Stock Market Indicator

For several years in my NFL magazine I produced an article called Slipping and Sliding. That article details how NFL teams do after a marked 1-year difference in their wins and losses from the previous year and it had great success (download last year’s NFL slipping and sliding article).

When I tried to plug this system in for college football, it did not have the same results as in college ball, teams’ records fluctuate more and there is not as much parity. The college system I devised 6 years ago was built on a longer term. What I did was took a 2-year result record vs the previous year’s win total and it got me to the NFL-type percentages. 

For example, last year Ohio St had a Stock Market Indicator of 5.5 (Bull Market). The 5.5 was calculated by taking their average win total from 2009-2010, which was 11.5 (11-2 in ’09, 12-1 in ’10) and then subtracting their wins from 2011 (just 6) which got me the 5.5. The +5.5 means that after two great seasons in ’09-‘10, the Buckeyes clearly underperformed in 2011 and were poised for a big bounce back last year (Bull Market). My Stock Market Indicator proved to be spot on as the Buckeyes were the Most Improved Team in the country going 12-0 in ’12!
Last year in my blog, 18 teams that had a +3.5 Stock Market Indicator or more and of those 18 teams, 15 improved their record, just two had a weaker record and one remained the same. That 16 out of 18 success rate translated into 88.9% last year!

Like all of my charts in my magazine, it is a two-way street with my formulas so naturally there are teams with a negative Stock Market Indicator (Bear Market).  For example, last year Southern Miss had a Stock Market indicator of -4.5. The -4.5 was derived from their average win total in ’09-’10 (7.5) and then subtracted their 12 wins in 2011, which got me the -4.5. After arguably the best season in school history in 2011, the Golden Eagles were due for a fall and fall they did as they became the first team in NCAA history to go from 12 wins to 12 losses in a span of a year!  

I had only been doing the totals over the last couple of years but last year developed a formula to help me go back to 1990 and check the results. I was quite surprised. Since 1990 there have been a total of 18 teams that had a +6 Stock Market Indicator meaning that the prior year’s win total was 6 wins less than the average of the 2 years prior. Of those 18 teams, 17 improved their record while one stayed the same and it was dramatic improvement going from a combined 53-154 (25.6%) to a combined 102-111 (47.9%). I had expected to see a drastic drop off in the numbers at the next level but surprisingly did not. Teams in the +5.5 category improved their record at a 12-2-2 clip. There were 30 instances of teams being +5 in the Stock Market Indicator category since 1990 and those teams were 22-7-1 (77%). The totals for +4.5 went 31-10-3 (77%, 4-0 LY) and when the total got to the +4 Stock Market Indicator, it surprisingly went back up to 38-8-4 (84%), which was superior to the individual +4.5 and +5 range. The numbers did drop to 77% for a +3.5 net wins, 75% for +3 and down to 69% for +2.5. However, just when you thought the trend would get lower, surprisingly +2.0 had a 73.5% success rate. Even teams that had a +1.5 Stock Market Indicator from the prior two years, went up 65% of the time.

Summing it all up, I will put it into 3 categories. Teams with a +6.0 Stock Market Indicator or higher were a perfect 17-0-1 (100%). Teams in the +4 to +5.5 range were 103-27-10 (80.7%). Teams in the +1.5 to +3.5 two-year Stock Market Indicator range were 303-143-48 (71.0%). Overall, of the teams since 1990 that had a +1.5 Stock Market Indicator or higher; 423 improved their record, 170 had a weaker record and 59 had the same record meaning 73.9% of the time, teams in that category improved or had the same record.

This year there are an amazing 4 teams that fall into the 100% bracket of +6 on the two-year Stock Market Indicator. First, South Alabama comes in at 6.0 and Arkansas comes in at 6.5. Auburn had a combined record of 22-5 in 2010 and 2011 for an average of 11 wins per season and last year had just 3 (This year Stock’s Market Indicator reads at +8!). Also in this group is Southern Miss who has a 23-year high Stock Market Indicator of an amazing 10.0 after going winless last year! Below is a list of all teams that are calling for a Bull Market this year including 15 teams with a +4 Stock Market Indicator or more meaning they have an 84% chance of maintaining or improving their record this year.

2013’s Bull Market Teams

Like all of my charts I put in my magazine, there is a two-way street to this Stock Market Indicator. When I reviewed the numbers since 1990, it was surprising that team’s with a -4.5 Stock Market Indicator or lower, which was a much greater sampling than the -7 or lower actually achieved a better percentage. While two teams managed to improve their record at the very top of the chart, none did in -6.5 or -6.0. In fact of teams that had a -6.0 Stock Market Indicator or lower, only 2 managed to improve their record. In 2003 Navy which went from 8-5 to 10-2 and 2000 South Carolina which went from 8-4 to 9-3. The biggest drop offs came in 1998. Tulane had a -7.5 Stock Market Indicator and went from 12-0 to 3-8. Interestingly in 1998 I called for Washington St to go from a Rose Bowl to last place in the Pac-10 - which they did and in the 2 year Stock Market Indicator they were -6.0 and went from 10-2 to 3-8. Others that achieved large drop offs were 2008 Ball St which went from 12-2 to 2-10 with a -6 Stock Market Indicator and 1996 Army which went from 10-2 to 4-7 with a -5.5 Stock Market Indicator. In 2011, Miami, Oh topped this list with a -8.5 Stock Market indicator and plummeted from 10-4 in 2010 with a MAC Championship to just 4-8 in 2011. Last year, naturally Southern Miss had the large drop-off as mentioned above and of the 9 teams that had a -4.5 Stock Market Indicator or below, 7 saw their record drop and 2 saw their stay the same for a perfect 100% success rate!

A look at the 2-year Stock Market Indicator shows a power trend of basically 79% if teams have a -2.0 Stock Market Indicator or less since 1990. Unlike the above positive Market Indicator, there were actually two teams that bucked the trend with a -7.5 or -7 and improved but overall the chart has higher percentages. Teams that had a Stock Market Indicator of -5 or lower had a weaker or the same record the next year 91% of the time with 76 having a weaker record, only 8 managing to improve and 5 having the same record. Even teams with a Stock Market Indicator of -3.0 to -4.5 were in a 78% category having a weaker record 168 times and improving the record just 51 and the same record 21 times. Unlike the positive Market Indicator, I was not pleased with the results of -1.5 so the chart really should be cut off at 2.0. The teams in the -2.0 to -2.5 Stock Market Indicator had a weaker or same record the next year 73.7% of the time.

Bottom line is that a 91% trend of a weaker or same record if teams have a -5 indicator or less, -3 to -4.5 is 78% and -2 to -2.5 74%. Overall, teams that had -2 Stock Market Indicator or lower had the weaker or the same record basically 79% of the time.

The teams this year that have trends going in a downward Bear direction at the top of that chart in the 90% category are San Jose St, which was 6-19 the prior 2 years for an average of 3 wins per season and improved to 11-2 last year giving them a Stock Market Indicator of -8. Kent St had a record of 10-14 the previous 2 years or an average of 5 wins per seasons and improved to 11-3 last year (-6 Stock Market Indicator).

Here is a complete listing of all of this year’s teams with a Bear Market in their forecast:

2013’s Bear Market Teams

ONLY 84 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!