Daily Blog •July 25, 2013

Last year Florida State was my surprise preseason pick to win the National Title and I took a lot of flak for it in my summer radio show tour. Naturally, Florida State did not win the National Title, but they were favored by 13.5 points or more in 13 of their 14 games while they were a touchdown favorite against Florida in the other game. They led into the 4th quarter of every game, but were upset twice and only finished #10.

This year during my summer radio show tour, I continue to catch some flak for that pick from last year but the fact is, the Noles were one of the most impressive teams in the country last year. I began to wonder how many teams were actually favored in all of their games last year while also taking a look at a couple of other key categories such as ypg and ppg differential.

I devised a formula to evaluate teams by taking the average rank for ppg differential, ypg differential, the average Las Vegas line for each game rank and then the final record rank and ranked the teams based on those averages.

Most Impressive Teams in 2013

Rank
 Name PPG
Diff		 Rank YPG
Diff		 Rank # of
Gms Fav		 # of
Gms Dog		 Avg
Line		 Rank SOS
Rank		 Wins Losses
1
 Alabama 27.8 2 195.5 2 14 0 -24.3 2 51 13 1
2
 Oregon 27.9 1 163.2 4 13 0 -25.2 1 45 12 1
3
 Florida St 24.6 3 217.4 1 14 0 -24.3 2 70 12 2
4
 Texas A&M 22.7 4 168.3 3 11 2 -12.4 11 14 11 2
5
 Georgia 18.2 7 109.9 12 11 3 -14.8 6 50 12 2
6
 Utah St 19.5 5 147.0 5 9 4 -11.8 14 116 11 2
7
 Clemson 16.2 10 116.5 10 11 2 -11.8 14 53 11 2
8
 Northern Illinois 18.7 6 100.3 16 12 2 -10 21 124 12 2
9
 Boise St 14.5 13 75.7 26 12 1 -14.8 6 106 11 2
10
 Ohio St 14.3 14 64.2 34 9 2 -14.7 8 62 12 0
11
 Oklahoma 12.7 23 99.5 18 12 1 -16 5 18 10 3
12
 Notre Dame 13.0 21 106.7 14 10 3 -8.2 30 10 12 1
13
 Oklahoma St 17.5 8 125.3 9 10 3 -12.9 10 24 8 5
14
 Fresno St 14.1 15 138.7 6 10 3 -8.6 26 90 9 4
15
 San Jose St 13.5 18 101.5 15 10 3 -7.2 34 89 11 2
16
 LSU 12.2 24 66.6 32 12 1 -17.7 4 30 10 3
16
 BYU 14.7 12 134.3 7 10 3 -11 18 68 8 5
18
 North Carolina 14.9 11 96.0 20 11 1 -12.3 12 86 8 4
18
 Tulsa 11.1 28 109.4 13 12 1 -9.5 22 104 11 3
20
 South Carolina 13.3 20 61.0 37 10 3 -11.4 17 21 11 2
21
 Florida 12.0 25 46.9 45 9 4 -11.5 16 3 11 2
22
 Cincinnati 13.9 17 52.2 41 10 3 -10.5 19 88 10 3
23
 Kansas St 16.8 9 26.1 59 10 3 -9 23 23 11 2
23
 Louisiana Tech 13.0 21 51.8 42 8 4 -12.3 12 115 9 3
25
 Louisville 7.4 38 78.5 23 11 2 -8 32 92 11 2
26
 Nebraska 7.2 42 100.2 17 11 2 -10.5 19 43 10 4
27
 Arizona St 14.1 15 113.8 11 8 5 -6.2 40 48 8 5
28
 Stanford 10.7 29 38.2 52 11 3 -7.2 34 8 12 2
29
 UCF 13.4 19 33.8 53 11 3 -8.9 24 110 10 4
30
 Arkansas St 10.5 30 83.0 22 9 4 -4 52 96 10 3
31
 Oregon St 11.9 26 77.5 25 7 6 -4.7 48 20 9 4
32
 Texas Tech 5.7 48 128.5 8 8 5 -8.3 29 40 8 5
33
 Ohio 6.9 43 56.4 39 9 4 -8.8 25 122 9 4
34
 Michigan 10.0 32 63.1 36 8 5 -8.5 27 32 8 5
35
 Vanderbilt 11.3 27 45.8 46 8 5 -5.3 44 61 9 4
36
 Wisconsin 10.4 31 70.7 28 9 5 -7.2 34 49 8 6
37
 USC 7.8 37 38.9 50 11 2 -13.2 9 15 7 6
37
 Texas 6.5 45 30.5 54 9 4 -8.5 27 19 9 4
39
 Rutgers 7.3 40 18.3 60 8 5 -6.7 38 80 9 4
40
 Penn St 10.0 32 64.1 35 7 4 -2 64 60 8 4
40
 San Diego St 8.5 36 27.6 56 8 5 -4.5 49 99 9 4
42
 Northwestern 9.2 34 16.5 61 7 6 -3.4 56 58 10 3
43
 Michigan St 3.7 57 84.9 21 9 3 -6.8 37 31 7 6
43
 Louisiana 7.4 38 27.2 57 9 4 -4.3 50 87 9 4
45
 UCLA 6.9 44 50.6 43 9 5 -4.8 47 46 9 5
46
 TCU 5.7 48 64.7 33 6 7 -6.3 39 27 7 6
46
 Bowling Green 6.2 46 68.8 30 8 5 -3.2 59 119 8 5
48
 Baylor 7.2 41 70.0 29 6 7 -0.7 68 4 8 5
49
 Nevada 4.1 55 72.4 27 9 4 -5.9 42 120 7 6
50
 Syracuse 5.2 52 97.2 19 5 8 1 79 39 8 5
51
 Georgia Tech 5.3 51 67.1 31 8 6 -5.3 44 47 7 7
52
 Kent St 8.6 35 -22.0 80 7 7 -0.9 67 117 11 3
53
 Virginia Tech 2.2 63 43.6 47 10 3 -7.6 33 37 7 6
54
 Mississippi St 6.2 46 -5.5 75 9 4 -6 41 52 8 5
55
 West Virginia 1.4 67 29.5 55 10 3 -8.2 30 28 7 6
56
 Arizona 2.8 59 27.2 58 7 6 -3.4 56 12 8 5
56
 Pittsburgh 5.5 50 59.5 38 7 6 -3.4 56 59 6 7
58
 ULM 4.7 54 14.0 63 8 5 -2.7 61 108 8 5
59
 Toledo 3.2 58 -27.9 85 7 6 -3.9 54 97 9 4
60
 WKU 2.7 60 38.7 51 10 3 -3.2 59 102 7 6
61
 NC State 2.5 61 16.5 62 7 6 -2.5 62 69 7 6
62
 Ole Miss 3.8 56 47.9 44 7 6 2.7 87 6 7 6
63
 Ball St 1.6 65 -5.1 74 7 6 2 83 74 9 4
64
 Marshall -2.2 79 77.7 24 5 7 0.7 75 95 5 7
65
 Tennessee 0.5 70 4.6 70 7 5 -5.7 43 33 5 7
66
 Air Force -1.6 77 9.5 67 9 4 -5.2 46 121 6 7
67
 SMU 4.9 53 -28.8 86 5 8 -0.7 68 73 7 6
68
 Navy -0.7 75 -25.6 84 6 7 -2 64 98 8 5
68
 Troy 0.1 71 55.2 40 6 6 0.9 77 109 5 7
70
 UTSA 2.4 62 10.5 65 3 6 6.7 104 123 8 4
71
 East Carolina -0.2 73 -22.2 81 7 6 0.3 73 107 8 5
72
 Western Michigan -0.3 74 43.3 48 6 6 -2.5 62 114 4 8
73
 Washington -0.1 72 -2.1 72 4 9 0.9 77 29 7 6
74
 Houston -3.6 84 -3.4 73 7 5 -4.3 50 105 5 7
75
 Utah 1.6 66 -39.0 90 7 5 -3.9 55 41 5 7
76
 Rice 1.9 64 1.5 71 4 9 5.3 97 113 7 6
77
 Miami, Fl 0.9 68 -46.3 92 5 7 0.8 76 17 7 5
78
 Purdue -2.5 80 -13.5 77 7 6 -1.1 66 57 6 7
78
 Middle Tennessee -1.4 76 -48.1 93 7 5 2.9 88 103 8 4
80
 Connecticut -2.1 78 8.4 69 5 7 -0.5 71 78 5 7
81
 Arkansas -6.9 97 10.3 66 6 6 -4 52 13 4 8
82
 Virginia -6.2 91 43.2 49 5 7 1.4 82 35 4 8
83
 Central Michigan -3.5 83 -39.2 91 6 7 1.2 81 118 7 6
84
 Missouri -2.7 82 -34.3 87 5 7 0.3 73 2 5 7
85
 Iowa St 0.6 69 -78.0 108 3 9 1.1 80 11 6 7
86
 Minnesota -2.6 81 -37.2 89 4 9 4.3 94 56 6 7
87
 Buffalo -7.3 99 12.2 64 4 8 5.1 96 72 4 8
88
 Duke -4.5 86 -60.0 98 4 9 3.5 91 34 6 7
88
 Iowa -3.6 85 -71.2 103 7 5 0.1 72 44 4 8
88
 Indiana -4.5 88 -21.5 79 4 8 4 93 54 4 8
91
 USF -6.8 95 -34.3 88 6 6 -0.6 70 26 3 9
92
 North Texas -6.9 96 -22.6 82 3 9 5.3 97 76 4 8
92
 FIU -6.7 94 -19.2 78 2 10 3 89 83 3 9
94
 Temple -6.5 92 -115.2 115 2 9 2.5 85 55 4 7
95
 Army -11.1 110 8.9 68 3 9 3.5 91 84 2 10
96
 UAB -9.3 102 -8.2 76 3 9 8.5 105 77 3 9
97
 California -10.1 106 -50.0 95 4 8 2.5 85 5 3 9
98
 Memphis -5.8 90 -65.3 99 2 10 11 113 94 4 8
99
 Maryland -7.1 98 -52.1 96 2 10 9.5 109 42 4 8
100
 Wyoming -6.6 93 -79.7 109 5 7 5.9 102 82 4 8
101
 Colorado St -9.1 101 -66.6 101 3 9 8.6 106 75 4 8
102
 New Mexico -4.5 86 -74.0 104 3 10 9.5 109 111 4 9
103
 UTEP -8.6 100 -67.7 102 5 7 5.5 100 63 3 9
103
 Miami, Oh -11.6 111 -82.4 110 3 9 5 95 67 4 8
103
 Texas St -4.9 89 -105.0 113 4 8 11.2 114 101 4 8
106
 Auburn -9.7 104 -115.5 116 4 8 2.3 84 7 3 9
107
 Wake Forest -13.3 114 -131.5 118 4 8 5.5 100 38 5 7
108
 Akron -9.6 103 -22.8 83 2 10 12.1 116 79 1 11
109
 Washington St -13.3 113 -66.4 100 3 9 9.4 108 22 3 9
110
 Florida Atlantic -10.3 107 -55.4 97 2 10 13.5 118 85 3 9
111
 Boston College -9.8 105 -106.6 114 3 9 5.3 97 25 2 10
112
 Illinois -15.4 116 -90.9 111 5 7 3.4 90 36 2 10
113
 South Alabama -11.0 109 -49.5 94 3 10 10 112 112 2 11
114
 UNLV -10.6 108 -77.3 107 4 9 8.7 107 91 2 11
114
 Hawaii -14.5 115 -75.5 105 2 10 12.5 117 93 3 9
116
 Kentucky -13.1 112 -76.0 106 3 9 9.8 111 9 2 10
117
 Southern Miss -18.2 120 -103.7 112 3 9 5.9 102 65 0 12
118
 Eastern Michigan -16.3 117 -144.0 120 1 11 11.8 115 71 2 10
119
 Tulane -17.0 118 -163.1 122 1 11 14.7 120 66 2 10
120
 Kansas -17.8 119 -121.5 117 2 10 14.3 119 1 1 11
121
 New Mexico St -20.8 121 -140.8 119 2 10 15.1 121 100 1 11
122
 Idaho -26.6 122 -159.2 121 3 9 17.2 122 64 1 11
123
 Massachusetts -27.5 123 -183.1 123 0 12 22.3 124 81 1 11
124
 Colorado -28.2 124 -185.8 124 2 10 19.9 123 16 1 11


As you can see here from above, three teams stood above the rest of the country in these crucial categories. Alabama, Oregon and Florida State were the only three teams in the entire country that were favored in each of their games last year while their ppg differential were #1, #2 and #3 as well. Florida St actually outgained their opponents by nearly 20 ypg more than what Alabama did, but the Crimson Tide did play a tougher schedule. All three teams were favored in Las Vegas by an avg of 24 ppg or more while the next closest (LSU) was nearly a touchdown away.

At the bottom of the chart is Colorado, who finished last in ppg and ypg differential, but it should be noted that they played a much tougher schedule than Massachusetts who came in at #123. 0-12 Southern Miss actually finished up a couple of teams due to their ypg and ppg differential which weren’t as bad as some teams who won a couple of games.

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