By Phil Steele

The Panthers are above .500 for the first time in 71 games. They also have extra rest, are at home vs at team off a bad loss across the country, and own the #3 defense. CAR has won the yardage battle in 4 of the last 5 games and are +6 FD, +85 ypg, and 16 ppg in that span albeit all vs losing teams. ATL may not have WR White who has averaged 8 rec’s (15.4) the last 3 vs CAR and RB Jackson was woeful last week vs ARZ with 6 yards (0.5). The Falcons have allowed 23 pts or more in each game this year, have allowed 141 ypg rush (5.1) the last 4 weeks and Newton rushed for 86 (9.6) and 116 (12.9) vs a better defense last year. Add in the fact that the Falcons’ #20 pass defense is allowing a 115.0 def QBR over the last 4 weeks with a 9-1 ratio and the Panthers cruise to their 4th straight win vs a foe ranked 23rd or lower in my NFL Power Ratings.

DAL is happy to return home after losing in the last seconds at DET. They now host a Vikings team travelling off back-to-back prime time games with a Thursday Night home game vs WAS on deck. Add in the Vikings fielding a different QB each of the last 3 weeks with Ponder starting vs GB last week and you have a huge challenge for a team that’s been outgained by 84 ypg on the road and outscored 29-20. Romo has been great at home with a 271 ypg avg (69%) and 11-3 ratio and he faces the #29 pass def with a 16-7 ratio. The Cowboys have yet to allow a 100 yard rusher and while their rush D ranks near the bottom their issue has been mobile QB’s (159, 8.0). With that not expected to be an issue here the Cowboys rush D is allowing 87 ypg and 4.0 ypc. The Cowboys should be able to handle a tired and reeling Vikings team.

Both Ryan brothers deserve a ton of credit for turning around bad teams from 2012 but the Jets have been aided by their schedule. Outside of the injury depleted Patriots the only team they’ve faced above .500 was CIN last week. The Bengals showed NYJ how they can be exposed in their 49-9 win sending Geno Smith to the bench after he tossed a pair of td’s to Cocker and Jones, who happen to play for CIN. Both teams rank in the top 10 in sacks but the only difference is that the Jets are #28 in sacks allowed with a rookie QB lacking confidence after getting pulled while the other side has a 7-time Pro Bowler and 2-time NFL MVP that has already played at NE and CHI getting sacked a total of 3 times. Brees has plans to return to this stadium in February and also played here last year in December in a 52-27 loss that still upsets him. Rookie Stills (3 rec, 43.0, 2 td’s) now allows TE’s Graham and Watson (comb 6 rec, 13.7, 2 td’s) to roam the middle as opposing D’s contend with Colston (324, 13.5) and Sproles (593, 16.0).

Emotions have to be high for Fisher who looks across the field at a team he took over in 1994 and coached 17 season which was then the Houston Oilers while his current team was the LA Rams. This is also the first game for TEN since the passing of AFL co-founder Bud Adams. Kellen Clemens takes over for the injured Bradford. He made his first start since game #16 in ‘11 and his 4th start since ‘09. He finished with 158 passing yards, but 2 interceptions. The Rams were in it at the end as Clemens drove them 96/13pl for a 1&gl at the 6, however, on 4&1 he fired incomplete and STL fell 14-9. Clemens is now 0-4 as a starter averaging 176 ypg. One thing is for sure is that the Rams offense is struggling avg 304 ypg with an OL allowing 20 sacks the last 6 games. Now after facing the physical Seahawks they get a physical #12 defense. The St Louis defense has been serviceable but expect a drop off with the added TOP they’ll be on the field with an offense not moving he chains. By looking at TEN’s 312 ypg and 3.8 ypc you may give the Rams a chance but the Titans have faced SIX defenses ranked in the top 8 and versus the only team outside of it (SD #23) they put up 452 yards and 170 (5.9) rushing.

This is the Chiefs’ first road game in a month. BUF is off back-to-back close losses followed by a game where they were simply outclassed on the road by the Saints. KC held off the Browns but it came at a price as RB Charles (knee) who accounts for a whopping 39% of the offense was dinged up. KC has fully taken advantage of their #32 sked having only faced 1 team (DAL) that is currently ranked in the upper half of my Power Ratings. BUF has only played 1 team in the bottom third of my Power Ratings and this is their 3rd matchup vs a top 10 team in 4 weeks. Their loss to NO isn’t really a bad thing as the Saints knew what Marrone was trying to do (he was their OC prior to HC Syracuse) and they simply had more horses than the Bills. A conservative gameplan plays to Buffalo here as they are better than their #26 ranking (#2 sacks, 58% comp, 7.4 ypa). I’ll side with the road team by a four.

Have to believe the Skins lobbied hard for a bye today as they haven’t won a football game on the Sunday preceding election day in 20 years (1992, Clinton over George H.W.). While they host SD on a cross county trip that is negated by a Chargers bye while WAS is actually at a situational disadvantage off a trip to DEN with a Thursday road game on deck. Rivers has regained his form as into the bye he led the NFL in comp % (73.9) and was #2 in yards and td’s and now he faces a pass D allowing 66% comp and the 2nd worst yards/att (8.4). Ryan Matthews has also stepped up and after totaling 234 yards the first 5 games he’s topped 100+ each of the last 2 (4.9 ypc) helping the D stay off the field (26 ppg first 5, 7.5 ppg last 2). This will be a close one.

College rematch as Pryor’s final OSU game was a Rose Bowl win over Kelly in his first season at Oregon. May have to give Philly a “home field edge” as the Eagles are 0-4 at home getting outscored 23-14 and outgained by 45 ypg. Put them on the road they are 3-1 with an avg score of 30-30, including a 52-20 loss but they are still outgaining foes 439-397. The Pryor transformation is far from a success as the offense is avg just 18 ppg on the season while avg just 288 ypg the last 4 weeks but he has led them to 2 wins the last 3 games. He is having a very Tebow-like impact the last 2 weeks with a 45.7 QBR vs KC and a 25.7 QBR vs PIT as defenses keep him in the pocket best they can. The eye-popping Raiders’ stat is that the OL has allowed 30 sacks which is 15.6% of his pass attempts despite having a mobile QB. Now both teams have defense that practice against similar systems and while Pryor is healthy, Vick looks to be out again giving Matt Barkley his first start. Vs the Giants last week he finished with 2 TO’s, 2 SOD and 3 punts on the day. With that said I’ll also back the better defensive squad that has traveled only one week in the last 6 vs PHI on a long trip.

Being off a loss is tough but add that to travelling to SEA after a loss. This, however, is a letdown spot for the Seahawks off a 14-9 MNF division win with a road trip to ATL, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs, on deck. The term letdown, however, never applies to Seattle’s defense especially at home. In CenturyLink the Seahawks are allowing 12 ppg their last 14. The Bucs had a few extra days to mull over how pitiful their 0-7 season has been and with Glennon getting sacked 10 times in 4 starts and facing a Seahawks’ team that avg 3.8 sacks/gm the last 6 there will be pressure. While the rookie played at Atlanta (Falcons #25 in sacks) the noise will be at a different level and expect the Seattle secondary to improve on their 11 interceptions which ranks #3 in the NFL as this gets out of control fast.

Technical edge to the Ravens who are 5-0 off a bye with a 28-11 average score, have beaten CLE 11 straight. However, a look at the Ravens recently shows they are 1-5 in their last 6 road games and they clearly went into their bye emotionally drained with all 4 games decided by 3 points or less and with BAL losing 3 of them. Cleveland’s #7 D was rattled in the 1H as the Browns were outgained 281-130 (FD’s 16-3) but they let the offense get back into the game by holding them to 50 yards and 4 FD’s in the 2H. The Browns went to Jason Campbell last week and he was exactly what they needed throwing for 293 yards (61%) but more importantly a 2-0 ratio. Now with Campbell making his long awaited first start at home since game #6 2011 and another week of practice he should stretch the field even more with the receivers adjusting to a third starting QB in their last 4 games. Flacco has had a wide disparity on his road/home performances hitting only 57% (64% at home) with a 5-8 ratio (3-0 home) while the Browns have picked off a pass in each home game and are allowing only 56% comp in front of the Dawg Pound.

NE’s offense is now equal with the pack. The Patriots have finished each of the last 3 seasons outscoring their opponents by double digits. This season they have only beaten one opponent by over 10 points and that was a winless TB team. New England has been OUTGAINED on the season (-16 ypg) and in their last 4 games (-54 ypg) they’ve been outgained in 3 of them and Brady has thrown for 203 ypg (52%) and a 2-4 ratio!! Looking back at 3 top 10 D’s they’ve already faced you’ll see even less production avg 258 ypg and 15 FD/gm. The Steelers are on the road for the third time in 4 weeks and off a West Coast trip. Pittsburgh also has played 5 defenses that are in the top #14 and versus the other 2 (CHI and MIN) they’ve averaged 448 ypg and 25 FD/gm and NE falls into the bottom half.

Can’t find a series that has been more dominated by the home team then this one. The host has won 6 straight. Houston returns from its bye and I expect Keenum to get a few more games under his belt. Also how do the Colts adjust their offense with Reggie Wayne out for the year? There are one of two routes for the Texans. They can refocus knowing that if they win here they are 2 games back while having the tiebreaker on both teams ahead or even with them. Or, perhaps they did what the Colts did just 2 years ago after their QB injury and go from multiple season with DD wins to 2-14 finish.