Daily Blog • August 27, 2014

My 2014 College Football Preview Magazine has so much information in it that it would take months to go thru it all. It is like 128 media guides rolled into one.

Magazine is a loose term for it as the Preview is more like a book with over 100 pages more than any other college football magazine. Not only does it have more pages, but the magazine has 2 to 3 times the amount of information on each page! That gives my magazine 3 to 4 times the amount of information of any other magazine!

I mention all of this because there are even parts of the magazine that I myself forget about during the year. Every spring once I have finished my conference write-ups, Top 40, All-American and All-Conference Teams I wrap up the “other” pages in the magazine. One of those pages that I find a lot of fun is the projected stats which is on page 43.

I have in-depth power ratings which rates each team’s rush offense, pass offense and points scored as well as all three categories for the defense. I have my computer match up each team vs all of their opponents and play the games out during the year. These projected statistics are not some random number I throw into the the magazine to fill up space (I never have ANYTHING in the magazine that is used for filler!). They take into account this year’s team vs this year’s schedule and they are remarkably accurate.

Let me give you a few examples from the last couple of years:

In 2009, Rice returned only 3 starters from a unit that avg’d 41.3 ppg in 2008 and the Owls went on to score a pedestrian 18.3 ppg. Three years ago they returned 9 starters and in my 2010 Preview I declared that they would have the Most Improved Offensive Points in the country and my computer predicted they would avg 28.6 ppg. Amazingly Rice would go on to score 28.7 ppg a 10.4 ppg improvement and my computer was just .1 PPG off!

On the defensive side in 2010, Miami, Oh was my #2 Most Improved Defensive Points allowed team in the country as they returned nine starters from a unit that allowed 34.2 ppg in 2009. My computer projected they would give up 28.0 ppg a 6.2 ppg improvement but even the RedHawks exceeded my expectations and allowed just 23.2 ppg a 11 ppg improvement last year!

I could go on and on with the examples because I find projecting statistics as fascinating as projecting wins and losses.

Today ’s blog takes at look at my computer’s projected stats for every team! Each team has their rush off/def, pass off/def, and points off/def projected averages for the season as well as their ppg and ypg differences. Each conference is sorted by the ypg difference for the entire season and not just for conference games.

Note: These stats are different than what you see in this year's magazine as they reflect player losses i.e. Ohio St's Braxton Miller.

Updated Projected Stats for 2014 Season

Conf Team OFF
RUSH
OFF
PASS
OFF
PTS
DEF
RUSH
DEF
PASS
DEF
PTS
YPG
DIFF
PTS
MARGIN
ACC Florida St 216.8 341.3 45.5 110.8 172.8 16.5 274.4 (1) 29.0 (1)
ACC Virginia Tech 194.1 230.1 26.8 131.9 158.8 19.3 133.6 (15) 7.4 (35)
ACC Clemson 154.4 281.0 31.0 108.8 209.5 20.6 117.1 (20) 10.4 (19)
ACC Louisville 155.6 291.9 31.2 136.0 216.6 25.6 94.8 (31) 5.5 (44)
ACC North Carolina 169.5 280.0 32.3 162.6 218.5 24.6 68.3 (40) 7.7 (34)
ACC NC State 182.4 249.8 28.9 169.1 204.4 27.0 58.7 (44) 1.9 (62)
ACC Pittsburgh 171.1 252.0 30.6 160.3 207.0 26.2 55.8 (46) 4.4 (52)
ACC Miami, Fl 194.4 255.4 32.6 172.3 225.6 27.2 52.0 (48) 5.4 (45)
ACC Duke 172.4 255.5 31.0 181.1 219.8 26.0 27.0 (57) 5.1 (46)
ACC Virginia 163.2 219.8 25.2 156.3 210.2 26.5 16.5 (64) -1.3 (80)
ACC Georgia Tech 280.2 130.8 31.1 173.8 227.7 26.5 9.6 (70) 4.5 (51)
ACC Syracuse 178.9 220.9 25.7 147.6 248.0 27.7 4.1 (74) -2.0 (85)
ACC Boston College 168.0 155.1 21.2 163.1 269.2 31.4 -109.2 (120) -10.2 (118)
ACC Wake Forest 127.0 154.2 19.4 179.3 224.2 26.5 -122.3 (124) -7.1 (111)
American Houston 144.4 334.8 31.1 106.0 216.5 21.5 156.7 (9) 9.6 (26)
American Cincinnati 160.5 288.3 30.9 114.9 232.2 22.9 101.6 (28) 8.1 (33)
American UCF 129.6 264.0 29.5 105.1 209.9 18.2 78.7 (35) 11.3 (13)
American East Carolina 75.3 354.9 30.3 131.7 263.1 28.4 35.5 (53) 1.8 (63)
American Tulsa 145.0 207.3 22.8 136.6 243.2 26.1 -27.4 (88) -3.3 (91)
American SMU 78.5 281.5 22.4 117.3 287.7 29.4 -44.9 (96) -7.0 (110)
American Memphis 124.2 190.8 23.7 113.0 247.2 23.0 -45.2 (97) 0.7 (70)
American Connecticut 98.3 249.7 22.5 153.7 244.7 29.6 -50.4 (103) -7.0 (109)
American South Florida 116.9 210.9 23.5 147.0 232.1 27.7 -51.3 (104) -4.1 (96)
American Temple 111.2 257.9 24.4 153.4 267.2 26.1 -51.5 (105) -1.6 (81)
American Tulane 109.2 199.6 18.8 143.8 250.8 28.3 -85.8 (115) -9.6 (116)
BIG 10 Ohio St 245.0 244.3 33.9 139.4 208.5 23.7 141.4 (13) 10.2 (24)
BIG 10 Wisconsin 281.2 191.6 32.8 146.0 207.8 22.4 119.0 (19) 10.3 (20)
BIG 10 Nebraska 220.9 234.6 33.7 126.5 216.4 21.1 112.7 (24) 12.6 (11)
BIG 10 Michigan St 182.8 256.7 32.2 127.1 209.4 21.8 103.1 (27) 10.5 (18)
BIG 10 Michigan 166.8 266.4 30.7 108.2 228.6 21.7 96.5 (30) 9.0 (29)
BIG 10 Iowa 217.7 245.9 31.2 142.7 232.7 24.9 88.3 (33) 6.4 (40)
BIG 10 Maryland 152.5 284.6 31.9 145.0 216.2 22.8 75.8 (36) 9.1 (27)
BIG 10 Penn St 143.7 290.5 27.7 107.7 258.5 23.9 68.0 (41) 3.8 (56)
BIG 10 Northwestern 168.9 301.6 30.8 155.6 252.1 25.9 62.8 (43) 5.0 (47)
BIG 10 Indiana 170.0 320.5 36.2 188.1 273.8 32.3 28.5 (55) 3.9 (55)
BIG 10 Illinois 123.6 297.8 30.4 202.1 237.3 30.2 -18.1 (84) 0.3 (72)
BIG 10 Minnesota 196.1 183.0 25.4 174.0 241.0 28.6 -35.9 (89) -3.1 (90)
BIG 10 Rutgers 142.3 223.3 24.6 141.9 264.3 26.5 -40.5 (92) -1.9 (84)
BIG 10 Purdue 107.8 242.6 22.6 200.8 242.4 34.1 -92.8 (118) -11.5 (121)
BIG 12 Baylor 205.3 393.0 44.2 130.9 276.1 29.8 191.3 (6) 14.4 (8)
BIG 12 Oklahoma 222.7 269.4 36.3 98.5 237.7 21.7 155.9 (10) 14.6 (7)
BIG 12 Texas 198.0 271.9 31.7 122.7 231.4 22.7 115.8 (21) 9.0 (28)
BIG 12 TCU 125.0 288.2 32.5 94.0 250.3 23.7 68.8 (38) 8.8 (30)
BIG 12 Texas Tech 111.1 398.7 38.0 188.7 267.4 31.3 53.7 (47) 6.8 (38)
BIG 12 Kansas St 163.3 260.3 32.0 129.0 267.7 25.6 26.8 (58) 6.4 (40)
BIG 12 Oklahoma St 140.5 310.3 32.5 155.9 286.4 31.9 8.5 (71) 0.7 (71)
BIG 12 West Virginia 133.6 337.9 30.5 187.1 289.3 34.7 -4.9 (79) -4.2 (97)
BIG 12 Kansas 158.5 183.5 20.2 165.5 265.3 30.6 -88.8 (117) -10.4 (119)
BIG 12 Iowa St 143.9 252.1 27.6 219.0 292.7 39.3 -115.8 (121) -11.7 (122)
CUSA Marshall 196.8 347.6 41.8 109.3 189.6 17.2 245.5 (2) 24.6 (2)
CUSA UTSA 175.8 215.7 27.6 135.9 234.6 22.9 21.0 (62) 4.7 (49)
CUSA Old Dominion 115.4 349.1 34.7 193.9 259.7 33.3 10.9 (68) 1.4 (66)
CUSA Middle Tennessee 182.2 206.9 25.6 165.3 222.3 27.3 1.5 (77) -1.7 (82)
CUSA Louisiana Tech 152.7 249.2 26.1 193.0 223.2 28.5 -14.3 (81) -2.4 (87)
CUSA North Texas 181.1 198.5 25.6 162.4 232.1 25.9 -14.8 (83) -0.3 (74)
CUSA Southern Miss 117.3 232.3 24.8 177.4 215.8 29.2 -43.7 (95) -4.4 (100)
CUSA Rice 187.7 181.1 24.9 172.6 246.2 30.5 -50.0 (102) -5.6 (105)
CUSA Western Kentucky 137.9 269.5 28.9 199.7 259.7 33.1 -52.0 (106) -4.2 (98)
CUSA Florida Atlantic 133.7 219.7 23.0 188.2 218.3 28.4 -53.1 (107) -5.4 (104)
CUSA UAB 164.4 215.3 26.5 203.5 254.7 35.3 -78.4 (114) -8.8 (115)
CUSA UTEP 187.3 191.9 25.1 216.2 251.5 36.1 -88.5 (116) -11.0 (120)
CUSA FIU 116.9 186.9 20.4 193.7 229.1 32.9 -118.9 (123) -12.6 (123)
IND BYU 246.8 282.5 34.7 127.4 231.0 21.8 170.8 (7) 12.9 (10)
IND Notre Dame 169.8 289.7 31.2 174.6 214.1 25.0 70.8 (37) 6.2 (42)
IND Navy 330.3 128.3 31.8 189.9 212.8 27.5 55.9 (45) 4.3 (53)
IND Army 322.7 120.5 29.7 198.2 222.8 31.5 22.3 (61) -1.8 (83)
MAC Bowling Green 196.2 273.2 34.4 145.4 215.3 24.1 108.7 (25) 10.3 (21)
MAC Northern Illinois 290.7 225.2 35.3 170.6 247.0 29.7 98.3 (29) 5.6 (43)
MAC Toledo 236.5 227.6 33.1 148.1 229.9 25.8 86.2 (34) 7.3 (36)
MAC Ball St 181.8 256.8 32.4 206.2 207.9 30.0 24.4 (59) 2.3 (59)
MAC Akron 132.3 270.2 28.2 142.4 245.0 27.0 15.2 (66) 1.1 (69)
MAC Central Michigan 156.7 237.2 29.4 182.7 203.6 25.8 7.6 (72) 3.6 (57)
MAC Buffalo 184.8 216.8 28.0 172.6 226.5 29.1 2.4 (75) -1.1 (76)
MAC Ohio 138.5 233.1 26.0 169.0 244.7 29.6 -42.1 (93) -3.6 (93)
MAC Kent St 183.7 196.6 24.8 215.0 214.3 28.9 -49.0 (100) -4.1 (95)
MAC Western Michigan 130.8 235.4 26.0 227.8 205.8 32.4 -67.4 (111) -6.4 (108)
MAC Eastern Michigan 186.3 189.6 25.9 224.0 269.5 38.8 -117.6 (122) -12.9 (124)
MAC Massachusetts 129.6 192.0 19.7 233.4 244.9 35.6 -156.7 (126) -15.9 (127)
MAC Miami, Oh 120.5 180.2 18.9 210.8 247.9 33.8 -158.0 (128) -14.9 (126)
MTW Boise St 169.0 285.6 33.9 162.9 199.9 22.8 91.8 (32) 11.2 (14)
MTW Fresno St 178.5 279.6 32.5 152.8 240.9 28.2 64.3 (42) 4.3 (54)
MTW Colorado St 144.2 282.2 32.0 152.4 232.4 27.4 41.7 (51) 4.6 (50)
MTW Utah St 145.5 244.2 27.1 116.1 232.5 22.3 41.2 (52) 4.8 (48)
MTW San Diego St 161.9 251.9 29.3 128.9 262.5 27.7 22.4 (60) 1.5 (65)
MTW Nevada 198.1 243.7 29.4 183.4 251.4 29.3 7.0 (73) 0.1 (73)
MTW Air Force 273.0 153.3 32.1 208.0 232.7 33.3 -14.3 (81) -1.2 (78)
MTW San Jose St 151.0 237.8 26.9 172.0 259.2 30.3 -42.4 (94) -3.3 (92)
MTW New Mexico 271.4 147.4 30.3 212.3 252.7 36.5 -46.2 (98) -6.2 (107)
MTW Hawaii 113.6 283.2 27.5 176.7 269.9 32.2 -49.8 (101) -4.6 (102)
MTW Wyoming 153.8 222.8 25.3 179.3 259.3 33.0 -62.0 (109) -7.8 (112)
MTW UNLV 152.1 262.8 27.3 240.5 243.3 35.5 -68.8 (112) -8.2 (113)
PAC 12 Oregon 293.6 292.3 41.3 124.6 235.7 23.0 225.6 (3) 18.3 (5)
PAC 12 USC 197.1 270.3 33.3 98.5 236.2 21.7 132.8 (16) 11.6 (12)
PAC 12 UCLA 194.9 292.5 34.9 154.4 218.3 24.6 114.8 (22) 10.3 (22)
PAC 12 Washington 215.1 269.2 32.9 116.7 263.2 24.3 104.3 (26) 8.6 (31)
PAC 12 Stanford 177.6 260.9 32.2 117.5 252.6 21.9 68.4 (39) 10.3 (23)
PAC 12 Oregon St 107.8 343.4 31.1 160.1 244.6 27.9 46.6 (49) 3.3 (58)
PAC 12 Arizona St 186.1 280.4 35.0 168.6 264.8 32.9 33.2 (54) 2.1 (61)
PAC 12 Arizona 229.5 229.4 30.4 176.5 261.6 28.9 20.8 (63) 1.5 (64)
PAC 12 Utah 167.7 251.2 32.8 135.6 270.5 26.1 12.8 (67) 6.7 (39)
PAC 12 California 130.9 355.3 31.7 154.7 321.3 34.1 10.2 (69) -2.4 (88)
PAC 12 Washington St 30.7 391.1 30.1 183.9 304.1 34.0 -66.1 (110) -3.9 (94)
PAC 12 Colorado 120.0 241.0 26.1 195.6 265.1 34.3 -99.7 (119) -8.2 (114)
SEC Alabama 246.7 256.5 37.1 98.2 190.1 15.8 214.9 (4) 21.3 (3)
SEC Georgia 198.0 311.0 39.3 112.8 194.3 19.7 201.9 (5) 19.6 (4)
SEC Mississippi 181.7 297.4 30.0 110.5 199.1 19.5 169.5 (8) 10.5 (17)
SEC South Carolina 214.8 287.4 34.8 127.2 226.9 24.0 148.2 (11) 10.8 (16)
SEC LSU 225.2 237.3 33.5 132.5 182.7 19.5 147.3 (12) 13.9 (9)
SEC Auburn 268.8 255.6 38.6 138.6 244.3 23.2 141.4 (13) 15.3 (6)
SEC Mississippi St 175.3 285.5 29.3 127.0 203.8 22.0 130.0 (17) 7.3 (37)
SEC Florida 176.0 239.0 28.2 108.4 183.3 18.1 123.3 (18) 10.2 (25)
SEC Texas A&M 179.2 294.5 35.6 187.1 244.4 27.4 42.1 (50) 8.3 (32)
SEC Arkansas 248.4 206.9 30.6 184.6 243.2 29.2 27.5 (56) 1.4 (67)
SEC Missouri 182.1 246.8 28.3 167.9 264.2 29.6 -3.2 (78) -1.3 (79)
SEC Tennessee 135.8 233.2 24.4 181.8 205.6 25.6 -18.3 (85) -1.1 (77)
SEC Vanderbilt 159.0 194.5 24.9 138.1 253.1 27.6 -37.7 (90) -2.7 (89)
SEC Kentucky 113.5 274.1 25.7 182.8 245.2 30.0 -40.3 (91) -4.3 (99)
SUN Louisiana 228.0 253.3 36.0 123.1 245.3 25.1 112.9 (23) 10.9 (15)
SUN Troy St 162.5 290.1 33.9 168.0 268.7 31.7 15.9 (65) 2.3 (60)
SUN Arkansas St 173.3 204.2 27.0 162.0 214.0 25.7 1.5 (76) 1.3 (68)
SUN South Alabama 160.6 264.4 30.4 209.6 228.6 31.1 -13.3 (80) -0.6 (75)
SUN Texas St 182.3 202.3 27.2 183.4 222.2 29.6 -21.1 (86) -2.3 (86)
SUN Idaho 142.2 244.1 26.1 161.1 250.7 31.9 -25.4 (87) -5.8 (106)
SUN ULM 127.0 244.3 24.7 172.2 248.0 29.3 -48.8 (99) -4.7 (103)
SUN Georgia Southern 265.4 125.4 27.3 205.2 245.2 31.7 -59.6 (108) -4.4 (101)
SUN Appalachian St 148.6 235.0 25.3 180.9 279.8 35.0 -77.0 (113) -9.7 (117)
SUN New Mexico St 154.4 219.2 24.9 277.8 246.4 39.5 -150.6 (125) -14.6 (125)
SUN Georgia St 93.1 230.9 21.1 226.1 255.5 37.1 -157.6 (127) -16.0 (128)