By Phil Steele

Very good situation for TEN at home off a short road trip vs SD off a brutal MNF loss, and Back-to-back long road trips. Philip Rivers took advantage of the Eagles missing their starting CB and shook off the media beating he took after their Monday Night opening loss throwing for 419 yards (77%, 3-0) in the upset of Philly. Eddie Royal caught 23 passes with 1 td last year and was never 100% but he is clearly the new go to guy with 3 td rec last week and 5 on the year. The Titans will surely be disappointed blowing a 24-16 lead with 2:00 to go but starting the season 1-1 after playing back-to-back road games vs last year’s #1 and #7 D’s shows their toughness. Locker did struggle last week (148 yards, 57%) but still had a 2-0 ratio and now gets some home cooking versus a D that allowed 480 ypg and 70% completions as well as a combined 5-1 ratio.

Last year vs a Ray Horton defense RB Peterson stormed for 153 yards (6.7) yards on the ground. While CLE’s offense is lacking (18 drives without a td) the defense is stout holding foes to 119 total yards rush (2.0) in the 1st games. While MIN put up 30 pts last week 14 came off a 105 yard KR and 61 yard fmbl return and on 3 drives to the CHI10, they settled for FG’s as Ponder was 2-5 for 21 yards in the redzone. CLE gets WR Gordon back here but this is the first game after the surprising Richardson trade. I’ll call for the home team by 6 as I’m not sold on Ponder vs an embarrassed visitor getting a key weapon back, but losing a key weapon at the same time.

You won’t find a more fired-up QB in the league after a 2-0 start than Tom Brady. His postgame press conference was typical of a 3 td loss as he led his team to 232 yards and 9 FD’s while Geno Smith led the Jets to 318 yards and 15 FD’s. NE was without Amendola (out at least 4 weeks) forcing Brady to almost exclusively go to his only trusted rec Edelman (13 of 16 rec). One definite edge NE does have is having played TB in the preseason each of the L2Y and having dual practices give Belichick extra insight and prep time. Tampa Bay has had a rough start being TWO SECONDS away from being 2-0 with a late loss to the Jets then losing to the Saints on the final play. Now they make a second trip to the Northeast in 3 weeks with a beleaguered QB who despite being a captain last year was not voted one this year. One edge the Bucs do have to their top off season pickup is available and if Revis Island can stop Edelman it limits NE’s options.

This is the 5th meeting in 4 years with Houston dropping both its regular season and playoff games here in 2011. The Texans have come from behind each of the last 2 weeks but on the stat sheet they dominated with a combined 51-28 FD edge and a 901-511 yard edge. The Texans D has held Tennessee with Johnson and SD with Matthews to under 100 ypg and 3.8 ypc making it more difficult on Flacco who struggled last week after Rice (36, 2.8) was injured. Houston’s defensive numbers were all without former Raven Ed Reed. The Ravens offense struggled vs Cleveland last week totaling just 296 yards and 14 points and after facing Denver week #1 will be challenged with a legitimate rush attack with the Texans now using both Tate (7-93) and Foster (19-79). Add in another offensive weapon as rookie Hopkins stepped in for an injured Johnson and caught a 3rd&10, 25 yard rec in OT as well as the game winner finishing 7-117.

The situation leans with DAL getting STL off a road loss vs ATL. DAL fans may be upset with last week’s loss due to a pair of fumbles that gave KC the FG for the margin but honestly their transition to a 4-3 front hasn’t been that bad. Yes they’ve given up 42% on 3rd downs, but that’s been vs an elite QB in the 1st game and an above average QB with an elite RB on the road. They now get an avg QB (7.0 ypa, 5-2 ratio) with a below average skill group to work with (68 ypg rush, 3.2). Yes, Bradford has yet to be sacked but that’s vs ARZ with a retooled defense and an ATL unit with only 1 legit pass rusher (Umenyiora). DAL has Ware, an underrated LB unit and what should be a rowdy home crowd and simply a better offensive unit to back here.

Situation favors NO back at home and on turf vs an ARZ team coming across the country off a close loss to a division foe in week 1 followed by their 1st win for HC Arians. This is also a bad matchup for ARZ with Brees (57-15 ratio last 17 home games) vs a rebuilt ARZ secondary with a rookie nickel DB (Mathieu) and a less than impressive pass rush (1 sk in 74 pass att’s). ARZ also comes in with Fitzgerald (hamstring) at less than 100% and while a bit better than last year they’ve only gained 3.3 and 3.5 ypc on the ground. While NO didn’t get into a rhythm last week due to a weather delay of over an hour on a sloppy field, I really like the matchup of a healthy TE Graham (224 yards, 16.0) at home vs ARZ’s slower LB’s and inexperienced secondary.

The situation favors WAS at home vs a DET team off a long trip to ARZ with CHI and GB on deck. WAS, however, has been mauled in both 1H’s this year getting outgained 695-230 and outFD’d 38-8. The enthusiasm is fading quickly with their 0-2 start and while they’re game planning to protect RGIII by not running the ball (4 att, 1 yard last week) keeping him in the pocket has proved more detrimental (4 sks, 12 qbh). Last week the Lions DT Fairley was a late scratch making all the difference in allowing the Cardinals 348 yards while totaling only 1 sack.

The Bengals had last week’s Monday Night game circled vs the Steelers and beat them at home for the first time in 4 tries. The Bengals ran 79pl to PIT’s 55 and finished with 22-14 FD and 407-278 yard edges. Cincy opened last Sunday as a 1 pt fav which will give the Packers some bulletin board material. The Packers and Rodgers are already in midseason form and while they lost at SF, the 28 points they put up is the most that SF has allowed in the regular season in the last 20 games. Last week after RB Lacy was nicked up, James Starks stepped in rushing for 132 (6.6) opening the passing lane allowing GB to be the first ever with a duo of 125+ rushing and 450+ passing (Rodgers 480, 65%, 4-0). Better offense, better defense and better situation makes this a big Packers’ win.

The Panthers saw a 7-6 4Q lead fade in their opener and were :02 away from a win at Buffalo. The Giants join them at 0-2 thanks to an 8-2 TO deficit before back-to-back huge TV crowds. NY is now in its preferred role with their backs to the wall but not completely thanks to the non-competitive balance of the division. The Giants won here last year 36-7 as the Panthers were gracious hosts finishing -5 in TO’s. After back-to-back games with both mental and physical mistakes, you can expect Coughlin to demand improvement. The reliable and veteran Manning will carry this team and lead the way vs a weak secondary.

The Dolphins won 2 road games last year and have already matched that total. After knocking off Cleveland with high priced FA Wallace having only 1 rec, he caught 9 for 115 last week. Brian Hartline was 9-114 in the opener and Charles Clay also had 5-109 last week giving Miami 3 different 100 yard receivers. The Fins did what you have to do to win on the road committing no TO’s in the opener and playing penalty free last week. Atlanta’s first two games have gone as I expected. After a loss to NO, the Falcons’ D went to a prevent in the 3Q vs St Louis leading 24-3 and without 3 def D starters in the 2H, allowed 3 long td drives (74/6pl, 75/8pl & 80/16pl). Atlanta also was without RB Jackson who was banged up after 3 att’s but Julio Jones carried them with 11 rec for 182 yards. I’ll take Atlanta by 1 on the road.

The Colts were outgained by 12 ypg last year yet still managed 11 wins and a playoff berth. This year they started in the same fashion getting outgained vs Oakland (372-274) but pulling out a win but that magic stopped last week. Luck was just 8-16 for 80 yards in the 2H making very poor decisions under decent pressure. Speaking of pressure, last year when the Colts took to the road and were sacked 3 or more times Luck averaged 17 points per game and was 73-147 (49.7%). San Fran is off a massive game but they have a decent defense (#3 & #4 L2Y) which gets even nastier if off a loss. Last year the 49ers allowed 221 ypg and 12.5 FD’s/gm after tasting defeat. SF also prides itself protecting its home field.

This is a massive letdown spot for SEA after facing Newton on the road in the opener, SF at home on Sunday Night last week with a set of 4 away games in 5 weeks starting with HOU. JAX is on its 2nd straight West Coast game but Bradley was SEA’s DC for the last 4 years. The Jags went to Henne last week and while only facing OAK the team’s only td came on a 49 yard drive with under 3:00 left.

This pair of rookies may be the new wave of AFC East QB’s and Manuel is up one win to start their NFL careers (‘09 Gator Bowl, 33-21). Credit this young Bills team (#30 exp) with rookie HC Marrone as after losing to NE with:05 on the clock, they went 80/9pl this time scoring with :06 left to beat the Panthers. However, now Manuel and the Bills travel for their road opener vs a Rex Ryan D that will not be shy about blitzing. NY had 3 sks vs Freeman in their opener while Buffalo allowed their QB to get sacked 6 times vs Carolina and an outrageous 9 qbh. The Jets were fortunate in week 1 thanks to a bone-headed TB penalty but despite that as well as a close loss at NE it had to give them confidence. The defense is playing up to their coached preseason goals and have allowed their first 2 opponents (LY’s #9 & #1 off) 241 ypg & 10.5 FD’s per game.

The Steelers come in off a Sunday Night loss. After being embarrassed in week #1 by totalling 195 yards and 9 points they played the blitz happy Bengals without All-Pro C Pouncey (IR). This time they did total 278 yards, but only managed 10 points. Chicago is off a comeback win. Jay Cutler and his 19-14 ratio of last year was the ‘perfect fit’ for new head coach Trestman’s offense. With quick reads and getting the ball away quickly the ratio was going to improve but after 2 weeks it stands at 5-3 now taking on the Steelers’ D in Heinz Field. Can’t fade Pittsburgh too quickly as they are in desperate need of righting the ship.