By Phil Steele

Dick Vermeil was the HC the last time KC started 4-0 (2003). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see KC flat to start this week after 3 straight former HC Reid rivals but the players and fans are re-energized with this start. Alex Smith finished with 2 interceptions, but behind a D that only allowed 11 FD’s they could afford to extend the playbook and throw deep. Tennessee is home for a third straight with back-to-back wins but did lose QB Locker. When Fitzgerald took over early in the 3Q the Titans had a 24-6 lead thanks to three 1H Jets TO’s and while he completed a 77 yd td he was 2-7 for 31 yds the rest of the way. The Titans’ D, however, has been extremely aggressive with 14 sacks already this season and 11 qbh last week. One way to stop the pass rush is by running the ball and that is the reason I’ll lean KC. The Chiefs have topped 100+ yds rushing all 4 games (121 ypg, 4.1) allowing for a successful play-action package while the D has only allowed a league leading 22% on third down conversions now facing a QB making his first start for this franchise.

This is an interesting spot for Miami off its 1st MNF game in almost 2 years with a bye on deck. The Dolphins were outgained 465-331 and outFD’d 23-19 in their first loss of the season, 38-17 at the hands of NO. They host last year’s Super Bowl champ here at 3-1 but they are still tied for the AFC East. The reality is, however that, Miami is 3-1 yet they are -10 FD/-73 ypg. Baltimore’s offensive game plan was a complete mystery last week in their loss to Buffalo rushing only 9 times all game despite leading early in the 2Q and trailing by only 6 points in the 3Q. Flacco imploded under the Bills pressure getting sacked 4 times with 12 qbh and that was with BOTH Bills’ CB’s and a starting safety missing the game! I won’t throw Flacco in the trash yet because–excluding his rookie season–he has NEVER tossed more than ONE interception in back-to-back games and after throwing 2 or more in a game (only 8 times) he has thrown for 63% with a 13-1 ratio!

The Jaguars offense totaled NINE points the first 10 quarters this season and got some fans excited by putting up 17 2H pts vs Seattle in garbage time. They got Gabbert back last week and he “led” his team to 3 FD’s and 69 yds at halftime. The Jags do get back #1DC Blackmon (#1 with 64 rec LY) back from suspension which will free up Shorts, who has had an amazing 13 targets/gm with MJD still not 100% (35 ypg, 2.4, long of 10 yds). The schedule makers added to their misery as in their current 5 week stretch they had trips to Oak, Seattle, here at St Louis and Denver next week. St Louis has extra prep time off of a Thursday loss vs SF. Jags’ HC Bradley is familiar with the Rams (was Seattle’s DC) but until they score a non-garbage td I can’t back them.

This is Belichick’s 1st crack at Andy Dalton and this is the 1st realistic chance that TE Gronkowski makes an appearance. NE’s defensive rebuild, which started in 2011, is finally bearing fruit as prior to ATL they had the #9 def and while they didn’t exactly play elite QB’s prior to Ryan, their 50.5% comp rate and 5.8 def ypa allowed are very impressive. While Cincinnati has tons of potential, they are inconsistent as shown by blowing a 21-10 pt lead vs Chicago, a 14-0 lead vs GB and only being able to muster a pair of FG’s vs Cleveland. The Bengals secondary can also be exposed as they are allowing 61% comp (incl 66% last week to Hoyer) and they’ve only played one QB in Brady’s league (Rodgers) allowing the Packers 27 FD’s. NE holds the technical edges as grabs a road win here.

IND has the situational advantage off a relaxing trip to Jacksonville while Seattle is on its second straight away off a physical battle vs HOU. The Seahawks expended a great deal of energy with a comeback win vs HOU and the D allowed 476 the most since 2010. While Seattle is 2-0 this year those wins were by 5 and 3 points in OT and, in fact, they’ve not won a road games by over 6 points the last 10 games. Many will discount Luck’s performance vs JAX (as well they should) but remember just 2 weeks ago he went into SF and threw for 65% with no interceptions. Living in the Great Northwest may get you an incredible cup of coffee, but it also means that your road trips are lengthy and in the past 3Y when the Seahawks are on the second of back-to-back away games they’ve been outscored 23-16.

Green Bay comes in fresh off a bye after Rodgers was sacked 8 times in the last 2 games while the D has allowed 404 ypg so far this season. Detroit took care of business last week giving the Bears their first loss as they finally had all their playmakers back. Reggie Bush rushed for 139 (7.7) while adding 34 (8.5) rec, opening the middle for TE Pettigrew (7-54). On the defensive side of the ball Louis Delmas had 2 interceptions, Suh played smart (2 sacks, 2 tfl, 2 qbh, 1 FF) and Fairley returned after missing a couple of games scoring a td. The difference in this game is an elite veteran QB and a rested Packers’ squad that matches up well vs these Lions winning 4 straight.

NO is coming off a 38-17 Monday Night win outgaining MIA 465-331 with a 23-19 FD edge. At some point the Saints emotions will run dry in this season of redemption but it won’t come this week versus an NFC division leader. All the Saints talk has centered around the reunion of Payton and Brees while new DC Rob Ryan keeps dialing up defenses which has held its first 3 opponents to 305 ypg and 17 FD/gm. Some may be impressed with the Bears offense averaging 32, ppg but much of that has been on big plays including two last week leading to 97 yards. Excluding the Minnesota game, Chicago has been held to 17 FD/gm meaning teams will play bend but don’t break D forcing the mistake prone Cutler (25-17 ratio last 2 years) to beat them. On the flip side the Bears defense is allowing 65% comp vs Dalton, Ponder, Big Ben and Stafford and now must face Drew Brees who has average 351 ypg and 68% excluding the rain soaked TB game.

There is an immense amount of pressure for Coughlin especially with Giants’ fans used to the winning ways. Starting 0-4 is inexcusable in NY but losing to a pair of teams that totaled 9 wins last year by a combined score of 69-7 has Jim Lee Howell turning over in his grave. In Eli’s last 5 vs PHI he’s averaged 265 ypg (75%) with a 16-3 ratio, but back to the present, the last 2 weeks he’s hit 50% with a 5.6 ypa. The Giants have built their defense around size which is a poor matchup for the Eagles quick paced offense. The Eagles, however, are feeling the effects of their supersonic tempo as the D is allowing 28 FD’s/gm (Saints historically bad D allowed 24 per/gm last year) and that will be magnified playing a second straight away with the first being in altitude. The Giants may have already played themselves out of the playoffs but the disciplinarian Coughlin will not be embarrassed at home versus a new hotshot college HC and a division foe.

Prior to the bye the Panthers posted their first shutout since 2008 and it must be noted teams that earn a shutout prior to their bye are 0-7 losing by a 25-19 average score being outgained by 75 ypg. The bye week, however, came at an opportune time for CAR as a mobile Newton will help alleviate the man-to-man coverage the Cardinals prefer while giving him time to work with new WR Ginn (6 rec, 22.2, 2 td’s last 2 games). He along with Smith (14, 10.1, 1 td), LaFell (7 rec. 9.4, 2 td last 2 games) and TE Olson (16, 12.1, 1 td) give Newton options he was unaccustomed to. Last week’s results also give some very good value vs ARZ as while they stayed out on the East Coast all week to acclimate to the humidity they only outgained TB by 43 yds. TB’s rookie QB masked the fact that ARZ lost 3 OLB’s to IR last week (get stud LB Washington back from suspension here) and that’s a great matchup vs CAR run game vs an overrated #16 defense giving up 3rd down conversions at 40% this year. Add in the fact ARZ lacks a run game (79 ypg, 3.6) and I’ll take the road team here.

The dog in this series has pulled the upset in five of the last 6 meetings. While HC McCoy deserves a ton of credit for getting Rivers to play up to his level despite a bad OL and missing top WR Floyd for the #7 offense their #30 defense is a surprise especially since it’s the same DC/system as last year. SD has allowed over 70% comp in 2 games this year and their only interception came all the way back in week 1. They have very little pass rush with just 8 sacks (WAS had 7 vs OAK last week) which is good for OAK as Pryor is expected back here. There is a question if McFadden (hamstring) or all-purpose FB Reece (knee) will return. OAK had a chance to keep last week’s game within 1 score but Allen went for it on 4th&1 on the WAS17 with 3:32 left instead of a sure FG costing them the game. SD’s defense can’t be trusted and the series history sides with the underdog, so look the Chargers to squeak one out, but not by much.

This is a good situation for DAL getting the Broncos off a MNF game followed by a track meet vs PHI. One of the quieter surprises of 2013 has been the improved play of Romo who is averaging 238 ypg (72%) with an 8-1 ratio who has only been sacked 9 times in 152 attempts this year in a streamlined offense. Romo has been able to spread the ball with 3 receivers having 21 receptions though the status of Austin (hamstring) is unknown here. DEN’s 4-0 mark has been vs BAL opening on the road in a hostile game, the injury depleted Giants, talent-lacking Raiders and an Eagles defense still integrating 4 new starters. While Peyton looks unstoppable, remember his only road gm this year was vs the #23 defense of the Giants and last year he posted a 22-3 ratio at home but only 15-8 away.

Neither team anticipated being 2-2 at this point and the loser certainly didn’t expect to have a losing record after 5 games. SF has extra time off a Thursday win while Houston just outgained Seattle 476-270 which is the same team San Fran was outgained against 290-207.