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Draft Day Party Hangover.

Unlike professional football, college football players are limited generally to 4 years of eligibility, which leads to frequent roster turnover at the collegiate level.  The elite programs in FBS football also tend to lose underclassmen early to the NFL draft.  This has been especially challenging for LSU, although the 2015 draft was less painful for Les Miles than the prior two years.

Logically, college programs with a high number of draftees, particularly those taken in the first few rounds, face the dilemma of replenishing elite level talent.  To gauge how this tends to affect teams in the upcoming year, I have researched this topic over the past 18 years to develop my “Draft Day Party Hangover” statistics.  Those of you who have purchased the magazine are likely aware that I have published my findings on page 10.

In this system, I award the following point totals to a team based upon the level of pick:

• 1st Round- 7 points
• 2nd Round- 5
• 3rd Round- 4
• 4th Round- 3
• 5th Round- 2
• 6th Round- 1
• 7th Round- 1.

Two items of quick note regarding this methodology:

• Since 1st round picks are the true cream of the crop, they are awarded two more points than their second round counterparts
• Beyond the 5th round, there has not been much difference in the level of production so 6th and 7th rounders are awarded one point each.

Over the past 18 years of research, this study has yielded the following findings:

Teams with 12 or more points - Weaker or same record 239 of 313 (76.4%)
Teams with 24 or more points - Weaker or same record 73 of 88 (83.0%)
Teams with 35 or more points - Weaker record 15 of 19 (78.9%)

Last year, there were 11 teams on the list of programs that had accumulated 12 or more points.  Unsurprisingly, 10 of the 11 teams had a weaker record and only one team, Ohio State, improved its record.  In 2015, the list has grown significantly to include a whopping 28 teams.

One thing I have pointed out in past seasons is that the National Champion always has a great shot at appearing on this lists, which complicates the task of defending the title.  In the past 18 years, 15 of the National Champions have earned 12 or more points in the draft the previous year. The exceptions were in 2006 (Florida, 7 pts), 2008 (Florida, 11 pts) and 2010 (Auburn, 7 pts).

Last year, Ohio State was perceived as a young team that was talented, but likely a year away from contending from the National Championship.  Although the Buckeyes were able to claim the title without suffering too much attrition to the NFL (14 players lost), they will not be as lucky next year, as the mock draft boards are already replete with names from the Ohio State roster.  Look for the Buckeyes to be at or near the top of this list in 2016.

Points Lost in the NFL Draft

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