Daily Blog • September 11, 2013

Welcome back to my Top 25 Forecasts. In the past several years, I have given you my complete forecasts for every game involving Top 25 teams. This year I am going to give you my forecasts that include just the Top 5 teams as you need to become a Inside the Pressbox subscriber to get all of my forecasts for not only the games involving the Top 25 teams but also any FBS vs FBS game.

 

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#1 ALABAMA AT #16 TEXAS A&M
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
 #1 ALABAMA 214
230
36
0
 #16 TEXAS A&M
284
262
35
+2
-
LY A&M jumped out to a 20-0 lead and Manziel hit 21-34-309 while rushing for 92. A&M led 29-17 in the 4Q and Bama got a td with 6:09 left then got a 54 yd pass to the 6 but on 4&gl from the 2, was int’d in the EZ with 1:36 left. LY the situation favored A&M as Bama was coming off their annual huge game vs LSU. TY the Tide are off a bye and a “so-so” performance vs VT as despite covering in a 35-10 win, they were outgained 212-206 and their OL took a lot of flak in the media. Remember LY early in the ssn, the Bama OL gave up 6 sks vs WKU and responded by becoming the most dominant OL in the last 10-15 yrs in CFB. A&M is off a 65-28 win over FCS Sam Houston St. The offense compiled 38 FD’s and 714 yds and Manziel is avg 260 (70%) w/a 6-1 ratio in about 5Q’s of action. The Tide has lost 3 home gms in 5Y and revenged the previous 2. They have a big D edge here and look for them to get revenge.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 34 TEXAS A&M 20
#2 OREGON VS TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 175
140
23
+7
#2 OREGON
348
275
47
+6
-

Only other meeting was in Knoxville in 2010. Tennessee led #7 Oregon 13-3 after an hour long lightning delay but the Ducks exploded for 45 straight points in the final 33 min. The Vols are off to a 2-0 start under new HC Jones and LW after trailing 3-0, early took adv of 5 WKU TO’s in 6 plays to lead 31-3 in a 52-20 win. They were outgained 393-382. The major ? for the Ducks TY was how they would replace HC Kelly and so far, they haven’t skipped a beat after LW’s 59-10 win over UVA. The UO off is avg a mind numbing 425 rush ypg while QB Mariota is avg 217 pass ypg w/a 3-0 ratio. The L3Y UO has avg’d 61 ppg home vs non-conf foes. So far it looks like Helfrich is not letting up as they have outscored their opp’s by a comb 59-0 in the 2H which spells doom for the Vols.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 52 TENNESSEE 21
#4 OHIO STATE AT CALIFORNIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#4 OHIO ST 248
256
41
+6
•••
CALIFORNIA
13
319
17
+2
-
LY it was tied 28-28 when OSU got a 72 yd td pass and Cal would miss 3 FG’s and had a td called back on pen. Cal on the road had 22-14 FD and 512-412 yd edges in a 35-28 loss. The Bucks are off a 42-7 win over SDSt as bkp QB Guiton led them most of the way (career-highs 19-28-152-2-1) as Miller left the gm in the 1Q w/a sprained MCL. Guiton is a 5th yr Sr and does have plenty of exp filling in for the oft inj’d Miller. Cal is off an FCS foe but had to expend some effort as they gave up 434 yds in the 1H to Portland St in a 37-30 win. Frosh QB Goff has already thrown for 935 yds in Dykes’ pass-happy off, which is the most yds by a QB in his 1st 2 gms in more than 10 yrs. Regardless of whether Miller plays or not, the Bucks have the talent edges and you have to figure there will be a lot of Scarlet & Gray in the crowd w/a rare trip out West.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 41 CALIFORNIA 20
#5 STANFORD AT ARMY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#5 STANFORD 257
250
39
0
••••
ARMY
224
1
4
-1
-

Army is 5-5 vs Stanford incl 2 str wins but L/gm was in ‘79 (17-13). Army has not beaten a ranked foe since 1972. LW the Cadets fell 40-14 at Ball St. After having 0 TO’s and 0 penalties in week 1, Army had 3 TO’s and 8 penalties (90 yards) in the loss. Stanford beat their pesky rival San Jose St 34-13. QB Hogan threw for 207 yds w/a 2-0 ratio as Stan had their largest crowd (50,424) since 2008. Naturally, Stanford has large talent edges across the board but they are flying across country and playing at 12 EST (9 am local time for SU). The Cardinal will no doubt win by DD’s but they do have a big game vs Ariz St on deck and look for the Cadets to keep it closer than the “experts” think.

PHIL’S FORECAST: STANFORD 38 ARMY 14
#7 LOUISVILLE AT KENTUCKY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#7 LOUISVILLE 127
319
37
+2
-
KENTUCKY
98
291
18
-2
•••
In the L/17 matchups, the tm w/the most rushing yds has taken the Governor’s Cup. 2 years ago then true frosh QB Bridgewater replaced an inj’d Stein in the 2Q and threw a pair of td’s leading Louisville to a 24-17 win and has started ever since. After a disappointing opener, the Cats got a feel-good 41-7 win over Miami, OH LW as they outgained the RedHawks 675-122. QB Smith in his 1st start s/last Sept, was 15 of 23 for 310 yds w/a 3-0 ratio. The top 10 Cards got their 2nd straight blowout win as they beat overmatched EKU 44-7. Heisman cand QB Bridgewater is already avg 376 ypg (77%) w/a 9-1 ratio and the 1st string D hasn’t all’d a score in the 1H of their 2 gms. The Cards only have a couple of games to impress the voters TY and this is a chance for them to be compared to many of the teams in the SEC. Look for them to win comfortably.
PHIL’S FORECAST: LOUISVILLE 37 KENTUCKY 20