| Daily Blog •June 26, 2013 |
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Today’s blog takes at look at my computer’s projected stats for the Mountain West, American Athletic, Pac-12 and ACC! Each team has their rush off/def, pass off/def, and points off/def projected averages for the season as well as their ppg and ypg differences. Each conference is sorted by the ppg difference for the entire season and not just for conference games.
Mountain West
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF | PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Fresno St | 156.9 | 355.7 | 37.9 | 126.5 | 203.7 | 24.2 | 182.4 (6) | 13.7 (16) |
| Boise St | 167.9 | 280.8 | 30.5 | 146.1 | 189.7 | 22.7 | 112.9 (26) | 7.8 (36) |
| Utah St | 187.3 | 243.9 | 31.1 | 137.3 | 223.1 | 22.2 | 70.8 (45) | 8.9 (30) |
| San Jose St | 112.8 | 320.6 | 32.2 | 150.7 | 234.3 | 27.8 | 48.4 (53) | 4.4 (51) |
| San Diego St | 175.9 | 196.6 | 27.2 | 122 | 248.5 | 25.7 | 1.9 (77) | 1.5 (66) |
| Colorado St | 163.4 | 241 | 30.1 | 193.2 | 222.6 | 30.3 | -11.4 (81) | -0.3 (75) |
| Air Force | 275.8 | 126.6 | 27.2 | 207.4 | 209.2 | 27.8 | -14.3 (84) | -0.6 (78) |
| UNLV | 146.3 | 256.5 | 28.3 | 201.6 | 224.7 | 30.3 | -23.5 (86) | -2.0 (83) |
| Nevada | 208.5 | 225.7 | 29.6 | 186.3 | 289.5 | 36.4 | -41.6 (96) | -6.8 (104) |
| Hawaii | 96.7 | 250.8 | 26.5 | 188.3 | 228.5 | 33.8 | -69.3 (104) | -7.2 (108) |
| Wyoming | 118.9 | 277.6 | 26.5 | 207.6 | 260.6 | 34.8 | -71.8 (108) | -8.3 (110) |
| New Mexico | 240.7 | 133.1 | 23.7 | 190.4 | 282.1 | 35.3 | -98.8 (116) | -11.6 (119) |
There is no doubt that Boise St has been the dominant team in the WAC and Mountain West conferences in the last decade, however this year my computer projects Fresno State to be the more impressive team statistically. Keep in mind my computer takes into consideration who each team plays and the Broncos play a tougher schedule this year than the Bulldogs. Last year, Fresno St outscored its opponents by an avg of 37.9-23.8 and this year my computer is calling for nearly identical results at 37.9-24.2 ppg. The Bulldogs outgained their opponents last year by a 478-339 advantage and this year it is calling for a 513-330 yard advantage.
American Athletic
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF | PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Louisville | 153.2 | 349.5 | 36.6 | 103.7 | 198.8 | 20.9 | 200.2 (5) | 15.7 (10) |
| Cincinnati | 184.8 | 266.8 | 32.8 | 115.5 | 251.9 | 23.6 | 84.2 (38) | 9.3 (26) |
| Houston | 150.4 | 339.5 | 34.4 | 181.6 | 249.9 | 32.2 | 58.5 (51) | 2.2 (63) |
| Rutgers | 150.4 | 254.9 | 26.6 | 103.6 | 265.8 | 24.1 | 35.9 (60) | 2.6 (59) |
| UCF | 149.9 | 279.1 | 30.6 | 151.5 | 249 | 28.3 | 28.6 (64) | 2.3 (61) |
| Connecticut | 136.4 | 235.2 | 25.8 | 121.7 | 237 | 24.3 | 12.8 (71) | 1.5 (68) |
| USF | 178.5 | 201.3 | 27.7 | 108.3 | 268.9 | 22.2 | 2.7 (75) | 5.5 (45) |
| Memphis | 141.5 | 217.9 | 25.2 | 137.8 | 251.3 | 29.6 | -29.8 (90) | -4.4 (93) |
| SMU | 87 | 289.9 | 26.7 | 172.2 | 257 | 32.7 | -52.3 (98) | -6.0 (100) |
| Temple | 133.9 | 205.4 | 24.1 | 176.8 | 272 | 33.3 | -109.5 (118) | -9.2 (114) |
There is no doubt who the preseason favorite is in the AAC this year, it is the defending Sugar Bowl champion Louisville Cardinals. Last year the Cardinals only outscored their opponents by an avg of 31.2-23.8 and outgained them by a 419-340 yard margin. This year’s team figures to be more dominant statistically as my computer projects them to outscore their opponents by a 36.6-20.9 mark and outgain them by 200 ypg, which is 5th best in the entire country. I did find it surprising that SMU, a team I picked to finish 5th in the conference is actually 9th in these computer projected stats. However, keep in mind the Mustangs must play Texas Tech, Texas A&M and TCU in non-conference action which is arguably the toughest slate among AAC teams.
Pac-12
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF | PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Oregon | 283.2 | 275 | 42.9 | 120 | 203 | 21.4 | 235.3 (3) | 21.5 (3) |
| USC | 202 | 275.3 | 35.4 | 78.3 | 253.1 | 19.3 | 146.0 (15) | 16.1 (9) |
| Arizona St | 178.8 | 281.6 | 32.3 | 128 | 204.3 | 23.4 | 128.2 (21) | 8.9 (31) |
| Washington | 182.6 | 266.4 | 31.5 | 114.4 | 224.5 | 22.4 | 110.2 (27) | 9.1 (29) |
| Stanford | 167.5 | 242.8 | 28.5 | 93.4 | 210.1 | 16.8 | 106.8 (30) | 11.7 (22) |
| Oregon St | 138.8 | 302.3 | 33.2 | 113.6 | 241.3 | 23.5 | 86.2 (37) | 9.7 (24) |
| Arizona | 226.9 | 251.8 | 33.2 | 154.8 | 265.9 | 29 | 57.9 (52) | 4.1 (53) |
| UCLA | 151.5 | 297.2 | 30.6 | 154.4 | 258.2 | 29.1 | 36.1 (59) | 1.5 (66) |
| California | 108.2 | 262 | 23.7 | 148.8 | 271 | 29.2 | -49.5 (97) | -5.5 (96) |
| Utah | 112.3 | 227.5 | 22.9 | 156.9 | 240 | 29 | -57.1 (101) | -6.1 (101) |
| Wash St | 71.5 | 291.8 | 24.7 | 160.2 | 267.3 | 31.6 | -64.3 (103) | -6.9 (105) |
| Colorado | 98.9 | 233.9 | 25.2 | 211.2 | 286.1 | 39.5 | -164.6 (123) | -14.3 (123) |
The Ducks have statistically one of the most dominant teams in the entire country in the last three years and for the upcoming season my computer projects that to remain the same as it is calling for them to outgain their opponents by an avg of 235 ypg and outscore them by an avg of 21.5 ppg, which both rank #3 in the country. If you have followed my preseason predictions in the last couple of weeks, it should come as no surprise that USC is next in line in the Pac-12 as my computer calls for them to outgain their opponents by 146 ypg and outscore them by 16.1 ppg. Overall, the conference is very deep this year as six teams are in the top 31 when it comes to ppg difference.
ACC
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF | PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Florida St | 224.3 | 310.5 | 44 | 108.6 | 161.8 | 14.1 | 264.4 (2) | 29.9 (1) |
| Clemson | 192.4 | 329.9 | 39.5 | 149.5 | 223.5 | 24.1 | 149.2 (13) | 15.4 (12) |
| Virginia Tech | 192 | 245.2 | 32.9 | 110.4 | 190.1 | 19.7 | 136.8 (18) | 13.3 (17) |
| Miami, Fl | 199.5 | 309.8 | 36.7 | 172.5 | 221.3 | 27.3 | 115.4 (24) | 9.4 (25) |
| Georgia Tech | 332.1 | 148 | 34.4 | 140.4 | 231.3 | 27.6 | 108.4 (28) | 6.7 (39) |
| N Carolina | 156.2 | 321.5 | 34.7 | 171.6 | 228.2 | 29.3 | 77.8 (41) | 5.4 (46) |
| Virginia | 165.2 | 270.5 | 28.9 | 176 | 211.4 | 28.5 | 48.3 (54) | 0.4 (74) |
| NC State | 128.4 | 304.8 | 31.4 | 134.3 | 264.6 | 27.2 | 34.3 (61) | 4.2 (52) |
| Syracuse | 167.2 | 241.4 | 27.1 | 161.7 | 243.4 | 28.9 | 3.6 (73) | -1.8 (81) |
| Pittsburgh | 134.4 | 231.5 | 25 | 165.8 | 206 | 29.3 | -5.9 (79) | -4.3 (92) |
| Boston College | 139.1 | 253.1 | 26.6 | 164.4 | 235.8 | 27 | -7.9 (80) | -0.4 (76) |
| Duke | 204.2 | 202.6 | 32.1 | 184.7 | 257.9 | 33.5 | -35.8 (92) | -1.4 (79) |
| Maryland | 130.4 | 231.5 | 28 | 155.3 | 247.8 | 28.6 | -41.1 (95) | -0.6 (77) |
| Wake Forest | 186.2 | 175.5 | 23 | 165 | 250.6 | 31.9 | -53.9 (99) | -8.9 (112) |
Last year, Florida St was the dominant team in the ACC as they outscored their opponents by a 39.3-14.7 average and outgained them by a 472-254 mark. This year my computer is actually calling for them to improve upon those marks and be one of the most dominant teams in the country statistically. Their +264 ypg difference is good enough for #2 in the country and their 44-14.1 ppg difference is actually #1. It should come to no surprise that Clemson is next in line as the Tigers are projected to outgain their opponents by 149 ypg and outscore them by 15 ppg, which is similar to last year’s stats.
Tomorrow, I will give you my computer projected stats for the Big 12, Big 10 and SEC.