† PITTSBURGH VS MINNESOTA (LONDON)

This is a brutal spot for Pittsburgh off back-to-back primetime games (both losses) and then having to travel to the UK. The Steelers’ offense was nonexistent once C Pouncey went down in the opener (8.5 ppg & 237 ypg). Last week against Chicago the offense showed some life in a 2H comeback, pulling within 27-23 with 10:43 to go. However, they were done in by a -5 TO margin so despite 21-15 FD and 459-258 yard edges, they fell 40-23 and are off to their worst start since 2000. Minnesota also fell to 0-3 last week but nothing fluky about their loss as they were outgained 409-329 as the under performing OL only opened holes for 4.2 ypc (AP 88, 3.5) allowing 6 sacks, 5 tfl and 8 qbh with the sacks being the most allowed in over 5 years. The forecast calls for another wet, soggy Wembley Stadium field and I’ll take the Steelers by 3.

The Ravens make this trip off back-to-back wins but there are concerns with the offense. Baltimore was held to under 17 points at home for the first time in 3 years when they faced Cleveland and last week only had 4 FD’s at halftime but thanks to 2 defensive/special teams td’s could open the offense in the 2H. The Bills, with their rookie HC and rookie QB, have made their presence known. After only losing by 2 to NE they rebounded for a come-from-behind win vs Carolina thanks to CJ Spiller (103, 6.4). Last week Spiller was lost to an injury after just 9 yds and Buffalo trailed 17-6 at the half but again continued to battle and kept it close. Tread lightly with both teams having banged up RB’s (Rice scratched last week) and let’s see how many of Buffalo’s defensive players will return after losing 3 during the Jets game. I’ll take the road team by 3.

The I-71 rivalry is turning into a one-way road. While the Browns see the Bengals in that light, Cincy had won 4 straight vs Cleveland and looked past them in last year’s trip. Don’t see that serving as motivation as the Bengals know last year’s wins in their final 2 games vs PIT and BAL got them a playoff berth and they won their ‘circle the wagons’ game in their Monday Night home opener vs the Steelers. The next step for Cincy is to beat premier teams at home and they did by knocking off GB last week and have NE on deck. The new Browns ownership was battling a media nightmare by trading last year’s #1 pick but silenced critics with an upset over Minnesota. The Browns can carry momentum into this one with a completely legitimate top 10 D. Last week the Browns had 6 sacks and on the season has held last year’s #17, #11 and #2 rush teams to 2.9 ypc.

There are not many times when you have a matchup with a team whose only road win of the season was also the host’s only home loss. In fact, the Jags have won 2 road games the in the last 2 years, both at Indy, while in their last 28 regular season games they’ve gone 5-23 with 3 vs the Horseshoes. Both teams are off West Coast trips with Jacksonville having stayed out west after their loss to Oakland. Indy will obviously be able to expand the playbook with RB Richardson (35 yds, 2.7, 1 td). To put the Jags’ offensive numbers in perspective, Seattle’s 1992 squad holds the record for fewest points in a 16 game schedule and they scored 20 points total their first three games (JAX 11 pts first 10Q’s). Keep in mind, if Gabbert (hand) starts here, he missed 2 weeks prior to week 1 where he aced out 121 yds (46%) with an 0-2 ratio and pathetic 3.5 ypa.

The Seahawks make this trip off a bye (or rather Jacksonville). The Texans are the most underrated team by looking at the scoreboard. Their 2-1 record shows they’ve been outscored 82-70 BUT they’ve outgained SD by 186 yds, Tennessee by 204 yards, and Baltimore by 28 yards. In last week’s loss a 6-3 lead turned into a 17-6 deficit thanks to a 37 yd IR and an 82 yd PR td in under 2:00. Seattle, meanwhile, has outscored foes 86-27 outgaining Carolina 370-253 and SF 290-207. Last year Seattle played only ONE playoff team away from home and in that one game the Wilson led offense totaled 6 pts and 13 FD’s with Houston fitting into that mold.

ARZ may be making another long flight after facing NO but they take on a TB team with a QB that is avg 229 ypg (48%) with a 4-5 ratio in his last 3 home games. Palmer hung 414 yds (64%) with a 4-3 ratio on TB last year and the Bucs bad secondary last year was offset by Oakland’s lack of offensive talent. A true vet knows how to respond off a bad game. Last week Palmer was 18-35 (51%) and in ‘12 he had 2 games in which he threw under 55% in a loss and the next games he threw for 66% (63-95). The opposite of a vet is a QB which has or is losing his teammates respect, blames everyone but himself and after a poor game has another and another. On the season Freeman has yet to top 50% in a game (year to date 45%) and offensive production has fallen from 17 pts in the opener to 14 vs NO and 3 last week vs NE with the L/2 gms coming vs last year’s #32 and #25 D’s. Since Schiano’s 5-4 start TB had lost 8 of 9 (beat ATL resting starters).

It’s contender vs pretender. This is the Lions only home game in a 5 game set and in their first home game they revenged the Vikings who, like the Bears, swept them last year. The Bears off a Sunday night road game against Pittsburgh in what was their first test of the new offense on the road. Chicago was actually outgained 459-258 and outFD’d 21-15 but was +5 in TO’s and walked out of Heinz Field with a 40-23 decision. The Lions went into Washington and came away with a 27-20 win as Stafford led them to 441 yards despite Reggie Bush sitting out. Detroit’s D was also without DT Fairley (leading returning sacker) for a second straight game and the unit wore down in the 4Q allowing 177 yds (42%) in their second of back-to-back road games. In the Bears first 2 games they faced one above avg QB allowing Dalton to throw for 79% in Soldier Field and now they have to face Stafford whose tossed for 64% with 2 of his 3 games on the road.

NFL schedule makers gave Andy Reid a short NFC East reunion tour lasting only 3 weeks but he and the Chiefs took care of the first 2 legs. Now the Chiefs have extra time off a Thursday win to dissect personnel he already knows very well. Remember in Reid’s final game last year the Giants were happy to lay on an embarrassing 42-7 win with Eli throwing 1 of his 5 td’s with under 7:00 left to go up 35-7. Now NY is 0-3, away for a second straight, already with a foot in the coffin waiting for someone to nail it shut. There is ONE stat that explains these disparate records perfectly and that KC leads the NFL handily with +9 TO’s while the Giants trail handily at -9 TO’s. Only 3 teams since 1990 have made playoffs after starting 0-3.

The Jets are gaining momentum outgaining foes by 54, 86 and 185 despite a teething rookie QB. Even with the TO’s they own the #10 and #4 units at this early point while TEN is #28 and #7. The key in the defensive rankings is that the Jets pass def is allowing 47.3% comp (5.7 ypa) while TEN is giving up 64% (6.4 ypa). The Titans off ranking is especially bad seeing as Locker is only game managing (191 ypg, 59%, 3-0, but 6.6 ypc) and defenses are stacking up RB Johnson (85 ypg, 3.7) as they don’t fear the QB. TEN got its win last week vs a San Diego team traveling across the country for the 2nd straight week on the last second. I’ll call for the home team by a FG.

It’s funny how when you play in a division that the other 3 teams are a combined 1-8 all of your problems seemed to be solved or at least go away. The Cowboys had their first “easy win” in almost 2 years leading 17-0 at halftime and pulling away to win by 24 (biggest win last year was by 15 points). Romo was treated to the luxury of play action with Murray rushing for 175 (6.7) but it was the D that had 6 sacks and held St Louis to 1-13 on 3rd downs. So why fade the Cowboys? Last week SD took a 17-10 lead in to the 4Q and after a FG allowed a 94/10pl td drive with 0:15 left in the loss. The Chargers were outgained handily vs the Titans and the Texans. SD OC Whisenhunt also loves playing against the Cowboys as he was 3-0 vs them as a HC pulling an upset each time.

Even though Washington is traveling across country here the situation favors the road team. OAK is off last week’s Monday Night loss vs DEN and has a home game vs SD on deck. WAS has a bye on deck but this is Raiders week for Shanahan (21-7). Washington’s def has given up a ton of passing yds this year (333 ypg) vs a then unknown PHI offense and top tier QB’s with a pair of rookie safeties taking the bulk of snaps. Griffin has now a full camp/preseason of snaps and thru 3 games he has a respectable 63% and 7.0 ypa. With 3 full games of tape on Pryor and a patchwork OL look for Haslett to take advantage of the reduced passing threat here for the win.

PHI may have a slight situational edge with extra rest vs DEN off a MNF game vs OAK and DAL on deck. The reality is that Manning is facing a defense that has a 31-3 ratio in its last 13 games winning just two. The Eagles’ high risk/high reward offense (5 TO’s last week) has exposed its defense which has been on the field 20:00 longer than the offense each of the last 2 weeks. While the Eagles may score, how will they stop a Denver attack that put up 90 points versus Baltimore and the NY Giants, then 37 on Oakland? Vick is a solid fit to Kelly’s new offense but last year he threw for 64% at home and 54% on the road, which means it will get better at a faster pace? Denver should roll here.

What type of marquee matchup is this? Only 3 teams have won 36 regular season games in the last 3 years in GB (36), Atlanta (36), and New England (39). NE just faced TB coached by Belichick's good buddy Schiano. Might Bill have a conversation about TB going 1-1 vs the Falcons last year and then return the favor when TB plays them in 3 weeks?