By Phil Steele

NE came into the season having averaged 28 FD/gm while topping 23 or more in every game last year. They opened up with 26 FD’s vs BUF and then Ryan and the Jets held Brady to NINE FD’s although NE came away win the win (13-10) in poor weather. Both teams have injury issues with NE expected to be without Amendola (conc) and CB Talib (hip) while the Jets are minus WR Holmes (hamstring) and CB Cromartie (knee) was limited last week. The Jets actually have the stat edge with the #19 and #4 units vs NE’s #15 and #15 units, but the Patriots simply hold onto the ball better (+5 TO’s vs -11 TO’s). Brady should fare much better with NE finally expected to debut Gronkowski.

JAX played DEN very tough last week and trailed 21-19 when DEN had to roll out a fake punt. Now they host a SD squad off a Monday Night 19-9 win over Indianapolis. Rivers has been pretty decent avg 249 ypg (67%, 21-9) on the road in recent years. Last week JAX lost another weapon in WR Shorts (38% of rec yards). Henne gives them a shadow of a competent QB (over twice Gabbert’s QBR) and gets the #26 pass D allowing 70% with a 10-1 ratio this year. JAX OL issues are too big for them to steal one away here and San Diego is focused on every winnable game sitting at 3-3.

Enigmatic, incomprehensible, inscrutable are the adjectives and maybe the answer is pick-6. We have one team 6-0 with the #24 off and #5 def vs a 2-4 team with the #6 and #1 units. There are always a handful of games that you can’t get a grasp on because of the unknown. This is one of them, with a talent laden Texans team that is winless with an All-Pro QB who might be benched under the disguise of an injury for Case Keenum. Texans’ players stood proud and made public statements last week and they came away with yet another blowout loss thanks to being -4 in TO’s. Now with a bye on deck what will their reaction be? The Chiefs did what they do best last week–play mistake free football–and they have been even or +TO’s in every game this year (+12). They don’t care to be fancy (outgained 279-216 vs OAK) as they are averaging 326 ypg and have yet to reach 400 yards.

Both took to the road winning vs teams with new HC’s playing someone other than their starting QB’s. The Lions, after a slow start, had a 257-145 2H edge with a 15-8 FD advantage. Stafford’s early struggles were in part to Megatron not being 100% (8 targets, 3 rec) but another week removed from his injury will have him raring to go. The Bengals are a similar team on defense to the Browns (DET opp last week), but they can’t be happy allowing BUF 322 yards without their top WR Smith and with a QB that was on the practice squad the previous week. On offense, however, CIN does have more weapons than their up north rival with a veteran QB Dalton who had his best game this year (337, 65%, 3-1). DET’s #21 pass D is better than their ranking (7-10 ratio) as they’ve started the same secondary for 6 straight for the first time in over 4 years! Ford Field plays to the speed strength of Bush/Megatron as well as the DL and I’ll take the home team.

After starting 3-0, the Dolphins went into their bye week in a disappointing fashion dropping their last 2 including vs BAL when they allowed a 44 yard FG with 1:42 left then missed wide-left from 57 yards on the final play. The unique stat in this game is that the Dolphins units rank #28 & #24 on off/def and while they have faced our toughest set of opponents, it’s not often you find a sizeable Vegas favorite that has been outgained in every game so far this year. The Bills struggled, as expected, with Lewis making his first start at QB being here just 7 days but that was vs the Bengals top 10 D and without star WR Smith who was unavailable (personal). Paired with Spiller, who averaged 7.4 ypc on the road last year and ran for 138 (6.3) here in MIA, it kept the offense from being a lability. I expect this matchup to feature a pair of conservative game plans and will call for the rested Dolphins to take a home win.

CHI has a situational edge off last week’s win vs the NYG on Thursday with WAS having played on SNF and losing to the Cowboys 31-16. This is an interesting matchup with the mercurial Griffin and now healthy RB Morris (74 ypg, 5.3) vs a depleted CHI defense. The Bears, who are allowing 67% completions, were down to their 4th and 5th DT’s vs NYG (#2 DT Paea may return) and they lost top MLB DJ Williams. CHI has allowed only a pair of teams to top 80+ yards rushing this year while WAS has topped that total mark 21 of the 22 games with RGIII here. On the flip side WAS #32 D is exciting for any QB to face and while Cutler looks much improved under new HC Trestman’s offense, in his last 5 on the road he has hit only 56% (6-5 ratio). The exclamation mark in this one is that the Bears haven’t played well in close games.

Eagles fans are never happy, but they can’t be in an overly hostile mood the team returning home off back-to-back road wins and with their 3 losses on the season to teams that are a combined 15-2. DAL, meanwhile, is off back-to-back “A” games battling the Broncos and losing on the last play in a draining game then coming off that loss with a home win over the Skins. While those factors lean PHI, the Cowboys are clearly more talented. What we do know is that in last year’s tumultuous Cowboys’ season they played on the road after back-to-back losses twice winning both including here, 38-23. With Vick out last week, Foles led the Eagles to 425 yards and HC Kelly said he would keep all guessing on who makes the start here. One thing the Eagles should be concerned about is a D that has just 4 sacks the last 3 games and has allowed 4 of their 6 foes season highs on offense with the other 2 getting their second highest yardage totals. Romo has averaged 267 ypg (67%) with a 9-2 ratio in his last 5 full games vs the Eagles and with the #4 rush D they can slow the Eagles #1 rush offense.

Both teams are off upset wins but they couldn’t be more different. The Panthers were traveling for a second straight game and, after losing to ARZ despite outgaining them 353-250, they went into an emotional Metrodome and Newton led the way with his arm (242, 77%, 3-0). HC Rivera has tried to protect Newton running him only 13 times in the 3 losses but he averaged 8 attempts in the wins and scored a td in both. The Rams, meanwhile, are now traveling for a second straight with a 3-3 record including back-to-back wins. STL, however, is coming off of a game which defines “misleading score” as they +4 in TO’s and got a 40 yard penalty leading to their first td as they finished getting outgained 420-216 at HOU. The value of playing against STL doesn’t stop there as they’ve been outgained in their other 2 wins as well including JAX at home. The Panthers’ D has allowed the second fewest FD’s and with the Rams averaging under 19/gm, there will be no long drives while this being the Rams first game outdoors also can’t hurt.

Just 10 yards away from the Super Bowl last year, injuries at LB (Weatherspoon/Biermann) and now to WR Jones (30% of this year’s off) have dealt major blows to ATL. The much needed bye week will not only help physically (RB’s Jackson & White ?) but also mentally. Under HC Smith the Falcons have never lost more than 2 games in a season, but they did that in an 8 day window prior to the bye while also losing vs TB here in their regular season finale (albeit resting starters). Ryan has enjoyed hosting the Bucs hitting 65% with a 4-0 ratio and Tampa has regressed allowing PHI’s Foles to look like Peyton throwing for 296 (71%, 3-0) in his first start of the year. Rookie Glennon (273, 60%, 2-1) was handed the job after Freeman was jettisoned and while his numbers were respectable, he was at home facing the Eagles #31 D. Throw in the Dome noise and a DL that has had 4+ sacks in 2 of its last 3 games and this will be a different story.

While there is no love between SF and SEA, the other should benefit when playing the same team in the second of back-to-back games. Not only has the team been through a physical battle, but in this case SF can make adjustments to any new schemes the Titans threw at Seattle’s read option. TEN benefitted from a 77 yard return for a td on a flubbed FG as they were outgained 404-223 vs SEA last week. RB Johnson was held to 33 yards (2.8) and almost half of Wright’s receiving yards (32 of 69) came on a rare busted play by SEA’s secondary. After these 2 physical games, TEN does get a needed bye. Fitzpatrick, in his 2 starts, has hit 54% (6 sacks) and a 1-4 ratio as the fact he has one of the weaker arms in the NFL means more defenders creeping up vs the run and intermediate game. I don’t mind backing SF on the road under Harbaugh as they are 8-2 vs non-division foes.

The Browns’ D was ranked #4 going into last week when DET put up 24 pts and 257 yards in the 2H. What happened? The Browns finally faced an offense that was ranked in the top 15 (DET #9) as their first 5 foes averaged #22 on offense. Now they face the league’s #2 offense on the road which just put up 438 yards at BAL despite some key injuries at WR. What make Rodgers so special is that not only is he accurate, he throws deep and he is the only QB beside Manning to hit over 65% AND have a ypa over 8.6. He’s been especially sharp at home this year hitting 75% and a 5-0 ratio! On the flip side the Packers’ D has been atrocious and is now without LB Matthews. I would still side with them vs CLE’s Weeden who was benched for the now injured Hoyer. In his last 6 starts he has not led CLE to over 20 points and in his lone road start this year he “led” his team to 6 points and 13 FD’s getting sacked 5 times. The Packers had 9 sacks their previous 2 games but there was no fall off without their star LB as they had another 5 in BAL. Lambeau is still special as GB has gone 22-1 at home and makes it 23 here.

Both of these squads are defensive minded. PIT went into its bye week 0-4 and came out healthy vs the NY Jets. The Steelers had 4 scoring drives of 8+ plays and while they were held to FG’s, it was on the road versus the league’s #2 D. BAL, meanwhile, is on its third road game in four weeks and off hosting GB where their D allowed 438 yards. The road has spelled trouble for the Ravens and it starts up front with an OL allowing 3.3 sks/gm while opening holes for only 72 ypg rushing and 3.1 ypc. Without the time for play-action, Flacco is hitting 54% with a 4-8 ratio on the road and while they’ve put up 24 ppg, it was vs D’s that came into last week ranked #20, #24 & #28 while the Steelers are ranked #6. Pittsburgh may be 1-4, but with a win here they know they will only trail BAL by 1/2 of a game and they have CIN in their sights.

Peyton returns “home” and will honored by the Colts. The Broncos scoring fest slowed a bit last week as they only won by 16 laying almost 4 td’s last week. Luck and Co. stumbled in their first prime-time role at SD, 19-9. It is also an unusual week having played on the West Coast and now having to deal with the obvious distractions. Denver has gone 8-0 on the road while Indy has pulled the upset in all 5 games they were at home and a dog including GB, HOU, MIN and SEA.