Daily Blog •July 3, 2013


Who Plays the Toughest Schedule in 2013?

The question arises each year, “who plays the toughest schedule?” At the beginning of the season, the NCAA usually releases a rating of each team’s schedule based on their opponents’ win/loss record from the previous season. This is a good method but it does have its obvious flaws.

The first flaw is basing the ratings on opponent’s records from the PREVIOUS season. Let’s look at a couple of examples. Last year, I had Florida as my surprise winner of the SEC East and they wound up going 11-1 in the regular season. I also had UCF as one of my top non-BCS teams and they finished with 10 wins. However, if you used the NCAA method you only got credit for playing two teams who were a combined 12-13 in 2011.

Two years ago, I had Houston in my Top 25 and they finished 13-1 and ranked #18. I also had Georgia and Clemson on my Most Improved Teams List and counted them as a ranked team for the upcoming schedule and they finished the regular season ranked #12 and #21. If you used the NCAA method you only got credit for playing 3 teams with losing records (all below .500 in ‘10).

On the flip side let’s look at 2009’s Ball St team. They were in an obvious rebuilding year and my power ratings had them only winning 2 or 3 games. My methods gave teams credit for a weak foe when facing Ball St but basing it on the previous year’s record, teams were given credit for playing a 12-2 team which is what they finished in 2008! That is a MAJOR flaw!

The second flaw is basing it on pure overall records. If a team played an FCS school that was 11-1 in 2007, that counted as a MUCH tougher game in the NCAA ratings than facing a team like Alabama who was 7-6 in ‘07 but #1 at the end of ‘08 regular season! My ratings obviously had Bama ranked as a MUCH tougher team than any FCS foe.

Another great example came from last year. In 2011, Ohio St went 6-7 and any team FCS team that had a winning record in 2011 would have counted as a tougher game in the NCAA method than facing a Buckeyes team who would go to be the only school in the country to finish the season unbeaten in 2012.  

Now let’s turn our attention to 2013. This year I again decided to see what the NCAA method would come up with for toughest opponent’s faced, which I always list in the magazine. Below is a chart of all 126 teams and the combined 2012 opponents’ records. It is ranked in order of highest % of opponent wins (or toughest schedule) to lowest % of opponent wins (or easiest schedule).

Again this is the NCAA's method and not MINE!

NCAA Method (Opponent Win % from 2012)

Rk Team Foe Wins Foe Losses Foe Win %
1. Kentucky 103 50 67.3%
2. Arkansas 99 54 64.7%
3. Purdue 96 56 63.2%
3. Missouri 96 56 63.2%
5. Kansas 96 57 62.7%
6. Akron 97 58 62.6%
7. Florida 96 58 62.3%
8. Oklahoma 96 60 61.5%
9. California 93 60 60.8%
9. South Carolina 93 60 60.8%
11. Pittsburgh 94 61 60.6%
12. Illinois 92 60 60.5%
13. LSU 93 61 60.4%
14. Colorado 90 63 58.8%
14. TCU 90 63 58.8%
16. NC State 88 62 58.7%
17. Oklahoma St 89 63 58.6%
18. Utah 90 64 58.4%
19. Memphis 87 62 58.4%
20. Eastern Michigan 88 63 58.3%
21. Iowa St 89 64 58.2%
21. Tennessee 89 64 58.2%
23. Notre Dame 90 65 58.1%
24. Georgia Tech 87 63 58.0%
25. BYU 88 64 57.9%
26. SMU 87 64 57.6%
27. Stanford 88 65 57.5%
28. Virginia 87 65 57.2%
29. Baylor 88 66 57.1%
29. Nevada 88 66 57.1%
31. Michigan 86 65 57.0%
31. Mississippi St 86 65 57.0%
31. Georgia 86 65 57.0%
34. Iowa 80 61 56.7%
35. Houston 85 65 56.7%
35. USF 85 65 56.7%
37. Colorado St 94 72 56.6%
38. Auburn 86 66 56.6%
39. Arizona St 87 67 56.5%
40. Kansas St 88 68 56.4%
41. Georgia St 84 65 56.4%
42. Indiana 85 66 56.3%
43. Texas A&M 87 68 56.1%
44. Penn St 87 69 55.8%
45. Clemson 84 67 55.6%
46. Buffalo 83 68 55.0%
47. North Carolina 84 69 54.9%
47. UNLV 84 69 54.9%
49. Temple 82 68 54.7%
50. Texas Tech 83 69 54.6%
51. Connecticut 81 68 54.4%
52. Syracuse 83 70 54.2%
52. Hawaii 83 70 54.2%
54. Mississippi 81 69 54.0%
55. Maryland 82 70 53.9%
55. Air Force 82 70 53.9%
55. San Diego St 82 70 53.9%
55. Massachusetts 82 70 53.9%
59. Idaho 81 70 53.6%
60. Toledo 82 71 53.6%
61. San Jose St 81 71 53.3%
62. Texas 82 72 53.2%
63. Boston College 80 71 53.0%
63. Washington St 80 71 53.0%
65. Oregon St 81 72 52.9%
66. UCLA 81 73 52.6%
67. Wyoming 79 72 52.3%
67. North Texas 79 72 52.3%
69. USC 86 79 52.1%
70. Florida St 78 72 52.0%
71. Washington 79 73 52.0%
72. Wake Forest 78 73 51.7%
72. Tulane 78 73 51.7%
74. Kent St 77 73 51.3%
75. Northwestern 77 74 51.0%
75. Boise St 77 74 51.0%
77. Michigan St 76 74 50.7%
78. Western Michigan 77 75 50.7%
79. Vanderbilt 75 74 50.3%
79. South Alabama 75 74 50.3%
81. Minnesota 76 76 50.0%
81. West Virginia 75 75 50.0%
81. Rutgers 74 74 50.0%
84. Duke 74 75 49.7%
84. Tulsa 74 75 49.7%
86. Central Michigan 75 77 49.3%
87. FIU 73 75 49.3%
88. New Mexico 74 77 49.0%
89. Louisville 72 75 49.0%
90. Arizona 73 77 48.7%
91. Wisconsin 72 76 48.6%
91. Southern Miss 72 76 48.6%
93. Miami, Fl 73 78 48.3%
93. Navy 73 78 48.3%
95. UTEP 72 77 48.3%
96. UCF 71 76 48.3%
97. Nebraska 73 79 48.0%
98. UAB 70 77 47.6%
99. Virginia Tech 71 79 47.3%
100. Army 70 78 47.3%
101. Fresno St 71 80 47.0%
102. Ohio St 70 79 47.0%
103. Old Dominion 60 68 46.9%
104. Alabama 68 79 46.3%
105. Bowling Green 69 81 46.0%
105. UTSA 69 81 46.0%
107. Miami, Oh 69 82 45.7%
107. Ball St 69 82 45.7%
109. East Carolina 68 81 45.6%
110. Marshall 67 81 45.3%
111. New Mexico St 68 83 45.0%
112. Oregon 67 83 44.7%
112. Utah St 67 83 44.7%
114. Troy 66 84 44.0%
115. Cincinnati 64 82 43.8%
116. ULM 64 84 43.2%
117. Rice 61 86 41.5%
118. Northern Illinois 62 88 41.3%
119. Ohio 60 88 40.5%
120. Arkansas St 59 88 40.1%
120. WKU 59 88 40.1%
122. Texas St 58 90 39.2%
123. Louisiana 55 92 37.4%
124. Louisiana Tech 54 93 36.7%
125. Middle Tennessee 50 95 34.5%
126. Florida Atlantic 50 96 34.2%

Below are my rankings for the nation’s toughest schedules this year. These rankings take two major factors into account. The first is my 9 sets of Power Ratings. This ensures that an FCS team is rated much lower than USC and Virginia Tech, two teams that finished just 7-6 last year! The second factor is the amount of home and away games played.

The toughest schedule this year according to my rankings belongs to Florida while the easiest belongs to Old Dominion.

Phil Steele's 2013 Toughest Schedules

Rank Team Rank Team Rank Team
1 Florida 43 Iowa 85 Rutgers
2 Oklahoma 44 West Virginia 86 Houston
3 California 45 Northwestern 87 North Texas
4 Purdue 46 Syracuse 88 UCF
5 Arkansas 47 USF 89 Southern Miss
6 Iowa St 48 Wake Forest 90 Central Michigan
7 Colorado 49 BYU 91 Boise St
8 Stanford 50 Washington 92 Wyoming
9 Kentucky 51 Penn St 93 Utah St
10 Kansas 52 Arizona 94 Tulane
11 Missouri 53 Minnesota 95 UAB
12 Utah 54 SMU 96 East Carolina
13 Notre Dame 55 Clemson 97 Western Michigan
14 South Carolina 56 Nevada 98 Louisville
15 Texas 57 NC State 99 Navy
16 LSU 58 Oregon 100 New Mexico
17 TCU 59 Virginia Tech 101 Cincinnati
18 Auburn 60 Miami, Fl 102 FIU
19 Tennessee 61 Michigan St 103 UTEP
20 Illinois 62 Maryland 104 Florida Atlantic
21 UCLA 63 Connecticut 105 Air Force
22 Baylor 64 Florida St 106 UNLV
23 Georgia 65 Temple 107 Fresno St
24 Pittsburgh 66 Nebraska 108 Troy
25 Kansas St 67 Ohio St 109 ULM
26 Washington St 68 Memphis 110 South Alabama
27 Virginia 69 Wisconsin 111 Marshall
28 Texas A&M 70 Idaho 112 Arkansas St
29 Michigan 71 Akron 113 New Mexico St
30 Texas Tech 72 Colorado St 114 Rice
31 Arizona St 73 Tulsa 115 Bowling Green
32 Oklahoma St 74 Buffalo 116 Ball St
33 Mississippi St 75 San Diego St 117 Army
34 Mississippi 76 Hawaii 118 WKU
35 USC 77 Duke 119 Middle Tennessee
36 Boston College 78 UTSA 120 Louisiana Tech
37 Oregon St 79 Kent St 121 Louisiana
38 Indiana 80 Toledo 122 Ohio
39 Vanderbilt 81 San Jose St 123 Texas St
40 Alabama 82 Massachusetts 124 Northern Illinois
41 Georgia Tech 83 Eastern Michigan 125 Georgia St
42 North Carolina 84 Miami, Oh 126 Old Dominion

Let’s pick out 2 teams to show you the flaws of just using last year’s overall opponent records. Based on 2012’s opponent records Georgia St has the #41 toughest schedule while Virginia Tech takes on an easy #99 slate. Virginia Tech’s “cupcake” #99 schedule features 5 road trips vs BCS foes including Top 20 caliber teams in Alabama and Miami, Fl. They also play 2 of their games vs non-AQ teams against the likes of Marshall and East Carolina, which are two of the toughest teams in CUSA this year. Georgia St’s much “tougher” slate includes 3 games against FCS competition and while they do play West Virginia (much weaker this year) and Alabama, their other 7 games against FBS teams are all SBC tms. Overall, VT plays 9 games against BCS teams with the possibility of playing as many as 4 ranked teams while Georgia St plays just 2 BCS teams and only one of those teams will be ranked (Alabama). Do you really think Trent Miles would trade schedules? My strength of schedule has Virginia Tech at #59 and Georgia St’s at #125.

Here are the teams with the biggest discrepancy in the two methods of determining toughest schedule and you can check out each team’s schedules to see which method you think is better. I list the difference in rankings between the two in ( )’s. Most UNDERRATED schedules (teams that face a tougher slate than the NCAA’s % rankings): 1. Alabama (64) 2. Oregon (54) 3. Texas (47) 4. UCLA (45) 5. Virginia Tech (40) 5. Vanderbilt (40) 7. Arizona (38) 8. West Virginia (37) 8. Washington St (37) 10. Ohio St (35).

Here are the Most OVERRATED Schedules (teams that face an easier slate than the NCAA’s % rankings): 1. Georgia St (84) 2. Akron (65) 3. Eastern Michigan (63) 3. UNLV (59) 3. Houston (51) 6. Air Force (50) 7. Memphis (49) 8. NC State (41) 9. Colorado St (35) 10. South Alabama (31).

So which method do you think is better?

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