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Close Wins, Close Losses.

Much like the so-called “Sabermatricians” who have revolutionized the way people analyze baseball, I aim constantly digging deeper into the peripheral statistics to uncover clues about a team that are more telling than mere win-loss records.  One core measurement that I have used through the years is a team’s net number of close wins or close losses in a given year.  Although a team might make it through a season with a remarkable record in close games, it is not a sustainable way to win consistently in college football (or any sport for that matter). Put differently, the best way to guarantee success in close games is to avoid them entirely by beating your opponent soundly.

Based upon my studies, I now have 13 years of data regarding close wins and close losses, which are defined as games decided by a TD or less.  Within each year, I look at a team’s NET close wins and losses.  Thus, if a team has 2 close wins and 6 close losses, they would rate as a -4 in net close losses.

In addition, while I use a touchdown or less as the standard for a close game, I will make adjustments when there are extenuating circumstances. For example, if a team trails by 13 points and completes a “Hail Mary” with no time left to lose by 6 points, they would not receive credit for a close loss and the winning team would not be treated as having a close win.

Over the past 13 years, there have been 341 teams that had 2 NET close losses or more the previous year.  Out of those 341 teams, 76.8% had a stronger record or remained the same in the following year. By looking at the chart below, you can see that teams with 3 or more net close losses were stronger or the same 77.6% of the time over this time span, while those with 4 or more net close losses had an 85.9% mark! 

Massachusetts was the only team last year to have at least 5 net close losses, which makes them the 7th team to reach that mark in the last 7 years.  Here is the complete list of teams with 3 or more net close losses:

In addition, the following teams all finished with 2 net close losses:

Akron
Army
Ball St
Buffalo
BYU
Connecticut
Florida Atlantic
Georgia St
Idaho
Iowa
Kent St
Louisiana Tech
Miami, Fl
Miami, Oh
Oklahoma
Purdue
San Diego St
Stanford
Troy
Tulane
ULM

As expected, a higher number of close wins correlates with a higher percentage of having a worse record in the next year.  One interesting historical note: the only team with a 6 or 7 net close win margin to beat the odds and improve was Kansas State, which went from 10-3 to 11-2 in 2012 despite their penchant for relying on narrow wins in 2011 (take heart Seminole fans!).

Last year, there were 29 teams with 2 or more net close wins.  From this set of teams, 21 saw their record worsen (72.4%), 23 had their record worsen or stay the same (79.3%) and only 6 improved (20.7%). Likewise, there were 15 teams last season with 3 or more net close wins, 12 of which (80%) saw their record decline.  In fact, those 12 teams did not just slip slightly in the standings.  Rather, their combined records fell from a combined 112-44 to 82-72, which works out to an average of 4.8 games per team! Two teams did improve after having +3 net wins:  Central Michigan went from 6-6 to 7-6 and Mississippi State went from 7-6 to 10-3.

Below are the teams that benefited from 3 or more net close wins in 2014:

The following teams had 2 net close wins:

Arizona State
Air Force
Maryland
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Ohio
TCU
ULL
USF
UTEP

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