KC comes in 5-0 while OAK is 2-3 after their late night upset of San Diego on Sunday night. The schedule, however, must be factored in as KC has played the weakest in the league. The Chiefs have a remarkable streak that over the L6Y when hosting OAK they’ve BEEN UPSET ALL 6 GAMES. This is a tough spot for the Raiders with an OL that’s allowed 17 sacks in their last 4 but few people are talking about the Raiders D that has only allowed 364 ypg (257 ypg without game at DEN). Pryor hit 38-57 with a great deal of noise at IND & DEN and after 2 interceptions in the opener he hasn’t thrown any the last 3 (was inactive vs WAS). However, the Chiefs have been stopping many negative streaks this season and continue that trend here, getting their first win over the Raiders in Arrowhead since 2006.

Let’s go back to Nov 18, 2012: TB had just beaten CAR in OT and they had won 4 straight to get to 6-5 with Freeman having a 13-1 ratio. Since then they have lost 9 straight when their opponent wasn’t resting starters including all 4 this year with 3 games by a total of 6 points making it even more frustrating. Now you’re on a bye and you release your QB with numerous sources reporting that your HC has lost the team. Rookie Glennon (193 yards, 56%, 1-2) will obviously benefit with the extra work but despite playing the #32 D if they can’t do better then the 16 FD’s per game, their average, they’ll be in trouble. The honeymoon period in PHI is already over after dropping 3 straight since their opening win and last week vs the NYG they scored 17 pts off 4 NYG TO’s with a trio coming in the 4Q. The Eagles now travel for a third straight with Vick (hamstring) likely out here and while Foles was 1-5 as a starter last year, his only win was also here at TB (381, 63%, 2-0).

GB was off a loss and a bye and they did what they do best - winning at home (23-2 run). BAL returns from MIA where despite a 20-10 FD edge they were tested mentally with the game tied at 3, 6, 13 and 23. The Ravens have also boasted a strong home field going 26-3 but 2 of those 3 losses came last year while this season’s 2 wins were with a combined 9 yard edge. The difference in the Ravens this year is a rush attack that has averaged 64 ypg and 2.6 ypc before finally topping 100 yards last week vs MIA (still only 3.3). Without that threat Flacco is unable to run the play action he has so successfully used in the past which correlates to his 70.2 QBR and 5-8 ratio (87.7, 22-10 last year). I’ll go with the rested and reenergized Pack that has a home game vs CLE on deck vs a road weary Ravens’ squad that travels again next week to face their main rival, the Steelers.

CLE has the situational edge at home for the second straight with extra rest while DET is in its fourth road game in 5 weeks having just faced GB. The Lions were outgained 449-286 vs GB but with CJ inactive they loaded the box and held Bush to only 44 (3.4) with their longest play totaling only 25 yards. The Browns have reeled off 3 straight wins but vs BUF they lost Hoyer (3-0 as starter). They return to Weeden who, despite having the entire projected starting OL together vs BUF, was sacked 5 times on 24 pass attempts last week. Hoyer was sacked 6 times on ALL of his 96 pass attempts. Two of the Browns wins were thanks to: a fake FG vs MIN and 176 yards PR yards with a td by Travis Benjamin, but I don’t see that happening vs the Lions #7 PR D. You can’t discount job that DC Horton has done (#5) but after facing Manuel, Tuel, Dalton and Ponder, Cleveland hasn’t faced a trio anywhere near Stafford, Johnson and Bush. Also give an edge to HC Schwartz as these teams face off annually in the preseason giving Detroit a deeper playbook.

The Vikings got their first win on the year in London prior to the bye albeit vs an 0-4 Steelers’ squad. They now return home where they were previously upset by CLE. While both teams prefer to run and rank in the top 10, the rush D is another story as MIN has allowed 105 ypg (4.2) compared to Carolina’s 93 ypg (3.6). The Vikings, of course, live and die behind AP so it’s no coincidence that in their first 3 games, all losses, they averaged 121 ypg & 4.2 ypc rushing but in the win vs PIT they had 145 yards and 5.4 ypc. The Panthers are on their second straight long road trip and while Newton looked bad last week (0-2 ratio) he hasn’t had back-to-back games with a negative ratio (4-0 week after). The Panthers were held out of the endzone at ARZ as the WR’s dropped a slew of passes that would have changed the flow of the game. CAR finished with a 353-250 yard edge. Carolina’s #4 D helps them pull off a close road win.

The Texans are off the Super Bowl champs, and the top 2 NFC West teams including the Super Bowl runner up. They have dropped all 3 after the bottom fell out on Sunday Night vs San Fran. The tone was set early when Matt Schaub was threw a pick-6 just :90 into the game. He ended his night with 3 interceptions, being replaced in the 4Q (reportedly still starter). HOU finished with a -4 TO margin in the 34-3 loss. The Rams, meanwhile, got their second win of the season BUT they were outgained 363-351 and allowed the Jags 127 yards more than their season average. STL has played only one top 10 defense this year and that was at home vs SF (188 yards, 14 FD’s) and now they must face another on the road (HOU #1). The Rams also played only one top 10 offense away from home (HOU #6) and in that game they allowed ATL 393 yards and 31 points. Sam Bradford has been a serviceable QB but you can be sure on one thing - if he’s on the road and gets pressured with 3 or more sacks, he and the offense struggle. Over the last 3 years that’s occurred 9 times and the Rams have averaged a whopping 9 points per game! JJ Watts’ head is ready to explode as the Texans return home off 3 straight losses. Houston takes it out on the Rams this week.

The proud Steelers limp into NY as only one of 4 winless teams. While the offense struggled in their first 2 games they have moved the ball their last 2 averaging 447 yards but dropped both thanks to being -7 TO’s! PIT is now off a much needed bye giving them time to incorporate new LT Brown into the mix while the Jets are on a short week off a Monday night upset win of ATL. Geno Smith threw 3 td passes before Atlanta scored a td to go up by 1 with 1:54 left. What did the rookie do? He drove his team 55/8pl to set up Nick Folk’s game-winning 43 yard FG as time expired. The Steelers’ D does get the benefit of coming in from the bye as HOF DC LeBeau’s game plans have led to 5 straight wins in that role while allowing only under 11 ppg. The Jets’ D is ranked #2, but looking at their body of work it was vs the #28 offense of BUF, #29 TEN, #31 TB, and #25 ATL, while the game vs NE was in horrid weather. On offense I’ll still back a not 100% Roethlisberger who’s not intimidated by Ryan’s D (275 yards, 77%, 2-0 last year) vs Geno Smith who has had one game (last week) with a positive ratio (still 7-8 on season).

The Bills are off a Thursday night loss to CLE where EJ Manuel was KO’d (expected to miss a couple of weeks). They return home where they’ve pulled a pair of upsets but they’ll be led by the other rookie Tuel (80 yards, 40%, 0-1 last week). The Bengals will be happy to face a non-Pro Bowler as Cutler, Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Brady have 14 between them yet CIN still has only allowed a 6-4 ratio. BUF has been blitz happy this season earning 4+ sacks in 3 of their last 4 games (15 sks) but CIN’s steady OL has only allowed 11 (6.3%). It’ll be tough for the Bills to establish long drives as the Bengals rush D is allowing 96 ypg (3.9) despite 182 yards (6.1) vs GB. If they shut down Spiller, the talent-laden secondary (three #1’s & a #2) has the ability to blanket both Steve Johnson (injured last week, should be OK) and #1 DC Woods (265, 16.6). Expect Bengals DC Zimmer to unleash one of the best DL’s in the NFL on a rookie UFA behind a bad pass protecting OL (#25) in his first start here.

SEA has this lone home game sandwiched between a pair of playoff teams and a pair of prime time division games including next Thursday. The Seahawks’ OL will be the biggest beneficiary of playing in front of the 12th man. They were down 3 starters each of the last 2 weeks and despite 15 FD’s vs HOU they got that win. However, last week they converted only 3 of 12 on 3rd down and fell to IND. Seattle’s home win streak is now 10. TEN is off 3 straight home games and last week, in Fitzpatrick’s first start for the Titans, he only hit 51% (5.3 ypa, 1-2) and they lost at home to KC failing to score in the 1H. Defenses have been able to bottle up Chris Johnson (who had only 17 rush yards last week, 1.7) and he is only avg 3.3 ypc on the season and that could very easily drop with an OL still uncomfortable with a new QB cadence. SEA also faced Fitz last year while with BUF and held him to 55% (5.7 ypa & 1-2) with that game in Toronto.

In 2008, the question with DET was: can they win a game? With the 2013 Jaguars it’s: why would they? DEN is an exhausted 5-0 but Manning will be upset as his streak of 227 pass attempts without an interception was broken making his 20 pass td’s this year “almost meaningless”. When it rains it pours for the Jaguars as while they set a season high of 363 yards and 20 pts last week vs STL, they are now down to their #3 and #4 OT’s after trading their best offensive player in LT Monroe to BAL and 1st RD DC Joeckel broke his ankle last week. Gabbert was pulled for the fourth time in 8 games (including preseason) for injury/ineffectiveness. While Blackmon returned last week in a big way (5 rec, 27.2, 1 td), DEN expects CB Bailey to finally play this year and with JAX’s OL situation, it’s not likely they will have any time to throw. KC’s QB’s last year had an 8-20 ratio with a 6.2 ypa and this year’s Jags are already at 3-9 ratio with a 6.0 ypa. When your defense has a 12-2 ratio allowed this year, the only concern is if Manning, who has averaged 267 ypg (65%) with a 34-13 ratio vs JAX in his 18 games against them, wants to add covering as the largest favorite in NFL history to his Hall of Fame resume.

The 49ers took a 2 week hiatus embarrassingly totaling 10 points and 461 yards. They recovered vs STL and are off their dismantling of Houston, finding themselves right back in the NFC West race. SF did benefit from a 4-0 TO advantage as the FD’s were even (17) and the 49ers were outgained 313-284. After being outscored 56-10 in their 2 game stretch, the 49ers have flipped the script outscoring their last 2 foes 69-14. The Cardinals have been excellent at stopping the run this season (79 ypg, #2) holding all 5 teams to under 105 yards rushing (3.3 ypc) and while there’s a new coaching staff they held SF last year to 26 ppg and 18 FD’s/gm. The concern here for the ARZ offense is a non-mobile Palmer who has had a 2-7 ratio the last 3 games and still got 2 wins but that won’t occur at Candlestick. SF got a slap in the face going 0-1-1 last year vs STL and by going 1-3-1 in their last 5 vs the NFC West, so you can be assured there will no letting off the gas.

Normally a non-conf home game would be a letdown spot in the midst of a 4 game road trip with a tougher than expected division rival on deck. However, Belichick and Payton are good friends and this looks to be a game for bragging rights. For the 1st time in 52 games Brady failed to have a td in a game as he was down to his 3rd string RB (Blount 51 yards, 4.3 last week) and while Amendola returned (4 rec, 13.8) CIN held him in check as they didn’t fear the rest of the receiving unit. A huge concern is that in the 1st game without Wilfork (achilles), NE gave up 162 yards (4.2) on the ground although other #1 DT Kelly (knee) is likely to play here. Nothing gets Brady focused like a loss, however, NO’s Brees is playing like the 2nd best QB in the league. Last year at this time NO was #32 in total def giving up 283 ypg pass with a 9-3 ratio and 30.8 ppg. This year it’s #12 with 222 ypg pass, a 6-7 ratio and 14.6 ppg and is facing a depleted offense.

Large situational edge to the Skins off a confidence building road win against Mike Shanahan’s former rival while having a bye prior to this trip. You can also be sure that during the bye RGIII lobbied for more freedom on the offense as he had 41 rush attempts in the first 4 last year compared to 13 this year. The Cowboys have already played once in the Sunday Night spotlight when they were outgained by 147 yards but were +5 in TO’s vs the NYG. Look for the Skins to play their best game of the season but it won't be enough as the Cowboys take command in the NFC East.