Daily Blog •February 19, 2013	Blog Archives

I am always looking for different ways in how to analyze a team for the upcoming season and if you read my magazine you know I use many past season statistics and performances in order to predict the future.

In yesterday’s blog, I wanted to find out how teams did against their schedules from this past year with regards to quality of wins. What I did in that particular formula was to take the amount of wins each team had from 2012 and then gave them the total number of wins that their opponent had for the season. You can read more about my results here.

Today, I wanted to take a look at the opposite end of the spectrum and look at total losses for a team. For each loss that a team had, I would add in the total amount of losses that their opponent had for the season.

For example, Georgia lost a total of two games last year. Their first loss came at South Carolina, which lost a total of 2 games in 2012 and their second loss came to Alabama in the SEC Championship game which lost just one game. Georgia certainly had two painful losses to two outstanding teams and their total for the year would be 3.

Here are the results from my formula and there are not many surprises as it is a “whose who” of the top teams in college football from a year ago. One team that did surprise me was San Jose St, which did go 11-2 last year and their only two losses were to a 12-2 Stanford team and a 11-2 Utah St team.

Total Combined Losses for Opponents

Rank	Team	Total Losses	Combined Foe Losses
1	Ohio St	0	0
2	Notre Dame	1	1
3	Alabama	1	2
3	Oregon	1	2
5	Georgia	2	3
6	Florida	2	4
6	San Jose St	2	4
6	Clemson	2	4
9	South Carolina	2	5
9	Texas A&M	2	5
9	Oklahoma	3	5
9	LSU	3	5
13	Kansas St	2	6
13	Louisiana Tech	3	6
15	Stanford	2	7
16	Florida St	2	8
16	Michigan	5	8
18	Vanderbilt	4	9
19	Boise St	2	10
19	Northern Illinois	2	10
19	Cincinnati	3	10
22	Arkansas St	3	11
22	Utah St	2	11
22	Ball St	4	11
25	Louisville	2	12
25	Fresno St	4	12
27	Nebraska	4	13
27	Oregon St	4	13
27	Northwestern	3	13
27	UCF	4	13
27	Toledo	4	13
27	UTSA	4	13
33	Kent St	3	15
33	Mississippi St	5	15
35	Penn St	4	16
35	BYU	5	16
35	Mississippi	6	16
38	Texas	4	17
38	Arizona	5	17
38	San Diego St	4	17
38	Miami, Fl	5	17
38	Bowling Green	5	17
43	Louisiana	4	18
43	Rutgers	4	18
43	Missouri	7	18
46	Oklahoma St	5	19
46	Texas Tech	5	19
46	Navy	5	19
46	East Carolina	5	19
50	Wisconsin	6	20
50	Middle Tennessee	4	20
50	Ohio	4	20
53	Tulsa	3	21
53	Michigan St	6	21
53	ULM	4	21
53	USC	6	21
57	UCLA	5	22
58	Syracuse	5	23
58	North Carolina	4	23
58	Virginia Tech	6	23
58	Arizona St	5	23
58	Tennessee	7	23
63	Baylor	5	26
63	Washington	6	26
63	West Virginia	6	26
63	Georgia Tech	7	26
67	Duke	7	27
67	Arkansas	8	27
69	TCU	6	28
69	Iowa St	7	28
69	WKU	6	28
69	Purdue	7	28
73	Central Michigan	6	29
74	NC State	6	30
74	Wake Forest	7	30
76	Nevada	6	31
76	Miami, Oh	8	31
78	Pittsburgh	7	32
79	SMU	6	33
79	Rice	6	33
79	Utah	7	33
79	Temple	7	33
79	Auburn	9	33
84	Buffalo	8	34
85	Indiana	8	35
86	North Texas	8	36
86	Texas St	8	36
88	Minnesota	7	37
88	Houston	7	37
88	California	9	37
88	Colorado St	8	37
92	Troy	7	38
92	Marshall	7	38
94	USF	9	39
94	Wyoming	8	39
96	FIU	9	41
97	Connecticut	7	42
98	Iowa	8	44
98	Maryland	8	44
98	Memphis	8	44
101	Air Force	7	45
101	Kentucky	10	45
103	UAB	9	46
103	UTEP	9	46
105	Virginia	8	48
105	Western Michigan	8	48
105	FAU	9	48
105	Illinois	10	48
109	Washington St	9	49
109	Eastern Michigan	10	49
109	Boston College	10	49
112	Hawaii	9	51
112	Kansas	11	51
114	Idaho	11	52
115	Army	10	54
116	New Mexico	9	55
117	Tulane	10	56
118	Colorado	11	57
119	South Alabama	11	63
119	Akron	11	63
121	Massachusetts	11	65
122	UNLV	11	66
122	New Mexico St	11	66
124	Southern Miss	12	68

Just like yesterday the next thing I did was to take an average number of losses each opponent had for a team that it had lost to. For example, Boise St who lost two games last year lost to a 7-6 Michigan St team in the opener and also lost to a 9-4 San Diego St team at home in MW play. This would give them a total of 10 combined losses or naturally an average of 5 per team.

By using this method you can see which teams underachieved greatly by losing to some weaker teams and which teams also had some quality losses.

Here are the results.

Average # of Losses

Rank	Team	Total Losses	Combined Foe Losses	Foe Loss Avg
1	Ohio St	0	0	0.00
2	Notre Dame	1	1	1.00
3	Georgia	2	3	1.50
4	Michigan	5	8	1.60
5	Oklahoma	3	5	1.67
5	LSU	3	5	1.67
7	Alabama	1	2	2.00
7	Oregon	1	2	2.00
7	Florida	2	4	2.00
7	San Jose St	2	4	2.00
7	Clemson	2	4	2.00
7	Louisiana Tech	3	6	2.00
13	Vanderbilt	4	9	2.25
14	South Carolina	2	5	2.50
14	Texas A&M	2	5	2.50
16	Missouri	7	18	2.57
17	Mississippi	6	16	2.67
18	Ball St	4	11	2.75
19	Kansas St	2	6	3.00
19	Fresno St	4	12	3.00
19	Mississippi St	5	15	3.00
22	BYU	5	16	3.20
23	Nebraska	4	13	3.25
23	Oregon St	4	13	3.25
23	UCF	4	13	3.25
23	Toledo	4	13	3.25
23	UTSA	4	13	3.25
28	Tennessee	7	23	3.29
29	Cincinnati	3	10	3.33
29	Wisconsin	6	20	3.33
31	Arkansas	8	27	3.38
32	Arizona	5	17	3.40
32	Miami, Fl	5	17	3.40
32	Bowling Green	5	17	3.40
35	Stanford	2	7	3.50
35	Michigan St	6	21	3.50
35	USC	6	21	3.50
38	Arkansas St	3	11	3.67
38	Auburn	9	33	3.67
40	Georgia Tech	7	26	3.71
41	Oklahoma St	5	19	3.80
41	Texas Tech	5	19	3.80
41	Navy	5	19	3.80
41	East Carolina	5	19	3.80
45	Virginia Tech	6	23	3.83
46	Duke	7	27	3.86
47	Miami, Oh	8	31	3.88
48	Florida St	2	8	4.00
48	Penn St	4	16	4.00
48	Iowa St	7	28	4.00
48	Purdue	7	28	4.00
52	California	9	37	4.11
53	Texas	4	17	4.25
53	San Diego St	4	17	4.25
53	Buffalo	8	34	4.25
56	Wake Forest	7	30	4.29
57	Northwestern	3	13	4.33
57	Washington	6	26	4.33
57	West Virginia	6	26	4.33
57	USF	9	39	4.33
61	Indiana	8	35	4.38
62	UCLA	5	22	4.40
63	Louisiana	4	18	4.50
63	Rutgers	4	18	4.50
63	North Texas	8	36	4.50
63	Texas St	8	36	4.50
63	Kentucky	10	45	4.50
68	FIU	9	41	4.56
69	Pittsburgh	7	32	4.57
70	Syracuse	5	23	4.60
70	Arizona St	5	23	4.60
72	Colorado St	8	37	4.63
73	Kansas	11	51	4.64
74	TCU	6	28	4.67
74	WKU	6	28	4.67
76	Utah	7	33	4.71
76	Temple	7	33	4.71
78	Idaho	11	52	4.73
79	Illinois	10	48	4.80
80	Central Michigan	6	29	4.83
81	Wyoming	8	39	4.88
82	Eastern Michigan	10	49	4.90
83	Boston College	10	49	4.90
84	Boise St	2	10	5.00
84	Northern Illinois	2	10	5.00
84	Kent St	3	15	5.00
84	Middle Tennessee	4	20	5.00
84	Ohio	4	20	5.00
84	NC State	6	30	5.00
90	UAB	9	46	5.11
90	UTEP	9	46	5.11
92	Nevada	6	31	5.17
93	Colorado	11	57	5.18
94	Baylor	5	26	5.20
95	ULM	4	21	5.25
96	Minnesota	7	37	5.29
96	Houston	7	37	5.29
98	FAU	9	48	5.33
99	Army	10	54	5.40
100	Troy	7	38	5.43
100	Marshall	7	38	5.43
102	Washington St	9	49	5.44
103	Utah St	2	11	5.50
103	SMU	6	33	5.50
103	Rice	6	33	5.50
103	Iowa	8	44	5.50
103	Maryland	8	44	5.50
103	Memphis	8	44	5.50
109	Tulane	10	56	5.60
110	Hawaii	9	51	5.67
110	Southern Miss	12	68	5.67
112	South Alabama	11	63	5.73
112	Akron	11	63	5.73
114	North Carolina	4	23	5.75
115	Massachusetts	11	65	5.91
116	Louisville	2	12	6.00
116	Connecticut	7	42	6.00
116	Virginia	8	48	6.00
116	Western Michigan	8	48	6.00
116	UNLV	11	66	6.00
116	New Mexico St	11	66	6.00
122	New Mexico	9	55	6.11
123	Air Force	7	45	6.43
124	Tulsa	3	21	7.00

A couple of teams really stood out here. First, Michigan lost five games last year…but their looses came against Alabama, Notre Dame and Ohio St which combined for just 2 losses and then they also lost to Nebraska and South Carolina which lost a total of 6 games between them. This gave Michigan an incredible average of 1.6 meaning that every opponent they lost to had an average of just 1.6 losses! A couple of other teams that suffered some quality losses were Oklahoma and LSU who each had three losses but those were against opponents that in 2012 lost just a combined 5 games.

At the bottom of the chart, I found it interesting that Louisville’s 2 losses were to an 8-5 Syracuse team and a 5-7 Connecticut team that gave them an avg of 6.0 meaning they underachieved in those two and also North Carolina’s 4 losses came against teams that averaged 5.75 losses last year.