Spring Blog • June 8, 2015

 

 

Preseason Consensus Top 128 Teams.

Right after my magazine went to the press I started checking out other magazines and web sites for their Top 128’s for 2015. So far I have found 6 of them for this year. Let me get started off on a tangent and that is that people labeling these May/June predictions as “Way Too Early”. I have been writing a college football magazine for over 20 years. I have no problem putting out my forecasts in May or June. The schedules are set, the rosters are set, we know all the key returnees and the draft choices. There is very little that changes during the summer months. It is not way too early. You pretty much know right now what the teams will be like when camp opens in August with very few exceptions. Lets look at last year as an example. Ohio St lost Braxton Miller in August. Ohio St had been the preseason pick to win the Big Ten but upon hearing that news, there was a revote and Michigan St became the favorite. Ohio St still ended up winning the Big Ten and by the way, also the national title, so that late news and correction was actually not as good as the original forecast.

This year I have found 6 Top 128’s so far and here are the sources.

ESPN FPI – The fine folks over at ESPN Stats and Info have their own power rating set called the FPI and there is a lot of solid logic put into these. They do not always conform with Conventional Wisdom, and also this year do not conform with the magazines own Top 25. This is the ESPN Magazines equivalent of my Power Poll. They have an interesting #4 in LSU. Other teams of note would be Oklahoma at #15, Auburn #18, Miami Florida #29 and Appalachian St #53. This is on page 136 of their 136 page magazine. Their two biggest differences from the average rank are that they have Colorado St at #102 (average rank 76.33) and they have Appalachian St at #53 (average rank #82.2).

Lindy’s – Lindy’s magazine has been around longer than mine and they have their top 128 listed on page 33 of their 232 page magazine. Some interesting ranking’s from Lindy’s list would be Notre Dame at #7, Stanford #26, Arkansas #27, Ole Miss #28 and Miami Florida #54. Their two biggest differences from the rest of the pack both involve MAC teams. Bowling Green comes in with an average rank of 79 and Ball St at an average rank of 88. Lindy’s has Bowling Green at a lofty #45 and Ball St at a very low #119 (differences of 34 and 31 spots).

Athlon – Athlon is another magazine that has been out longer than mine. They have their Top 128 on page 46 of their 216 page national magazine. The most interesting thing about their top 128 is that it is in line with what most people have. There is nothing controversial about their top 25 except they have USC at #6 and most people are picking Oregon which they have at #8. Emphasizing this point is that the biggest differences are Kent St which they have at #119 and their average rank is #104 (15 spot difference) and Massachusetts which they rank at #92 and their average rank is #107 (also a 15 spot difference).

College Football News (cfn.scout.com) was actually the first to come out with a top 128 which they did back in March and I applaud them for that. They have UCLA at #4, LSU at #7 and Arizona at #37. The biggest differences they have from the rest of the pack are South Carolina and Marshall. They rate South Carolina #14 in the country while their average rank is just #32. At the other end they have Marshall #83 and the Herd have an average rank of 60.

Fremeau Efficiency Index – Brian Fremeau produces a college football rating system based on game efficiency. He comes up with an FEI rating for each team which this year goes from a high of .279 to a low of -.291 for the 128 teams. He has Florida St at #7, Clemson at #21, Ball St at #51 and Bowling Green at #77 (see Lindy’s). His biggest differences are the aforementioned Ball St (37 spots off average rank) and Kentucky which they have at #85 and their average rank is #56.

Bill Connelly S&P+ Ratings – Bill and Brian Fremeau have produced the ratings for College Football Outsiders over the years and they have their own unique sets of power ratings. Bill put his S&P+ Ratings up on SB Nation on May 20th and they were different enough from the FEI’s to post them both. Ole Miss at #6, and Oklahoma at #10 were noteworthy. His teams with the biggest difference were Louisiana Tech at #50 (average rank #71) with Houston at #85 (average #63) and Appalachian St at #103 (average rank #83).

Here is the complete listing of how each of the six sites/magazines ranks the top 128 teams. I then ranked them by the composite average and assigned a power rating. For the power rating I just calculated a difference of roughly 42 points from the best to the worst college football team and used the average ranking as the basis for that power ratings.

Preseason Consensus Top 128 Teams

  2015 TOP 128 TEAMS           CFB NEWS    
RANK (Conf Rank) Lindy ESPN Athlon S&P + FEI cfn.scout.com AVG Rank POWER RATING
1 OHIO ST (1) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1.17 119.61
2 ALABAMA (1) 3 2 2 1 2 3 2.17 119.28
3 OREGON (1) 4 6 8 4 3 8 5.50 118.17
4 BAYLOR (1) 5 5 3 14 4 2 5.50 118.17
5 TCU (2) 2 3 5 18 9 5 7.00 117.67
6 GEORGIA  (2) 10 9 10 3 5 12 8.17 117.28
7 MICHIGAN ST (2) 6 16 7 9 10 9 9.50 116.84
8 LSU (3) 13 4 15 8 11 7 9.67 116.78
9 NOTRE DAME (1) 7 7 12 16 8 10 10.00 116.67
10 USC (2) 11 13 6 13 15 6 10.67 116.45
11 AUBURN (4) 8 18 4 5 19 15 11.50 116.17
12 UCLA (3) 20 12 23 7 6 4 12.00 116.00
13 FLORIDA ST (1) 12 21 9 17 7 11 12.83 115.73
14 MISSISSIPPI (5) 28 8 11 6 12 19 14.00 115.34
15 CLEMSON (2) 9 19 14 15 21 13 15.17 114.95
16 OKLAHOMA (3) 21 15 17 10 20 18 16.83 114.39
17 ARIZONA ST (4) 14 20 13 24 14 22 17.83 114.06
18 ARKANSAS (6) 27 10 16 12 28 17 18.33 113.90
19 GEORGIA TECH (3) 15 23 18 19 16 21 18.67 113.78
20 TENNESSEE (7) 17 14 22 20 29 16 19.67 113.45
21 STANFORD (5) 26 17 24 11 13 30 20.17 113.28
22 TEXAS A&M (8) 23 11 20 22 26 26 21.33 112.90
23 WISCONSIN (3) 16 34 19 25 22 20 22.67 112.45
24 MISSOURI (9) 25 24 27 23 17 23 23.17 112.29
25 BOISE ST (1) 22 31 25 27 18 31 25.67 111.45
26 MISS ST (10) 31 22 21 21 34 29 26.33 111.23
27 OKLAHOMA ST (4) 18 30 28 43 30 24 28.83 110.40
28 VIRGINIA TECH (4) 24 26 35 26 24 39 29.00 110.34
29 ARIZONA (6) 19 32 30 34 31 37 30.50 109.84
30 FLORIDA  (11) 38 28 26 29 40 25 31.00 109.68
31 MICHIGAN (4) 29 25 34 35 36 27 31.00 109.68
32 NEBRASKA (5) 30 41 29 30 32 28 31.67 109.46
33 S CAROLINA (12) 49 40 37 31 23 14 32.33 109.23
34 UTAH (7) 32 38 31 39 27 36 33.83 108.73
35 KANSAS ST (5) 43 39 44 33 25 32 36.00 108.01
36 LOUISVILLE (5) 35 44 38 32 35 33 36.17 107.96
37 TEXAS (6) 34 27 33 36 58 34 37.00 107.68
38 W VIRGINIA (7) 35 33 36 40 42 38 37.33 107.57
39 PENN ST (6) 41 37 32 37 39 45 38.50 107.18
40 MIAMI FL (6) 54 29 43 28 43 46 40.50 106.51
41 N CAROLINA (7) 37 35 42 44 50 42 41.67 106.13
42 NC STATE (8) 33 42 39 48 65 35 43.67 105.46
43 BYU (2) 46 45 49 45 33 53 45.17 104.96
44 PITTSBURGH (9) 53 43 41 38 41 56 45.33 104.90
45 MINNESOTA (7) 50 54 45 42 48 43 47.00 104.35
46 CINCINNATI (1) 42 52 40 47 57 48 47.67 104.13
47 CALIFORNIA (8) 44 36 47 51 71 41 48.33 103.91
48 DUKE (10) 39 56 52 54 47 52 50.00 103.35
49 WASHINGTON (9) 56 46 46 55 53 44 50.00 103.35
50 TEXAS TECH (8) 47 47 48 53 60 59 52.33 102.57
51 IOWA (8) 48 64 53 57 52 47 53.50 102.18
52 KENTUCKY (13) 59 48 55 52 85 40 56.50 101.19
53 UCF (2) 52 73 63 60 45 51 57.33 100.91
54 VIRGINIA (11) 63 55 61 46 74 50 58.17 100.63
55 UTAH ST (2) 65 58 51 59 37 79 58.17 100.63
56 TEMPLE (3) 68 50 62 64 46 66 59.33 100.24
57 MARSHALL (1) 81 49 70 41 38 83 60.33 99.91
58 NORTHWESTERN (9) 69 68 58 62 56 49 60.33 99.91
59 BOSTON COLLEGE (12) 57 84 56 49 73 58 62.83 99.08
60 MEMPHIS (4) 40 66 59 68 66 78 62.83 99.08
61 HOUSTON (5) 55 70 50 85 54 65 63.17 98.97
62 NAVY (6) 62 82 54 58 61 68 64.17 98.63
63 W KENTUCKY (2) 74 57 69 61 44 80 64.17 98.63
64 WASHINGTON ST (10) 60 59 66 66 79 69 66.50 97.86
65 N ILLINOIS (1) 51 71 80 78 49 72 66.83 97.74
66 MARYLAND (10) 61 78 57 56 89 62 67.17 97.63
67 ILLINOIS (11) 66 62 64 63 82 67 67.33 97.58
68 TOLEDO (2) 72 72 75 69 55 71 69.00 97.02
69 OREGON ST (11) 64 81 73 70 72 55 69.17 96.97
70 SAN DIEGO ST (3) 71 83 68 77 68 54 70.17 96.63
71 VANDERBILT (14) 76 51 79 83 76 57 70.33 96.58
72 LA TECH (3) 83 60 86 50 63 84 71.00 96.36
73 COLORADO (12) 67 65 67 75 94 61 71.50 96.19
74 INDIANA (12) 70 74 60 81 83 63 71.83 96.08
75 E CAROLINA (7) 77 79 72 80 62 77 74.50 95.19
76 RUTGERS (13) 58 80 65 79 97 70 74.83 95.08
77 GEORGIA SOUTHERN (1) 93 63 77 67 59 97 76.00 94.69
78 ARKANSAS ST (2) 86 67 76 71 70 88 76.33 94.58
79 COLORADO ST (4) 75 102 71 72 64 74 76.33 94.58
80 PURDUE (14) 79 69 84 74 95 60 76.83 94.41
81 W MICHIGAN (3) 96 61 81 65 67 96 77.67 94.14
82 SYRACUSE (13) 73 75 85 73 86 75 77.83 94.08
83 IOWA ST (9) 80 86 74 86 78 64 78.00 94.03
84 BOWLING GREEN (4) 45 93 78 94 77 87 79.00 93.69
85 WAKE FOREST (14) 78 77 82 89 81 76 80.50 93.19
86 APPALACHIN ST (3) 85 53 90 103 69 93 82.17 92.64
87 AIR FORCE (5) 87 100 83 76 87 82 85.83 91.42
88 NEVADA (6) 107 91 91 82 75 73 86.50 91.20
89 BALL ST (5) 119 76 94 100 51 90 88.33 90.59
90 FRESNO ST (7) 84 88 101 93 84 81 88.50 90.53
91 MIDDLE TENN (4) 90 85 88 87 93 94 89.50 90.20
92 LOUISIANA (4) 95 95 87 84 88 101 91.67 89.48
93 RICE (5) 91 96 89 88 102 95 93.50 88.86
94 OHIO (6) 92 94 98 96 103 86 94.83 88.42
95 USF (8) 88 101 99 90 114 89 96.83 87.75
96 C MICHIGAN (7) 89 99 111 91 98 98 97.67 87.48
97 TULSA (9) 114 89 106 106 80 91 97.67 87.48
98 TULANE (10) 102 97 104 92 90 102 97.83 87.42
99 SAN JOSE ST (8) 97 90 110 105 92 110 100.67 86.48
100 KANSAS (10) 82 113 103 95 127 85 100.83 86.42
101 FLORIDA INT (6) 98 87 112 107 96 114 102.33 85.92
102 TEXAS ST (5) 101 92 98 109 108 109 102.83 85.76
103 NEW MEXICO (9) 103 105 96 104 110 103 103.50 85.53
104 KENT ST (8) 105 104 119 97 91 106 103.67 85.48
105 UTEP (7) 94 111 100 99 115 105 104.00 85.37
106 FLORIDA ATLANTIC (8) 109 108 107 101 105 111 106.83 84.42
107 AKRON (9) 106 115 97 112 113 100 107.17 84.31
108 MASSACHUSETTS (10) 115 98 92 119 104 115 107.17 84.31
109 CONNECTICUT (11) 111 118 109 114 101 92 107.50 84.20
110 ULM (6) 117 106 115 102 99 108 107.83 84.09
111 OLD DOMINION (9) 104 103 113 110 109 112 108.50 83.87
112 WYOMING (10) 99 121 95 115 122 104 109.33 83.59
113 BUFFALO (11) 100 120 105 122 106 107 110.00 83.37
114 SOUTH ALABAMA (7) 108 114 108 98 116 117 110.17 83.31
115 SMU (12) 112 110 102 117 112 116 111.50 82.87
116 N TEXAS (10) 110 109 117 125 111 99 111.83 82.76
117 S MISS (11) 113 107 116 108 119 113 112.67 82.48
118 HAWAII (11) 120 112 114 118 100 119 113.83 82.09
119 MIAMI OH (12) 121 122 121 113 121 120 119.67 80.15
120 UNLV (12) 118 125 122 123 117 121 121.00 79.71
121 ARMY (3) 116 127 120 126 120 118 121.17 79.65
122 GEORGIA ST (8) 126 117 126 111 123 125 121.33 79.60
123 UTSA (12) 122 119 123 121 126 122 122.17 79.32
124 N MEXICO ST (9) 127 116 124 127 118 124 122.67 79.15
125 CHARLOTTE (13) 128 126 128 120 107 128 122.83 79.10
126 IDAHO (10) 123 124 125 116 125 126 123.17 78.99
127 TROY (11) 124 123 118 124 124 127 123.33 78.93
128 E MICHIGAN (13) 125 128 127 128 128 123 126.50 77.88

The trucks should be arriving early this week with the magazines and as soon as they back the truck in we will begin shipping them out. Also they will be up on iTunes and Google Play very shortly and I will tweet out as soon as they are. I will then have a blog which compares and contrasts how my Power Poll ranked teams vs the average magazine which will give you teams that I feel are over or under rated.

 

2015 College Football Preview Available Shortly on iTunes!


This year’s version will be available shortly!
1). It will be available WEEKS before the magazine hits the newsstands on July 1st! I would expect it up at the LATEST by early next week and will tweet it out @philsteele042 the second it is up.

2). It’s easy to use and works perfectly for both the iPhone and iPad. The download process may take up to 10-15 minutes but that’s because we have 352 pages with jampacked information!

3). No bugs, no issues, take it with you where ever you go!

4). Non-U.S. Customers: The magazine will not be on the newsstands internationally, the only way to get the 2015 College Football Preview is to order through our offices and pay at least $35 (includes S&H) or get it on iTunes  for just $9.99.

5). It’s only $9.99! On the newsstand, the magazine will cost you $12.99.

Don’t wait three weeks until the magazine hits the newsstands.
Coming Soon to both iPad and Google Play!

Please note: after downloading and purchasing the App, please make sure you search for 2015 if the old 2014 cover/edition comes up on your screen.