First of all, let’s explain what ypp is exactly. A ypp is simply yards per point. An offense is more efficient when their ypp is a lower number like in golf. If a team had an offensive ypp of 10.0, that would mean for every 200 yards they gained, they scored 20 points. Meanwhile, if they had an offensive ypp of 20.0, then for every 200 yards they gained, they only scored 10 points. On the other side of the ball, defenses want to have a higher ypp. Inverting the same thought, if a team allowed 200 yards and had a 20.0 ypp, that means they would allow just 10 points for every 200 yards the opposition traveled, whereas a 10.0 ypp would be 20 points for every 200 yards allowed. When I started this research in 1990, the average ypp for a team was 15.44 and the median was 15.49. It surprises me how much the median has dropped inside this decade.

Offensive YPP

Last year the avg was just 14.6 and the median was 13.85. I found teams that have a high offensive ypp (move the ball but do not score) the previous year generally have a stronger record the next season. Let’s look at teams that had an unusually high ypp the previous year (an inefficient offense). If you look at the chart below you will see that 28 teams have had a ypp greater than 22.3 since 1990 and ALL 28 have had a stronger or identical record the next year. Last year no team was higher than 22.3 but THREE teams fit that criteria this season (Massachusetts, Miami, Oh and FIU). New Mexico was the last with a 24.68 Off YPP in 2011 and after a 1-11 season went 4-9 in 2012. As you can see, the chart goes to 17.5, which still has a solid success record, as teams will either have the same or a stronger record 75.6% of the time.

Teams that had an extremely low ypp the previous year usually have a weaker record the next season. The statistics are not as dominant as the high YPP, probably because there are some teams that benefit from turnovers on a yearly basis, keeping their ypp low. Still, according to the chart teams whose ypp were less than 11.57 the previous year had either a weaker or the same record 74.4% of the time the next year. There are a lot of teams that fit into the category of under 13.57. Looking at the history of the offensive ypp, these teams have a 67.2% chance of a weaker or same record this season.

2013 Offensive YPP

Defensive YPP

Now let’s take a look at the teams under the defensive ypp that were not so fortunate last year. As the chart below shows, if a team allows a defensive ypp of 12.65 or lower, (meaning they gave up a lot of points but not a lot of yds), their record improves or is the same the next year 73.8% of the time. Southern Miss with their 10.39 Def YPP is the lowest since Eastern Michigan in 2010 (10.34). In 2011 The Eagles went 6-6 improving from a 2-10 record. Overall, teams that have a 13.29 defensive ypp or lower since 1990 have either had a stronger or same record 69.4% of the time.

Teams that allowed a lot of yards but not a lot of points are generally considered bend but don’t break D’s. However as shown below, teams whose defensive ypp was 17.15 or greater the previous year have a weaker or the same record the following year 65.3% of the time. Since 1990 only 35 teams have had a Def YPP over 22.45 including both participants in the 2012 National Championship. Notre Dame (23.92) and Alabama (22.88) combined for a 25-2 record with those incredible YPP’s but LY while still very respectable the combined record fell to 20-6. It should be noted that Alabama has been quite unusual as this is the FOURTH straight year they’ve been among the 4 best Def YPP in the nation.

2013 Defensive YPP

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