Daily Blog • August 27, 2014 |
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My 2014 College Football Preview Magazine has so much information in it that it would take months to go thru it all. It is like 128 media guides rolled into one.
Magazine is a loose term for it as the Preview is more like a book with over 100 pages more than any other college football magazine. Not only does it have more pages, but the magazine has 2 to 3 times the amount of information on each page! That gives my magazine 3 to 4 times the amount of information of any other magazine!
I mention all of this because there are even parts of the magazine that I myself forget about during the year. Every spring once I have finished my conference write-ups, Top 40, All-American and All-Conference Teams I wrap up the “other” pages in the magazine. One of those pages that I find a lot of fun is the projected stats which is on page 43.
I have in-depth power ratings which rates each team’s rush offense, pass offense and points scored as well as all three categories for the defense. I have my computer match up each team vs all of their opponents and play the games out during the year. These projected statistics are not some random number I throw into the the magazine to fill up space (I never have ANYTHING in the magazine that is used for filler!). They take into account this year’s team vs this year’s schedule and they are remarkably accurate.
Let me give you a few examples from the last couple of years:
In 2009, Rice returned only 3 starters from a unit that avg’d 41.3 ppg in 2008 and the Owls went on to score a pedestrian 18.3 ppg. Three years ago they returned 9 starters and in my 2010 Preview I declared that they would have the Most Improved Offensive Points in the country and my computer predicted they would avg 28.6 ppg. Amazingly Rice would go on to score 28.7 ppg a 10.4 ppg improvement and my computer was just .1 PPG off!
On the defensive side in 2010, Miami, Oh was my #2 Most Improved Defensive Points allowed team in the country as they returned nine starters from a unit that allowed 34.2 ppg in 2009. My computer projected they would give up 28.0 ppg a 6.2 ppg improvement but even the RedHawks exceeded my expectations and allowed just 23.2 ppg a 11 ppg improvement last year!
I could go on and on with the examples because I find projecting statistics as fascinating as projecting wins and losses.
Today ’s blog takes at look at my computer’s projected stats for every team! Each team has their rush off/def, pass off/def, and points off/def projected averages for the season as well as their ppg and ypg differences. Each conference is sorted by the ypg difference for the entire season and not just for conference games.
Note: These stats are different than what you see in this year's magazine as they reflect player losses i.e. Ohio St's Braxton Miller.
Updated Projected Stats for 2014 Season
Conf | Team | OFF RUSH |
OFF PASS |
OFF PTS |
DEF RUSH |
DEF PASS |
DEF PTS |
YPG DIFF |
PTS MARGIN |
ACC | Florida St | 216.8 | 341.3 | 45.5 | 110.8 | 172.8 | 16.5 | 274.4 (1) | 29.0 (1) |
ACC | Virginia Tech | 194.1 | 230.1 | 26.8 | 131.9 | 158.8 | 19.3 | 133.6 (15) | 7.4 (35) |
ACC | Clemson | 154.4 | 281.0 | 31.0 | 108.8 | 209.5 | 20.6 | 117.1 (20) | 10.4 (19) |
ACC | Louisville | 155.6 | 291.9 | 31.2 | 136.0 | 216.6 | 25.6 | 94.8 (31) | 5.5 (44) |
ACC | North Carolina | 169.5 | 280.0 | 32.3 | 162.6 | 218.5 | 24.6 | 68.3 (40) | 7.7 (34) |
ACC | NC State | 182.4 | 249.8 | 28.9 | 169.1 | 204.4 | 27.0 | 58.7 (44) | 1.9 (62) |
ACC | Pittsburgh | 171.1 | 252.0 | 30.6 | 160.3 | 207.0 | 26.2 | 55.8 (46) | 4.4 (52) |
ACC | Miami, Fl | 194.4 | 255.4 | 32.6 | 172.3 | 225.6 | 27.2 | 52.0 (48) | 5.4 (45) |
ACC | Duke | 172.4 | 255.5 | 31.0 | 181.1 | 219.8 | 26.0 | 27.0 (57) | 5.1 (46) |
ACC | Virginia | 163.2 | 219.8 | 25.2 | 156.3 | 210.2 | 26.5 | 16.5 (64) | -1.3 (80) |
ACC | Georgia Tech | 280.2 | 130.8 | 31.1 | 173.8 | 227.7 | 26.5 | 9.6 (70) | 4.5 (51) |
ACC | Syracuse | 178.9 | 220.9 | 25.7 | 147.6 | 248.0 | 27.7 | 4.1 (74) | -2.0 (85) |
ACC | Boston College | 168.0 | 155.1 | 21.2 | 163.1 | 269.2 | 31.4 | -109.2 (120) | -10.2 (118) |
ACC | Wake Forest | 127.0 | 154.2 | 19.4 | 179.3 | 224.2 | 26.5 | -122.3 (124) | -7.1 (111) |
American | Houston | 144.4 | 334.8 | 31.1 | 106.0 | 216.5 | 21.5 | 156.7 (9) | 9.6 (26) |
American | Cincinnati | 160.5 | 288.3 | 30.9 | 114.9 | 232.2 | 22.9 | 101.6 (28) | 8.1 (33) |
American | UCF | 129.6 | 264.0 | 29.5 | 105.1 | 209.9 | 18.2 | 78.7 (35) | 11.3 (13) |
American | East Carolina | 75.3 | 354.9 | 30.3 | 131.7 | 263.1 | 28.4 | 35.5 (53) | 1.8 (63) |
American | Tulsa | 145.0 | 207.3 | 22.8 | 136.6 | 243.2 | 26.1 | -27.4 (88) | -3.3 (91) |
American | SMU | 78.5 | 281.5 | 22.4 | 117.3 | 287.7 | 29.4 | -44.9 (96) | -7.0 (110) |
American | Memphis | 124.2 | 190.8 | 23.7 | 113.0 | 247.2 | 23.0 | -45.2 (97) | 0.7 (70) |
American | Connecticut | 98.3 | 249.7 | 22.5 | 153.7 | 244.7 | 29.6 | -50.4 (103) | -7.0 (109) |
American | South Florida | 116.9 | 210.9 | 23.5 | 147.0 | 232.1 | 27.7 | -51.3 (104) | -4.1 (96) |
American | Temple | 111.2 | 257.9 | 24.4 | 153.4 | 267.2 | 26.1 | -51.5 (105) | -1.6 (81) |
American | Tulane | 109.2 | 199.6 | 18.8 | 143.8 | 250.8 | 28.3 | -85.8 (115) | -9.6 (116) |
BIG 10 | Ohio St | 245.0 | 244.3 | 33.9 | 139.4 | 208.5 | 23.7 | 141.4 (13) | 10.2 (24) |
BIG 10 | Wisconsin | 281.2 | 191.6 | 32.8 | 146.0 | 207.8 | 22.4 | 119.0 (19) | 10.3 (20) |
BIG 10 | Nebraska | 220.9 | 234.6 | 33.7 | 126.5 | 216.4 | 21.1 | 112.7 (24) | 12.6 (11) |
BIG 10 | Michigan St | 182.8 | 256.7 | 32.2 | 127.1 | 209.4 | 21.8 | 103.1 (27) | 10.5 (18) |
BIG 10 | Michigan | 166.8 | 266.4 | 30.7 | 108.2 | 228.6 | 21.7 | 96.5 (30) | 9.0 (29) |
BIG 10 | Iowa | 217.7 | 245.9 | 31.2 | 142.7 | 232.7 | 24.9 | 88.3 (33) | 6.4 (40) |
BIG 10 | Maryland | 152.5 | 284.6 | 31.9 | 145.0 | 216.2 | 22.8 | 75.8 (36) | 9.1 (27) |
BIG 10 | Penn St | 143.7 | 290.5 | 27.7 | 107.7 | 258.5 | 23.9 | 68.0 (41) | 3.8 (56) |
BIG 10 | Northwestern | 168.9 | 301.6 | 30.8 | 155.6 | 252.1 | 25.9 | 62.8 (43) | 5.0 (47) |
BIG 10 | Indiana | 170.0 | 320.5 | 36.2 | 188.1 | 273.8 | 32.3 | 28.5 (55) | 3.9 (55) |
BIG 10 | Illinois | 123.6 | 297.8 | 30.4 | 202.1 | 237.3 | 30.2 | -18.1 (84) | 0.3 (72) |
BIG 10 | Minnesota | 196.1 | 183.0 | 25.4 | 174.0 | 241.0 | 28.6 | -35.9 (89) | -3.1 (90) |
BIG 10 | Rutgers | 142.3 | 223.3 | 24.6 | 141.9 | 264.3 | 26.5 | -40.5 (92) | -1.9 (84) |
BIG 10 | Purdue | 107.8 | 242.6 | 22.6 | 200.8 | 242.4 | 34.1 | -92.8 (118) | -11.5 (121) |
BIG 12 | Baylor | 205.3 | 393.0 | 44.2 | 130.9 | 276.1 | 29.8 | 191.3 (6) | 14.4 (8) |
BIG 12 | Oklahoma | 222.7 | 269.4 | 36.3 | 98.5 | 237.7 | 21.7 | 155.9 (10) | 14.6 (7) |
BIG 12 | Texas | 198.0 | 271.9 | 31.7 | 122.7 | 231.4 | 22.7 | 115.8 (21) | 9.0 (28) |
BIG 12 | TCU | 125.0 | 288.2 | 32.5 | 94.0 | 250.3 | 23.7 | 68.8 (38) | 8.8 (30) |
BIG 12 | Texas Tech | 111.1 | 398.7 | 38.0 | 188.7 | 267.4 | 31.3 | 53.7 (47) | 6.8 (38) |
BIG 12 | Kansas St | 163.3 | 260.3 | 32.0 | 129.0 | 267.7 | 25.6 | 26.8 (58) | 6.4 (40) |
BIG 12 | Oklahoma St | 140.5 | 310.3 | 32.5 | 155.9 | 286.4 | 31.9 | 8.5 (71) | 0.7 (71) |
BIG 12 | West Virginia | 133.6 | 337.9 | 30.5 | 187.1 | 289.3 | 34.7 | -4.9 (79) | -4.2 (97) |
BIG 12 | Kansas | 158.5 | 183.5 | 20.2 | 165.5 | 265.3 | 30.6 | -88.8 (117) | -10.4 (119) |
BIG 12 | Iowa St | 143.9 | 252.1 | 27.6 | 219.0 | 292.7 | 39.3 | -115.8 (121) | -11.7 (122) |
CUSA | Marshall | 196.8 | 347.6 | 41.8 | 109.3 | 189.6 | 17.2 | 245.5 (2) | 24.6 (2) |
CUSA | UTSA | 175.8 | 215.7 | 27.6 | 135.9 | 234.6 | 22.9 | 21.0 (62) | 4.7 (49) |
CUSA | Old Dominion | 115.4 | 349.1 | 34.7 | 193.9 | 259.7 | 33.3 | 10.9 (68) | 1.4 (66) |
CUSA | Middle Tennessee | 182.2 | 206.9 | 25.6 | 165.3 | 222.3 | 27.3 | 1.5 (77) | -1.7 (82) |
CUSA | Louisiana Tech | 152.7 | 249.2 | 26.1 | 193.0 | 223.2 | 28.5 | -14.3 (81) | -2.4 (87) |
CUSA | North Texas | 181.1 | 198.5 | 25.6 | 162.4 | 232.1 | 25.9 | -14.8 (83) | -0.3 (74) |
CUSA | Southern Miss | 117.3 | 232.3 | 24.8 | 177.4 | 215.8 | 29.2 | -43.7 (95) | -4.4 (100) |
CUSA | Rice | 187.7 | 181.1 | 24.9 | 172.6 | 246.2 | 30.5 | -50.0 (102) | -5.6 (105) |
CUSA | Western Kentucky | 137.9 | 269.5 | 28.9 | 199.7 | 259.7 | 33.1 | -52.0 (106) | -4.2 (98) |
CUSA | Florida Atlantic | 133.7 | 219.7 | 23.0 | 188.2 | 218.3 | 28.4 | -53.1 (107) | -5.4 (104) |
CUSA | UAB | 164.4 | 215.3 | 26.5 | 203.5 | 254.7 | 35.3 | -78.4 (114) | -8.8 (115) |
CUSA | UTEP | 187.3 | 191.9 | 25.1 | 216.2 | 251.5 | 36.1 | -88.5 (116) | -11.0 (120) |
CUSA | FIU | 116.9 | 186.9 | 20.4 | 193.7 | 229.1 | 32.9 | -118.9 (123) | -12.6 (123) |
IND | BYU | 246.8 | 282.5 | 34.7 | 127.4 | 231.0 | 21.8 | 170.8 (7) | 12.9 (10) |
IND | Notre Dame | 169.8 | 289.7 | 31.2 | 174.6 | 214.1 | 25.0 | 70.8 (37) | 6.2 (42) |
IND | Navy | 330.3 | 128.3 | 31.8 | 189.9 | 212.8 | 27.5 | 55.9 (45) | 4.3 (53) |
IND | Army | 322.7 | 120.5 | 29.7 | 198.2 | 222.8 | 31.5 | 22.3 (61) | -1.8 (83) |
MAC | Bowling Green | 196.2 | 273.2 | 34.4 | 145.4 | 215.3 | 24.1 | 108.7 (25) | 10.3 (21) |
MAC | Northern Illinois | 290.7 | 225.2 | 35.3 | 170.6 | 247.0 | 29.7 | 98.3 (29) | 5.6 (43) |
MAC | Toledo | 236.5 | 227.6 | 33.1 | 148.1 | 229.9 | 25.8 | 86.2 (34) | 7.3 (36) |
MAC | Ball St | 181.8 | 256.8 | 32.4 | 206.2 | 207.9 | 30.0 | 24.4 (59) | 2.3 (59) |
MAC | Akron | 132.3 | 270.2 | 28.2 | 142.4 | 245.0 | 27.0 | 15.2 (66) | 1.1 (69) |
MAC | Central Michigan | 156.7 | 237.2 | 29.4 | 182.7 | 203.6 | 25.8 | 7.6 (72) | 3.6 (57) |
MAC | Buffalo | 184.8 | 216.8 | 28.0 | 172.6 | 226.5 | 29.1 | 2.4 (75) | -1.1 (76) |
MAC | Ohio | 138.5 | 233.1 | 26.0 | 169.0 | 244.7 | 29.6 | -42.1 (93) | -3.6 (93) |
MAC | Kent St | 183.7 | 196.6 | 24.8 | 215.0 | 214.3 | 28.9 | -49.0 (100) | -4.1 (95) |
MAC | Western Michigan | 130.8 | 235.4 | 26.0 | 227.8 | 205.8 | 32.4 | -67.4 (111) | -6.4 (108) |
MAC | Eastern Michigan | 186.3 | 189.6 | 25.9 | 224.0 | 269.5 | 38.8 | -117.6 (122) | -12.9 (124) |
MAC | Massachusetts | 129.6 | 192.0 | 19.7 | 233.4 | 244.9 | 35.6 | -156.7 (126) | -15.9 (127) |
MAC | Miami, Oh | 120.5 | 180.2 | 18.9 | 210.8 | 247.9 | 33.8 | -158.0 (128) | -14.9 (126) |
MTW | Boise St | 169.0 | 285.6 | 33.9 | 162.9 | 199.9 | 22.8 | 91.8 (32) | 11.2 (14) |
MTW | Fresno St | 178.5 | 279.6 | 32.5 | 152.8 | 240.9 | 28.2 | 64.3 (42) | 4.3 (54) |
MTW | Colorado St | 144.2 | 282.2 | 32.0 | 152.4 | 232.4 | 27.4 | 41.7 (51) | 4.6 (50) |
MTW | Utah St | 145.5 | 244.2 | 27.1 | 116.1 | 232.5 | 22.3 | 41.2 (52) | 4.8 (48) |
MTW | San Diego St | 161.9 | 251.9 | 29.3 | 128.9 | 262.5 | 27.7 | 22.4 (60) | 1.5 (65) |
MTW | Nevada | 198.1 | 243.7 | 29.4 | 183.4 | 251.4 | 29.3 | 7.0 (73) | 0.1 (73) |
MTW | Air Force | 273.0 | 153.3 | 32.1 | 208.0 | 232.7 | 33.3 | -14.3 (81) | -1.2 (78) |
MTW | San Jose St | 151.0 | 237.8 | 26.9 | 172.0 | 259.2 | 30.3 | -42.4 (94) | -3.3 (92) |
MTW | New Mexico | 271.4 | 147.4 | 30.3 | 212.3 | 252.7 | 36.5 | -46.2 (98) | -6.2 (107) |
MTW | Hawaii | 113.6 | 283.2 | 27.5 | 176.7 | 269.9 | 32.2 | -49.8 (101) | -4.6 (102) |
MTW | Wyoming | 153.8 | 222.8 | 25.3 | 179.3 | 259.3 | 33.0 | -62.0 (109) | -7.8 (112) |
MTW | UNLV | 152.1 | 262.8 | 27.3 | 240.5 | 243.3 | 35.5 | -68.8 (112) | -8.2 (113) |
PAC 12 | Oregon | 293.6 | 292.3 | 41.3 | 124.6 | 235.7 | 23.0 | 225.6 (3) | 18.3 (5) |
PAC 12 | USC | 197.1 | 270.3 | 33.3 | 98.5 | 236.2 | 21.7 | 132.8 (16) | 11.6 (12) |
PAC 12 | UCLA | 194.9 | 292.5 | 34.9 | 154.4 | 218.3 | 24.6 | 114.8 (22) | 10.3 (22) |
PAC 12 | Washington | 215.1 | 269.2 | 32.9 | 116.7 | 263.2 | 24.3 | 104.3 (26) | 8.6 (31) |
PAC 12 | Stanford | 177.6 | 260.9 | 32.2 | 117.5 | 252.6 | 21.9 | 68.4 (39) | 10.3 (23) |
PAC 12 | Oregon St | 107.8 | 343.4 | 31.1 | 160.1 | 244.6 | 27.9 | 46.6 (49) | 3.3 (58) |
PAC 12 | Arizona St | 186.1 | 280.4 | 35.0 | 168.6 | 264.8 | 32.9 | 33.2 (54) | 2.1 (61) |
PAC 12 | Arizona | 229.5 | 229.4 | 30.4 | 176.5 | 261.6 | 28.9 | 20.8 (63) | 1.5 (64) |
PAC 12 | Utah | 167.7 | 251.2 | 32.8 | 135.6 | 270.5 | 26.1 | 12.8 (67) | 6.7 (39) |
PAC 12 | California | 130.9 | 355.3 | 31.7 | 154.7 | 321.3 | 34.1 | 10.2 (69) | -2.4 (88) |
PAC 12 | Washington St | 30.7 | 391.1 | 30.1 | 183.9 | 304.1 | 34.0 | -66.1 (110) | -3.9 (94) |
PAC 12 | Colorado | 120.0 | 241.0 | 26.1 | 195.6 | 265.1 | 34.3 | -99.7 (119) | -8.2 (114) |
SEC | Alabama | 246.7 | 256.5 | 37.1 | 98.2 | 190.1 | 15.8 | 214.9 (4) | 21.3 (3) |
SEC | Georgia | 198.0 | 311.0 | 39.3 | 112.8 | 194.3 | 19.7 | 201.9 (5) | 19.6 (4) |
SEC | Mississippi | 181.7 | 297.4 | 30.0 | 110.5 | 199.1 | 19.5 | 169.5 (8) | 10.5 (17) |
SEC | South Carolina | 214.8 | 287.4 | 34.8 | 127.2 | 226.9 | 24.0 | 148.2 (11) | 10.8 (16) |
SEC | LSU | 225.2 | 237.3 | 33.5 | 132.5 | 182.7 | 19.5 | 147.3 (12) | 13.9 (9) |
SEC | Auburn | 268.8 | 255.6 | 38.6 | 138.6 | 244.3 | 23.2 | 141.4 (13) | 15.3 (6) |
SEC | Mississippi St | 175.3 | 285.5 | 29.3 | 127.0 | 203.8 | 22.0 | 130.0 (17) | 7.3 (37) |
SEC | Florida | 176.0 | 239.0 | 28.2 | 108.4 | 183.3 | 18.1 | 123.3 (18) | 10.2 (25) |
SEC | Texas A&M | 179.2 | 294.5 | 35.6 | 187.1 | 244.4 | 27.4 | 42.1 (50) | 8.3 (32) |
SEC | Arkansas | 248.4 | 206.9 | 30.6 | 184.6 | 243.2 | 29.2 | 27.5 (56) | 1.4 (67) |
SEC | Missouri | 182.1 | 246.8 | 28.3 | 167.9 | 264.2 | 29.6 | -3.2 (78) | -1.3 (79) |
SEC | Tennessee | 135.8 | 233.2 | 24.4 | 181.8 | 205.6 | 25.6 | -18.3 (85) | -1.1 (77) |
SEC | Vanderbilt | 159.0 | 194.5 | 24.9 | 138.1 | 253.1 | 27.6 | -37.7 (90) | -2.7 (89) |
SEC | Kentucky | 113.5 | 274.1 | 25.7 | 182.8 | 245.2 | 30.0 | -40.3 (91) | -4.3 (99) |
SUN | Louisiana | 228.0 | 253.3 | 36.0 | 123.1 | 245.3 | 25.1 | 112.9 (23) | 10.9 (15) |
SUN | Troy St | 162.5 | 290.1 | 33.9 | 168.0 | 268.7 | 31.7 | 15.9 (65) | 2.3 (60) |
SUN | Arkansas St | 173.3 | 204.2 | 27.0 | 162.0 | 214.0 | 25.7 | 1.5 (76) | 1.3 (68) |
SUN | South Alabama | 160.6 | 264.4 | 30.4 | 209.6 | 228.6 | 31.1 | -13.3 (80) | -0.6 (75) |
SUN | Texas St | 182.3 | 202.3 | 27.2 | 183.4 | 222.2 | 29.6 | -21.1 (86) | -2.3 (86) |
SUN | Idaho | 142.2 | 244.1 | 26.1 | 161.1 | 250.7 | 31.9 | -25.4 (87) | -5.8 (106) |
SUN | ULM | 127.0 | 244.3 | 24.7 | 172.2 | 248.0 | 29.3 | -48.8 (99) | -4.7 (103) |
SUN | Georgia Southern | 265.4 | 125.4 | 27.3 | 205.2 | 245.2 | 31.7 | -59.6 (108) | -4.4 (101) |
SUN | Appalachian St | 148.6 | 235.0 | 25.3 | 180.9 | 279.8 | 35.0 | -77.0 (113) | -9.7 (117) |
SUN | New Mexico St | 154.4 | 219.2 | 24.9 | 277.8 | 246.4 | 39.5 | -150.6 (125) | -14.6 (125) |
SUN | Georgia St | 93.1 | 230.9 | 21.1 | 226.1 | 255.5 | 37.1 | -157.6 (127) | -16.0 (128) |