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How did my Projected AP Top 10 & Top 25 fare vs Coaches vote?

I have had great success with my Surprise team throughout the years. That is a list of non Top 10 teams I thought were capable of winning the national title. About 10 years ago to help on this article I started trying to forecast what the AP Top 10 would be. Seven years ago I put out my first Projected AP Top 10 in February, SIX MONTHS in advance of the poll and even before spring started. In the first 6 years I have hit 56 of the 60 teams or 93.3%!! This year I projected my AP Top 10 on ESPN Insider way back on February 13th. Here is that projection from February and the coaches poll that was just released this past week.

I also have predicted the AP Top 25 in advance each year as well. I did that this past year on April 15th. Here is my projected teams 11-25 and what the coaches 11-25 teams are.

I am pleased to say I hit on 24 of 25 teams!!! The only miss this year is I had Miss St in the top 25 and they were #26 while I did not have Arizona in the top 25 and they were in it. I will take predicting 24 of 25 teams FOUR MONTHS in advance any time as that is a solid 96%!

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