| Daily Blog •June 27, 2013 |
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Today’s blog takes at look at my computer’s projected stats for the Big 12, Big 10 and SEC! Each team has their rush off/def, pass off/def, and points off/def projected averages for the season as well as their ppg and ypg differences. Each conference is sorted by the ppg difference for the entire season and not just for conference games.
Big 12
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF |
PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Oklahoma St | 151.2 | 384.4 | 42.4 | 131.4 | 229 | 23.3 | 175.2 (8) | 19.1 (5) |
| Texas | 200 | 317.3 | 40.1 | 135.2 | 209.2 | 23.3 | 172.9 (9) | 16.8 (8) |
| Oklahoma | 209.4 | 302.9 | 40.2 | 168.7 | 235.5 | 26.2 | 108.1 (29) | 14.1 (14) |
| TCU | 191.3 | 260.6 | 33.4 | 102.6 | 214.2 | 20.8 | 135.1 (19) | 12.6 (19) |
| Baylor | 223.7 | 293.5 | 39 | 171 | 274.7 | 32.7 | 71.5 (44) | 6.3 (42) |
| Texas Tech | 110.8 | 357.4 | 36.1 | 148.1 | 257.5 | 30.3 | 62.6 (47) | 5.9 (44) |
| Kansas St | 228.8 | 197.8 | 33 | 162.2 | 256.7 | 30.6 | 7.8 (72) | 2.4 (60) |
| West Virginia | 181.5 | 322.3 | 29.5 | 154.2 | 262.2 | 35.5 | 87.3 (36) | -6.1 (101) |
| Iowa St | 148.9 | 202.1 | 24.9 | 219.8 | 293.8 | 34.1 | -162.6 (122) | -9.2 (113) |
| Kansas | 192 | 207.8 | 25.8 | 169.3 | 303.5 | 35.7 | -72.9 (109) | -9.9 (116) |
You can see here why I projected both Texas and Oklahoma State in my preseason Top 10 as both teams rank in the Top 10 in the country according to my computer projections when it comes to outgaining their foes and outscoring them. The Cowboys lead the way as my computer projects them to outgain their foes by 175.2 ypg (last year +125 ypg) and outscore them by 19.1 ppg (last year 17.5). My computer and I believe the Longhorns will be one of the most improved teams in the country this year. Last year they only outscored foes by an avg of 6.5 ppg and outgained them by only 31 ypg but this year my computer projects them to outgain their foes by 173 ypg and outscore them by 16.8 ppg.
Big 10
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF | PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Ohio St | 260 | 266.9 | 41.3 | 114.2 | 204 | 21.2 | 208.7 (4) | 20.1 (4) |
| Nebraska | 256 | 270.8 | 40.6 | 159.5 | 194.7 | 23.6 | 172.7 (10) | 17.0 (7) |
| Wisconsin | 266 | 214.3 | 36.1 | 105.2 | 218.2 | 20.5 | 156.9 (11) | 15.6 (11) |
| Michigan | 184.3 | 268.6 | 36.4 | 142.3 | 232.3 | 23.2 | 78.3 (40) | 13.2 (18) |
| Michigan St | 165.8 | 252.2 | 26.8 | 94.9 | 201.4 | 19.3 | 121.8 (23) | 7.5 (38) |
| Penn St | 201.2 | 265.1 | 31.8 | 140.2 | 234.3 | 25.4 | 91.8 (33) | 6.4 (41) |
| Northwestern | 170.1 | 248.5 | 31.1 | 147.8 | 240.2 | 27.3 | 30.6 (63) | 3.8 (54) |
| Minnesota | 173.3 | 208.6 | 26.7 | 170.7 | 228.2 | 28.6 | -17.1 (85) | -1.9 (82) |
| Indiana | 127.8 | 336.8 | 34.9 | 224.6 | 236.8 | 37.2 | 3.2 (74) | -2.3 (85) |
| Iowa | 164.5 | 186.8 | 23.1 | 152 | 231.4 | 27.3 | -32.2 (91) | -4.2 (90) |
| Illinois | 135.5 | 222.6 | 24.3 | 190 | 239.3 | 31.3 | -71.2 (106) | -7.0 (107) |
| Purdue | 111.2 | 246 | 24.4 | 198.4 | 239.9 | 33 | -81.0 (113) | -8.6 (111) |
The Buckeyes are my pick to win the Big 10 and play in the National Title game this year and my computer also thinks very highly of them statistically. After outscoring foes by 14.4 ppg and outgaining them by 64 ypg last year, my computer is forecasting a stronger Buckeye team this year as it calls for them to outscore their opponents by 20.1 ppg and outgain them by 209 ypg, both 4th best in the country. Next in line are Nebraska and Wisconsin who both statistically rank in the Top 11 in both categories when it comes to ypg and ppg.
SEC
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF | PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Alabama | 225 | 286.9 | 37 | 73.7 | 157.6 | 13.3 | 280.5 (1) | 23.7 (2) |
| Texas A&M | 211.1 | 333.1 | 41.5 | 167.6 | 229.8 | 24 | 146.8 (14) | 17.5 (6) |
| Mississippi | 209 | 279.8 | 36.1 | 116.5 | 222 | 22.2 | 150.3 (12) | 13.9 (15) |
| Georgia | 213.3 | 321.2 | 39 | 164.6 | 236.3 | 27.4 | 133.6 (20) | 11.6 (23) |
| S Carolina | 152.5 | 288.2 | 32.7 | 126.2 | 222.9 | 23.4 | 91.6 (34) | 9.3 (27) |
| LSU | 203.8 | 254.5 | 32.1 | 126 | 206.5 | 23 | 125.8 (22) | 9.1 (28) |
| Vanderbilt | 178.7 | 222.2 | 31.5 | 153.7 | 213.1 | 23.6 | 34.1 (62) | 7.9 (35) |
| Florida | 177.5 | 240.7 | 29 | 131.4 | 204.1 | 22.6 | 82.7 (39) | 6.3 (43) |
| Tennessee | 198.1 | 241.6 | 31.5 | 144.8 | 232.9 | 26.6 | 62.0 (48) | 4.9 (48) |
| Auburn | 146.6 | 237.5 | 27.9 | 166.2 | 231.2 | 25.1 | -13.3 (83) | 2.8 (57) |
| Missouri | 161.7 | 298.4 | 32.9 | 154.1 | 268.3 | 30.4 | 37.8 (57) | 2.6 (58) |
| Arkansas | 158.2 | 243.7 | 27.1 | 127.5 | 257.6 | 25.5 | 16.8 (67) | 1.7 (65) |
| Miss St | 168.8 | 236.5 | 26 | 135 | 254.7 | 28.9 | 15.6 (68) | -2.9 (88) |
| Kentucky | 118.9 | 228 | 23 | 143.4 | 260.5 | 29.8 | -57.0 (100) | -6.8 (103) |
In the Nick Saban era, the Crimson Tide have went from outscoring their opponents by an avg of 5.1 ppg in 2007, 15.8 ppg in 2008, 20.4 ppg in 2009, 22.2 ppg in 2010, 26.6 ppg in 2011 and 27.8 ppg last year remarkably showing improvement each year. While my computer “only” projects them to outscore their opponents by 23.7 ppg this year, that is still good enough for 2nd best in the country and it does call for them to outgain their foes by 280.5 ypg (196 ypg last year, 246 in 2011), which is the best in the country. Texas A&M is 2nd and surprisingly Ole Miss, not Georgia, South Carolina, LSU or Florida is next as my computer calls for the Rebels to outscore their opponents by 13.9 ppg and outgain them by 150 ypg.