Upset Meter

A couple of months ago, I was wondering if there was any value in predicting future success/failure for teams that pulled a bunch of upsets a year prior and on the flip side teams that were upset numerous times in the previous year.

My hypothesis going into my research was that teams that pulled many upsets the previous year would be overvalued and see their record get weaker the following year as teams would take them more seriously and the experts in Las Vegas would adjust their lines. Similarly, teams that were upset numerous times as favorites the previous year would be undervalued and would see their record improve.

The results coincided with my original predictions as in the last six years, teams that pulled 3 or more net upsets (upset wins-upset losses) the previous year would see their record get weaker or stay the same 52 out of 64 times for a 81% success rate.

Here are the teams that benefited from 3 or more net upset wins last year and have an 81% chance of seeing their record either get weaker or stay the same in 2013.

Going Down in 2013?
(81% chance last 6 years)

Kent St had a magical 2012 season as they won 11 games for the first time in school history. In their season they upset Buffalo (+3'), Ball St (+2'), Rutgers (+13') and Bowling Green (+2') and won all 7 of their games that they were a favorite in. Unfortunately that means they could be heading for a weaker season in 2013 as they may be overvalued. Washington who went just 7-6 last year was a bit of a surprise on this list. The Huskies were only a favorite in 4 games last year and won each of those. They also pulled 3 upsets as they beat Stanford (+6'), Oregon St (+3) and Utah (+1').

Although not as strong, on the opposite end, teams that had a -3 or more net upset rate the previous year would either see their record improve or stay the same on 41 out on 60 occasions for a 68% success rate.

Here are the teams that unfortunately were -3 or more in net upsets last year meaning that they were upset as a favorite more than they pulled upsets. On the positive side for 2013, these teams have a 68% chance of seeing their improve or stay the same this year.

Going Up in 2013?
(68% chance last 6 years)

Most of these teams were underachievers in 2012 and it comes as no surprise that USC tops this list as the preseason AP #1 team clearly underachieved last year. The Trojans were favored in 11 of their 13 games and lost both times they were an underdog (Oregon and Notre Dame). They were upset 4 times against Stanford (-7'), Arizona (-6'), UCLA (-4) and Georgia Tech (-7') but on the positive side have a 68% chance of improving this year according to the Upset Meter.

While teams that benefited from 2 net upset wins did not have any significant data (28-27 51% last six years), teams that suffered from -2 net upsets have seen their record either stay the same or get better at a 64% clip.

Here are the teams that have a 64% chance of seeing their record get better or stay the same in 2013.

Also Going Up in 2013?
(64% chance last 6 years)

Along with TO’s = Turnaround, YPP Factor, my Stock Market Indicator, the Upset Meter is yet another way in determining the future success or failure in evaluating teams for the upcoming season.

ONLY 71 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!