Daily Blog • September 15th
HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS:
SAN DIEGO AT PHILADELPHIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN DIEGO 75
251
23
0
#15
PHILADELPHIA 102
357
25
0
#32

Both come in off Monday Nighters with different results. The Chargers faced a physical Texans D and now travel across the country, with an early start, facing an offense with expected breakneck speed. SD QB Rivers is clearly not of fan of long road trips to the NE as in last year’s trips to CLE, PIT, NYJ he threw for 173 ypg and 51%. We also know that SD’s secondary is among the worst in the NFL with 3 new starters including both CB’s. Having to make decisions vs the mobile Vick will can be disastrous without having experience working together. The Eagles ran over Washington last week upstaging RGIII in his return from the ACL injury. The PHI D held WAS on the wrong side of the 50 until the 2H and at the half the Eagles had 322-75 yd and 21-3 FD edges and ran an Oregon-like 53 plays in the 1H (2nd most plays by any NFL team since 1991). They did slow down in the 2H (21pl, 5 FD, 121 yards and 7 points) but still walked away with a 33-27 road win. Now they debut their high-flying offense at home and all indicators call for an easy win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 34 SAN DIEGO 24
CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEVELAND 89
238
18
-2
#22
BALTIMORE 111
333
27
0
#1

The Browns “new era” began last week in disappointment as the Turner offense was grounded, QB Weeden looked like he took a step backwards and RB Richardson was not used much after the first drive. Baltimore is coming off an embarrassing loss to open the NFL season but has 3 extra days of rest. CLE allowed just 20 rush yards last week (0.9) but the secondary was torched and BAL needs to get Rice/Pierce (totaled 58 yd, 2.8 vs DEN) going while Flacco had 362 pass yards and is 8-0 vs CLE. The Browns are 1-14 on the road while the Ravens have won 7 straight home openers. With the entire AFC North at 0-1 and HOU on deck, the Ravens are in dire need of a win and they get it vs a rival.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 27 CLEVELAND 20
TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 83
174
14
+2
#8
HOUSTON 142
255
24
0
#6

The Texans come in off a closer-than-expected 31-28 come-from-behind Monday Night win and are out to show their AFC South foes who are the kings of the division. Safety Reed should be back which will help contain CJ who only ran for 70 (2.8) vs PIT and despite him topping 1,200 last year, the Titans still only averaged 298 ypg and 16 FD’s per game on the road. Back-to-back road games are tough enough, but last year, the week after traveling to PIT, every team rushed for under their avg per game and totaled an eye-opening 3.4 ypc. Tennessee QB Locker finished last year hitting only 52% on the road with a 6.1 yards per attempt, and a 6-7 ratio and last week’s 11-20 for 125 yards shows not much has changed. The Texans have won their last 3 home openers and make it 4 straight today.

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 27 TENNESSEE 17
MIAMI AT INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 126
285
22
+2
#5
INDIANAPOLIS 36
240
16
+2
#21

Both are off opening week wins but the Dolphins are playing in back-to-back road games while Indy stays at home for a second straight week. Last year IND hosted MIA and won 23-20 (+151 yards) with Luck passing for a career-high 433 yards (rookie record). Last week the Dolphins run game was nonexistent (20 yards, 0.9) but QB Tannehill picked apart the CLE secondary even with #1 option Wallace having just 1 grab. IND, after a 14-0 lead, needed a 19-yd Luck td run with 5:20 left to avoid the upset vs OAK. The Dolphins are 1-4 run on the road. The Colts should get the job done here as last week they allowed 171 ypg (5.2) and now face a weaker set of RB’s and a less mobile QB.

PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 24 MIAMI 17
CAROLINA AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAROLINA 171
226
21
-1
#27
BUFFALO 83
208
14
+1
#10

Both took on playoff teams at home last week and each took a lead into the 4Q. Both were also outscored 6-0 in the final stanza and while Buffalo may see it as a moral victory, Carolina certainly doesn’t. Another big difference is that Newton faced the league’s #1 scoring D from last year while Manuel faced the league’s #25 overall. Newton brings a dual-threat QB to the field after BUF faced the pocket-happy Brady last week.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CAROLINA 27 BUFFALO 20
ST LOUIS AT ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS 77
258
15
0
#20
ATLANTA 81
331
24
-1
#4

Put Atlanta against a team off a come-from-behind division battle that has just 8 wins their last 41 games away from home. Last week the Falcons had the unenviable task of taking on the ultra-energized Saints and with the noise in the Superdome it limited Ryan’s ability to audiblize. Now ATL can use the full talents of RB Jackson who practiced against this Rams D for the last 9 years. This week it’s time for the Falcons’ fans to show how loud they can be.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 23 ST LOUIS 16
WASHINGTON AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 109
264
21
0
#30
GREEN BAY 90
384
30
-2
#29

The Packers have the advantage of facing a mobile QB for a second straight week but are at home and the Redskins are off a short week. RGIII made his return to the field, just 8 months after his ACL injury, but the high-flying Eagles offense was too much in a 33-27 loss. In what was an ugly 1H for the Skins, they were outgained 322-75 and outFD’d 21-3, holding the ball for just 9:40 and never crossing the 50. They did better in the 2H and only finished -61 yds and -1 FD, although the Philly offense did let off the gas after the break. GB lost last week in SF and hasn’t started a season 0-2 since McCarthy’s first year at the helm in ‘06. The Packers are 26-2 at Lambeau and last year, after losing their opener (also vs SF), they stomped Chicago by 18 on a short week. The Packers defense also will be more focused after a 2Q mistake last week they may have caused the defeat.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 30 WASHINGTON 20
DALLAS AT KANSAS CITY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DALLAS 49
229
20
+5
#24
KANSAS CITY 117
275
21
+2
#16

Dallas takes to the road off the Sunday Night Giants’ home 36-31 home win. The Cowboys’ D was out to prove that getting the ball was top priority (16 TO’s last year) and forced 6 vs the NYG including a 49 yard IR td which clinched the win. Tony Romo was KO’d just before halftime (ribs), but returned and despite being outgained 478-331, led the first win over Eli Manning in Cowboys Stadium. The Chiefs’ redesigned D pitched a shutout but it was against the Jaguars. KC mauled them on the LOS with 6 sacks, 8 tfl and 10 qbh. The offense was unimpressive with 291 yards and 17 FD’s as Alex Smith dinked and dunked for a 5.1 yards per att but he moves to 21-5-1 as a starter since 2011 playing mistake free ball with his team followed suite with only 3 penalties. Andy Reid clearly rates the edge prepping for this previous division foe while also knowing that Dallas swept his Eagles last year. The Cowboys OL, with rookie #1DC Frederick at C, will have a much tougher time making calls in Arrowhead for a home opener. 

PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 23 DALLAS 20
MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MINNESOTA 132
187
20
-2
#7
CHICAGO 102
279
26
+2
#31
Ponder has TOTALED 377 yards (53%) with a 1-3 ratio in his 4 meetings vs Chicago. Minus Peterson’s 78 yd run on his 1st play of the game, he was held to 15 yards (0.9) on the ground afterwards. After Trestman’s halftime adjustments Cutler hit for 172 yards (79%) with a 1-1 ratio but look for the intensity to fade a bit after the new HC’s first win. The Bears now have to face an elite RB after holding CIN’s below-average group to 63 yards (3.0) with Peterson rushing for 263 yards (5.3) in last year’s meetings.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CHICAGO 23 MINNESOTA 17
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ORLEANS 44
367
27
+1
#3
TAMPA BAY 157
313
24
0
#28

The Brees/Payton combo started right where they left off with Brees putting up 357 pass yards and an impressive 74% completion percentage with an even more impressive 10.2 yards per attempt. The Tampa trip has been a favorite of Brees’ as last year he threw for 377 (73%, 4-1) while the Saints have won 3 of the last 4. The Bucs are making a “slight” step up in competition after allowing Geno Smith to throw for 256 yards and a 63% completion rate. The Bucs struggled with costly penalties last year (#11 in ‘12 with 102) and are still playing undisciplined with 13 accepted penalties vs the Jets including 5 that resulted in FD’s. The Saints offense doesn’t need extra help but it’ll just make this win easier.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 28 TAMPA BAY 21
DETROIT AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DETROIT 71
325
24
+2
#25
ARIZONA 59
306
26
0
#11

The Lions have been lacking a RB to help take the pressure off of the QB and Reggie Bush answered the call totaling 191 yards on 25 touches (7.6). His presence allowed the OL to keep Stafford clean only taking one sack against vs a Vikings DL with 94 sacks the last 2 years. There was an offensive sighting in St Louis last week and for those Arizona fans that didn’t recognize it, it was their Cardinals. Carson Palmer may be hailed as a savior as he led Arizona to 25 FD’s which is the first time that’s happened since 2009 when Kurt Warner out-dueled Aaron Rodgers making his first playoff start winning 51-45 in OT in the CSF’s. The 33 year old was under pressure vs the Rams getting sacked 4 times and getting hit 5. Now it’s the Lions turn to up the pressure as Nick Fairley has taking a leadership role on the Detroit DL with 1.5 sacks, a tfl and 2 qbh last week. Lions, like the Rams, except they have a superior QB, RB and receivers.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DETROIT 27 ARIZONA 24
JACKSONVILLE AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JACKSONVILLE 135
152
17
-2
#18
OAKLAND 128
241
23
-2
#26

Last year Oakland also hosted the Bottom 2 Bowl and won 26-23. The Jaguars will be deflated after the publicity pitch with the new ownership but the reality is that they are far less talented than almost every team as their 12 FD’s and 178 yards showed in the opener not crossing midfield until mid-4Q. The Raiders, meanwhile, are also off a loss but can fly home proud. They outgained a playoff team on the road 372-274 and had FIVE drives of 10+ plays. Pryor won the starting QB job by default but led Oakland to 20 FD’s which is a total they hit only once last year on the road thanks to his 112 (8.6) yards rushing. The Black Hole will be ready.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OAKLAND 24 JACKSONVILLE 20
DENVER AT NY GIANTS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DENVER 52
384
32
0
#2
NY GIANTS 71
389
28
-5
#13

Peyton is 2-0 vs Eli and has extra rest vs a Giants team that played on Sunday Night at DAL. The Giants exited preseason with concerns about their OL and safety population and they were turnover prone last week (6). They also allowed a lot of passing yards last week. Denver shredded Baltimore, who has a bit better talent in the secondary, for 462 yards with ease. DEN went 3-0 after the bye on the East Coast last year and has OAK on deck in a Monday Night event. The Giants will be primed to avoid embarrassment with the hype going on here and this is also their only home game for Sept.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 30 NY GIANTS 24
SAN FRANCISCO AT SEATTLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN FRANCISCO 114
201
18
+2
#14
SEATTLE 98
266
21
+1
#12

How important is CenturyLink Field to the Seahawks? Including preseason Seattle has won 12 straight. San Fran’s their last trip here was Harbaugh’s worst lost (42-13). How similar were they last year? Well, only in scoring off (#9 & #11), rushing off (#3 & #4), scoring D (#1 & #2), total D (#3 & #4)! The NFC West takes center stage and deservedly so.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SEATTLE 24 SAN FRANCISCO 20

Phil Steele is a college football analyst who has been publishing his annual College Football Preview since 1995. His magazine is regarded as one of the best in the business.
Google+