	1	1	1.00
121	Southern Miss	0	0	0.00
121	New Mexico St	1	0	0.00
121	Kansas	1	0	0.00
121	Akron	1	0	0.00

The Gators actually topped the charts here as their 11 wins came over teams that averaged 7.45 wins this past year. Stanford and Notre Dame are next and there are also a couple more surprises. First, Baylor proved to have some quality wins as their 8 wins this past year came over teams that averaged 6.63 wins including their win over an 11-win Kansas St team. Michigan St’s 7 wins this past year came over teams that won an average 6.43 games. At the bottom, UTSA, which won 8 games this past year only had a total of 8 combined wins because four of those wins came over lower level competition. Their 8 wins only averaged 1 per team as South Alabama won just 2 games, New Mexico St 1, Idaho 1 and Texas St 4.

Tomorrow I will be back to take a look at the opposite end of this data and analyze the losses for each team from this past year.