By Phil Steele

London. SF now returns to London 3 years after beating DEN 24-16 in 2010. The overseas trip has been an equalizer as only 2 games have been decided by over 8 points, but both times is was when New England - first against an 0-6 TB squad and then against a 3-4 STL team off a 2-14 season. The uniqueness of the situation will keep JAX interested despite its 0-7 record. The Jaguars will be playing home games here the next 3 years as well but the UK would probably he happier watching Khan’s other investment in Fulham F.C.

This is an excellent spot for the Lions here at home for the 2nd straight with a bye on deck while the Cowboys are off their emotional shootout vs Denver, a SNF win vs WAS and a surprisingly defensive battle at PHI. That trio that the Cowboys just faced were all ranked #27 or worse on defense and while DET ranks in the lower half, they have just played 4 top 12 offenses in their last 5 games and held them to 21 ppg. On the flip side Stafford has faced the Vikings’ #32 D as well as the Redskins #24 and the team averaged 455 ypg while throwing for 365 ypg and now he takes on DAL #28 and their 14-6 ratio (prior to getting 3 int vs Barkley). The Lions despite last week’s last second loss (54 yd FG on final play after 28 yd punt) are starting to shed off the negativism from last year. DET is already 2-0 off a loss this year and the Cowboys will bring the best out from the again rowdy Lions fans. This is only the second time in 8 years that Jerry’s team has played back-to-back road games as a dog in both and visiting an unfriendly dome is a concern as DAL has dropped all 4 since 2009.

The Eagles beat the Giants 36-21 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. Philadelphia had a 18-8 FD and 303-184 yd edge at the half and Foles tallied 197 yds (64%) and 2 td’s after he replaced an ineffective Vick. The Giants finally got their first win, 23-7 at home against the Vikings on Monday night. PHI’s Vick (hamstring) is listed as probable here, while Foles (concussion) is out, but if Vick can’t go it will be Matt Barkley’s (129 yd, 55%, 0-3 last week) first start. The Giants’ once proud D, which is allowing 35 ppg, has been in horrible situations as their 24 giveaways are 7 more then the #2. This, and a weak pass rush, due to a less than 100% JPP (1 sk in 6 games), has exposed a bad back 7 (#24 pass def, 14-4 ratio). PHI’s defense is struggling due to its shift to a 3-4 and a rebuilt secondary (#31 pass def, 14-8 ratio). With a lost season the Giants can go all in here and PHI has a 9 game home losing streak.

The Reid revival took far shorter than anyone could have imagined and the Arrowhead fans proved it with Guinness. The question is how good are they? They beat a winless Jaguars squad followed by 3 former NFC East teams that Reid knows as well as anyone that still only have a combined 7 wins. Next they played TEN with new QB Fitzpatrick making his first start, hosted 2nd year QB-by-default Pyror and then host an undrafted rookie QB. The Chiefs were able to rattle Keenum last week with 5 sacks and 5 qbh. KC has allowed 5 of the 7 offenses they faced to top their season average with only the Jaguars and Texans last week failing. They do have another favorable matchup here vs CLE with 2nd year QB Weeden but the Browns also bring the best scoring defense they’ve faced this year. In their top 4 scoring games KC is averaging 28 ppg, yet only gained 357 ypg and were +8 TO’s vs scoring D’s that averaged #25.

Who loves bye weeks? The Saints do as they’ve won 4 straight by a 42-25 avg score. Brees puts extra work in during the bye to make sure there is no fall off and has crushed it averaging 373 ypg (70%) with a 16-3 ratio in his return. Last year the Saints allowed 24 FD, 449 ypg and 26 ppg at home and after 3 games. This year they’re allowing 18 FD, 315 ypg and 14 ppg. While BUF has cobbled a decent pass defense (#20, 15-12 ratio) considering their injuries, their #26 rush defense continues to be an issue allowing 140 ypg (4.1) minus the BAL game due to bad play calling on their part. BUF’s #5 pass rush is a bit of a mirage as 6 sacks came vs a bad CAR OL with Newton having an off day and 5 were vs Weeden who has an MLB pitcher’s pocket presence. The Bills win at MIA makes them 3-4, but that will now work against them as teams take them more seriously. BUF also has to make its second long road trip with Lewis making his first ever start in a dome. Brees made a point to mention how the last second loss to NE left a bad taste in their mouth prior to the bye and they get back on track here.

The shocker here is that the Patriots are 5-2 but if you watched every post game press conference this year you might have guessed 2-5? Well this time they are off a real loss and the Belichick is pulling out his hair because it was to Rex Ryan. Since 2003 the Patriots are 51-12 vs the AFC East and they’ve won every game following a div loss. The Dolphins’ 3-0 start has been followed by 3 straight losses with the offense avg just 13 FD/gm and an OL opening holes for only 3.9 ypc while allowing a now shaky Tannehill to be rocked for 4.3 sacks/gm. NE’s well documented defensive injuries were a major part of the Jets upset as they had 27 FD’s and 177 yds rushing but MIA can’t take advantage the same way. In the Dolphins last 2 road games they’ve allowed season highs to IND and Luck and NO and Brees, so why not here as well?

Both teams are off come-from-behind upsets with the NY Jets earning a huge win versus the arch-rival Patriots. Geno Smith led 7 drives of 8+ plays but relied on the rush attack (177 yds). The Bengals beat DET on a last second FG and they also knocked off NE just 3 weeks ago (341-248 edge) while pulling out an OT win at BUF sandwiched between. CIN has the most impressive home résumé this season going 3-0 vs PIT, GB and NE and while they have a Thursday game on deck, it is their only home showing in a 5 week span. You know NY’s locker room celebration went into the evening, but it could very well be that Ryan gets his troops too emotional after an upset. Since 2010 they pulled a road upset or an upset at home after being more than a FG dog and they’ve gone 0-4 the game after. The Jets have also rotated wins and losses this season and following their first 3 “W’s” Smith has a 1-9 ratio the week after getting sacked 12 times!! The CIN DL had 16 sacks the 4 games prior to last week and while DET’s OL is in #4 in sacks allowed, they’ll have much more success against the a Jets squad ranked #28 OL in sacks. The Jets are the only team with a winning record to be outscored on the season, and Cincy sends the fans home happy.

OAK pulled a 34-31 upset of PIT in OT early last year despite PIT outgaining them 433-321 with Roethlisberger having a fine day (384, 73%, 4 td’s) vs a defense still in place. OAK has the situational edge being off a bye, however, PIT may have been the most enthusiastic 1-4 team ever as players talked about still being in it and still winning the AFC North. After their usual battle with BAL in which a team won by exactly 3 pts for the 9th time in 11 meetings, they now look forward to grabbing a third straight win. Big Ben missed both Ravens games last year. What OAK isn’t accustomed to is having an offense as they they’ve averaged only 16 FD/gm in the last 5 and that is with a rush attack gaining a respectable 130 ypg and 4.7 ypc. The Steelers’ rush D is rounding back into shape allowing BAL 82 (3.6) and the Jets 83 (4.2) the L2W and I’ll always back a team that has both a better offense and better defense with an expectation to win.

From one high profile emotional game to another as Mike Shanahan faces his former team for the first time. DEN has a well earned bye on deck and Manning gets another plum matchup vs the #21 pass defense that is allowing an 11-4 ratio with an 8.5 ypa so far. Griffin has a huge challenge ahead of him vs DEN’s fully stocked and “lowly #30 def” with Miller back last week. Yes, the Broncos give up big yardage but it’s by design. Their +0 TO’s are avg due to the Jags game, but they are 5th in defensive ypp (15.5) and are allowing just 70 ypg rush (3.2) as teams are one dimensional trying to play catchup with Manning. Griffin may be getting more comfortable, but he’s at a whole new level vs the Broncos here.

When these 2 met in Atlanta last year the Falcons only won 23-19 as Ryan had a game he won’t forget finishing with an 0-5 ratio. This is a game in which you should throw out the records as the Falcons have the offensive edge (#9 vs #29) while the defenses are close (#19 vs #17). Atlanta’s D may be in the bottom half, but by excluding games against a pair of HOF’ers in Brady and Brees, the Falcons are allowing 333 ypg. Interception prone Palmer has tossed 2+ picks in his last 5 games (4-11 ratio) with an OL barely better than last year’s.The Cardinals have extra rest off a Thursday Night but they clearly need it having played SF and SEA in back-to-back weeks. In fact, the Falcons played Sunday vs TB they had a bye prior and are probably better rested and could finally get some players back. ARZ comes into this game at 3-4 knowing a win takes them into their bye at .500.

Back-to-back prime timers for the Vikings are 1-5 and already using their third QB this season. On the flip side, Aaron Rogers currently sits at #10 in the NFL in passing (65%, 13-4 ratio, 15 sacks). Minnesota ranks #27 in the NFL in defense allowing 391 ypg including 289 passing, which is more than Rodgers is averaging (272 ypg). The Packers lost here in last year’s season finale, however they’re an elite team with 4 straight double-digit win seasons. Vikings make a stand in front of the national TV audience.