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NFL Close Wins, Close Losses.

This is going to be a great week here at Phil Steele Publications with the Start of the College Football season. Today we will take a look at NFL- Close Wins, Close Losses. Then check back on Tuesday as we will talk about the Updated Experience Chart pg. 29 in the 2015 College Football Preview. On Wednesday we will take a look at Phil Steele’s Projected stats for the 2015 Season found on pg. 43 in the 2015 College Football Preview. Finally Thursday the start of College Football regular season.

On August 6th, I posted an article that analyzed the tendencies of college football teams to improve or worsen after a season with a large number of close wins or close losses.  As I explained in that article, my research has shown that winning close games is not a sustainable way to win consistently in college football (or any sport for that matter).   Put differently, the best way to guarantee success in close games is to avoid them entirely by beating your opponent soundly.

Based upon my studies, I now have 8 years of data regarding close wins and close losses in the NFL, which are defined as games decided by a TD or less.  Within each year, I look at a team’s NET close wins and losses.  Thus, if a team has 2 close wins and 6 close losses, they would rate as a -4 in net close losses.

In addition, while I use a touchdown or less as the standard for a close game, I will make adjustments when there are extenuating circumstances. For example, if a team trails by 13 points and completes a “Hail Mary” with no time left to lose by 6 points, they would not receive credit for a close loss and the winning team would not be treated as having a close win.

Since I started studying this topic in 2006, there have been 70 teams that were -2 or more net close wins (more close losses than wins). Although I started using -2 or more net wins, the results weren't overly illustrative in the NFL, so I changed the baseline to -3 or more. In the last 8 seasons, two teams actually had -7 net close games (including Houston LY) and both teams were +7 wins the following year. This year Tampa Bay joins that club so Buccaneer fans should expect a better 2015 than last year.
           
When looking at teams that were +2 net close games (more close wins than losses), the expected results were quite similar to my college findings and, as a result, I have not needed to adjust the relevant number.  Looking back to 2006, this has occurred 78 times with the team's record weakening 50 times (64.1%) while being weaker or the same 82.1% of the time. Last season, the top total from 2014 was +4 net close wins but this year both Detroit and Green Bay come in with +5 net close wins. As you can see, that has only occurred 7 times in 8 seasons with 6 teams seeing their record fall, including each of the last four seasons with an average of 6.5 wins/season!

When you look at both categories, the success rate naturally climbs even further once you start examining teams with +4 or -4 net close games.  Combined, it has happened 32 times with the teams record moving as expected 25 times (78.1%) and moving as expected or staying the same 28 times (87.5%).

Here is the precise breakdown for teams with a positive net close win total over the past 9 years and their performance in the following year:

 This season, the following teams fall into this category:

1. Detroit +5
2. Green Bay +5
3. Denver +4
4. San Francisco +3
5. San Diego +3
6. Dallas +3
7. Cincinnati +3
8. Arizona +3
9. New England +2
10. Indianapolis +2
11. Carolina +2

Looking again at teams with net close losses, here are the results at each level since 2006:

This season, the following teams fall into this category:

1. Tampa Bay -7
2. Chicago -4
3. New York Giants -3
4. New York Jets -3
5. Oakland -3
6. Tennessee -3

2015 College & Pro Football Previews
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