Spring Blog • February 17, 2015

When is 390 yds better than 460 yds?

Each and every Saturday throughout the football season as I’m watching my bank of TV’s I probably hear announcers talking about a teams offensive ranking 500 times a day. It’s simple as all you do is take their yards per game average and rank the teams. So in reality if your favorite team played at home versus the worst FCS team it counts the same as if your played last years #1 defense, Clemson, at Death Valley! It doesn’t seem right.

 

            As you know by reading the blog or as an “Inside the Pressbox” customer my unit rankings are based on the competition each team has played. While that is the most accurate method another great and simple barometer is to check out the TEAM PAGES at Philsteele.com. By looking at the game by game stats under “Off vs Foe Def” this takes into account how your teams offense did versus the average performance of the defense. Look at Navy’s 2014 game by game stats.

 

Vs Ohio St the Navy offense had: 390 yds, that was 51 yards OVER what OSU normally allowed LY

Vs WKU    the Navy offense had: 467 yds, that was 47 yards UNDER what WKU allowed per game LY

So despite gaining more yards: +77 (467-390) in the WKU game the Ohio St performance was much more impressive as they were +51 yds vs OSU and -47 yds vs WKU.

 

AUBURN +15 SPOTS

The chart below gives you a teams offensive strength based on their performance versus their opponents average. On the chart you’ll see a few quick surprises. Auburn is #2 in my rankings but the NCAA has them at #17.  The Tigers played a pair of my top 3 defenses in Ole Miss and Alabama and SIX more teams that were ranked in my top 26 at game time. Plus, the 4 non-top 26 teams were Texas A&M (#44), La Tech (#51), San Jose St (#62) and South Carolina (#69). WOW!

 

WASHINGTON -34 SPOTS

Again by looking at the chart below you can see that the Washington Huskies are ranked #111 gaining 58 ypg less then what their opponents allowed on average. The NCAA ranking for UW’s offense is #74. Let’s look at the Washington TEAM PAGE at PhilSteele.com and I’ll point out the 3 major discrepancies. The Huskies totaled 1343 yds vs Illinois, Colorado and Washington St, which averages to an impressive 448 ypg. BUT, when UW faced those 3 teams their defenses were ranked #107, #71 and #84 and the 448 ypg gained was actually 19 YPG UNDER what they normally allow.

 

Check out if your favorite teams were well above their opponents average (12 teams were 100 ypg or more over) or below their average (10 teams were 100 ypg or more under).

 

Rank Team Average
1 BAYLOR 168.3
2 AUBURN 143.9
3 OREGON 142.2
4 OHIO ST 139.0
5 MISS ST 138.7
6 MARSHALL 137.5
7 EAST CAROLINA 136.1
8 W KENTUCKY 125.6
9 TCU 123.9
10 GEORGIA TECH 107.2
11 TEXAS TECH 106.8
12 MICHIGAN ST 104.8
13 ALABAMA 99.3
14 BOISE ST 88.9
15 CINCINNATI 87.3
16 CALIFORNIA 84.9
17 WEST VIRGINIA 83.5
18 GEORGIA 82.9
19 WASH ST 82.8
20 FLORIDA ST 82.1
21 Georgia Southern 81.0
22 NOTRE DAME 75.6
23 WISCONSIN 75.3
24 S CAROLINA 72.5
25 UCLA 71.3
26 N CAROLINA 69.1
27 ARKANSAS ST 67.9
28 NEBRASKA 67.2
29 OKLAHOMA 66.9
30 BYU 66.7
31 TEXAS A&M 63.9
32 PITTSBURGH 63.4
33 Appalachian St 63.3
34 COLORADO ST 55.5
35 USC 51.3
36 TOLEDO 48.1
37 MIAMI FLA 38.8
38 ARIZONA 37.6
39 NC STATE 35.5
40 Old Dominion 35.1
41 MISSISSIPPI 29.5
42 LOUISVILLE 23.4
43 BOWLING GREEN 22.0
44 NAVY 20.4
45 INDIANA 19.3
46 ARIZONA ST 17.9
47 IDAHO 17.9
48 UAB Ala Birm 16.9
49 TULSA 13.6
50 BUFFALO 13.5
51 RUTGERS 13.4
52 MIDDLE TENN ST 12.8
53 N ILLINOIS 12.3
54 MEMPHIS 12.2
55 Mass 11.2
56 BOSTON COLL 8.9
57 COLORADO 8.8
58 HOUSTON 5.3
59 TENNESSEE 4.4
60 W MICHIGAN 4.3
61 NEW MEXICO ST 4.3
62 Texas St 1.2
63 ARKANSAS -0.5
64 UL LAFAYETTE -2.0
65 KANSAS ST -3.7
66 RICE -5.2
67 IOWA -6.9
68 LSU -8.5
69 VIRGINIA -10.3
70 KENTUCKY -10.4
71 CLEMSON -10.4
72 LOUISIANA TECH -11.1
73 MINNESOTA -11.1
74 ILLINOIS -11.5
75 MISSOURI -11.7
76 NEW MEXICO -11.8
77 UNLV -14.8
78 DUKE -14.8
79 IOWA ST -15.5
80 C MICHIGAN -18.3
81 MIAMI (OH) -18.3
82 MARYLAND -19.9
83 S MISS -20.2
84 NORTHWESTERN -20.6
85 UCF -22.0
86 AIR FORCE -22.2
87 SAN JOSE ST -22.3
88 WYOMING -24.2
89 FLORIDA -27.3
90 VIRGINIA TECH -27.9
91 FRESNO ST -28.4
92 Georgia St -29.1
93 OREGON ST -30.6
94 NEVADA -31.2
95 SYRACUSE -34.4
96 PURDUE -35.2
97 UTAH ST -40.0
98 OHIO U -41.1
99 OKLAHOMA ST -42.7
100 TULANE -45.8
101 STANFORD -46.4
102 SAN DIEGO ST -47.2
103 SOUTH ALABAMA -48.1
104 UTAH -48.9
105 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -50.0
106 PENN ST -51.2
107 MICHIGAN -52.8
108 AKRON -55.1
109 TROY ST -55.2
110 HAWAII -56.0
111 WASHINGTON -58.3
112 BALL STATE -60.4
113 ULM -68.9
114 TEXAS -75.1
115 ARMY -76.3
116 TEMPLE -77.5
117 UTEP -86.5
118 KENT ST -97.8
119 KANSAS -100.7
120 VANDERBILT -103.9
121 NORTH TEXAS -105.1
122 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -105.3
123 SOUTH FLORIDA -108.0
124 Eastern Michigan -117.0
125 CONNECTICUT -118.4
126 SMU -124.9
127 UTSA -136.3
128 WAKE FOREST -168.2