| Daily Blog • July 29, 2014 |
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Upset Meter 2014
Last year, I was wondering if there was any value in predicting future success/failure for teams that pulled a bunch of upsets a year prior and on the flip side teams that were upset numerous times in the previous year.
My hypothesis going into my research was that teams that pulled many upsets the previous year would be overvalued and see their record get weaker the following year as teams would take them more seriously and the experts in Las Vegas would adjust their lines. Similarly, teams that were upset numerous times as favorites the previous year would be undervalued and would see their record improve.
The results coincided with my original predictions as in the last 7 years, teams that pulled 3 or more net upsets (upset wins-upset losses) the previous year would see their record get weaker or stay the same 48 out of 62 times for a 77% success rate.
Here are the teams that benefited from 3 or more net upset wins last year and have an 77% chance of seeing their record either get weaker or stay the same in 2014.
Going Down in 2014?
(77% chance last 7 years)
| Team | Net Upsets in 2013 |
| Duke | +4 |
| Michigan St | +3 |
| Syracuse | +3 |
| UCLA | +3 |
| UNLV | +3 |
| Tulane | +3 |
| UCF | +3 |
| Auburn | +3 |
Duke had a magical 2013 season as they won 10 games for the first time in school history. In their season they upset Virginia (+2’), Virginia Tech (+12’), Miami, Fl (+3’) and North Carolina (+4’) and won all 6 of their games that they were a favorite in. Unfortunately that means they could be heading for a weaker season in 2014 as they may be overvalued.
Although not as strong, on the opposite end, teams that had a -3 or more net upset rate the previous year would either see their record improve or stay the same on 50 out on 73 occasions for a 68% success rate.
Here are the teams that unfortunately were -3 or more in net upsets last year meaning that they were upset as a favorite more than they pulled upsets. On the positive side for 2014, these teams have a 68% chance of seeing their improve or stay the same this year.
Going Up in 2014?
(68% chance last 7 years)
| Team | Net Upsets in 2013 |
| Florida | -4 |
| Georgia | -4 |
| Tulsa | -4 |
| Arizona St | -3 |
| Marshall | -3 |
| Rutgers | -3 |
| TCU | -3 |
Most of these teams were underachievers in 2013 and it comes as no surprise that Florida ties for the top of this list as they clearly underachieved last year. The Gators were favored in 8 of their 12 games. They were upset 4 times against Miami, Fl (-3), Missouri (-3), Vanderbilt (-10) and Georgia Southern (-28) but on the positive side have a 68% chance of improving this year according to the Upset Meter. Georgia also was at the top as they were favored in 12 of their 13 games and were upset 4 times against Clemson (-2’), Missouri (-7), Vanderbilt (-6’) and Nebraska (-8’).
Clearly along with TO’s = Turnaround, YPP Factor, my Stock Market Indicator, the Upset Meter is yet another way in determining the future success or failure in evaluating teams for the upcoming season.