Daily Blog •June 27, 2013

Today’s blog takes at look at my computer’s projected stats for the Big 12, Big 10  and SEC! Each team has their rush off/def, pass off/def, and points off/def projected averages for the season as well as their ppg and ypg differences. Each conference is sorted by the ppg difference for the entire season and not just for conference games.

Big 12

  OFF OFF OFF DEF DEF DEF
YPG DIFF
PPG DIFF
  RUSH PASS PTS RUSH PASS PTS (Nat'l Rank) (Nat'l Rank)
Oklahoma St 151.2 384.4 42.4 131.4 229 23.3 175.2 (8) 19.1 (5)
Texas 200 317.3 40.1 135.2 209.2 23.3 172.9 (9) 16.8 (8)
Oklahoma 209.4 302.9 40.2 168.7 235.5 26.2 108.1 (29) 14.1 (14)
TCU 191.3 260.6 33.4 102.6 214.2 20.8 135.1 (19) 12.6 (19)
Baylor 223.7 293.5 39 171 274.7 32.7 71.5 (44) 6.3 (42)
Texas Tech 110.8 357.4 36.1 148.1 257.5 30.3 62.6 (47) 5.9 (44)
Kansas St 228.8 197.8 33 162.2 256.7 30.6 7.8 (72) 2.4 (60)
West Virginia 181.5 322.3 29.5 154.2 262.2 35.5 87.3 (36) -6.1 (101)
Iowa St 148.9 202.1 24.9 219.8 293.8 34.1 -162.6 (122) -9.2 (113)
Kansas 192 207.8 25.8 169.3 303.5 35.7 -72.9 (109) -9.9 (116)

You can see here why I projected both Texas and Oklahoma State in my preseason Top 10 as both teams rank in the Top 10 in the country according to my computer projections when it comes to outgaining their foes and outscoring them. The Cowboys lead the way as my computer projects them to outgain their foes by 175.2 ypg (last year +125 ypg) and outscore them by 19.1 ppg (last year 17.5). My computer and I believe the Longhorns will be one of the most improved teams in the country this year. Last year they only outscored foes by an avg of 6.5 ppg and outgained them by only 31 ypg but this year my computer projects them to outgain their foes by 173 ypg and outscore them by 16.8 ppg.   

Big 10

  OFF OFF OFF DEF DEF DEF YPG DIFF PPG DIFF
  RUSH PASS PTS RUSH PASS PTS (Nat'l Rank) (Nat'l Rank)
Ohio St 260 266.9 41.3 114.2 204 21.2 208.7 (4) 20.1 (4)
Nebraska 256 270.8 40.6 159.5 194.7 23.6 172.7 (10) 17.0 (7)
Wisconsin 266 214.3 36.1 105.2 218.2 20.5 156.9 (11) 15.6 (11)
Michigan 184.3 268.6 36.4 142.3 232.3 23.2 78.3 (40) 13.2 (18)
Michigan St 165.8 252.2 26.8 94.9 201.4 19.3 121.8 (23) 7.5 (38)
Penn St 201.2 265.1 31.8 140.2 234.3 25.4 91.8 (33) 6.4 (41)
Northwestern 170.1 248.5 31.1 147.8 240.2 27.3 30.6 (63) 3.8 (54)
Minnesota 173.3 208.6 26.7 170.7 228.2 28.6 -17.1 (85) -1.9 (82)
Indiana 127.8 336.8 34.9 224.6 236.8 37.2 3.2 (74) -2.3 (85)
Iowa 164.5 186.8 23.1 152 231.4 27.3 -32.2 (91) -4.2 (90)
Illinois 135.5 222.6 24.3 190 239.3 31.3 -71.2 (106) -7.0 (107)
Purdue 111.2 246 24.4 198.4 239.9 33 -81.0 (113) -8.6 (111)

The Buckeyes are my pick to win the Big 10 and play in the National Title game this year and my computer also thinks very highly of them statistically. After outscoring foes by 14.4 ppg and outgaining them by 64 ypg last year, my computer is forecasting a stronger Buckeye team this year as it calls for them to outscore their opponents by 20.1 ppg and outgain them by 209 ypg, both 4th best in the country. Next in line are Nebraska and Wisconsin who both statistically rank in the Top 11 in both categories when it comes to ypg and ppg.

SEC

  OFF OFF OFF DEF DEF DEF YPG DIFF PPG DIFF
  RUSH PASS PTS RUSH PASS PTS (Nat'l Rank) (Nat'l Rank)
Alabama 225 286.9 37 73.7 157.6 13.3 280.5 (1) 23.7 (2)
Texas A&M 211.1 333.1 41.5 167.6 229.8 24 146.8 (14) 17.5 (6)
Mississippi 209 279.8 36.1 116.5 222 22.2 150.3 (12) 13.9 (15)
Georgia 213.3 321.2 39 164.6 236.3 27.4 133.6 (20) 11.6 (23)
S Carolina 152.5 288.2 32.7 126.2 222.9 23.4 91.6 (34) 9.3 (27)
LSU 203.8 254.5 32.1 126 206.5 23 125.8 (22) 9.1 (28)
Vanderbilt 178.7 222.2 31.5 153.7 213.1 23.6 34.1 (62) 7.9 (35)
Florida 177.5 240.7 29 131.4 204.1 22.6 82.7 (39) 6.3 (43)
Tennessee 198.1 241.6 31.5 144.8 232.9 26.6 62.0 (48) 4.9 (48)
Auburn 146.6 237.5 27.9 166.2 231.2 25.1 -13.3 (83) 2.8 (57)
Missouri 161.7 298.4 32.9 154.1 268.3 30.4 37.8 (57) 2.6 (58)
Arkansas 158.2 243.7 27.1 127.5 257.6 25.5 16.8 (67) 1.7 (65)
Miss St 168.8 236.5 26 135 254.7 28.9 15.6 (68) -2.9 (88)
Kentucky 118.9 228 23 143.4 260.5 29.8 -57.0 (100) -6.8 (103)

In the Nick Saban era, the Crimson Tide have went from outscoring their opponents by an avg of 5.1 ppg in 2007, 15.8 ppg in 2008, 20.4 ppg in 2009, 22.2 ppg in 2010, 26.6 ppg in 2011 and 27.8 ppg last year remarkably showing improvement each year. While my computer “only” projects them to outscore their opponents by 23.7 ppg this year, that is still good enough for 2nd best in the country and it does call for them to outgain their foes by 280.5 ypg (196 ypg last year, 246 in 2011), which is the best in the country. Texas A&M is 2nd and surprisingly Ole Miss, not Georgia, South Carolina, LSU or Florida is next as my computer calls for the Rebels to outscore their opponents by 13.9 ppg and outgain them by 150 ypg.   

ONLY 63 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!